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BHP - BHP Group

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kennas said:
BHP is still toying with us. Just which was is it going to go? Aaaaahhhhh!!!

Looks pretty tenuous to me..
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I see some divergence, the share price is down recently, but the volume is not up.
 
Looking at getting 1000 BHP at some stage soon, unsure if they are going to drop to $24 again though.

Am just a bit cautios with the market being at all time highs in a resource boom, and BHP is over 20% down on 52 week highs...
 
Ken said:
Looking at getting 1000 BHP at some stage soon, unsure if they are going to drop to $24 again though.

Am just a bit cautios with the market being at all time highs in a resource boom, and BHP is over 20% down on 52 week highs...
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Getting closer!
 
i find it interesting that BHP is trading at PE of 10, for the fear of a commodity downturn in the next couple of yrs. While stocks such as CDU, who have no real production but MAYBE a great asset, is trading at massive premium...

I mean, by the time they have the facilities up and running, the resource boom should be well and truely over?

either the market is under pricing BHP , or over pricing small/mid cap resources stock. what do u guys think?
 

I guess you have answered your own question. Do you believe that the commodity boom is over or not?

Having visited US and China recently, my answer is a big "NO". After you owned your first car, do you want to trade it for a bicycle? "NO WAY, JOSE!"

China will continuously be a big commodity consumer, but also a wiser consumer. Their car is small, air-conditioner is more energy efficient and quite. They can achieve the same living standards with one-third of resources American used. But Chinese population is 4 times as much.

I don't need to mention India's population. Just guess how many Vietnamese are there? You might be surprised that is about 4 times of us. I was shocked when told by a Vietnam friend, and verified on the internet. I thought the Americans have killed most of the VietCon. No offense, I highly respect Vietnamese, they are smart, hard working, brave, and friendly.

there are about 21m Aussie (maybe less if counted by Pauline Hanson), How about our "friendly" neighbor, Indonesia, 245m, others in on the top of the list:

Brazil 188m, Pakistan 166m, Bangladesh 147m, Russia 142m, Nigeria 131m, Mexico 107m, Philippines 89m, Vietnam 84m, Egypt 79m, Ethiopia 75m, Turkey 70m, Iran, 69m, Thailand 64m, Congo 63m, Burma 47m...

Now they are able to know how other people live through globalized media. They want to live life like you and I materially. All sort of commodities are something required to get them there.

You might count how much money you have made on one of the resource juniors operated in Zambia, or Jibasigar. The development of resources industry in developing countries is transforming from resources exploitation to economy stimulation through foreign investments on roads, ports, power, utilities, school, housing, and commercial centers, etc... , and in turn put on demand on commodities in these countries.

And in turn, developing countries will want to have bigger cut of the pie!! It is happening. Nationalize assets, windfall profit tax, increased royalty and company tax, foreign investment restriction, etc, making the commodities more scarce!

All these point it out to a sustainable commodities prices if not going any higher.

But I need to watch out, and stay away from easily recyclable commodities. All developing countries are excellent reclyclers!

And also I stay away from so called dual-use commodities (Jewelry and industrial) Do you want to hang on a piece of industrial metal around your neck?
 
And the Uranium.

Holding the Olympic Dam resorce, the largest U resource in the world, and it could be possibly bigger has hardly been factored into the price.

With spot prices hitting $72 a pound, BHP is due a big dividend from U after its current contracts expire over the next few years!

Sooner or later people will realise this and rather rate it on a PE of 10 for current production, will rate it much higher on its future potential.

Early in the new year I think the share price will start moving towards the low $30s again.
 
MiningGuru said:
Early in the new year I think the share price will start moving towards the low $30s again.
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If commods generally hold ok then I agree. BHPs chart is still generally sideways and more down atm if anything.

I agree with Jan as a possible date for appreciation, with the OD expansion/resource upgrade/feasibility study due.
 
kennas said:
If commods generally hold ok then I agree. BHPs chart is still generally sideways and more down atm if anything.

I agree with Jan as a possible date for appreciation, with the OD expansion/resource upgrade/feasibility study due.
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Kennas, Can you please update the chart? Thanks. I think the volume is up today.
 
mmmmining said:
Kennas, Can you please update the chart? Thanks. I think the volume is up today.
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Vol up a little. I'll be happier when it gets back over $26 and stays there. MUCH happier when it gets to the green circle. Higher highs is what we need. Breaking $28.15 ish could almost be a breakout for BHP. Also watch for the MACD to be breaking up through the signal line. Let's hope we're analysing it around there early in the new year....
 

