Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas
- Thread starter suhm
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Topping up TAP today, good report out on their drill for Zola-1 they currently anticipate it to be at the top of the 1-2Tcf range they have previously anticipated and have not yet fully transected the pay zone. Awaiting full wireline logging results and to finish drilling as their drill rig is stuck before a statement of reserves is made.
Top up at 1.03, will anticipate selling back this parcel post release of formal results.
Top up at 1.03, will anticipate selling back this parcel post release of formal results.
suhm
Prana (PBT.AX) which trades as PRAN on the nasdaq was up 103% overnight in the US if you include after hours trading. It closed after hours at $USD2.99. The ADRs are 10:1 and with the exchange rate at around parity that indicates it should trade for 30c here in Aus today. Though in the past there has often be a divergence in prices.
While the release yesterday was encouraging, I didn't view it as groundbreaking news as it was what many of us believed anyway. What Prana need is funding and if they don't get a good deal soon then in hindsight this would be a good time to trim. Of course if they soon announce a good deal, then in hindsight now would look like a good time to add. Such is the market. Perhaps the news will help them get a deal, but I suspect having an IP lawyer as the COO has hindered their deal making ability.
Prana (PBT.AX) which trades as PRAN on the nasdaq was up 103% overnight in the US if you include after hours trading. It closed after hours at $USD2.99. The ADRs are 10:1 and with the exchange rate at around parity that indicates it should trade for 30c here in Aus today. Though in the past there has often be a divergence in prices.
While the release yesterday was encouraging, I didn't view it as groundbreaking news as it was what many of us believed anyway. What Prana need is funding and if they don't get a good deal soon then in hindsight this would be a good time to trim. Of course if they soon announce a good deal, then in hindsight now would look like a good time to add. Such is the market. Perhaps the news will help them get a deal, but I suspect having an IP lawyer as the COO has hindered their deal making ability.
cheers moreld, explains why the big and delayed rise today to the news, it is good to know the mechanism of action rather than theoritically how a medication works but its still a long way to development, maybe they will make use of the higher share price to do a cap raise and fund their trial.
Many thanks again moreld for PBT, just wish I had purchased a standard parce size, reason I am selling is that it looks like a pump and dump to me will look to re-enter when the dust settles, in at 0.145 out at 0.361 not bad for <2 weeks. If I were management I would raise the money to do the trial now and forget about big pharma.
skc
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Very sensible and great return for 2 weeks. We are know that the position size is never big enough on a winning trade
PBT sure smells like pump and capital-raising - and look at those sharp spikes that occur on regular basis in the past - definitely a take profit imo.
skc
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Lol. Great timing indeed and not a moment too soon. Now trading -2% having been up ~50%.
Did they read my post on this thread and decided to go cap in hand?
Rest of CCV sold today at 0.84 in at 0.54. Timing of previous sale was unfortunate as they received a proportional bid from their major shareholder EZCorp for 0.91 cents for 30% of your shares. Seems like another low ball bid approved by the management team and the board so will probably go through. Think there is more downside in the market as a whole possible than upside and upside for CCV will be capped by this offer. It is probably unlikely that I will be able to pick this up on the cheap though given the offer is in place but I think it discounts the sustained growth this company should see by converting to company owned stores and there is no control premium. I don't have the money to fight management though so all I can do is get out.
TSV- Transerv about to spud the Warro-4 hole with Warro-3 abandoned because of influx of water, market cap is around 100m, not my standard play as shares on issue is about 3bn, but it is free carried for the first 100m of spending on the field by Alcoa, they farmed in for 65% of the field based on spending targets and they have committed to the further drilling even with the failure of the Warro-3 hole. They think with new fraccing techniques for their horizontal well they can access the tightly spaced gas and have less influx of water as the fraccing fluid is distributed more horizontally so less interruption of the layers of the field and they are also now prepared for the water problems. They are close to production pipelines and the free carry is anticipated to take them to production. Exit would be based on whether it gets ramped up in the spudding process or with initial production rates. They should be good even if the well is abandoned ideal outcome is to transition to a sucessful producer. Field size is 10Tcf, recoverable anticipated at 2.1Tcf 735bcf net to TSV.
In at 0.029
So reasons for investment 1)free carry by Alcoa
2) Horizontal instead of vertical well being drilled should lead to higher flow rates, so greater potential for ramping if fellows from the other board get along.
3) The gas is there, it has flowed commercial quantities, the problem was water flowing in restricting flow rates after initial production, they have designed this well to remove that water.
