Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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Nick, I have seen this kind of chart in early discussion when BHP is at $25 dollars, and falling. It's too long for me to read, as you said, it is useless after the fact.

To save me a bit of time, can you tell me what the price will be like tomorrow, in a week, and in a month with your crystal ball?
 
mmmmining said:
Nick, I have seen this kind of chart in early discussion when BHP is at $25 dollars, and falling. It's too long for me to read, as you said, it is useless after the fact.

To save me a bit of time, can you tell me what the price will be like tomorrow, in a week, and in a month with your crystal ball?
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:confused: This was two weeks ago.....whats so hard to read about this? Looks like its right on the money so far! And i mean ON the money, its uncanny.

Cheers,
 
Love the chart Nick, I took a punt and went short on close.

No method, in fact my estimation is for the stock to go higher but felt like a punt for the heck of it! We'll see if my wife still loves me at open tomorrow.

If your predictions are right, I'm putting in long and large on the bounce...

Cheers

hector
 
hector said:
Love the chart Nick, I took a punt and went short on close.

No method, in fact my estimation is for the stock to go higher but felt like a punt for the heck of it! We'll see if my wife still loves me at open tomorrow.

If your predictions are right, I'm putting in long and large on the bounce...

Cheers

hector
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It gapped up so far today that its likely to me to retrace a bit to fill the gap a bit...not entirely as BHP and RIO etc, don't always fill thier gaps.

Cheers,
 
mmmmining said:
Nick, I have seen this kind of chart in early discussion when BHP is at $25 dollars, and falling. It's too long for me to read, as you said, it is useless after the fact.

To save me a bit of time, can you tell me what the price will be like tomorrow, in a week, and in a month with your crystal ball?
Click to expand...

Mmmmmmmmining.......... what are you actually saying here....... Nick's analysis was right on the mark......... And whilst he is saying that considering the gap today, it's a bit outdated, it at least a picture of where he thought the stock was at a few weeks back.

As for what the price is at any stage, who knows??? But by using wave analysis and TA, what Nick is illustrating is how to establish a high reward/ low risk scenario. Isn't that what we are all looking for? I have subscribed to Nick's service in the past and it is very good - he is pretty honest and more than willing to admit when he is wrong. But his stats in his various model portfolio's speak for themselves.

Hector, mate, after today's strong close the last place you want to be here is short. Just as you shouldn't try pick bottoms, IMO don't try picking tops. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the $32 level again, not sure when, but it is on the cards.

Duc, yes, plenty of leverage in the earnings. And you would have to ask the question of where they can go from here. But remember that fundamentals don't always move markets in the way you expect them. Eventually, BHP will run out of steam. But at the present stage, the TA is pretty clear - strong price action. Therefore, trade accordingly IMO.

Cheers
 
Howabout those analysts hey?

Where did the bears think the $10bn of cash was going to go for an undergeared company?

Are the charts bullish yet? As bullish as yesterday?

Who cares?

Massive buy back, massive new investment and still only 20% balance sheet leverage.

Who to buy next with an accretive deal - OXR, RIO, ANGLO???

Fancy the Chinese still buying commodities hey

What a great report

Upgrades Upgrades Upgrades
 
mmmmining said:
Nick, I have seen this kind of chart in early discussion when BHP is at $25 dollars, and falling. It's too long for me to read, as you said, it is useless after the fact.

To save me a bit of time, can you tell me what the price will be like tomorrow, in a week, and in a month with your crystal ball?
Click to expand...

No need to read, just click the VIDEO ANALYSIS and you can kick back and have a listen instead
 
Seaking said:
No need to read, just click the VIDEO ANALYSIS and you can kick back and have a listen instead
Click to expand...

Isn't it GREAT! I've been listening for months. $50 per month, i'd nearly pay that to listen to the frogs and crickets at nite in the background!

Sorry to sound over enthusiastic but i'm a bit of a fan. :D

Cheers,
 
BSD said:
Are the charts bullish yet? As bullish as yesterday?
Click to expand...

BSD

HAHAHA...... I guess you have reason to have a go at all that gave you grief when the price was bottoming out at $24.00.......

But for the record mate, I looked at the chart on Tuesday morning, looked strong.... it broke the 26.50 barrier on heavy volume and I was happy to commit to a long position at close Tues via a warrant. Needless to say that I made 20% return in a day's hold. And this was all done by analysing the chart via price action.........

Cheers
 
My point is when BHP is $24, where is this chart?

I can predict every day, every hour, and every minutes in the past, but I cannot predict the share price next hour, tomorrow, next week, and next month. Get it? If I can, I don't need to make and sell the video to make a living.
 
mmmmining said:
My point is when BHP is $24, where is this chart?

