Got them from Commsec. Was last year's figures.
Didn't bother opening up their latest annual report so maybe shouldn't comment, but yea... it's not going to double every couple of years and take over the world as its share price growth suggests though.
I remember taking a keen interest on BKL when it plunged down to $20 .
There seemed to be so many new competitors like swisse that i got cold feet
and before long it was $26. Ive mised the boat i thought at the time
Last year's figures are so... well, last year.
NPAT = $46.6 was about 70% higher than last year. It just needs to grow at this rate for a year or two and the market cap isn't that demanding.
Obviously the growth isn't a foregone conclusion... but the path there is certainly conceivable and realistic.
At $118 today... the future does look glorious.
But as with all dreams, any cloudy skies and it's abandon ship.
----
On a more serious note... there is just too much that could go wrong here. Doesn't mean it will go wrong, but chances are it will.
One is if BKL were to do similarly well next year as it does last year... its price won't remain where it is but will probably double. Which is a good thing.
But how do you double your sales? How do you cater for the increased in volumes?
Can't crank the current plants 24/7 forever. You have to make investments. New sites, new PPE, new employees, new sales team and international offices and staff.
These costs money, will take a few points from the bottom line for sure.
Then if the Chinese economy tank... I don't know.. maybe they can convince the Chinese that Blackmores can be taken with alcohol.
But yea, if new competitors get into the game; if current competitors get their act together; if Chinese-owned and Chinese-based herbal and supplement companies with secret, lost, recipes and well funded labs opens up... You do realise that the Chinese/Asians have been playing with these supplements and herbal remedies for centuries right?
Perfectly logical arguments. In conclusion... never buy anything that involves the future.
Perfectly logical arguments. In conclusion... never buy anything that involves the future.
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams they fade and die.
Fortune's always hiding,
I've looked everywhere,
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.
The gut feeling tells me in tears. Well, then again, that's already happened... I looked at this around $20 last year.Where does this end?
Anywho... if BKL hit similar sales growth again next year, its price will probably hit $200. I haven't look at the company so I can't really gauge if that's likely or not... probably it is... will it still be likely in a few years time? Well it hasn't been able to in the past few decades... maybe things have changed for good?
Where does this end?
The gut feeling tells me in tears. Well, then again, that's already happened... I looked at this around $20 last year.
That was my thoughts from the outside looking in.I looked at it at $40m but didn't really follow through with the research. Have a friend who's in the vitamin business in HK and it's a highly competitive category. But I guess the rising tide was very strong...
That was my thoughts from the outside looking in.
There's a common mistake in valuation and you often can pick up on it when looking across entire sectors, I think Aswath Damodaran calls it the "Macro Delusion" in which people that are looking (and also those on the inside) at rapidly growing industries, forget that over-confidence is contagious, and cumulatively the whole industry over-estimates future returns.
Interesting to see if it applies here. I notice Blackmores isn't the super-bullish company on China's prospects in this space.
Blackmores floated on the ASX 30 years ago, and for most of that time the company sold 3000 tubs of vitamin E cream a month. In November 2015 the company sold 800,000 tubs of vitamin E cream.
I have no idea what one does with vitamin E cream but this stat is pretty amazing.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/blackmo...-china-scramble-20151201-glcdee#ixzz3t2yiKc9U
an 11.9% value-added tax has been levied on foreign goods purchased via foreign websites, where apparently much of Murray Goulburn's products are sold to China. What is a little more concerning is one paragraph I have found suggesting that under the changes, health foods will require regulatory approval which may cost up to $200k per item and can take up to four years.
Unfortunately, I missed the dumping and a quick 15% profit.
Traded it... from the open!And out for a tiny profit. The action is finished and will flatten off back to about 165, imo.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?