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BHP - BHP Group

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Chipp said:
i think you will get that opportunity later in year , My algo suggest that and with IO in the toilet and this class action hitting headlines in a larger sense in H2 it looks probable . Just my opinion and worth what you paid for it .
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i will watch and watch ( and think )

they still have some ( part ) interests they acquired with the OZL deal , to deal with yet ( do they continue funding them , buy them out , or divest the shares ? )
 
divs4ever said:

Where might you go for exposure to copper, gold, silver and uranium with one trade?​


www.livewiremarkets.com

Where might you go for exposure to copper, gold, silver and uranium with one trade?

Copper, gold, silver and uranium are now in confirmed bull markets. Just one company is top ten in copper and uranium globally. That is BHP.
www.livewiremarkets.com www.livewiremarkets.com

i hold BHP

but would want it cheaper ( than currently ) before adding more
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Skate said:
General comment about iron ore (Off Topic)
I've invested in BHP and FMG because iron ore is crucial for our modern world. In essence, iron ore is the backbone of our modern way of life, supporting everything from hi-risers buildings to the vehicles we drive.

Without iron ore, our lives would grind to a halt. Countless industries rely on steel as the fundamental material for their products, and therefore, plays an indispensable role in fostering economic growth and driving technological advancement, the catalyst for progress.

In summary, iron ore's significance in our modern world cannot be overstated. It is the fabric of progress.

Skate.
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Garpal Gumnut said:
@debtfree

BHP is one of my picks in the ASF Y2024 Competition and a big Australian going well apart from the threat of a court case in London brought by peasants and landowners devastated by the Escondido disaster. Despite my self interest, I generally side with peasants rather than large companies, and do so in this matter. Their case however is tenuous and would only be heard in the English Jurisdiction which acts as a court for hire. Meanwhile the peasants in Brazil sit below the Fundao Dam in Bento Rodrigues and elsewhere unable to reach the original soil which is caked some metres below by tailings and mud.

It will settle or the peasants will be defeated. Either way I win unfortunately for those affected by the negligence of the primary felon in this case those oily mothers, Samarco and Vale. BHP would appear to be unfortunate, this however is not a defence in any court with which I am familiar. I see this as a cap on BHP's price which may not rise past $50 as a consequence in the short to medium term.

Britain may well be rid of the NHS before the judgement is finalised. These matters take decades.

gg
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Thanks Divsie @divs4ever

An interesting article and btw that uranium uranium world producers pie chart is getting a flogging, I've seen it in half a dozen articles on different commodity groupings for different miner articles.

Since posting my take on BHP I'm veering towards more positivity on BHP and may go earlier than you for a top up. Between now and the end of the year as @JohnDe @qldfrog @Skate and @Chipp intimated is a long time if this bull market confounds us all and goes for another year or three.

I enjoy having my mind changed by quality posts on ASF. thanks all.

gg
 
qldfrog said:
Hum. Next post gave you the warnings....maybe better to get 3 good specialised miners than one just bad at all
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I have looked at other miners and do hold a couple of minor ones as specs, sold a gold miner at its peak and looking at unloading the minors at some stage.
BHP has been good to me; recently I did contemplate selling for profit, but the dividends are nice, the SP has weathered the storms. And I believe that the world is coming out of its gloom and high inflation, and nations will start another massive manufacturing phase especially if Trump is the next President of the USA.
 
JohnDe said:
I have looked at other miners and do hold a couple of minor ones as specs, sold a gold miner at its peak and looking at unloading the minors at some stage.
BHP has been good to me; recently I did contemplate selling for profit, but the dividends are nice, the SP has weathered the storms. And I believe that the world is coming out of its gloom and high inflation, and nations will start another massive manufacturing phase especially if Trump is the next President of the USA.
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i hold BHP as a 'core holding ' the logic being it is too big to fail completely , or get taken over ( famous last words )

however i do hold several smaller dedicated miners , but take-overs complicate the strategy ( for example MCR and OZL )

i strongly prefer miners that are actually shipping product , but even some of those go belly-up ( PAN , and TRY as examples )

personally i don't see Trump ( or RFK ) being able to stop what is coming , soften the damage in the US maybe
 
Morgan Stanley this week told clients there were higher risks to BHP’s dividend payments given its elevated debt position and costs related to the Samarco mine disaster in Brazil, with legal proceedings in Britain due to start in October.