4) Close to pipelines and in WA where due to LNG terminals gas prices are much higher than in the rest of Australia, so if the wells can produce it should be able to commercialise them.
In at 0.029
So reasons for investment 1)free carry by Alcoa
2) Horizontal instead of vertical well being drilled should lead to higher flow rates, so greater potential for ramping
if fellows from the other board get along.3) The gas is there, it has flowed commercial quantities, the problem was water flowing in restricting flow rates after initial production, they have designed this well to remove that water.
4) Close to pipelines and in WA where due to LNG terminals gas prices are much higher than in the rest of Australia, so if the wells can produce it should be able to commercialise them.
Additional DRA added at 1.68, price of gold is holding up and company has been adding lots of extra cash which should be able to fund production at Kusamo. They anticipate an extra 60k oz a year of gold in 2014 and have been proving up reserves with their drilling program. First results from drilling program in Kusamo out this morning and given previous bonanza grades could add excitement. Gapped up yesterday on strong volume which has taken out the downtrend.
Busy morning today, news out that BTA got BARDA funding, its non-diluive and greater than its market cap the previous day, funds the treatment study to productions , thought it would be a day bagger on the news but nowhere near that, so have liquadated a lot of positions to fund more BTA.
Partially out of DRA in at 1.68 out at 1.68
Out of TSV in at 0.29 out at 0.28
Out of ABY in at 1.33 out at 1.46
Out of TBR in at 0.77 out at 2.29
Out of SRX in at 5.01 out at 5.27
Partially out of HOG in at 0.30 out at 0.42
Partially out of TAP in at 0.81 out at 1.10
All transactions done to fund extra BTA average entry today 1.47
, thought it would be a day bagger on the news but nowhere near that, so have liquadated a lot of positions to fund more BTA.Partially out of DRA in at 1.68 out at 1.68
Out of TSV in at 0.29 out at 0.28
Out of ABY in at 1.33 out at 1.46
Out of TBR in at 0.77 out at 2.29
Out of SRX in at 5.01 out at 5.27
Partially out of HOG in at 0.30 out at 0.42
Partially out of TAP in at 0.81 out at 1.10
All transactions done to fund extra BTA average entry today 1.47
skc
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Busy morning today, news out that BTA got BARDA funding, its non-diluive and greater than its market cap the previous day, funds the treatment study to productions
Partially out of DRA in at 1.68 out at 1.68
Out of TSV in at 0.29 out at 0.28
Out of ABY in at 1.33 out at 1.46
Out of TBR in at 0.77 out at 2.29
Out of SRX in at 5.01 out at 5.27
Partially out of HOG in at 0.30 out at 0.42
Partially out of TAP in at 0.81 out at 1.10
All transactions done to fund extra BTA average entry today 1.47
Are you sure the concentration is a good idea?
I tried to value BTA in light of the announcement... since they are a loss-making entity, it takes a whole bunch of assumptions to come up with some numbers.
No doubt it's a big slab of money from BARDA - the question is how much of the market cap (based on yesterday's price) has already include the future upside of the drug. I certainly wouldn't just add the BARDA money (which arrives over 5 years anyway) on top of yesterday's market cap (not suggesting that's what you are doing).
I've always run a pretty concentrated portfolio, previous to this my largest position was 5 times the size of my smallest, now BTA is my largest position and is 12.5 times the size of the smallest.
I like to scale into high probability positions and I have been burnt a few times when the news flow was not as I expected and exited the positions but if the ball is just sitting there the mistake for me is not to swing at it hard. Liquidity can sometimes be an issue when I find that I am wrong and I do take that into account as to how far I
I scale back once they hit my price targets as I did with FGE, I left a lot of money on the table on that one but as you said concentration risk can get a bit high.
Thesis for BTA is 1) They are funded now to production. BARDA money is essentially free money. I don't think the market would quite understand this given less examples of leading biotech shares, MSB is changing this I believe. MSB skyrocketed post their deal with Cephalon. In this deal BTA have retained full ownership of their molecule. This is a much better deal than big pharma giving them 250m upfront and then royalties to follow.
2) Cash on hand + NPV of BARDA funding is = to almost current market cap.
3) They do not need to do a licencing deal now and comments by management suggest that Daiichi Sankyo might get a similair arrangement for rest of the world as Biota gets in Japan. I was at the meeting in Melbourne and similair comments were made in the webcast today. i.e. 4% royalties on sales.
