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BHP - BHP Group

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Whatever the case, 38-40 looks like important resistance to me. Could determine whether it continues up, or is in a longer term down trend. Might be representative of the overall commodity market also.
 

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Nyden said:
So, in other words - your highly analytical take is ... "anything could happen" :

Gosh, this market is messy. Might as well head down to the roulette table & bet a few grand on Black!
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Yep, and more often than not something does happen.. :
I have my two most likely scenarios mapped out, and rather than try to predict the market I will let it tell me what it is doing.. if it conforms to one of my maps I will be in early with my ears pinned back... not after the move is near completed and obvious to one and all. Just a different way of trading I guess...
Cheers
.........Kauri
 
Higher Iron Ore and Coal prices should give the sp a boost.
RIO uncertainty set too end on the 6th Feb no bid equals resumption of sharebuyback and hopefully increased dividends.
Higher production set to offset any lull in commodity prices.
All good imo
 
Iron ore prices for bhp will probably go up around about 40% this year as they plan to increase to long term contract prices with their major buyers which are way cheaper than the prices on the spot market. I just dont understand why they have been sold down so much. PLease dont tell me its the US "resession". for some reason people think that the words slowdown and resession has the same meaning.
 
So if BHP doesnt bid for RIO then there will be a resumption of the sharebuyback and traders move their money from RIO into BHP both of which will give the sp an injection.
If BHP does bid for RIO what will it do to the shareprice ?
 
Lucky_Country said:
So if BHP doesnt bid for RIO then there will be a resumption of the sharebuyback and traders move their money from RIO into BHP both of which will give the sp an injection.
If BHP does bid for RIO what will it do to the shareprice ?
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I'm guessing hammer it - like everything else in the market that has huge amounts of debt.

Feb6 is almost here, I think nothing is gonna happen but Kloppers could may well surprise yet.
 
I think the hidden devil is from south africa- with catastrophic power shortage very soon BHP will close their coal mines as well. So the high cash inflow will be plugged; the recession in USA will worsen (no matter how much cut is made in next two days- President Bush is a classic example of failure in everything - attacking Iraq for oil - did not pay back, creating a successor of Greenspan - sorry Ben you are no where near Greenspan, economy is down, dividends are being paid now for the major wrong strategies - world is affected so will be BHP, there is a chain reaction from lack of demand from China and as we close towards Sept 2008 the Olympic - Chinese markets will shrink .

So BHP will downgrade. Fortunately Rio has more strategic positions with automated mines, two ports, high resource base - it will not accept the BHP offer.

Of course it is my guess based on some speculative calculations. If I was so smart nevertheless I woudl be in the BHP or Rio Board ,

Best of luck
 
Maybe a pure scrip bid ?
Sharebuyback included they still have plenty left over from the cancellation of their last one.
Plus profits from a BHP/RIO would be astronomical easily repay debt.
Look at FMG zero revenue and 3.6 billion in debt !
 
kengaikl said:
I just dont understand why they have been sold down so much. PLease dont tell me its the US "resession".
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I, too don't understand the how when Iron Ore is doing so well that the share price takes a dive, apparently on a whim, I have seen their exported tonnes go from 68M a year to just under 300M. Of course this now includes the sale from Robe as the new amalgamated Pilbara Iron. China can't get enough Iron Ore, Rio is purchasing 6 of it's own ships and plans to freight their own ore in their own ships just to meet demand.

China now has it's finger in so many joint pies in the pilbara it's not funny (Murchison Metals, Channar minesite at Paraburdoo 50%) and it won't be long before China will be into FMG.

China gas accepted a 30-50% price increase from this year for contract sales but as usual I'm still baffled by the rise and fall of shares.

Personally I think it is more related to supply and demand based on panic and fear and an eye for a bargain.
 

China will shrink??? are you saying that the chinese economy will go into Recession? The US is not even in a recession yet alone china. A slower growth rate does not mean that they will buy less iron ore from us even if they have a slower growth rate they will still buy more from us because they are still growing. The only way they will buy less if they actually go into a recession with means that their economy has negative growth which is highly unlikely because they are actually trying to cool down their economy. The asian economies unlike the mid 90's are in a position where they can now protect themselves from any recession in the US as they have alot of room to move interms of fiscal and monetary policies to insulate themselves from a downturn in the US.
 
Patience is Everything!

Please
Just hold onto your hats overnight
Tomorrow is not that far away

Salute and Gods' speed
 
BHP astroanalysis ... 30012008:



Hi folks,

Looking ahead, with the RIO takeover announcement imminent,
our astroanalysis has us expecting some very positive BHP time
cycles, over the next couple of months:

06-07022008 ..... 3 minor cycles should bring some positive news,
probably finance-related ...

08-25022008 ..... underlying positive sentiment for BHP

03-04032008 ..... 2 minor cycles and more news expected here

07-17032008 ..... BHP should be VERY STRONG here ...

