Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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Dona Ferentes said:
onward and upward:

The June selldown is becoming just a memory.
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And now Copper is doing its thang, BHP is pushing into the high $48s. Could $50 be far off?
....on an adjusted basis for spinouts and demergers, this would be as high as it's ever been?

Will continue to hold my (pre CGT acquired) shares.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
And now Copper is doing its thang, BHP is pushing into the high $48s. Could $50 be far off?
....on an adjusted basis for spinouts and demergers, this would be as high as it's ever been?

Will continue to hold my (pre CGT acquired) shares.
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“In troubled times always stay with the strength “
Garpal Gumnut

gg
 
Taken a while to break up. Looks good at the moment though. What on? Couldn't just be copper price. Iron gone from 80 to 120 the past 2 months as well I guess.


Screenshot 2023-01-12 at 11.15.20 am.png
 
It's only small beer,
.
Each company will receive up to US$500,000 cash payment from BHP, together with access to a network of internal and external experts to help guide development across technical, business and operational aspects of the company.

The seven companies selected to join the BHP Xplor accelerator program are:
  • Tutume Metals – a private, junior exploration company with secured ground searching for critical minerals in Botswana.
  • Impact Minerals (IPT) – a junior explorer listed on the Australian Stock Exchange with a variety of battery metals projects across Australia.
  • Asian Battery Metals – a junior exploration company focused on finding economic deposits of critical minerals in the Asia Pacific region.
  • Red Ox Copper – a private minerals exploration group in Australia, specialising in generating grassroots, greenfield conceptual plays with potential for tier 1 ore deposits.
  • Bronzite Exploration Corp - an early-stage exploration for copper in northern Canada. Spearheaded by Prof. James Mungall, experienced field and economic geologist at Carleton University, Ottawa.
  • Nordic Nickel (NNL) – a brand new nickel sulphide explorer, listed on the Australia Stock Exchange and focused on two projects in Northern Finland, in the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt.
  • Kingsrose Mining (KRM) – a junior exploration company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange with regional projects in Norway and Finland targeting nickel, copper and platinum group elements


To me the interesting aspect of the choices is the geographical spread, in what they call Tier 1 jurisdictions (Botswana is the most stable African nation). Not much in WA,; maybe our minnows have kicked over most of it?
 
Looking ok for 2023

Labour pain eases amid record BHP haul

BHP says Western Australia’s tight labour market is starting to ease as its Pilbara operations produced a record 146.4 million tonnes in the first half of the financial year.

The company said the average cost of producing a tonne of iron ore was tracking towards the top of its guidance of $US18-$US19 a tonne. And BHP warned it expected coking coal costs to come in above $US90-$US100 a tonne at its Queensland mines, with the company also lifting cost guidance for Mt Arthur.

BHP’s thermal coal costs will lift to between $US84 and $US91 for the full year, well above previous guidance of $US76-$US86 a tonne.

BHP chief executive Mike Henry said the company had now achieved its fourth consecutive year without a fatality at its global operations.

And, as BHP closed on its acquisition of OZ Minerals, the company’s Olympic Dam operations in South Australia appear to finally be delivering on expectations on a consistent basis, with Mr Henry saying its smelter achieved near-record performance in the December quarter, and record gold production. Olympic Dam produced 104,100 tonnes of copper in the first half of the financial year, and 54,400 tonnes in the December quarter.

BHP’s BMA coal mining division in Queensland produced 27.3 million tonnes of coal in the first half, up from 26 million tonnes the previous year.

It also booked an improvement in the December quarter, with production of 7 million tonnes, up from 6.7 million tonnes in the three months to the end of September last year.

But output from Mt Arthur fell 24 per cent compared to the first half of the previous financial year, to 5.5 million tonnes.

That meant the company failed to make the most of the extraordinary thermal coal prices in the first half of the financial year. BHP said its average received price for thermal coal in the period was $US354.30, more than 2.5 times the $US137.68 it was paid on average in the six months to the end of December 2021.

BHP says it expects demand for its commodities to lift through the rest of 2023, as China’s economy moves back towards stronger growth.

