Have been very tempted to take part profits the past few weeks, seems to be getting a little overstretched in my view and finally set a target of $42, which it hit today. Sold the majority of my BHP holdings for a profit of 79% excluding dividends and brokerage. Not a bad return for a solid blue-chip over 1.5years. Still holding a small parcel for any upside in metal prices and/or the run into the Christmas period and will look to re enter if it falls back into the low-mid 30’s.
BHP - BHP Group
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BHP is expected to announce this week a resource upgrade for the Olympic Dam mine. Results are forecast to greatly expand the gold reserves and prove the site as the worlds largest known gold deposit.
$42 will be considered cheap in the medium term, Iron ore prices are going to rise very soon as they are renegotiating prices with the chinese BHP and RIO etc were after 40%! but i think it will be around 20-30%. With all these upcoming events i reckon it could be around $50 by years end.
Look at FMG they don't even produce ore yet and they are going nuts
$42 will be considered cheap in the medium term, Iron ore prices are going to rise very soon as they are renegotiating prices with the chinese BHP and RIO etc were after 40%! but i think it will be around 20-30%. With all these upcoming events i reckon it could be around $50 by years end.
Look at FMG they don't even produce ore yet and they are going nuts
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guys bhp is like way totally overvalued, the bears should come out of the woods and start shorting the company as its totally not sustainable lolol
Rio will hit $130 the way BHP is going
Rio will hit $130 the way BHP is going
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
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Like, really? Way totally even?
What are you, 15?
What do you have to back this up? You don't know what the potential gold upgrade may be.
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Looks like we can't rely on ducati for one of his famous valuations so that we can confirm $50 as a high probability.
However, with base metal prices maintaining higher than expected prices, for longer than expected, and with oil holding firmly over $80/bbl, the $50 dollar scenario might be in the rear vision mirror this time next year.
Therefore I have put the BHP "sell" button away for now, and will only resurrect it when quinquadigital dollars is normative.
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Intos are upgrading assumed iron ore price moves to well above 25%
Copper is rallying above $3.60 and remains in deficit
Oil is at all time highs
Nickel is bouncing
Coking coal is following iron ore
Sub-prime is a cut of steak as far as the Chinese are concerned.
Forget the Gold at Olympic Dam - what about the 500,000tn of copper and 15,000tn of U308 per year from the expansion ?
US$7bn at current prices - puts the gold to shame
BHP is going up....
Copper is rallying above $3.60 and remains in deficit
Oil is at all time highs
Nickel is bouncing
Coking coal is following iron ore
Sub-prime is a cut of steak as far as the Chinese are concerned.
Forget the Gold at Olympic Dam - what about the 500,000tn of copper and 15,000tn of U308 per year from the expansion ?
US$7bn at current prices - puts the gold to shame
BHP is going up....
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You obviously haven't read this thread much, so go back a couple of pages and read the amount of bears who have neutral/sell opinions on BHP when clearly all you have to watch is the low P/E ratio and insatiable demand from the people who buy off BHP.
My profits and technical analysis back me up so go to my blog if you want that.
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Hi folks,
BHP ..... just watching NBR ... yanks are saying,
that BHP will likely announce the world's biggest
gold resource in South Oz, later this week ... ???
..... and if you think BHP is expensive now, just
wait until 07-17032008 ... !~!
have a great day
paul
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mate they are announcing the results from their Olympic dam studies tomorrow. On the agenda is upgrade of resource, remeber Olympic is mainly producing Copper and uranium with Gold and silver as by products so imagine how big the whole deposit upgrade could be if it is the largest gold deposit and its a secondary product!
Plus they are looking into converting it from an underground mine to an open pit mine at a cost of approx 6 bill. we will know 2morrow
Plus they are looking into converting it from an underground mine to an open pit mine at a cost of approx 6 bill. we will know 2morrow
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This may be my biggest ever trading mistake, however today I chose to sell the rumour and tommorrow I'll see if the fact should be bought back. I have held this particular parcel for 12 months for a return of 79.84% before divideds and brokerage and that my only explionation for selling, anyway I'll need the money to buy expensive hay to feed my horses.