Shareholders could miss out on $1.3 billion in payouts over the year to June 30, assuming an approximate 10 per cent fall in dividends in line with market expectations....

Screenshot_20240412-103719_Chrome.jpg
 
Craton said:
If I recall correctly, it was Bill Harcourt who wrote that BHP (and a few others) should be a sheet anchor in any portfolio.
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was unaware of that , but after so many 'core holding ' candidates i had previously selected that traveled poorly , BHP has yet to be as discouraging as the others

( WOW , AMP , ORG , WBC )

yes i should have got into WES earlier , but novices don't always make good choices
 
up on this release :

(ASX:BHP) is confident it is heading for a solid production and sales performance for most of its portfolio by June. The company said on Thursday it remains on track to meet copper, iron ore, and energy coal production for the year. However, coking (metallurgical) coal guidance has been trimmed after the death of a worker at a central Queensland mine. BHP is still working out what to do with its Nickel West business and expects to be ready to make an announcement later this year. Iron ore is the key commodity for BHP and its major focus. It said on Thursday it had maintained its full-year iron-ore production guidance as third-quarter volumes edged higher compared with a year ago but were cut 7% compared with the final quarter of 2023 because of weather and other constraints.

BHP on Thursday said it produced 61.5 million tonnes of iron ore in the three months through March, up 3% from the first quarter of 2023. The latest quarter contained an extra day in February because of the leap year. It blamed heavy rainfall (which impacted other areas of WA’s huge mining sector), work on its rail infrastructure, and a bushfire for the decline in output compared with the December quarter (its second financial year quarter).

BHP, the world's third-biggest producer of iron ore behind Rio Tinto and Vale of Brazil, maintained its June 30 guidance for iron-ore output of between 254 million and 264.5 million tonnes. It said that output from its Samarco joint-venture with Brazil's Vale SA would be at the upper end of its 4.0 million-4.5 million tonnes guidance range. The company produced 6% more metallurgical coal than in the December quarter. Quarterly production of that commodity totaled 6.0 million tonnes, and BHP lowered its annual guidance to 21.5 million-22.5 million tonnes after production at one of its mines was halted for more than three days following the death of a worker in a vehicle incident.

BHP, which this month completed the sale to Whitehaven Coal of two metallurgical coal mines it had jointly owned with Japan's Mitsubishi, raised its metallurgical coal unit cost guidance to US$119-US$125 a tonne, from US$110-US$116 a tonne because of lower throughput. BHP said quarterly copper production jumped 7% to 465,900 tons, underpinned by increased production from its biggest operations, especially the emerging South Australian copper operation based on Olympic Dam and the two mines brought over in the takeover of Oz Minerals last year.

BHP said in Thursday’s release that it saw "Increased copper production driven by record production at Spence in Chile, strong operational performance at Copper South Australia (and the contribution from Prominent Hill and Carrapateena), and improved performance and grade at Escondida, also in Chile." With the two mines from Oz Minerals onboard, Copper South Australia lifted production 49%. BHP said it had its best-ever mining performance at Olympic Dam as well. BHP operates and has a majority stake in Chile's Escondida operation (where production rose 7%), the world's largest producer of copper concentrates and cathodes. Rio Tinto is the main minority shareholder.

In a statement with the report, BHP CEO Mike Henry said the company remains "on track to meet copper, iron ore, and energy coal production for the year.” “Copper volumes have increased by 10 per cent reflecting strong performance and additional tonnes from Copper South Australia, record year-to-date performance from Spence, and improved grades and production at Escondida,” he said. “Western Australia Iron Ore, the lowest-cost iron ore producer globally, delivered another consistent period of production despite heavy rainfall. We continue to invest in improvements to our rail and port operations, which are essential for growth in the medium term to 305 million tonnes per annum and beyond.