4) They have 2 royalty paying drugs already. One is relenza which has a better resistance profile than tamiflu but sales have been poor as is inhaled and is not marketed as well as tamiflu. The other is LANI which received the BARDA funding.
5) LANI while not a slamdunk to pass phase III trials in the ROW has a much higher probability than most other drugs as a) it already has passed a less rigorous phase III trial, b) its mechanism of action is a derivative of relenza and relenza passed its trial.
Risks 1) LANI doesn't pass the trial - That would be the worst outcome but is 5 years down the track, by then I would have scaled out of the position.
2) BTA is about the most "retarded" stock I follow on the ASX, it whipsaws up and down for no apparent reason, seems to be the plaything of those with a lot more capital than I have and price always seems to do something different than what I expect. All that frantic selling I did this morning was for naught.
I like to scale into high probability positions and I have been burnt a few times when the news flow was not as I expected and exited the positions but if the ball is just sitting there the mistake for me is not to swing at it hard. Liquidity can sometimes be an issue when I find that I am wrong and I do take that into account as to how far I
I scale back once they hit my price targets as I did with FGE, I left a lot of money on the table on that one but as you said concentration risk can get a bit high.
Thesis for BTA is 1) They are funded now to production. BARDA money is essentially free money. I don't think the market would quite understand this given less examples of leading biotech shares, MSB is changing this I believe. MSB skyrocketed post their deal with Cephalon. In this deal BTA have retained full ownership of their molecule. This is a much better deal than big pharma giving them 250m upfront and then royalties to follow.
2) Cash on hand + NPV of BARDA funding is = to almost current market cap.
3) They do not need to do a licencing deal now and comments by management suggest that Daiichi Sankyo might get a similair arrangement for rest of the world as Biota gets in Japan. I was at the meeting in Melbourne and similair comments were made in the webcast today. i.e. 4% royalties on sales.
4) They have 2 royalty paying drugs already. One is relenza which has a better resistance profile than tamiflu but sales have been poor as is inhaled and is not marketed as well as tamiflu. The other is LANI which received the BARDA funding.
5) LANI while not a slamdunk to pass phase III trials in the ROW has a much higher probability than most other drugs as a) it already has passed a less rigorous phase III trial, b) its mechanism of action is a derivative of relenza and relenza passed its trial.
Risks 1) LANI doesn't pass the trial - That would be the worst outcome but is 5 years down the track, by then I would have scaled out of the position.
2) BTA is about the most "retarded" stock I follow on the ASX, it whipsaws up and down for no apparent reason, seems to be the plaything of those with a lot more capital than I have and price always seems to do something different than what I expect. All that frantic selling I did this morning was for naught.
Largest year for flu NI antivirals was bird flu season and anti viral stockpile building 2009 USD4bn, biota went to $3 on the back of relenza about a 4% royalty, Peter Cook gave a figure of 1bn that GSK made on relenza in that year, it still has relenza, the drugs have expiry dates so stockpiles if governments wish to have them will have to be repurchased, a 4% royalty on LANI in Japan and at least 50% and potentially 96% for ROW.
Forgot another risk factor is if the prophylaxis trial that DS is doing fails that would be a bad sign, but that would give also give a serious uplift into the value of LANI if it is succesful.
I think at that point BTA would do a cap raise to fund the prophylaxis phase III trial in the ROW if the Japanese study was succesful as it would be able to run concurrently with the treatment trial.
Forgot another risk factor is if the prophylaxis trial that DS is doing fails that would be a bad sign, but that would give also give a serious uplift into the value of LANI if it is succesful.
I think at that point BTA would do a cap raise to fund the prophylaxis phase III trial in the ROW if the Japanese study was succesful as it would be able to run concurrently with the treatment trial.
TKL - In at 0.282 out at 0.296. Saw it written up in Gampiero in the age quite soon after the article was released, recent cap raise at prices not far off current share price should fund additional drilling in large tenemant, low market cap and illiquid so seemed like it had the potential to spike and enough volume on the buy side to liquidate if need be given the small position size taken.
Not a huge fan of doing these trades as am not comfortable taking a large position so returns are not stellar given the poor rationale for the trade and large trading fees as with comsec who have also charge a transaction fee on top of brokerage. My strike rate for these trades is a lot higher than for my normal trades however always seems like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.
Not a huge fan of doing these trades as am not comfortable taking a large position so returns are not stellar given the poor rationale for the trade and large trading fees as with comsec who have also charge a transaction fee on top of brokerage. My strike rate for these trades is a lot higher than for my normal trades however always seems like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.
