Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Biotechs - Are they the flavour for 2007?

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constable said:
Just creating a watch list for the bio's
Feel free to add ta.
blt,bpo,bta,cir,csl,cuv,gtg,iba,imu,lbt,mbp,nal,nls,nrt,pgl,pno,poh,psd,ptd,pxs,rby,rhc,rtl,sbp,som,tis,vcr
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PRR ready to go north...
 
dhukka said:
Which reality would that be? The "I own it therefore it should be higher than it is now reality?" PTD current price $1.56, current P/E 49x, book value $0.52 cps (including cash of $0.25 cps), FY06 revenues down -55% on pcp FY06 NPAT down -80% on pcp.

Care to enlighten us with how you come up with a valuation of $1.75+.
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Dhukka,

December news (etrade) that may be of interest to you...

Business Impact: CEO, John Chiplin says he has been advised by two independent parties that PTD has no capital tax obligation on the profit made from the Domantis sale. This means PTD generates a cash profit of 1.08cps. After discounting the cash balance we come up with $1.12. Now PTD says it will receive $100-$130m in licensing revenue over the next four years from its licensing agreement with Abbot and J&J. This translates to a present value of $78m or 47.5cps, adding this to our cash figure takes the kitty up to $1.60. The remainder of the business is difficult to value. There are a number of listed biotech companies with promising technology under development but some years off from market trading around the $50m capitalisation mark. We understand the value of PN0621 in itself could be worth significantly more but with the high probabilities of compounds in phase one failing to reach market it is sensible to subscribe a conservative value, adding a further 30cps to our value take us to $1.90.

Forecast Impact: --

Recommendation Impact: We discount this conservative value by a further 15% to get to our accumulate trigger price of $1.60 for speculative investors, with the aim of taking part profits above $2.00. For our more conservative investors we suggest you invest in less volatile stocks that offer more consistent and predictable earning streams. (Last updated: 15/12/2006

Ozewolf
 
ozewolf said:
Dhukka,


Business Impact: CEO, John Chiplin says he has been advised by two independent parties that PTD has no capital tax obligation on the profit made from the Domantis sale. This means PTD generates a cash profit of 1.08cps. After discounting the cash balance we come up with $1.12. Now PTD says it will receive $100-$130m in licensing revenue over the next four years from its licensing agreement with Abbot and J&J. This translates to a present value of $78m or 47.5cps, adding this to our cash figure takes the kitty up to $1.60. The remainder of the business is difficult to value. There are a number of listed biotech companies with promising technology under development but some years off from market trading around the $50m capitalisation mark. We understand the value of PN0621 in itself could be worth significantly more but with the high probabilities of compounds in phase one failing to reach market it is sensible to subscribe a conservative value, adding a further 30cps to our value take us to $1.90.

Forecast Impact: --

Recommendation Impact: We discount this conservative value by a further 15% to get to our accumulate trigger price of $1.60 for speculative investors, with the aim of taking part profits above $2.00. For our more conservative investors we suggest you invest in less volatile stocks that offer more consistent and predictable earning streams. (Last updated: 15/12/2006

Ozewolf
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My apologies ozewolf, jumped the gun. Whilst I don't agree with the DCF above it does look more attractive being one of the more cashed up biotechs. NTA rises to $1.45ps of which $1.23 is cash. Still paying a high multiple but given they have the cash resources to take clinical trials through all three phases independently, which not many biotechs have the resources to do, and a reliable income stream for the next 4 years they are well positioned to leverage their product pipeline.
 
I have mentioned AVX couple of times but then no-one responded maybe because I am new.......

Look at the chart I posted on the outstanding breakouts and the sp until now.

IMHO,They have a good management and they are experimenting about AIDS !!!
See how it goes.......
 
Hi guys first post. It's the biotech talk that finally made me register.

Check out biotechdaily.com.au it's a biotech newsletter, and the editor David Langsam is a massive bull on this sector.

Go to board room radio brr.com.au for the uninitiated to get a free market wrap from biotech daily. I check it out every day, easy to stay updated. In this presentation there's a biotech sector graph compared to all ords and biotech EASILY outperforms.

I am excited about this sector but be cautious! Metabolic recently released disappointing trial results just before market open, and dropped 70% on open and closed thereabouts. There was no chance to get out.

I think the most important features to consider in biotechs are:

* Stage of development of products (otherwise you'll be waiting years till revenue and price increase)
* Market for products
* Patents/likelihood of technology becoming redundant
* Management quality

For the patient researcher there's some 10-100 baggers out there though.
 
SLA is another making great leaps and bounds. read thier announcements over the last 4 months and you'll see why, any analysis here would be ramping, just have a look and make your own decision.
 
Tell us anyway, I just had a look at it. It's not ramping if you have a disclaimer!


What's so good about it?
 
I've posted on FER a few times.