“At our BMA metallurgical coal operations in Queensland, significant wet weather including the impact of two tropical cyclones and operational challenges impacted production and unit costs, and we have revised guidance for the year. "We successfully completed the sale of the Blackwater and Daunia mines on 2 April for a total of up to US$4.1 bn (100%).

“In Canada, the Jansen Stage 1 project remains ahead of its initial schedule and is now 44 per cent complete. In Western Australia, we expect to announce a decision on the future of our nickel business in the coming months, where efforts to optimize operations and preserve value are underway."
 
Dona Ferentes said:
up on this release :

(ASX:BHP) is confident it is heading for a solid production and sales performance for most of its portfolio by June. The company said on Thursday it remains on track to meet copper, iron ore, and energy coal production for the year. However, coking (metallurgical) coal guidance has been trimmed after the death of a worker at a central Queensland mine. BHP is still working out what to do with its Nickel West business and expects to be ready to make an announcement later this year. Iron ore is the key commodity for BHP and its major focus. It said on Thursday it had maintained its full-year iron-ore production guidance as third-quarter volumes edged higher compared with a year ago but were cut 7% compared with the final quarter of 2023 because of weather and other constraints.

BHP on Thursday said it produced 61.5 million tonnes of iron ore in the three months through March, up 3% from the first quarter of 2023. The latest quarter contained an extra day in February because of the leap year. It blamed heavy rainfall (which impacted other areas of WA’s huge mining sector), work on its rail infrastructure, and a bushfire for the decline in output compared with the December quarter (its second financial year quarter).

BHP, the world's third-biggest producer of iron ore behind Rio Tinto and Vale of Brazil, maintained its June 30 guidance for iron-ore output of between 254 million and 264.5 million tonnes. It said that output from its Samarco joint-venture with Brazil's Vale SA would be at the upper end of its 4.0 million-4.5 million tonnes guidance range. The company produced 6% more metallurgical coal than in the December quarter. Quarterly production of that commodity totaled 6.0 million tonnes, and BHP lowered its annual guidance to 21.5 million-22.5 million tonnes after production at one of its mines was halted for more than three days following the death of a worker in a vehicle incident.

BHP, which this month completed the sale to Whitehaven Coal of two metallurgical coal mines it had jointly owned with Japan's Mitsubishi, raised its metallurgical coal unit cost guidance to US$119-US$125 a tonne, from US$110-US$116 a tonne because of lower throughput. BHP said quarterly copper production jumped 7% to 465,900 tons, underpinned by increased production from its biggest operations, especially the emerging South Australian copper operation based on Olympic Dam and the two mines brought over in the takeover of Oz Minerals last year.

BHP said in Thursday’s release that it saw "Increased copper production driven by record production at Spence in Chile, strong operational performance at Copper South Australia (and the contribution from Prominent Hill and Carrapateena), and improved performance and grade at Escondida, also in Chile." With the two mines from Oz Minerals onboard, Copper South Australia lifted production 49%. BHP said it had its best-ever mining performance at Olympic Dam as well. BHP operates and has a majority stake in Chile's Escondida operation (where production rose 7%), the world's largest producer of copper concentrates and cathodes. Rio Tinto is the main minority shareholder.

In a statement with the report, BHP CEO Mike Henry said the company remains "on track to meet copper, iron ore, and energy coal production for the year.” “Copper volumes have increased by 10 per cent reflecting strong performance and additional tonnes from Copper South Australia, record year-to-date performance from Spence, and improved grades and production at Escondida,” he said. “Western Australia Iron Ore, the lowest-cost iron ore producer globally, delivered another consistent period of production despite heavy rainfall. We continue to invest in improvements to our rail and port operations, which are essential for growth in the medium term to 305 million tonnes per annum and beyond.

“At our BMA metallurgical coal operations in Queensland, significant wet weather including the impact of two tropical cyclones and operational challenges impacted production and unit costs, and we have revised guidance for the year. "We successfully completed the sale of the Blackwater and Daunia mines on 2 April for a total of up to US$4.1 bn (100%).

