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Re: BHP - Price weakness

The Estimator said:
Any thoughts? 3 steady gains in a row without the rediculous pogo-ing thats been going on the last month. Is it getting back on track or is it a last gasp before heamoraging? I'm only new to this game and my charting is pretty crap at the best of times but I'm thinking if it goes through 2080 it could be the start of a steady up trend.

John

DISCLAIMER
I suck
Click to expand...


Gday Estimator :)
Imo its into no mans land, meaning its not overbought or sold, and will prob drift for a while to come.. Be ready to trade the break on support or resistance lines.
And Im still a bull on bhp in general....We really are in a commodities boom dont forget..
P.S. Love your Disclaimer. :)
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Rockon2 said:
Gday Estimator :)
Imo its into no mans land, meaning its not overbought or sold, and will prob drift for a while to come.. Be ready to trade the break on support or resistance lines.
And Im still a bull on bhp in general....We really are in a commodities boom dont forget..
P.S. Love your Disclaimer. :)
Click to expand...

Hehe yeah, I wouldn't want someone to take something I said on board without being fully aware that I suck
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Well it was kinda cool to pick an increase in the old girl (My first real forecast) but it was bitter sweet. I got onto some warrants last month and then the pogoing ensued. Since National online doesnt have a trailing stoploss or any stoploss that I'm aware of and so much seesawing in the price I set a break even plus 15% sell point incase I missed a good increase while working. I basically wanted to get out. Well I hadnt reset it and I was real busy all morning. I check it out at lunch time and my warrants sold for 150 but continued on to 173. Well lesson learned. Time to find an online broker with some stoploss tools and so forth. Also might be time to get a system down on paper.

John
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

UBS re rate BHP from Neutral 2, to Buy 2. This translated into a modest gain on Friday but BHP traded much better over night, on both the DOW and the FTSE up 3.281 and 3.19 respectively.:bananasmi

The strength of these solid gains "should" flow through to our market on Monday with perhaps, maybe a 3% gain or 0.62 cents.:2twocents

My views are obviously pure speculation. Even with all the research and charts in the world the market will invarible do the exact opposite of what I expect. Thankfully for me my short term losses are asborbed by the gains in my long term holds. :)
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Deutche Bank re rates BHP :2twocents

FYI

Deutsche ups BHP Billiton price target
Source: LONDON REU
Date: 2005-Sep-17 07:49 AM
Deutsche Bank raised its BHP Billiton share price target to 960 pence from 910p on Friday after the bank upgraded its oil price forecasts.

"Further upgrades to oil price outlook serve to reinforce the dynamics of energy in the commodity complex," Deutsche said in a research note.

The bank rates its top picks for the mining sector - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xtrata - at "buy".


:shoot: :bigun2:
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Very interesting article in today's SMH. Includes a number of interviews with geoligists and mining executives from BHP, RIO, Portman etc.

All very bullish about Chinese demand and actually state that operations at both BHP and RIO are currently running a full capacity. Both BHP & RIO are undergoing major expansion plans to cope with the existing demand from China.

The article focuses on China's current industrial revolution spurred on by it's emerging (exploding middle class demographic), what the article does not mention is that India is picking up pace. If you factor the demand from India into this equation then the price of Iron Ore is going to rocket.

and by the way there is a huge skill shortage

Interesting times ahead for our miners..........

Article to long to post, so here is the link.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/iron-awe/2005/09/23/1126982229167.html
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Overseas Markets eye Aussie Resource stocks.....:aus:

Specifically BHP, which performed very strongly over night, closing up 2.318% on the DOW & up 2.54% on the FTSE.

Currently up 2.43% on the ASX @ 11.36am:2twocents

FYI - UBS has recently announced that they have revised their 06 price foreast for Iron Ore from -20% to +10%. :bananasmi
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

More Good News for BHP and other miners


FYI - Article in Mining News


Zinc, copper, iron ore big winners: MacBank


Monday, September 26, 2005
MACQUARIE has upgraded its price forecasts for a swag of commodities due to supply tightness and Chinese demand, with zinc, copper and iron ore amongst those enjoying the stronger rises.

