BHP - BHP Group

[Sean K]

Now don't tell me it's heads and shoulders, knees and toes! I picked them up at toes last time $32, don't tell me we are heading there again! The XAO is going to play up badly if the engine room starts falling apart!

Possibility though.

Grace,

I love charts, and TA and FA, and Gann.

It all adds up a decision.

A decision based on perception.

Perception is reality.

The question now is:

Where in the perception?

For anything?

Hmmmmm?

 

[nyo]

IS this H & S with a leg down? See the attached figure. BLT and NYSE:BHP showed some weak signs of recovery.

Apparantely huge drop in coal prices is the key reason for this huge drop.

"Australian coal price to stay strong despite pullback"

Section from article:

# All the indicators in Asia certainly point to ongoing tightness in the thermal coal market.

In May, China reverted to being a net coal importer, with imports exceeding exports by 250,000 metric tonnes, as local output failed to keep pace with demand.

Between January 2008 and May 2008, China's coal exports fell 4.1 per cent on year, to 18.5 million tonnes, the General Administration of Customs said on June 23.

************************************************

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...5005200,00.html


Australian coal price to stay strong despite pullback

Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires | July 03, 2008

A SHARP pullback in benchmark Australian thermal coal prices is a natural correction after a recent surge, according to analysts.

 

[pilbara]

Apparantely huge drop in coal prices is the key reason for this huge drop.

I think it's similar to what happened last time there was a major selloff in resource stocks, which was just before Easter. I think that around the start of a new quarter, if there is a major public holiday coming up (eg Easter, 4th July) then before the holiday the major institutional investors will put in place their longer term changes in policy for the next quarter.

Also I agree with the following analysis by Jeff @ TradeInTheZone, who was commenting on the high performing stock US Steel Corp (X)

Wednesday July 2nd, mutual fund managers and hedge funds decided the global growth story is over. Coal, steel, ag, infrastructure, machinery, etc…anything that exports to the rest of the world got absolutely crushed (most names down a stunning 5-20% in 6.5 hours). I would NOT rush into these names right away or add to positions as of now…when they break like this it usually takes some time for them to rebound (if they do). DEflation is the worry…and it is brutal for these names. There is a good chance that the big price increases that the exporters have been able to put on could be history…and that kills psychology and PE ratios. X is likely to be a great trading stock over a period of hours...but choppy the next few weeks.

Jeff

www.tradeinthezone.com

 

[pilbara]

BLT and NYSE:BHP showed some weak signs of recovery.

Another thing to watch now is the strength of recovery in BHP compared to RIO, now that the the US regulators have not vetoed the takeover of RIO. For a while RIO tracked BHP at 3.4 BHP to 1 RIO, but then dropped down to the 3.1 BHP to 1 RIO. I'd say the recovery in RIO might be better, or perhaps the BHP recovery held back a bit with the takeover starting to come back into play.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Now don't tell me it's heads and shoulders, knees and toes! I picked them up at toes last time $32, don't tell me we are heading there again! The XAO is going to play up badly if the engine room starts falling apart!

Possibility though.

Hi Grace you are a lucky lady, I was greedy and waiting for a drop under $30 and missed out. No toes this time I predict although if it gets anyway below $38 I'll be in like Q.

gg

Grace,

I love charts, and TA and FA, and Gann.

It all adds up a decision.

A decision based on perception.

Perception is reality.

The question now is:

Where in the perception?

For anything?

Hmmmmm?

Hi Kennas,
Doesn't BHP channel nicely on a semilog weekly. I might go to your living room one day and do my ayurvedic humming on good ole BHP if it keeps on going. Imagine the equivolume on a combined BHP/RIO.

gg

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/04/2295144.htm
85% increase for BHP's ore price (in keeping with recent trends)

BHP accepts 85pc iron ore price rise
Posted 5 hours 9 minutes ago
Updated 4 hours 49 minutes ago
BHP has followed the lead of its mining rival Rio Tinto and agreed to an 85 per cent rise in the price of its Western Australian iron ore.

BHP struck the deal this afternoon with the Chinese steel maker Baosteel.

 

[mayk]

http://finance.google.com/finance?c...ue&chdet=1215647346343&chddm=2889&q=NYSE:BHP&

Just a question. Is this spike in the before market open tradin in NYSE:BHP just a trading glitch ( pressing of wrong button from some enthusiastic trader?).

