- Joined
- 20 November 2005
- Posts
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- Reactions
- 92
BOTTOM LINE
12/12:
EW Trend: Up (?)
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
17/11:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
LAYMANS ANALYSIS
12/12:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 48 secs)
BHP is struggling here. If it weren't for the bigger picture it could be easily concluded that prices were in a down trend rather than a larger up trend. The critical level is the September low of $24.06. A break down through there will place the trend on notice and would also indicate that BHP has a lot more work to do at these lower levels before any resumption of the multi year trend can be considered again. Until then, we may well see prices dip below the recent double bottom at $25.55 and $25.52. I'd say that we'll see those beaten by a few cents - just enough to stop weaker hands out. Those lows offer an obvious protective stop placement point so it's a good chance that they'll be tested. If they are tested, then prices start to rally, it's a very positive sign. Stand aside until better clarity is showing.
17/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 3 secs)
If you've been watching these pages closely you may see that BHP analysis has just been slightly altered. The depth of the decline over the last week took the immediate bullish momentum off the stock suggesting that the recent highs were in fact the completion of that 5-wave pattern. Not all is lost because we should now travel higher in a new 5-wave pattern which could see BHP through $35.00. I am not going to make a formal recommendation here at the moment, but if you're looking to trade BHP then buy on a break of $26.71 and place a protective stop below todays low of $25.90. I will look to make a formal recommendation over the next week or so.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
12/12:
The Elliott Wave count is now unclear and the Golden Rule is that when the count is unclear one should stand aside. The move down to wave-2 was a swift move; more like an impulse move rather than a corrective move. The last 2-weeks have been choppy suggesting a correction and not the expected impulse. A break through the minor double bottom followed by an upside rejection is in fact a very bullish trading signal known as a "fake-out". It's like a bluff and tends to suck in the stop losses before prices reverse higher. If we did see that then prices break higher through $26.71 I'd be a lot more confident about the immediate future for BHP, but until then, I'm certainly concerned that we may have another leg lower toward that $24.00 support.
17/11:
Today's price and volume activity were very bullish. A gap open, a close on the days high and a good volume bar suggests buyers are back in. The recent retracement passed through the lower degree wave-i high so I am suggesting now that the smaller structure did in fact complete at the $28.29 level and we're seeing a wave-2 decline now. The bullish price/volume action seen today coincided with the typical retracement zone for a wave-2, being between 50.0% and 61.8% of the prior 5-wave advance. I like the look of BHP and we should not see those $24.00 lows again. The target for the wave-3 in this structure is $31.00 and the early wave-5 target is through $35.00.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
12/12:
EW Trend: Up (?)
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
17/11:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
LAYMANS ANALYSIS
12/12:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 48 secs)
BHP is struggling here. If it weren't for the bigger picture it could be easily concluded that prices were in a down trend rather than a larger up trend. The critical level is the September low of $24.06. A break down through there will place the trend on notice and would also indicate that BHP has a lot more work to do at these lower levels before any resumption of the multi year trend can be considered again. Until then, we may well see prices dip below the recent double bottom at $25.55 and $25.52. I'd say that we'll see those beaten by a few cents - just enough to stop weaker hands out. Those lows offer an obvious protective stop placement point so it's a good chance that they'll be tested. If they are tested, then prices start to rally, it's a very positive sign. Stand aside until better clarity is showing.
17/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 3 secs)
If you've been watching these pages closely you may see that BHP analysis has just been slightly altered. The depth of the decline over the last week took the immediate bullish momentum off the stock suggesting that the recent highs were in fact the completion of that 5-wave pattern. Not all is lost because we should now travel higher in a new 5-wave pattern which could see BHP through $35.00. I am not going to make a formal recommendation here at the moment, but if you're looking to trade BHP then buy on a break of $26.71 and place a protective stop below todays low of $25.90. I will look to make a formal recommendation over the next week or so.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
12/12:
The Elliott Wave count is now unclear and the Golden Rule is that when the count is unclear one should stand aside. The move down to wave-2 was a swift move; more like an impulse move rather than a corrective move. The last 2-weeks have been choppy suggesting a correction and not the expected impulse. A break through the minor double bottom followed by an upside rejection is in fact a very bullish trading signal known as a "fake-out". It's like a bluff and tends to suck in the stop losses before prices reverse higher. If we did see that then prices break higher through $26.71 I'd be a lot more confident about the immediate future for BHP, but until then, I'm certainly concerned that we may have another leg lower toward that $24.00 support.
17/11:
Today's price and volume activity were very bullish. A gap open, a close on the days high and a good volume bar suggests buyers are back in. The recent retracement passed through the lower degree wave-i high so I am suggesting now that the smaller structure did in fact complete at the $28.29 level and we're seeing a wave-2 decline now. The bullish price/volume action seen today coincided with the typical retracement zone for a wave-2, being between 50.0% and 61.8% of the prior 5-wave advance. I like the look of BHP and we should not see those $24.00 lows again. The target for the wave-3 in this structure is $31.00 and the early wave-5 target is through $35.00.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