Zinc miners will be around 30% better off than previously expected in the years 2007-2009 due to "lethargic supply growth", with prices for those three years now put at US75c/lb, US70c/lb and US60c/lb respectively.

Macquarie has raised its expected copper price by around 17% next year to $US1.40/lb, while the nickel forecast in 2006 is up 3.8% to $US6.75/lb.

However Macquarie's 2005 nickel price has been reduced by 4.1% to $US6.75/lb because of recent short term weakness.

The thermal coal outlook has also been downgraded (in 2006) due to increased output from Indonesia – down 8% to $US48 per tonne.

Meantime Macquarie has become the latest to raise expectations of further rises in the iron ore price, with its 15% increase in the short term reflecting the "incredible ongoing strength of Chinese steel production".

Furthermore, the bank believes that the ongoing need for high cost Indian and domestic iron ore to stay in the market to plug the gap between supply and demand "should support contract prices at high levels for many years to come" – though some "pullback" in 2007-2010 is "conservatively" forecast.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

FYI - Article in today's Mining News

China, India driving metal prices


Friday, October 07, 2005
FALLING prices on world stock markets has not dimmed enthusiasm among metal traders who continue to see rising demand and rising prices as China and India expand rapidly.

Barclays Capital was the leader in a pack for forecasters who overnight tipped a continued upward trend in base metals, raising its forecast price for copper in the current quarter to $US3900 a tonne from a previous $US3280/t.

During the first quarter of 2006 the average copper price could be as high as $US4000/t.

Driving the optimism is a continued decline in stockpile and inventory levels caused by rising rates of consumption.

The increases forecast by Barclays looked easily achievable last night with copper on the London Metal Exchange trading at $US3882.5/t.

Edward Meir from Man Financial told Dow Jones that: "we now could move much higher, as the intermediate trend has once again re-established itself. We could be targeting the next psychological resistance, as we are literally in unchartered territory."

The latest surge in the copper price is in direct contrast to a series of forecasts made over the past few months which tipped falling metal prices in the final quarter of 2005.

However, the market has been heavily influenced by inventory levels and continued disruption at key mines and metal smelters, including a series of strikes in Canada.

Adding to the mood of optimism that prices might continue to climb was a prediction in Melbourne from the chief executive of Falconbridge, Derek Pannell, that a lack of new mining projects would push prices higher for the next 10 years.

Pannell also raised the possibility of a fresh burst of "consolidation" in the sector with market leaders such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and CVRD looking for acquisitions.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

BHP not looking good imo. My money is on it retesting support at 1950, maybe even falling through (which'll be dramatic). I thought it could breakthrough but it's lost steam, with the bad news about the GoM production losses things may not brighten up anytime soon.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Does anyone know the date that they finalise negotiations on next years Iron Ore price ? (post April 06 deliveries) I think it's anyday now.

If they manage to lock in a 17% increase as McQuarie is spruiking you should see a very good lift in SP
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Mmmm...........Just got stopped out, sold all my BHP holdings.

I think I will leave BHP until I know when the new Iron Ore price negotiations are due to complete.

This years price was finalised in Jan 05 but I think they are working on finalising next years pricing sooner then Jan 06, I thought it was in the next couple of weeks ???.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Bring on the panic selling.

I bought some in May for $16. Have heaps at $7 and $8.

This is one fine stock to hold for the long term. The silly thing about this correction of BHP is that the worry is inflation. Well who is going to benefit? The oil producers, the gas producers, the coal producers. Oil is now being released from strategic reserves.This wont last. BHP is currently getting a pitance for it's uranium. In a few years the Western Mining contract can be redone. It's all good.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

The Once-ler said:
Bring on the panic selling.

I bought some in May for $16. Have heaps at $7 and $8.

This is one fine stock to hold for the long term. The silly thing about this correction of BHP is that the worry is inflation. Well who is going to benefit? The oil producers, the gas producers, the coal producers. Oil is now being released from strategic reserves.This wont last. BHP is currently getting a pitance for it's uranium. In a few years the Western Mining contract can be redone. It's all good.
Click to expand...