“In Canada, the Jansen Stage 1 project remains ahead of its initial schedule and is now 44 per cent complete. In Western Australia, we expect to announce a decision on the future of our nickel business in the coming months, where efforts to optimize operations and preserve value are underway."
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Condensed Update
BHP is optimistic about achieving solid production and sales performance across most of its portfolio by June and expects to meet its production targets for copper, iron ore, and energy coal for the year. It should also be noted that BHP is still deciding on the future of its Nickel West business and plans to make an announcement later this year.

In summary, while BHP faces some challenges, it remains confident in its ability to meet its production goals for the year. However, the market will likely react to these developments, and it’s fair to say, it might not be in a positive way.

Skate.
 
Skate said:
Condensed Update
BHP is optimistic about achieving solid production and sales performance across most of its portfolio by June and expects to meet its production targets for copper, iron ore, and energy coal for the year. It should also be noted that BHP is still deciding on the future of its Nickel West business and plans to make an announcement later this year.

In summary, while BHP faces some challenges, it remains confident in its ability to meet its production goals for the year. However, the market will likely react to these developments, and it’s fair to say, it might not be in a positive way.

Skate.
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i notice the report didn't mention the OZL assets , are they having synergy issues there

sure the nickel assets may be delayed , but OZL had the copper assets working nicely
 
divs4ever said:
i notice the report didn't mention the OZL assets , are they having synergy issues there

sure the nickel assets may be delayed , but OZL had the copper assets...
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Really!?
.
" ... strong operational performance at Copper South Australia (and the contribution from Prominent Hill and Carrapateena), ..." ..
.... " With the two mines from Oz Minerals onboard, Copper South Australia lifted production 49%. ... '
 
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Dona Ferentes said:
Really!?
.
" ... strong operational performance at Copper South Australia (and the contribution from Prominent Hill and Carrapateena), ..." ..
.... " With the two mines from Oz Minerals onboard, Copper South Australia lifted production 49%. ... '
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the part i saw was all about Olympic Dam in South Australia and overseas copper projects

and mentioned Samanco in the iron ore outputs and of course 'the future of potash '
 
  • The major brokers have reviewed BHP's quarterly report and provided their latest research, ratings, and price targets
BHP Group released its third quarter production report yesterday. It was up only +0.3% on the day, against a broader market rise of +0.5%, and that’s with positive leads from copper, nickel, and iron ore prices on Wednesday.
Copper and nickel prices have surged even further overnight, and iron ore prices are hovering near 6-week highs. At the time of writing, BHP is down, so you could say it has been a lukewarm response to the quarterly report from investors so far.
The major brokers have been busy tweaking their numbers for BHP in light of the new data, and that means a fat pile of BHP research reports on my desk this morning! I’ve read them all, and here’s a summary of the best bits, along with the latest updates to ratings and price targets.

Citi​

Retained at BUY; Price Target: $48.00
  • March quarter production was broadly as expected
  • Care and maintenance, then closure, most likely for upcoming WA nickel business update
  • FY24/25 EBITDA revised down 2% due to adjustments in production volumes and lowered forecast for June quarter iron ore price from US$120 to US$110
  • BHP is trading on a FY26 price to earnings ratio (PE) of 11.3 and enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EV/EBITDA) of 5.5, this compared to long-term average of 14 and 6.4 respectively
  • “So valuation is still supportive and we are heading into the seasonally strong period for China steel production”

CLSA​

Retained at UNDERPERFORM; Price Target: $45.00 from $43.50
  • Price target upgrade is due to recent upturn in commodity prices
  • Negative weather impacts did not materially impact broadly achieving consensus estimates
  • Notes some concerns regarding Nickel West outcomes, rising costs
  • Still prefers Rio Tinto due to that company’s greater consistency in execution

Goldman Sachs​

Retained at BUY; Price Target: $49.00 from $49.20
  • March quarter production was “slightly stronger” that expected
  • Iron ore and copper production beat broker’s forecasts by 2%, but metallurgical coal production was 17% below expected
  • No change to FY24 and FY25 forecast earnings per share (EPS), but FY26 trimmed by 2%
  • Feels BHP valuation is “attractive” but remains “at a premium” to RIO
  • “We remain bullish on copper” says broker, BHP’s copper contribution to EBITDA is expected to increase from current 30% to 43% by FY26