They are a company that is using their technology to scan pieces of hair to detect breast cancer. Their trials have been positive, and are still continuing. There is a possibility in the future to have their technology modified to detect other forms of cancer such as Bowel... and alzeheimers.

To me this looks promising as their technology is being used, and accepted in radiology clinics in NSW and VIC. It provides a non-invasive way to detect for cancer. Now that has alot of potential in my view.
 
has anyone read or heard anything that would account for the increase in activity with volumes and SP on PLT?
 
After todays effort i have nearly 40% of my portfolio in biotechs! Havent really looked at it like that before. Remainder in mining and gas projects.
May well be a safe haven in months to come with some of these more obscure stocks well out of the mainstream market.
 
Melbourne based biotech Solagran Limited (ASX: SLA) has announced an important extension to the successful neurodegenerative disorders trials it is conducting in both Melbourne and St Petersburg Since listing in August 2003, Solagran has been commercialising a range of natural pharmaceuticals known as Bioeffectives. These multiple molecule substances each have many applications but few if any side effects. They are obtained from green conifer needles using a patented extraction process. Solagran acquired the underlying intellectual property from the St Petersburg Forest Technical Academy in the late 1990s in a commercial arrangement that involved key scientists acquiring a substantial shareholding in the company. Further development enabled the company to acquire a comprehensive new global technology patent not long after it listed a little over three years ago. Solagran is now poised to lead world in production of this new category of pharmaceuticals, which includes a particularly valuable class of substance known as polyprenols. Solagran’s Bioeffective R is comprised entirely of polyprenols.

In 2005, Solagran conducted successful trials at St Petersburg’s Skvortsova-Stepanova Psychiatric Hospital using Ropren (the finished dose form of Bioeffective R) to treat Alzheimer’s patients. The results demonstrated that administration of Ropren for a four month period led to an average 38 percent improvement in cognitive function among patients who had been suffering from Alzheimer’s for between six months and four years. 44 percent of patients experienced an improvement in cognitive function of 50 percent or more. 24 percent experienced an improvement of 100 percent or more. The trials also demonstrated that treatment with Ropren resulted in the elimination of most other Alzheimer’s symptoms, including depression. It also led to a normalisation of the activity of key enzymes in blood plasma, which in the opinion of Solagran Executive Chairman Dr Vagif Soultanov, provides evidence of a link between liver degeneration and the incidence of neurodegenerative disorders like Alzheimer’s – something he has hypothesized for many years. (This might explain the relatively high incidence of these disorders in western society where liver degeneration arising from inappropriate diet, alcohol abuse, and the widespread consumption of prescription and over the counter drugs, is also relatively high.)

Following this and other studies in St Petersburg, further trials to understand Ropren’s potential were undertaken in Melbourne by Swinburne University’s Brain Sciences Institute on 100 healthy volunteers aged 60 to 85 years. The positive preliminary results of these trials were announced last November. They indicated that treatment with Ropren led to:

1. A 15 percent or more improvement in memory function and speed of recall. This was a significant uplift for healthy volunteers in this age group.
2. Significant improvements in liver function (particularly in its protein synthesising function) together with other blood biochemical indices.
3. A marked reduction in Low Density Lipoproteins (LDL) combined with an equally marked increase in High Density Lipoproteins (HDL). This has major implications for the potential use of Ropren as a treatment to normalise cholesterol levels.
4. No adverse outcomes or side effects.

The final report from the Swinburne University study is to be received by Solagran in mid February 2007.

While the Swinburne trials were under way, a further trial involving the use of Ropren to treat critically ill heroin-addicted chronic alcoholics was completed at the Skvortsova-Stepanova Hospital. While not yet released for reasons related to ongoing intellectual property protection work, Solagran says the findings from the trial are significant. Some feedback from the research team was announced in October 2006 – including a firm policy decision by the hospital to incorporate Ropren into its clinical practice for the treatment of drug induced psychoses and other conditions associated with alcohol and drug addiction.

As a direct result of the clinical outcomes achieved with that trial, Solagran has now reached an agreement with the Head Physician and scientific medical team of the Skvortsova-Stepanova Hospital to conduct a virtually identical trial using another of its family of 15 Bioeffectives – in this case Bioeffective A. Bioeffective A is already listed with the TGA in Australia, and is now the subject of an NDI application with the Food and Drug Administration in the USA.

Both Solagran and the research team at the Skvortsova-Stepanova hospital believe that use of Bioeffective A, either in conjunction with or as and adjunct to treatment with Ropren, could have the potential to produce a number of positive physiological and neurological clinical outcomes for alcoholics and heroin addicts. This could lead to a treatment regime involving a relatively short treatment with Ropren combined with longer term treatment with lower cost Bioeffective A.

The new St Petersburg trial involves 50 patients aged 18 to 60 years. It has already commenced and the final report will be delivered by June 1 this year.