Sold out of TXN in at 0.76 out at 0.815, should be some SPP selling as they filled all the applications without scaling back. Have been thinking there should be a correction in the market soon so have been taking money off the table to keep some money around for opportunities that crop up.
Bought DRXO at 0.03, strike price 0.15 sept 2013, market cap 35m with a further 80m options on issue, a very spec stock, zircon play, with a reasonably large proposed production rate about 66ktpa around the same size as the other 2 zircon plays pending a go ahead for building of production and larger than the other stock IDM where zircon is a byproduct. Recent cap raise at 8c should provide an anchor point for the share price in the short term and there is a short term catalyst for a rerating as they have been in discussions with BaoTi the major Chinese consumer of zircon about developing the prospect with both parties aiming to reach a binding heads of agreement by the end of June 2011, capex estimated at about 200m to bring to production. Not actually my favoured zircon play but I like to chase bubbles I can understand and Iluka is most definitely in bubble territory. Not my favoured play as production only mooted for 2014/15 but figured the ops are a good leveraged play for the confirmation of a development plan in the next 3 months, will exit on weakness after agreement signed or if a agreement is not reached with BaoTi.
Bought DRXO at 0.03, strike price 0.15 sept 2013, market cap 35m with a further 80m options on issue, a very spec stock, zircon play, with a reasonably large proposed production rate about 66ktpa around the same size as the other 2 zircon plays pending a go ahead for building of production and larger than the other stock IDM where zircon is a byproduct. Recent cap raise at 8c should provide an anchor point for the share price in the short term and there is a short term catalyst for a rerating as they have been in discussions with BaoTi the major Chinese consumer of zircon about developing the prospect with both parties aiming to reach a binding heads of agreement by the end of June 2011, capex estimated at about 200m to bring to production. Not actually my favoured zircon play but I like to chase bubbles I can understand and Iluka is most definitely in bubble territory. Not my favoured play as production only mooted for 2014/15 but figured the ops are a good leveraged play for the confirmation of a development plan in the next 3 months, will exit on weakness after agreement signed or if a agreement is not reached with BaoTi.
I've been looking at silver stocks for awhile as part of the gold/inflation type theme and have chosen ARDO as my exposure. Large deposit which they have just moved to 100%% ownership of, the deposit is low grade but shallow so does not require much so the strip ratio is reasonable and is open at depth with previous drilling only done to about 60m with the deposit 3km long.
Reason for investment 1) Silver price has doubled recently and share price has been flat over the period.
2) Strike price of the options have been reduced they are in the money currently and represent huge leverage on any increase in the share price. The strike price was reduced as they sold of a gold deposit and did an in specie distribution of shares in the acquiree.
3) Previous feasibility study was done at silver prices half what they are currently. Potential for a massive resource upgrade simply by accepting a lower cut off grade and from the additional drilling. An update is expected in June before option expiry, likely designed to keep them in the money as they will other.
Initial scoping study was for a 600ktpa plant, with a 1000ktpa plant then modelled and the DFS expected to be completed in Dec11 is for a 1.5Mtpa plant, the timelines have slipped as the DFS was previously expected earlier
I've only really found 4 pure silver plays, this is probably the furtherst from production, but hasn't been rerated like the other as it previously was developing a smallish gold mine cast off from Barrick in tandem with the silver exploration. I wish I had an order in yesterday to mop up the person who dumped his oppies, there was about 900k in the queue which got dumped at the close, was waiting for them to decrease their asking price before buying in. Don't know why they chose to work their order that way, there are only 40m oppies in total and 80m shares so they couldn't have expected that the liquidity could handle that, I probably need a broker so I can place a pyramid order, the difficulties of being a retail investor. Must have needed some cash quick.
Big risk as the share price only has to drop 10% for the oppies to be OTM, but silver price has gone ballistic, which should eventually be reflected in the share price and resource upgrade is expected before option expiry date.
In at average of 0.032.
Reason for investment 1) Silver price has doubled recently and share price has been flat over the period.
2) Strike price of the options have been reduced they are in the money currently and represent huge leverage on any increase in the share price. The strike price was reduced as they sold of a gold deposit and did an in specie distribution of shares in the acquiree.
3) Previous feasibility study was done at silver prices half what they are currently. Potential for a massive resource upgrade simply by accepting a lower cut off grade and from the additional drilling. An update is expected in June before option expiry, likely designed to keep them in the money as they will other.