What does these kind of glitches generally mean?

 

[Caliente]

I like the support BHP Billiton is showing this morning at $38.

Very surprised that the share price is down so heavily with the Dow shooting last night and XJO also not doing too badly albeit a financial driven rally.

In for 1000 units BHP@37.99 with Falling Sell Trigger at 37.89 incase my interpretation of the trend is incorrect.

Cheers
-Cali

 

[Sean K]

I like the support BHP Billiton is showing this morning at $38.

Very surprised that the share price is down so heavily with the Dow shooting last night and XJO also not doing too badly albeit a financial driven rally.

In for 1000 units BHP@37.99 with Falling Sell Trigger at 37.89 incase my interpretation of the trend is incorrect.

Cheers
-Cali

Good luck Cali.

Diversified commod stocks are moving off metal and oil prices at the moment.

Poo and Zn tanked last night which is why BHP is down.

Hope they recover for you.

 

[Caliente]

Cheers Kennas - CSL worked successfully for me yesterday =)

I'm using such a tight stop atm because even though I think I've just about picked todays bottom the market is so wild its hard to tell whats happening atm.

if you don't mind asking, what do the charts suggest to you Kennas? It doesn't help that BHP fell off the cliff face and had $5bn wiped off its market cap this morning

 

[Sean K]

Cheers Kennas - CSL worked successfully for me yesterday =)

I'm using such a tight stop atm because even though I think I've just about picked todays bottom the market is so wild its hard to tell whats happening atm.

if you don't mind asking, what do the charts suggest to you Kennas? It doesn't help that BHP fell off the cliff face and had $5bn wiped off its market cap this morning

eeeek,

See the 'Head and Shoulders' thread.

Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition.

Those H&S don't always work, just probabilities.

As you say, need to have a stop either way if you are 'trading', and not a long term buy and hoper...

 

[Caliente]

Failed trade. Stopped out at 37.90. Loss of ~$160 taken.

But you have to play the rules of expectancy or you'll get killed out there.

I just saw your analysis Kennas - and it looks disturbing. If BHP headed back to 34/35 which i've been thinking it could...that would weigh down pretty heavily on the AORDS.

-Cali

 

[Mr_T]

What's going on with BHP? Oil gone down a bit, but still high.

Chinese growth still high at 10.1%.

What justifies sucha drop in the price?

 

[ColB]

BHP almost $50 six weeks ago.

Oil price goes up and the media talk about the high cost of running mines etc What happens? BHP goes down. Oil price drops! What happens? BHP share price goes down as they have a significant part of their operations in the oil sector. Okay base metal prices have dropped at times during this period but BHP are off some 30-30% from their recent high. And our technical experts on this forum indicate it may go down to very low $30's!!!!

Spare me

 

[mayk]

http://www.miningmx.com/markets/670694.htm


I am waiting for BHP to go down (I hold BHP right now), but I want a much cheaper entry.

According to the analysis of the link, given we break the 35-36 we might see 20's.

 

[ColB]

I am waiting for BHP to go down (I hold BHP right now), but I want a much cheaper entry.

According to the analysis of the link, given we break the 35-36 we might see 20's.

Mayk, we won't see 20's in our lifetime! Maybe $30-33 if you're lucky.

My worth!!utthedoor:

 

[mayk]

I meant to say high 20's. Sorry if I mis-lead anyone into thinking 20-or 22, I meant 28-30 is a real possibility.

Please read this thread, when BHP was hovering around $50 mark, some people said the same thing about BHP going under 40.

In my short learning curve of stock market, I have learnt to avoid using the word 'never', as anything is possible in this crazy world.

 

[VViCKiD]

maybe this one is worth a short... looks like a double top has formed ...
what do u guys think ? can u see the double top ?

 

[Sean K]

maybe this one is worth a short... looks like a double top has formed ...
what do u guys think ? can u see the double top ?

You mean the peaks in Oct 07 and Mar 08? Doubt it, gives a target of about $18. It was worth shorting the H&S with a target of $34. Should be a lot of support there, but who knows....

 

[VViCKiD]

yeh.... they're the 2 tops... yeh... $18 target seems a bit far fetched ...
did u derive $34 from the aug 07 and apr 08 troughs ?