Cheers
BT
Cheers
BT
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Not bad
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...dam-shares-fall/2007/09/26/1190486354903.html
Btw does anyone know the difference between measured, indicated, inferred, proved, probable (exactly)?
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 275.0 320.7 354.9 326.8
DPS 55.4 63.0 73.6 77.3
thx
MS
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Interesting Article
Cheers
BT
Did BHP Disappoint?
FN Arena News - September 26 2007
By Greg Peel
Prior to this morning's release of BHP Billiton's (BHP) annual resource upgrade, the stock had leapt close to 9% in two days. While BHP has been ploughing its way back from a subprime bottom last month, and was bolstered by the news the Fed would save the US economy, the last two days have been somewhat surreal.
It all kicked off when the rumour went around that BHP had suddenly realised the gold deposit at Olympic Dam may actually be the biggest the world has ever seen. Olympic Dam already holds the world's largest known reserves of uranium, and the fourth largest reserves of copper, and now it seems its gold deposits might be three times bigger than first thought (which they would have to be to become the world's largest). Gold or no gold, the expectation was that BHP was going to announce something big at Olympic Dam either way.
The company reduced its proved and probable (2P) gold estimation from 9.2moz to 8.7moz. It did, however, increase the indicated gold resource from 17.5moz to 30.6moz.
In afternoon trade BHP's shares are off over 3% - still a healthy three-day return. There was a major upgrade to the Olympic Dam orebody - by 75% to 7.7 billion tonnes in fact - but the 2P reserves were only increased by a mere 7%.
Whatever may lie under the dust in South Australia, it won't be reaching the surface tomorrow. The reserve update provides the company with justification to proceed to a feasibility study to expand uranium operations. Uranium production has already been ear-marked for a tripling of production - over decades. Base metal production will also be increased, but gradually, in order to make the most of currently high prices.
Mine expansion takes an inordinately long period of time (if it didn't, commodity prices would never have reached this high), it is invariably beset with setbacks and delays, and capacity and labour constraints have led to surging costs.
BHP chairman Don Argus told Reuters he expects commodity prices to fall back to long-run marginal cost of supply in the medium term, while remaining historically high a volatile in the interim.
You'd be hard pressed to find someone who didn't think BHP was a worthwhile investment for the long term player. In the short term however, analysts have watched bemused as shares in the Big Australian have skyrocketed as the world worries about recession. The stock scores an 8/2/0 B/H/S ratio in the FNArena database, but the average 12-month price target stands at $43.32 - 3% below yesterday's high. Some analysts have already voiced their concern that investors were diving too hard and too fast into resource stocks since the Fed rate cut. Tomorrow's broker reports should make for interesting reading.
Cheers
BT
Did BHP Disappoint?
FN Arena News - September 26 2007
By Greg Peel
Prior to this morning's release of BHP Billiton's (BHP) annual resource upgrade, the stock had leapt close to 9% in two days. While BHP has been ploughing its way back from a subprime bottom last month, and was bolstered by the news the Fed would save the US economy, the last two days have been somewhat surreal.
It all kicked off when the rumour went around that BHP had suddenly realised the gold deposit at Olympic Dam may actually be the biggest the world has ever seen. Olympic Dam already holds the world's largest known reserves of uranium, and the fourth largest reserves of copper, and now it seems its gold deposits might be three times bigger than first thought (which they would have to be to become the world's largest). Gold or no gold, the expectation was that BHP was going to announce something big at Olympic Dam either way.
The company reduced its proved and probable (2P) gold estimation from 9.2moz to 8.7moz. It did, however, increase the indicated gold resource from 17.5moz to 30.6moz.
In afternoon trade BHP's shares are off over 3% - still a healthy three-day return. There was a major upgrade to the Olympic Dam orebody - by 75% to 7.7 billion tonnes in fact - but the 2P reserves were only increased by a mere 7%.
Whatever may lie under the dust in South Australia, it won't be reaching the surface tomorrow. The reserve update provides the company with justification to proceed to a feasibility study to expand uranium operations. Uranium production has already been ear-marked for a tripling of production - over decades. Base metal production will also be increased, but gradually, in order to make the most of currently high prices.