“BHP believes China will be a stabilising force when it comes to commodity demand in the 2023 calendar year, with OECD nations experiencing economic headwinds,” Mr Henry said.

“China’s pro-growth policies, including in the property sector, and an easing of Covid-19 restrictions are expected to support progressive improvement from the difficult economic conditions of the first half.”

But strong performances at Olympic Dam and in WA iron ore were undermined by a failure to meet analyst expectations elsewhere at its global operations, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Tyler Broda.

“Realised prices were higher than expected for coking coal and nickel and slightly lower than expected for iron ore, copper and energy coal. Full-year volume guidance remains unchanged and the Escondida copper mine and metallurgical coal are tracking towards the lower end,” he said in a client note.

BHP shares rose 60c, 1.2 per cent, to $49.68 on Thursday.
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Can BHP jump the $50 hurdle and stay there?
Looking back we see this:
1674346692743.png


BHP's transformation into a global mining behemoth kicked off in 2003 when the initial 21st century commodity super-cycle began, and it ran for 8 years. By way of comparison the shaded regression is presently only 7 years, commencing from 2016's bumpy super-cycle start.

What we know for sure is that BHP has continually spun or hived off its divisions that were - in its eyes - non-core. The most recent were its oil and gas assets. In doing so BHP has remained sharply focussed on its future, which it believes is an increasingly electrified world that is committed to net zero CO2 emissions. That said, its iron ore mining profits have been a mainstay, yet stand to be curtailed as China's housing industry shenanigans continue to dampen investor sentiment. On the other hand, China's pandemic closures have ended and a return to improved manufacturing performance is likely (EV production may double again in 2023). So some interesting questions are; can copper price strength pick up the slack if iron ore prices slump? And, will its massive Jansen potash investment reap anticipated rewards from 2027 onwards? Or, what about unlocking Olympic Dam's full potential?

While it's clear commodities are volatile, as shown by BHP occasionally halving in share price in less than 12 months, there are few companies as well placed with tier 1 global assets to ride through periods of weakness and shine when the cycle runs strongly. Furthermore, as BHP has shown with its proposed OZ Minerals buyout, it has the financial strength to add to its asset portfolio in a near predatory manner. (One wonders if IGO is also on their wish list.)

Next is the regular talk about a global recession in 2023. Is it going to happen?
If it is then BHP will fall like most other companies. And then it will do as it has for the past 20 years... rise again.

Until writing this post, I had not realised that at BHP's 2011 price peak our portfolio had a tad over 1000 BHP shares. Today it has 4000. With interest rates at ridiculous lows over recent years it seems we shuffled a fair bit into BHP which has had some grossed up annual returns near 10%. So to answer my first question, given that BHP's current record high share price returns a PE of only 8.64, any global uptick in economic activity in 2023 may well see the $50 hurdle cleared... until the inevitable cyclical headwinds return.
 
part of that answer will come from how successfully the OZL acquisition settles in .

we also will have to worry about the actual state of the global economy

have no current plans to increase or decrease , my current BHP holdings ... but things could change

cheers
 
BHP is such an interesting stock.

It buys and sells divisions and companies, divests from Coke driven London City partners, but over the long haul seems to continue up, and up.

The Great Australian. A true digger.

One can be unlucky and buy at too high a price sometimes but given time it returns to a profitable order. Equally one can have bought at ridiculously low prices under $20, and not that long ago, and been rewarded with a fully franked capital return.

It tends to continue past the "tens" resistance lines given time, as per the attached chart. It certainly looks set to do so shortly, and if Cousins Putin, Xi, Biden and the European Incompetents continue to take their medications it's raw materials should provide a nice profit over the next ten years.

I enclose a 10 year monthly chart.

Oh and do not by any means DYOR ( what does that really mean? ) but sell it to me if it drops to $30 or buy from me at $100, which it could very well do on past behaviour.