26-27032008 ..... 2 cycles and more positive news expected

07042008 ..... 2 cycles and negative spotlight on BHP

15-16042008 ..... a difficult cycle

18-21042008 ..... significant and negative cycle here

25-28042008 ..... significant and positive news expected.

07-08052008 ..... positive spotlight on BHP

14-16052008 ..... 2 positive cycles expected


have a great weekend

paul



=====
 
At the level the British listed BHP is at, the Aussie one should be at $39, so I think its quite a bargain and I was almost right in my analysis that get ready for BHP to tank to $32 and now it is flying !!

This titan carried the XAO on its back today with a late surge.

I do hope BHP gets smashed a bit so I can close my shorts and just get all the longside dividend >_<!
 
You do realise that BHP supplies coal to these power stations in SA? And that coal mines consume mainly diesel powerwise

And of course RIO has no automated mines
 
August correction and the jan one look remarkably same. Same time frame for recovery. I guess the share price will consolidate at these levels ( given no market crash in US) for few weeks and then might get on with its long term uptrend. We might see a peak near $50, before next announcements of write off period in US.

If BHP backs off or do not increase its bid I guess we might see a 2-5% further rise after 6 Feb.

Any other comments welcome.
 

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From Reuters...

Rio Tinto Chief Executive Tom Albanese on Sunday left the door open to a sweetened takeover offer from BHP Billiton, but said Rio would be happy to grow on its own if BHP walked away.
The world's biggest miner, BHP, must make a formal offer by Feb. 6 or leave Rio alone for at least six months under a deadline imposed by the UK Takeover Panel.
Rio shares jumped 4.9 percent in London on Friday on talk that BHP was set to improve its offer to 3.58 of its shares plus A$16.50 cash for Rio from a three-for-one all share offer, which was worth $140 billion when revealed last November.
While continuing to talk up the company's growth prospects, Albanese did not rule out accepting an improved offer.
 
Friday February 1, 08:31 AM

REUTERS UK


Chinalco and Alcoa take stake in Rio Tinto
LONDON (Reuters) - Chinese and U.S. aluminium producers Chinalco and Alcoa <AA.N> have teamed up to buy a 12 percent stake in Rio Tinto (Stuttgart: 855018 - news) <RIO.L>, days ahead of a deadline for suitor BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT.L - news) <BLT.L> to make a firm offer for Rio or walk away.

The move sent Rio's shares surging 13 percent and the stock was trading 10 percent higher at 54.59 pounds by 8:22 a.m.

Chinalco, China's biggest aluminium producer, and Alcoa (NYSE: AA - news) said in a statement on Friday they did not currently intend to make an offer for Rio, but reserved the right to do so if Rio received a firm bid from a third party.

BHP, the world's biggest mining group, made public a proposal on November (Frankfurt: A0S9N7 - news) 8 to take over Rio and forge a mega-mining group with a market capitalisation of around $350 billion, but Rio spurned the approach.

Rumours have swirling for weeks about possible involvement in Rio by players from China, which buys huge amounts of commodities produced by both Rio and BHP to build infrastructure for its booming economy.

"Our acquisition of a significant strategic stake in Rio Tinto Plc today reflects our confidence in the long term prospects for the rapidly evolving global mining sector," Chinalco's President Xiao Yaqing said.

"We have confidence in the fundamental value of the Rio Tinto Group and the management's strong ability to realise that value for shareholders."

The statement did not say how much was paid for the stake, but Lehman Bros said it bought the shares on behalf of Chinalco at 60 pounds a share.

"The door is still very much open for BHP. 12 percent is not a blocking stake...and 60 pounds a share is equivalent to about 4-to-1 (BHP shares for each Rio share) and we think BHP can go up to about 4.5-to-1," said Liberium Capital analyst Michael Rawlinson.

Rio has spurned BHP's all-share takeover proposal, saying it fundamentally undervalued Rio and its growth prospects.

In an effort to fend off BHP's advances, Rio said on November 26 it would spend $9 billion (4.5 billion pounds) in 2008 to expand output, boost dividends and generate at least $15 billion in asset sales.

BHP Billiton, which has argued a combination with Rio would generate $3.7 billion in synergies, had until February 6 to make a firm offer for Rio Tinto or to drop its proposed takeover for six months under a deadline imposed by UK takeover regulators.

(Reporting by Mark Potter and Eric Onstad; Editing by Louise Ireland)
 
BHP up like 15% in London at one stage. Get ready for a $4 move higher haha (dammit I wish I closed my shorts earlier) >_<
 
BHP bid for RIO all too hard too pull through now and could become very costly.
BHP shareholders should get immediate rewards from BHP resumption of the sharebuyback increased dividends and more buybacks in the future.
BHP may go on a shopping spree too increase its size so any co with great mineral assets will be in the window.
 
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