Mine expansion takes an inordinately long period of time (if it didn't, commodity prices would never have reached this high), it is invariably beset with setbacks and delays, and capacity and labour constraints have led to surging costs.
BHP chairman Don Argus told Reuters he expects commodity prices to fall back to long-run marginal cost of supply in the medium term, while remaining historically high a volatile in the interim.
You'd be hard pressed to find someone who didn't think BHP was a worthwhile investment for the long term player. In the short term however, analysts have watched bemused as shares in the Big Australian have skyrocketed as the world worries about recession. The stock scores an 8/2/0 B/H/S ratio in the FNArena database, but the average 12-month price target stands at $43.32 - 3% below yesterday's high. Some analysts have already voiced their concern that investors were diving too hard and too fast into resource stocks since the Fed rate cut. Tomorrow's broker reports should make for interesting reading.
Whiskers
It's a small world
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There is a reporting compliance code called JORC detailed at following link.
http://www.asx.com.au/ListingRules/appendices/App5a.doc
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See attached: Figure 1. General relationship between Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
An ‘Indicated Mineral Resource’ is that part of a Mineral Resource for which tonnage, densities, shape, physical characteristics, grade and mineral content can be estimated with a reasonable level of confidence. It is based on exploration, sampling and testing information gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes. The locations are too widely or inappropriately spaced to confirm geological and/or grade continuity but are spaced closely enough for continuity to be assumed.
A ‘Measured Mineral Resource’ is that part of a Mineral Resource for which tonnage, densities, shape, physical characteristics, grade and mineral content can be estimated with a high level of confidence. It is based on detailed and reliable exploration, sampling and testing information gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes. The locations are spaced closely enough to confirm geological and grade continuity.
An ‘Ore Reserve’ is the economically mineable part of a Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resource. It includes diluting materials and allowances for losses, which may occur when the material is mined. Appropriate assessments and studies have been carried out, and include consideration of and modification by realistically assumed mining, metallurgical, economic, marketing, legal, environmental, social and governmental factors. These assessments demonstrate at the time of reporting that extraction could reasonably be justified. Ore Reserves are sub-divided in order of increasing confidence into Probable Ore Reserves and Proved Ore Reserves.
A ‘Probable Ore Reserve’ is the economically mineable part of an Indicated, and in some circumstances, a Measured Mineral Resource. It includes diluting materials and allowances for losses which may occur when the material is mined. Appropriate assessments and studies have been carried out, and include consideration of and modification by realistically assumed mining, metallurgical, economic, marketing, legal, environmental, social and governmental factors These assessments demonstrate at the time of reporting that extraction could reasonably be justified.
A ‘Proved Ore Reserve’ is the economically mineable part of a Measured Mineral Resource. It includes diluting materials and allowances for losses which may occur when the material is mined. Appropriate assessments and studies have been carried out, and include consideration of and modification by realistically assumed mining, metallurgical, economic, marketing, legal, environmental, social and governmental factors. These assessments demonstrate at the time of reporting that extraction could reasonably be justified.
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Whiskers
It's a small world
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No worries Bush Trader. It's happened to me before too. Anyway michael and anyone else who were wondering have got the official jargon and a more brief laymans version as well now.
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Looking to short this sucker soon. It's meeting long term resistance and I just can't see it getting any more parabolic on a weekly or monthly closing basis regardless of the news (unless there is a BHP takeover offer for $50+).
Not long term bearish - just in it for a short to intermediate term swing.
Not long term bearish - just in it for a short to intermediate term swing.
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I don't know if this is advice or not but you're absoloutely right, BHP can get taken over at any moment if something like the Chinese government or Singapores Temasek Holdings or 3 of the major US security firms decide to have enough of our price raising bull****.
You're better off shorting the index since BHP is worth only 50% or something of that lol (still a massive risk).
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Vishalt, you've mistaken what I've said about the takeover. I think there is ZERO risk of BHP actually being taken over by anyone. The main risk to shorts is in the spread of RUMORS in regards to a BHP takeover. Regardless, I still think BHP is a decent short swing candidate, although it may try and hold at this lofty level for a week or two while undergoing distribution.
Mods, please delete the double post above.