BHP.png



gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Equally one can have bought at ridiculously low prices under $20, and not that long ago
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i bought SOME back then but not all of the holding

i stopped buying extra BHP just before the S32 spin-off , i did consider adding prior to the WDS divestment , but they made it so chaotic , i just stayed with the existing positions .

swapping the ( new ) WDS into extra BHP or S32 was considered but not acted on
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
@divs4ever . Divsie I may have to report you to the regulators for agreeing with the suggestion that people do not DYOR ( whatever that means ).

gg
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some did gave me some heat for constantly reminding folks about research

so i try my best to at least warn about potential conflicts of interest

say i have an existing order in the market , on a stock i post about ( unlike many instos . )

i hope EVERYBODY researches before buying or selling ( even a toaster in the shop )

but the careful DO and maybe the others do sometimes

by the way , i bet i don't rank in the top 100,000 market influencers ( unlike many instos )
 
divs4ever said:
some did gave me some heat for constantly reminding folks about research

so i try my best to at least warn about potential conflicts of interest

say i have an existing order in the market , on a stock i post about ( unlike many instos . )

i hope EVERYBODY researches before buying or selling ( even a toaster in the shop )

but the careful DO and maybe the others do sometimes

by the way , i bet i don't rank in the top 100,000 market influencers ( unlike many instos )
Click to expand...

I think DYOR and GLTAH type acronyms at the bottom of posts are not required on this site. It's implied. Although, I have put all of my holdings in my signature by way of some disclosure. Maybe that's not required but I just like people to know when I'm ramping something or just interested.
 
Sean K said:
I have put all of my holdings in my signature by way of some disclosure.
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i used to do that at a different forum , but ( some ) members complained about the 'alphabet soup '

i held about 200 different stocks/notes/ETFs at the time , and sometimes the same stock in multiple portfolios ( and adjust that daily as needed )

however at ASF as mod. i think that is very prudent

cheers
 
divs4ever said:
i used to do that at a different forum , but ( some ) members complained about the 'alphabet soup '

i held about 200 different stocks/notes/ETFs at the time , and sometimes the same stock in multiple portfolios ( and adjust that daily as needed )

however at ASF as mod. i think that is very prudent

cheers
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200!! I've been told that holding more than 10 stocks/instruments is throwing darts but I've explained it away as spreading risk. As an active full time investor I think I have some leeway. But, 200? My Excel spreadsheet would explode.
 
divs4ever said:
some did gave me some heat for constantly reminding folks about research

so i try my best to at least warn about potential conflicts of interest

say i have an existing order in the market , on a stock i post about ( unlike many instos . )

i hope EVERYBODY researches before buying or selling ( even a toaster in the shop )

but the careful DO and maybe the others do sometimes

by the way , i bet i don't rank in the top 100,000 market influencers ( unlike many instos )
Click to expand...
Sean K said:
I think DYOR and GLTAH type acronyms at the bottom of posts are not required on this site. It's implied. Although, I have put all of my holdings in my signature by way of some disclosure. Maybe that's not required but I just like people to know when I'm ramping something or just interested.
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If ASIC spent more time chasing the real crooks and not scaring the bejayzus out of innocent posters the market would be a better place.

I find it difficult to believe that anyone who regularly posts on ASF would come to their attention. ASIC are such dopes that they have allowed $Trillions to escape in to criminal pockets and the perpetrators to leave the country for places such as Cyprus which has no extradition treaty with Australia.

I would welcome ASIC to come after me for not writing something as meaningless as JOHN, DORY, DYOR or some other fishy acronym to avoid being accused of getting people to both buy or sell BHP.

As if some poster is going to move the market in BHP. There are other forums where penny stocks are manipulated but one would have to have the intelligence of a limpet to be taken in by them.

I would make their useless lives a misery.

ASIC are a mob of losers.

atm. btw I would not buy nor sell BHP. And that is my opinion. JOHN DORY.

gg
 
Well, there we go. Thread drift...

For a company founded in the 1880s and finally thrown off the yoke of the pinstripe brigade, they seem to do ok. The usual pile-in occurs, when timing of purchases and asset sales is not perfection personified, but I like the focus on tier one projects in rule-of-law locations.

Will continue to hold .

Fred
 
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