Initial scoping study was for a 600ktpa plant, with a 1000ktpa plant then modelled and the DFS expected to be completed in Dec11 is for a 1.5Mtpa plant, the timelines have slipped as the DFS was previously expected earlier
I've only really found 4 pure silver plays, this is probably the furtherst from production, but hasn't been rerated like the other as it previously was developing a smallish gold mine cast off from Barrick in tandem with the silver exploration. I wish I had an order in yesterday to mop up the person who dumped his oppies, there was about 900k in the queue which got dumped at the close, was waiting for them to decrease their asking price before buying in. Don't know why they chose to work their order that way, there are only 40m oppies in total and 80m shares so they couldn't have expected that the liquidity could handle that, I probably need a broker so I can place a pyramid order, the difficulties of being a retail investor. Must have needed some cash quick.
Big risk as the share price only has to drop 10% for the oppies to be OTM, but silver price has gone ballistic, which should eventually be reflected in the share price and resource upgrade is expected before option expiry date.
In at average of 0.032.
On another note I have been trying to calculate my portfolio return, I have previously just been keeping track of my net equity position, as 1) thought it would be hard to annualise given cashflow out with dividends, equity deposits and withdrawls and 2) The current portfolio has only really started in earnest in Sept 2009.
Its been about 18months since then and I decided to use an IRR to determine my annualised return. This was 69.7%pa, leverage was reasonably high at the beginning which boosted returns.
Biggest contributors to the performance TBR-Still undervalued gold producer but shockingly dodgy management.
RHD- Taken out for a song as management wanted out.
MMS- Solid company operating in an area where margins are fantastic.
FGE- Wish I had been able to pick up more of these early, mining services was the place to be and got smacked in the GFC.
Biggest detractors from performance.
1) Far and away the biggest cause of lost profits is me recycling capital into new ideas. If I was able to hang on to the companies where I didn't see them as cheap but were in decent uptrends and not overly expensive my profits would be much higher. I am moving to macquarie prime as it should allow me to reinvest more of my profits without churning through the portfolio and will also help with the taxation problem.
2) Following the hype - VIL, energy has been one of the sector plays I was following and was trying to get a grip of the sector. Initially was going more with asset plays as did not really, still don't understand exploration upside and production rates, declines and reserve valuations. Blindly followed what the presentations were saying and what management was saying but didn't have the skill set to interprept the BS.
CKK- Same blue sky potential but where are the contracts.
NBS- Just got conned, definitely increased my skills in forensic accounting but was an expensive lesson.
The problems with an IRR for me are how it deals with the equity withdrawls and deposits as I am not sure how it time weights it, most of my equity deposits besides the initial outlay have been over the last couple of months and the time weighting of the deposits and withdrawls doesn't seem to be adequately reflected.
Is there a better method to calculate your return which isn't excessively time consuming?
Its been about 18months since then and I decided to use an IRR to determine my annualised return. This was 69.7%pa, leverage was reasonably high at the beginning which boosted returns.
Biggest contributors to the performance TBR-Still undervalued gold producer but shockingly dodgy management.
RHD- Taken out for a song as management wanted out.
MMS- Solid company operating in an area where margins are fantastic.
FGE- Wish I had been able to pick up more of these early, mining services was the place to be and got smacked in the GFC.
Biggest detractors from performance.
1) Far and away the biggest cause of lost profits is me recycling capital into new ideas. If I was able to hang on to the companies where I didn't see them as cheap but were in decent uptrends and not overly expensive my profits would be much higher. I am moving to macquarie prime as it should allow me to reinvest more of my profits without churning through the portfolio and will also help with the taxation problem.
2) Following the hype - VIL, energy has been one of the sector plays I was following and was trying to get a grip of the sector. Initially was going more with asset plays as did not really, still don't understand exploration upside and production rates, declines and reserve valuations. Blindly followed what the presentations were saying and what management was saying but didn't have the skill set to interprept the BS.
CKK- Same blue sky potential but where are the contracts.
NBS- Just got conned, definitely increased my skills in forensic accounting but was an expensive lesson.
The problems with an IRR for me are how it deals with the equity withdrawls and deposits as I am not sure how it time weights it, most of my equity deposits besides the initial outlay have been over the last couple of months and the time weighting of the deposits and withdrawls doesn't seem to be adequately reflected.
Is there a better method to calculate your return which isn't excessively time consuming?
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