While the focus of much of the recent research with Ropren has been focused on its use in the prevention and treatment of neurodegenerative disorders, Ropren has a wide range of applications. It has also been shown to enhance immune system response and has already completed clinical trials as a safe and highly effective treatment for chronic liver disease. It is expected to be listed in the Russian Pharmacopoeia for this application in March 2007. There are 10 million Russians with chronic liver disease so the initial demand is expected to be significant.

Solagran is currently gearing up for full scale commercial production. Once this production capacity is up and running, regulations will permit Solagran to directly supply three month courses of the drug for personal use to people in many countries throughout the world.

A Director of Solagran, Mr Peter Stedwell, told Australian Investor that the Board believed its international trials and market development strategy would soon generate significant revenues. “The entry of Ropren into the Russian Pharmacopoeia will be quite an achievement just four years after listing on the ASX. The trial results suggest that Ropren could be a leading product in a number of large international pharmaceutical markets in the relatively near future” Stedwell said.

The Solagran website is at www.solagran.com




[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You couldn't have asked for a better [/font]
 
[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You couldn't have asked for a better "buy" signal…[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last year, a group of the most powerful investors in the world announced their intention to make one of the market's most ignored sectors their top investment priority in 2007.[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's not the hedge-fund or mutual-fund industry, although they're interested in the sector, too. It's a much different crowd… one that has more of a direct impact on the targeted industry. The group I'm referring to is the world's largest drug makers, collectively referred to as "Big Pharma." [/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Their target is the biotech industry.[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you're not familiar with biotech medicines, you should be, as they differ greatly from traditional chemistry-based medicines. Biotech medicines are displacing traditional drugs because they work much better. They work better because they're built with a rational design. They're made from living cells, and are often actual molecules like proteins or enzymes... traditional pharma drugs are just different types of chemicals.[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]To put it simply, the future of medicine is biotech. Four of the top five drug companies in the world have identified biotech as the center of their strategic focus for 2007. [/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In fact, the CEOs of two of these companies, Pfizer and Merck, have publicly stated desires for their companies to become the top biotech company in the world within a few years. To reach the top spot, these companies will have to spend many billions of dollars in research and acquisitions.[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Naturally, all of this translates into the prospect of huge returns for biotech investors in the near term, beginning this year.[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In 2006, Big Pharma and biotech reached more than 230 deals – up 32% from 2005. And the transactions were 20% richer for the biotechs, a sign of increasing leverage for the smaller parties at the negotiation table. There were also 10 acquisitions on the year – a record number. [/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Buyout premiums were up, with an average of 62% per deal. Yet, many of these buyouts took place at payout premiums greater than 100%. For example, one of our Phase 1 Investor holdings, Sirna Therapeutics, was acquired by Merck for $1.1 billion. The acquisition resulted in an immediate 100% gain. [/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The increased merger and acquisition trend that took off last year will certainly continue into 2007. The big drug companies continue to face eroding sales from blockbusters coming off patent and ensuing generic drug competition. [/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pfizer stands to lose half of its $50 billion revenue to generics in the next five years. Merck lost $3 billion this year alone when Zocor, the cholesterol drug, came off patent. Big Pharma will continue to be forced to turn to the biotech sector in search of new products to replace eroding sales.[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's why Big Pharma is turning to biotech: [/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]1.[/font] [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The bulk of innovation in drug discovery takes place in the biotech sector. Most big drug companies are nothing more than massive selling machines.[/font] [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2.[/font] [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Because of their complexity and specificity, biotech drugs command premium prices.[/font] [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]3.[/font] [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Biotech drugs are immune to generic competition… at least for now.[/font] [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Almost every big drug company has laid out cost-cutting tactics in their budget plans for the upcoming year. Pfizer, for example, plans to cut 20% of its sales force.[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Still, the Big Pharma coffers are chock full of cash, and a good chunk of that money will be flowing to biotech this year. Investing alongside them will be one of the smartest things you can do with your money in 2007.......




IMO buy some......:)
[/font]
 
If anyone is interested, I have access to a weekly newsletter which analyses Biotechnology stocks.

Unfortunately, it is a subscriber service and I can not place it on a public forum, although I am happy to email to ASF members personally.

If you are interested in the newsletter, please PM me with your email address and I will create a distribution list for the newsletter. I will send it out bcc, so your email address is safe.

Cheers,
kennas
 
Just bumping this in case anyone missed it and would like the newsletter.

kennas said:
If anyone is interested, I have access to a weekly newsletter which analyses Biotechnology stocks.

Unfortunately, it is a subscriber service and I can not place it on a public forum, although I am happy to email to ASF members personally.

If you are interested in the newsletter, please PM me with your email address and I will create a distribution list for the newsletter. I will send it out bcc, so your email address is safe.

Cheers,
kennas
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