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BHP update;

From last week;
 

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BHP sales volume is huge today compared to prior days!

Noted that there were large trades prior to opening with trans OSXT, LTXT and EP

Does any one know what us happening?

Perhaps BHP selling shares from their future fund!

Volume -----value --------- date/time
41,638,504 1,059,244,013 22-Dec 10:41:31

Date --------Open ---High ---Low ----Close ---Volume
21-Dec-2006 25.6000 25.6200 25.2900 25.2900 30,684,109
20-Dec-2006 25.5000 25.8600 25.4700 25.7700 21,503,582
19-Dec-2006 25.4000 25.4900 25.3200 25.3200 18,733,197
18-Dec-2006 25.8500 25.9300 25.5600 25.6700 17,572,957
15-Dec-2006 26.0500 26.1600 25.9800 26.0200 11,956,293
14-Dec-2006 25.6400 25.9800 25.5800 25.9000 18,815,262
13-Dec-2006 25.4500 25.6400 25.3600 25.4200 22,767,590
12-Dec-2006 25.7700 25.8900 25.6500 25.6500 15,576,619
11-Dec-2006 25.8800 25.9500 25.7200 25.9500 16,506,055
08-Dec-2006 26.1900 26.2400 25.9000 25.9600 17,139,384
07-Dec-2006 26.5200 26.6100 26.3500 26.4000 13,167,364
06-Dec-2006 26.6500 26.7100 26.5300 26.7100 16,596,900
05-Dec-2006 26.4100 26.5000 26.2600 26.3100 22,996,776
04-Dec-2006 25.9100 26.1400 25.8800 26.0000 15,692,965
01-Dec-2006 26.3800 26.3800 25.8700 25.9300 13,936,326
30-Nov-2006 26.2000 26.2600 26.1000 26.2300 16,259,860
 

There is plenty of news about at the moment. Could have something to do with 2007 Contract Iron Ore prices being struck. CVRD just struck a 9.5% rise with Baosteel, this is a good number for the producers. Also, there is likely to be plenty of sellers as the copper price really took a dive overnight.
 
PM note just received on large volume today suggested that:

"its all option expiry volume put thru the market-nothing sinister at all"
 
Don Argus the yesterday bought 11500 shares on market at $25.19

Last year just before Christmas he bought a significant parcel as well.

Just after that the shares in BHP started to surge.

Does Don Argus know what he knew last year?

Will there be a post Xmas surge?
 
Re bhp: Noticed Don Argus dropped some small change from his pocket this morning , he picked up a lazy 11,500 shares to round of his small parcel to
307,495 !!!! life must be tough living on struggle street.
cheers from the aussie battler!
 
i accidently bought 400 bhp shares at $25.32 after i thought i cancelled the order.

ever happened to anyone before???

i now have a 1000 of them at a an average price of $25.90 holding long term

bought the 400 through a margin loan, so will try pay them off by april next year and have another look.

not too worried i guess..


how are these 9% price rise going to effect bhp? it looks positive to get a rise in cost of steel....
 

Don't forget the falling copper prices as well. Investors are weighing both the upside (higher iron ore prices) and downside (plummeting copper prices). It's hard to tell which side is heavier now.
 
Ken said:
i accidently bought 400 bhp shares at $25.32 after i thought i cancelled the order.

ever happened to anyone before???

i now have a 1000 of them at a an average price of $25.90 holding long term
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Ken,

Same happenned to me at closing auction 19th Dec CFD order to market. Can't understand how it happened as I was sure I hadn't placed a contingent order.

Was pleased to be up $700 at close on 20th, and then disappointed to give it all back and hit stop yesterday. Got to improve on taking profits!

AC
 
Devil
I picked up 2000, but I actually meant to.
Copper will impact negatively, but nickel will more than compensate.
A 9.5% price rise for iron ore is not a guarantee that the mining boom is full steam ahead, but it's certainly telling us that the market will be again tighter in 2007.
More steel output should also mean more need for nickel and zinc, and these latter two metals are where one needs to look if you are not going the big diversified route.
 

For me personally to take advantage of high nickel and zinc prices, i would probably be looking at more purer plays.
 
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