JP Morgan​

Retained at OVERWEIGHT; Price Target: $52.00
  • March quarter iron ore and copper production was inline with expectations, but metallurgical coal and nickel were below expectations
  • Notes current support from attractive valuation and appreciates BHP’s exposure to improving base metals markets
  • Executing on planned operational improvements, as well as upcoming strategic reviews will be important in determining future performance

Macquarie​

Retained at NEUTRAL; Price Target: $42.00
  • March quarter iron ore and copper production was inline with expectations, as was metallurgical coal (but broker had very low expectations compared to consensus)
  • Copper performance was “key” to result
  • Broker sees “complexity” in BHP hitting its iron ore production target of 305 mtpa, even after accounting for fire and weather impacts
  • FY24 EPS forecast is cut by 1%, but by 2.3% for FY26 and beyond
  • “BHP's asset quality is unrivalled with WAIO, Escondida, Antamina and Jansen. Organic growth optionality is limited; new options are needed”, says the broker

Morgan Stanley​

Retained at EQUAL-WEIGHT; Price Target: $47.00
  • Broker reported no change to their investment thesis as a result of the March quarter update, but noted a “modest shortfall" in the company’s financial results versus consensus
  • Broker expects a “modest” revision lower to next 12-month consensus EPS

Morgans​

Retained at ADD; Price Target: $48.30 from $47.60
  • Operational performance was strong in the March quarter after taking into account weather impacts at coal operations
  • Iron ore and copper divisions are expected to maintain their strong performance
  • Broker notes positive progress at Jansen Stage 1
  • Broker notes BHP’s solid earnings quality and growth prospects

RBC Capital Markets​

Retained at SECTOR PERFORM; Price Target: $45.00
  • March quarter performance (ex-metallurgical coal) was better than expected
  • Metallurgical coal division triggers broker to downgrade its free cash flow (FCF) and EPS estimates
  • WA Nickel strategy update could be a risk event, and is expected by the time BHP reports FY24 results in August
  • Broker appreciates BHP’s strong FCF and its dividend yield

UBS​

Retained at NEUTRAL; Price Target: $44.00 from $45.00
  • Suggests March quarter performance was mixed, pointing out a strong copper result, but worse than expected results from metallurgical coal and nickel
  • Metallurgical coal and nickel performances have triggered a cut to FY24 EPS forecast
  • Broker indicates it still prefers RIO on the back of that company’s better FCF
  • Appreciated copper potential, particularly at Escondida and Spence, but remains concerned about nagging underperformance of metallurgical coal

should we pay attention to BHP broker consensus?​

 
Something interesting is brewing

BHP lobs offer for Anglo American​


Mining giant BHP has made a takeover bid for $56bn British resources giant Anglo American in what could shape up to be one of the biggest global resources deals this year.
A statement from the London-listed Anglo American said the proposal comprises an all-share offer by BHP, describing it as an “unsolicited, non-binding and highly conditional combination proposal”.

The offer price has not been disclosed but would be preceded by separate demergers by Anglo American of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum Limited and Kumba Iron Ore Limited to Anglo American shareholders.

The two parts of the proposal would be inter-conditional and need multiple regulatory and other approvals.

The London group’s board is currently reviewing this proposal with its advisers.

“There can be no certainty that any offer will be made nor as to the terms on which any such offer might be made,” it told investors.

BHP is yet to confirm the talks, but Anglo American has set a May 22 (UK) deadline for a firm intention to make the offer or walk away.

Bloomberg first reported the deal,quoting sources close to the deal, who said the talks were at an early stage.

Anglo American, which has coal and manganese mines in Australia, also operates in Brazil, China, Peru, South Africa and UK producing copper, nickel, platinum group metals, diamonds (through De Beers), iron ore and steelmaking coal.
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as if they didn't have enough stuff to get into a profit-making phase

more divestments down the track , perhaps ?
 
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