I can predict every day, every hour, and every minutes in the past, but I cannot predict the share price next hour, tomorrow, next week, and next month. Get it? If I can, I don't need to make and sell the video to make a living.
Click to expand...

Nobody can predict, only improve the odds of being correct using probablilities. Thats why most of us wait until we have confirmation of the trend, and sometimes its much later. Then we manage the trade to cut the losses (mistakes) and let the winners run.

For the record, I'm sure that Nick Radge does what he does to share his passion for technical analysis, and he would earn far more from his past trading and current investments than from his books or his website.

Your right, he doesn't need to do it, but thankfully he does.

Cheers,
 
Canaussieuck.

I have no problem with Technical Analysis. As a matter of fact it was one of my subject for my post-graduate study. I am not thinking like a chartist, but I am taking the advantage of a chartist thinking whenever there is an opportunity.
 
mmmmining said:
Canaussieuck.

I have no problem with Technical Analysis. As a matter of fact it was one of my subject for my post-graduate study. I am not thinking like a chartist, but I am taking the advantage of a chartist thinking whenever there is an opportunity.
Click to expand...
I can guarantee you that if you get 10 chartists in a room you'll get 11 opinions (to steal from the old EW cliche')

So what is chartist thinking then? :rolleyes:
 
BSD said:
Howabout those analysts hey?

Where did the bears think the $10bn of cash was going to go for an undergeared company?

Are the charts bullish yet? As bullish as yesterday?

Who cares?

Massive buy back, massive new investment and still only 20% balance sheet leverage.

Who to buy next with an accretive deal - OXR, RIO, ANGLO???

Fancy the Chinese still buying commodities hey

What a great report

Upgrades Upgrades Upgrades
Click to expand...
Meanwhile, plenty of other stocks have flown over the last year, while this mangy stinking flea bitten dog did nothing. Nice! LOL

Disclaimer: long the mangy stinking flea bitten dog. lol
 
ducati916 said:
To take a SHORT entry, you have to try and look at the chart kennas posted, and look to go short circa $26.50, near the top band of the Bollinger.
Currently, as indicated by the same chart $24 is a major psychological support point [it has zero fundamental significance] from the May correction.

jog on
d998
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Posted the 10'th of January 2007

The fundamentals of BHP are poor.
The markets that they rely upon, are over-heated.
Currently as enzo has observed, it's churning in a range, good if you can trade the swings.

jog on
d998
 
Fab said:
Could anyone give me an example of how the off market buy back works. My understanding is that there is a big incentive in buying some BHP today (too late) or tomorrow to get the incentive of the franking credit and capital loss from Off market buy back. My issue is I don’t quite understand how it works and would appreciate some explanation on the benefits of doing that.

Cheers
Click to expand...

Back to this question, can someone explain with an example how this works from the point of view to CGT.

WBII
 
Warren Buffet II said:
Back to this question, can someone explain with an example how this works from the point of view to CGT.

WBII
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It is very heavy staff. Go read the booklet. If you don't have one, download it from the company website. Very simple rules, for Superfund, very good, set it and buy back. For any other purpose, depends.
 
mmmmining said:
It is very heavy staff. Go read the booklet. If you don't have one, download it from the company website. Very simple rules, for Superfund, very good, set it and buy back. For any other purpose, depends.
Click to expand...

It is easy to find the info:
http://www.bhpbilliton.com.au/bb/in...ffmarketBuybackOfBhpBillitonLimitedShares.jsp

what I am after is what this means:
Tax Value will be calculated pursuant to the ATO guidelines (detailed in Tax Determination 2004/22) which effectively provide that the Tax Value will be the five day VWAP of BHP Billiton Limited shares on the ASX up to and including 6 February 2007 and will be adjusted for the movement in the BHP Billiton Plc share price from the closing price on the London Stock Exchange on 6 February 2007 to the opening price on the London Stock Exchange on the closing date of the buy-back (23 March 2007)

WBII
 
The off market buy back is very good specially if you bought few years ago and are sitting on a big CGT by selling back through the buy back you are turning your CGT into a capital loss . Great :) + getting the 20c / share dividend payment . That is why I bought everything I could of BHP today even though they went down they will never go back to $2.50 within 45 days.
It is even better if you do that within a DIY super fund
 
Fab said:
That is why I bought everything I could of BHP today even though they went down they will never go back to $2.50 within 45 days.
Click to expand...

Fab
The recent rise in BHP stock price has been great - but mate, never say never. The stock was $24.00 almost exactly a month ago - $4.00 from where it is now. Personally, I would doubt we will see those levels again for a while, but to say that it will never do that is fraught with danger.

If you are looking to extract value out of dividends/capital returns, BHP is hardly the pick of the bunch. Try one of the many infrastructure trusts, buy a warrant and extract the dividend. These provide much better yields and are more stable - just my opinion though!

Cheers
 
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