Agree that BHP is good for long term holders but near term it looks a bit weak. That $19.50 support I mentioned is crucial imo, thousands of technical traders in the market would be keeping their eyes on it, it's such an easy level to spot, when you start seeing moderate gaps down in the daily price action you'll know panic/excitement has set in. The oil revenue cut and expectations of further adverse weather conditions doesn't bode well in the short term (btw, heard a theory that Typhoon may have been rammed by another platform which had cut loose). BHP hasn't got the best dividend yield either. Basically a tough one to get into now with the market in this mood.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Yeah I got back in partly sub $20 on Friday and looking at more buying opp sub $20, but not tomorrow. May dip later in the week again.Will rebound tomorrow one would suspect. Long ons for tomorrow!!!
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Wkly chart of BHP showing simple trend/support lines. Daily chart with much the same, note some of those wild days with large gaps as prices whizzed around- a large co but can be volatile. (some of the lines gave me some trouble, couldn't quite draw it properly, so it may look a bit crooked, just trying to get an idea of the trend, that's all, so don't rely on this as advice please as I'm usually wrong).

I just notice the dates on the charts are different but they are both as of eod Friday 14th of October 2005.
 

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Re: BHP - Price weakness

Thanks for the chart Richkid, support at around 19.70 and resistance at around 22.30

It looks like a breakout is coming but irrespective of the chart, the announcement of the new prices for Iron Ore post April 06 is crucial. The market has factured in a 10% increase, I expect that anymore will see a good rally and any less will see the stock get dumped (short term).

So when will the new prices announced ???, anyone out there with any idea ???
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

In The West today....

Chinese push for 10pc cut in iron ore prices

NEALE PRIOR


Government-owned Chinese metals importer Sinosteel said yesterday it was hoping for a 5 per cent to 10 per cent cut in the price of iron ore next year as it sought a bigger say in annual pricing negotiations for the major steel ingredient.

Sinosteel president Huang Tianwen said he believed the 71.5 per cent price increase agreed between major Japanese steel mills and the major Australian iron ore producers for 2005-06 was too high and a cut next year would help the sustainability of the industry.

"For the long-time interest of iron ore suppliers, including BHP it will be beneficial," he told WestBusiness yesterday. "We are hoping the price of iron ore next year should be balanced."

Mr Huang made the comments after signing an agreement with West Perth-based iron ore hopeful Midwest Corporation for a joint venture that could see Sinosteel and Midwest jointly develop the Australian company's high-grade Weld Range and low-grade Koolanooka deposits east of Geraldton.

Sinosteel has agreed to kick in $16.3 million to fund a feasibility study into a $1.5 billion mining and infrastructure development.

The investment comes as Chinese steel mills, which are supplied with raw materials by Sinosteel, undergo a massive production boom that is likely to see steel production increase this year to 340 million tonnes from 272.5 million tonnes last year.

China has traditionally been a smaller player than Japan in the iron ore market but it now attempting to flex its muscle as it becomes the world's biggest producer of steel, feeding booming construction of property and infrastructure in the world's most populous nation.

Mr Huang raised doubts about whether Chinese mills would continue to accept prices agreed between their Japanese rivals and the big three iron ore miners, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazilian major CVRD.

He pointed to BHP Billiton in April dropping a demand for Chinese steels mills to pay a 100 per cent increase, a capitulation that came just as Prime Minister John Howard was heading to Beijing to discuss a free trade agreement.

Mr Huang said China previously had not been in a position to play a big role in price negotiations because of its relatively small tonnages, but it now had a powerful position in the world iron ore market.

He said he believed the power of the Chinese steel mills would be reinforced at the upcoming season of negotiations over the 2006-07 iron ore prices. "We are determined to win our rights as soon as possible," he said. Sinosteel and other Chinese steel players would attempt to play a bigger role in setting the price and not necessarily follow what was agreed between the Japanese mills and the big miners.

Neither Midwest nor Sinosteel would give an estimated time for the development of Midwest's tenements, but Mr Huang said his group wanted to fast track the development provided the reserves and specifications stacked up during the feasibility process and the market remained strong.

"The quicker the better," he said.

att The reporter owns BHP Billiton shares.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Thanks for the article, interesting considering the market has already factored in a 10 - 15% rise in Iron Ore for 2006. If China is successfull in negotiating a 5% decrease, BHP's SP will suffer a minor melt down.
 
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