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Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading thread

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still holding sells (bitmex) xbt/btc
after the infamous dimple fake out, we appear to have several markers of trending south, in the larger swingdown we probably need to make siginificant lower lows to fulfill a path of bias and sentiment reversal before a decent "opportunity" to bid comes along

39575 now offers the level to protect for STO positions
anecdotally socmed has gone quiet again, all the chatty hodl heros have disappeared yet the told-you-so negative trolls have not come into
the sunlight to bloat, that adds to the idea we are in a balanced state, thus far, as we see in standard congestion zone,
.....as price prints this zone favours the open sells
www.tradingview.com

Chart Image

www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
 
only a dumbarse leaves trades open on platform that cannot transact over the weekend
so, um, yep done that, enough evidence to suggest to me that closing STO's maybe dumb too, given the structure built todate
the risk favours the trend down than it does the trend up,
when Musk did the socmed release of 1.5BB long $btc it was inline with
what trend was doing (albeit in a coiling zone), news now is just a likely to be inline with trend down

that idea aside, looking at structure alone, lower prices are supported for a lower low daily basis, keeping in mind that if there are whales
at that nice round 30k level then we know a truckload of stops are there for the hitting

we also know that the fake out move of the both the downline break (when's a triangle not a triangle?!?!)
(also the centreline of the expanded downchannel) was a Mcguffin and the
pimple blow-out that faded a lot of small accounts into thinking they had the hodl dream come true, they got faded

only genuine manias can create mini Mcguffins like this as we see thru the socmed hail-the-hodl hype following the "triangle" break-out
the whole mania is a Mcguffin
crypto currencies are here to stay, stretched valuations are not

www.tradingview.com

Chart Image

www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
 
kicking out of this minor channel would kick me out too, but maybe not into longs, the best lift thus far since the pimple rotation

www.tradingview.com

Chart Image

www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
 
This story highlights just how many crazy bunnies are being hooked into trading crypto BS.

I think if one is a few watts brighter than these people and a couple of degrees shrewder you could make an absolute killing at their expense. The market seems rife with stories and boosts. If one is the booster and story teller you'll make a quid.

On the big picture however I still wonder about
1) The overall stability of any of the crypto currencies. Could one lose everything because you can't even trade out succesfully ?
2) What could be the impact on the overall financial system if these games go belly up. ?How exposed are the banks and other financial institutions ?

www.theguardian.com

‘I put my life savings in crypto’: how a generation of amateurs got hooked on high-risk trading

Online trading apps are drawing in novice investors willing to risk everything on volatile stocks. Do they really know what they’re doing?
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Familiar with the gold rush lesson basilio?

In a gold rush, you don't make money finding gold, you make it selling shovels ;)
 
basilio said:
This story highlights just how many crazy bunnies are being hooked into trading crypto BS.

I think if one is a few watts brighter than these people and a couple of degrees shrewder you could make an absolute killing at their expense. The market seems rife with stories and boosts. If one is the booster and story teller you'll make a quid.

On the big picture however I still wonder about
1) The overall stability of any of the crypto currencies. Could one lose everything because you can't even trade out succesfully ?
2) What could be the impact on the overall financial system if these games go belly up. ?How exposed are the banks and other financial institutions ?

www.theguardian.com

‘I put my life savings in crypto’: how a generation of amateurs got hooked on high-risk trading

Online trading apps are drawing in novice investors willing to risk everything on volatile stocks. Do they really know what they’re doing?
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Thanks @basilio . I would generally agree with your assessment of bitcoin and the current traders, although the article from the Guardian does segue in to the soft left useful idiot mantra peddled by the menopausal women, men and others who haunt that poverty of thought masthead.

Anyone in crypto is gambling, this is good, as long as it does not become a problem. The fey examples in the article would be such, although they are young enough to recover. Winners never seem to be tagged as problem gamblers.

I will probably have a go at crypto, but not yet, I only buy or trade long and it does not look good for long plays atm.

Bitcoin does seem to follow TA concepts rather than fundamental, so there is hope for us hungry, limping, wounded and decrepit old lions yet.

I am more excited by ETH as a platform than BTC btw.

gg
 
Gambling it may be, but one thing it does not have yet is managed manipilation by central banks like in most other markets. As such we have seen genuine price discovery and wild ebbs and flows bought about social mood of participants. The EW price chart is very clean and easy to count, unlike the difficult to analyze and skewed wavecounts in the indices for example.
 
China just outlawed mining it, and the hashrate (and value) have plummeted as a result. So, another dip to buy IMHO.


