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BHP - BHP Group

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This chart shows why I'm considering buying BHP for a longer term conservative portfolio. This portfolio buys large cap stocks and index ETFs when prices are at lows. The R:R is much better when I trade reversals and pull-backs in these securities.

The chart may look crowded because I've super-imposed the XAO wave chart over the BHP bar chart. I do this to see the relative strength of stock compared to the XAO index. If you look back at Nov 23, the index was making a new low but BHP didn't, therefore BHP was stronger than the market and I prefer to buy stocks that are showing this relative strength.

Another example of BHP's relative strength is seen in Sep 22. The index was making a double bottom low whereas BHP wasn't.

Ignore the index waves. BHP is now at the 50-62% retracement zone (green rectangle) of the impulsive swing it made in Oct22. Even though the market very bullish BHP and the material sector is quite weak atm. It's likely that this pull-back trade setup may not form and price goes lower. If it does go lower then I'll wait for a reversal setup like that seen in Nov21.



Price is at a good spot for a pull-back setup but BHP is currently much weaker than the market. I'll probably wait for price to go lower and it would help if the market went lower as well. A BHP reversal setup would likely show a little more relative strength then also.

Edit: The RIO chart shows it's more bullish and stronger than BHP atm. Posting the RIO chart next.
 
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Technically I would let the base resolve before buying long.

1. It broke out of the base...which is a buy.
2. Spectacular failure, warning sign

3. Market does not like uncertainty. With the lawsuit you have plenty of uncertainty.
4. This lawsuit, whether successful or unsuccessful will take 3/4yrs to be decided.
5. It will almost certainly distract management (possibly with these chaps that might be a good thing).

Why would anyone be in a rush to buy this? There are many better opportunities.

jog on
duc
 
am certainly not rushing to buy ,

was buying in one portfolio during this debacle ( and reducing after the S32 demerger )

the other portfolio has a smaller holding , but am willing to average down in that portfolio , as i think the 'mining super cycle is waning

and BHP despite the current management will survive the coming downturn

( am buying BHP as a 'survival stock')

i think Buffet has a quote about great companies that can survive poor management
 
BTW i was buying the stock during the relevant class action period

so will consider if to participate there , or just buy into any resulting weakness
 
Almost without doubt this class action will weigh on BHP share price in the long term and other alternatives are clearly available for exposure in this space and i am certainly re-evaluating my BHP buy recently . But i am a trader of BHP not an investor so have a lot less to concern myself about . The key date is obvisously when it goes before a judge in anger , Potential members of this class action group have until end of May to join , i am clearly no lawyer so asking is it safe to assume that no court proceedings aimed at a judgement would not start until the class action group is finalized ? Is there a date slated when proceedings start ? . Potentially not a lot to research in regards to class action at this stage . I think the safe thing to do is to just avoid BHP for now , a little torn on how to deal with this atm . Selling now would actually be profitable for me as ive only held a week . Give myself a couple days to work it out . Good luck to all holders making a decision on this

Never fall in love with a position and have zero hesitation in the urge to change your mind ....
 
I have never really understood charting, and have to admit that when I have tried to use it as a tool for investing/ trading, its very much a hit and miss affair.
This is not to denigrate those that do use it, its just that i have failed personally.
If one looks at the BHP Page of what we do . we see that it lists 5 main products.
Copper.
Iron Ore
Nickel
Potash
metallurgical Coal
Copper prices are only down by 2% over the past 12 months, but more recently have started to recover, so thats good for BHP.
Iron Ore, down 15% for the year, but 10% of that has been in the past month, with momentum going in the negative. Not good for BHP. Iron Ore goes into steel making, which has fallen 9% in the last 12 months, and 11% in the past month. Also not good for BHP.
Nickel is a dog, Indonesian over supply etc has pushed it to levels that are same as in 2019, and momentum is going further south. Definitely not good for BHP.
Potash prices have dropped from a high of 1200 a ton in April 2022 to 330 today with momentum going in a downward direction.
Metallurgical coal is down 27% for the year, and still falling.
So I have to ask myself, would I invest in BHP based on the above?
Took me a little time, but I have to admit the answer is no.
Mick
 
BHP also produces smaller amounts of useful products like uranium and gold , but yes investing in BHP now , doesn't look so attractive ( at these prices ) . however the main holding was bought before the S32 demerger , and therefore before the WDS spin-off , so that lot are looking OK ( on 'return on investment' basis ) , the smaller holding bought in April 2023 are marginally in the green ( currently ) and will probably be 'averaged down ' in the meaningful dips

BHP being one of the largest cap. stocks listed on the ASX , will get the benefit of 'lazy investors ' buying passive ETFs whether BHP deserves the extra support or not

now another question is BHP being a mining behemoth, is it liable to fail completely ( go to zero ) or at least pausing div. payouts for 2 or 3 consecutive years ?

no guarantees , but probably not ,

so is BHP a bond replacement option ( along with term deposits ) because BHP is unlikely to go multi-bagger now , in the next 10 years
 
mullokintyre said:
I have never really understood charting, and have to admit that when I have tried to use it as a tool for investing/ trading, its very much a hit and miss affair.
This is not to denigrate those that do use it, its just that i have failed personally.
Click to expand...

divs4ever said:
BHP also produces smaller amounts of useful products like uranium and gold , but yes investing in BHP now , doesn't look so attractive ( at these prices )
Click to expand...

@mullokintyre, to aid in understanding market trends, I use a charting method called the ‘Ducati Aqua Bar’ strategy. This chart uses colour-coded bars to indicate optimal times for buying or selling. Specifically, when the price bar is aqua, it suggests an ideal time to buy. Conversely, a red bar indicates a less favourable time for purchasing shares.

Weekly Chart
I’ve attached a weekly price chart of BHP that can be used to trade BHP weekly. As you can see, the colour changes in the bars provide a visual representation of the weekly market trends, which can be a useful tool for making informed trading decisions.

Monthly Chart
I’ve also attached a monthly price chart of BHP suitable for investors to use. As you can see, the colour changes provide a visual representation of monthly market trends, which can be a useful tool for making informed investment decisions.

(a) Weekly Price Chart of BHP
Weekly price charts are suitable for trading (IMHO). @peter2 in his thread speaks about a strategy to trade the ASX20. In light of the current market highs, a nimble trader who exercises caution could precisely time their entry and exit points, which is crucial for successfully trading this style of portfolio. Anticipating and capitalising on a favourable dip as Peter has suggested could serve as another strategic manoeuvre. Remember, patience and precision are key in these volatile markets.




(b) Monthly Price Chart of BHP
Monthly price charts suit investing (IMHO). When investing it's as simple as riding the Aqua Monthly Price Bars. Is the 'Ducati Aqua Bar Strategy' perfect, no, but sometimes "good-enough" is "good-enough".



Skate.
 
Might help some , might hinder others . BHP had some 'oneoff' costs effect EPS this year . This class action also has that potential going forwards and that may be reflected in shareprice at some stage once it actually hits the courts (media ) . I believe this class action is going to make returns slim until a resolution , of course if it all works out for BHP and no liability is found returns will all come back in a rush , this is when i will likely hold BHP for a year or so but untill then i will be in and out as circumstances dictate using my systematic approach . good luck to all .
 
@debtfree

BHP is one of my picks in the ASF Y2024 Competition and a big Australian going well apart from the threat of a court case in London brought by peasants and landowners devastated by the Escondido disaster. Despite my self interest, I generally side with peasants rather than large companies, and do so in this matter. Their case however is tenuous and would only be heard in the English Jurisdiction which acts as a court for hire. Meanwhile the peasants in Brazil sit below the Fundao Dam in Bento Rodrigues and elsewhere unable to reach the original soil which is caked some metres below by tailings and mud.

It will settle or the peasants will be defeated. Either way I win unfortunately for those affected by the negligence of the primary felon in this case those oily mothers, Samarco and Vale. BHP would appear to be unfortunate, this however is not a defence in any court with which I am familiar. I see this as a cap on BHP's price which may not rise past $50 as a consequence in the short to medium term.

Britain may well be rid of the NHS before the judgement is finalised. These matters take decades.

gg
 
so how is Vale going in this matter since it was a 50% partner in that project , and who was the 'operating' partner since it was a JV

the court-case is on shaky ground if only one entity is facing judgment ( assuming Samarco goes into liquidation if the penalties are harsh ) after all Vale is no mining minnow
 
General comment about iron ore (Off Topic)
I've invested in BHP and FMG because iron ore is crucial for our modern world. In essence, iron ore is the backbone of our modern way of life, supporting everything from hi-risers buildings to the vehicles we drive.

Without iron ore, our lives would grind to a halt. Countless industries rely on steel as the fundamental material for their products, and therefore, plays an indispensable role in fostering economic growth and driving technological advancement, the catalyst for progress.

In summary, iron ore's significance in our modern world cannot be overstated. It is the fabric of progress.

Skate.
 
Yep, its basically as important as oil, now if you owned a bunch of really long life, low cost oil wells, the fluctuations in oil price shouldn’t both you as a long term holder.

I believe it’s the same with iron ore mines, you shouldn’t be bothered by the ups and downs, some years the price Is higher some years the price is lower, but as a low cost producer you will continue just earning money.
 
i think you will get that opportunity later in year , My algo suggest that and with IO in the toilet and this class action hitting headlines in a larger sense in H2 it looks probable . Just my opinion and worth what you paid for it .
 
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