Reference the gold & shovels analogy earlier: There's a reason why I'm so bullish on RIOT and focus on it rather than the currencies directly. Same goes for semiconductors/microchips. I have stacks of SOXL.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Bitcoin does seem to follow TA concepts rather than fundamental....
Click to expand...
this is of course, incorrect
btc adheres to fundamentals in the same way new zealand bunji jumping only hits value when it's been
streeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetched
and the sucker thinks they've reach a life moment at the end of the rope, hung out to dry

so, fundamentally, that's how this game works, like the gold game, only more lemmings

choice! eh bro!
 
Technical analysis in this market is a fool's errand at the best of times. With crypto, it's madness.
 
over9k said:
Technical analysis in this market is a fool's errand at the best of times. With crypto, it's madness.
Click to expand...

I think we should agree that crypto trading is just unregulated gambling. The stock market at least has the premise of real companies producing real products and services. The buying selling and betting against shares at least has an economic base even if much of the trading is speculative and essentially a gamble.

So in the gambling scenario of crypto trading there will be winners and losers with a cut in the middle for the commissions and the structures that facilitate the trading. The shovel sellers :)

But unlike gold booms there is no gold - just transfers of assets and liabilities.

If the only issue was the financial health of the participants then fair enough. My reservations are about the potential of this totally unregulated huge gambling game to undermine the financial structures that support the rest of the economy both in business and society.
 
basilio said:
But unlike gold booms there is no gold - just transfers of assets and liabilities.

If the only issue was the financial health of the participants then fair enough. My reservations are about the potential of this totally unregulated huge gambling game to undermine the financial structures that support the rest of the economy both in business and society.
Click to expand...
I was sitting at the bar last night with a professor of history up here from Victoria who was at pains to point out two things, no three.

That he had left Victoria on a round Australia trip some months ago and did not have the plague.

Crypto reminded him of the Children's Crusade whereby the protagonists lost both heaven and earth.

I doubt if a bust in crypto will affect the markets generally.

gg
 
over9k said:
I said in this market. Seems like a subtle distinction, but it wasn't.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. Personally however I have found BTC one of the better instruments to trade using TA.
Very clear patterns
especially compared to the indices in the last 10 years that have become managed/manipulated by central banks.
The recent peak and selloff was a perfect TA sell setup
 
Interesting analysis of the current Crypto currency boom and many of the players.

Opinion: Why bitcoin’s bust and the ‘crypto cult’ threaten all investors​

Last Updated: May 22, 2021 at 11:15 a.m. ET First Published: May 19, 2021 at 12:23 p.m. ET
By

Lawrence A. Cunningham​

Cryptocurrency’s huge spikes and setbacks unsettle traditional stock and bond markets​

Traders who have been coordinating on social media to promote stratospheric prices in meme stocks, such as GameStop GME, -6.29%, and cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin BTCUSD, 1.24% and dogecoin DOGEUSD, -0.83% — what exactly are they doing?

They are not day trading, but “holding on for dear life,” (HODL) as the group describes it. They are not indexing, because they view the entire stock market as corrupt. They are certainly not quality investors, as their process defies financial analysis.

While indexers, day traders, and stock pickers each have a distinctive approach, all are conscious and diligent participants in a traditional market. The same is even true of shareholder activists, who may demand changes, from board composition to dividend policy, but accept the corporate setting and related measures of returns. Others use their position as shareholders to advocate social causes, from consumer protection to workforce diversity, but purpose is clearly stated and proposals formally made, often in a target company’s proxy statement.
Most of today’s devotees of meme stocks and crypto operate outside any such familiar forms of market behavior or investing theory. Rather, they protest against Wall Street capitalism, revel in disruptive poisoning of markets, or rejoice at creating the fantasy of an alternate reality.

The behavior of most of these participants can best be explained by a nascent branch of economics called “identity economics.” Pioneered in a 2010 book of the same name by George Akerlof and Rachel Kranton, the book’s focus is on behaviors at odds with traditional economic models of rationality, such as why people vote against their economic interests or why they stay in jobs making less than they could elsewhere.

www.marketwatch.com

Why bitcoin's bust and the 'crypto cult' threaten all investors

Cryptocurrency's huge spikes and setbacks unsettle traditional stock and bond markets.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
basilio said:
On the big picture however I still wonder about
1) The overall stability of any of the crypto currencies. Could one lose everything because you can't even trade out succesfully ?
2) What could be the impact on the overall financial system if these games go belly up. ?How exposed are the banks and other financial institutions ?
Click to expand...
You can lose everything. The value these coins have is the volume of hodlers and true believers. It's basically Fear/Greed trading in its primal form.
These coins seem to be nothing more than a popularity contest most of the time.
 
The hilarious part is that they have the same intrinsic value as fiat currency: nothing.

I had quite the giggle when I saw a conversation between a crypto guy & a forex guy and the crypto guy referred to the U.S dollars the forex guy was trading as "fedcoin".

There's quite a bit to that joke when you think about it ;)
 

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