Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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Value Collector said:
Honest question here, but does bhp still own any of the assets we got in the Billiton merger? Didn’t most of them get spun out again when they created south32.
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Maybe someone with a better knowledge of BHP than me has more detail, because I really don't know. It would be an interesting analysis to read.
KH
 
KevinBB said:
I'm just going from memory here, but the dual listing was adopted to appease shareholders, and also national governments, when BHP and Billiton merged many years ago.

Certainly, BHP's board have made some really bad decisions over time, but I don't think the merger with Billiton was one of them.

KH
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I am just happy to off load the holding at 40.85. Didn't think I will see it hitting 40 but thanks to the talk on copper issue, price rise steadily this morning and hit the bull's eye.
 
a trader buddy with much more time in the market says the Billiton assets have been ( mostly ) divested a while back

but to me that doesn't make sense to keep the dual company structure .. before the S32 merger who would have been big enough ( and politically acceptable ) to acquire BHP/Billiton ( sure China could raise the dollars but try to get that past the foreign investment regulators in various nations )

has BHP any trading desks ( for commodities ) maybe stuff like that and port facilities are still Billiton legacies

PS remember Glencore is still hungry , especially for quality iron assets ( so watch out on FMG , RIO and BHP from that angle , i doubt they would buy out BHP's half of the Vale JV , but Glencore makes some brave moves )
 
KevinBB said:
I'm just going from memory here, but the dual listing was adopted to appease shareholders, and also national governments, when BHP and Billiton merged many years ago.

Certainly, BHP's board have made some really bad decisions over time, but I don't think the merger with Billiton was one of them.

KH
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The merger was one of their mistakes as far as I am concerned.
The dual listing came about because of that mistake.
Mick
 
My Personal Observations on BHP’s current TA for anyone that’s interested.

BHP is at a Crossroads situation ATM.

For the last 8 days BHP has been stuck within the current 3/12/21 Gap Up Area (Pages 203 to 212) – and to add to the confusion poor ole’ BHP is in, there are several Indicator Sell Divergences (page 108 & 109), and for 4 of the past 6 days, BHPs Candlesticks suggest that Sellers are in control (page 5) – then to add to that confusion BHP’s ST Trend is UP, BUT their 4 mth Trend is still DOWN.

Also the BHP SP is still having trouble breaking above the Top Linear Regression Line.

There are a few other TA signals, like recent Candle Formations & Candle Construction that are, ‘of concern’ – Another worry is when Green Candle Days like 10/12/21, cause ST Indicators to DROP.

The only real +ive I an see ATM is the reasonably ‘ST solid base’ around the $35.80 line

IMO, ATM there are not enough TA signals that suggest a future ST or LT trend – so my advice to BHP Punters is “ BE CAREFUL”.

IMO any further drop in the SP could lead to to abt $35.80.

IMO, on the other hand any rise in the SP will strike trouble @ the next Gap Down Area $42.17 to $44.78.

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Remenber to DYOR.
Cheers.
DrB
 
so with BHP set to disperse WPL shares on a one for one basis , do you have any current estimation of the WPL current and also enlarged valuations

if WPL is currently trading above $20 and the deal is allegedly doubling the assets of WPL so lets call the underlying value of WPL circa $30 ( because you can bet there will be some problems harvesting the synergies early , and some fund managers will want to sell the WPL 'bonus shares ' )

what is the leaner BHP worth as well surely more than $10 a share ( but let's make a wild guess and say BHP will have some support at $20 )

looks like a traders should be preparing for some activity ( on BHP and WPL )
 
DrBourse said:
My Personal Observations on BHP’s current TA for anyone that’s interested.

BHP is at a Crossroads situation ATM.

For the last 8 days BHP has been stuck within the current 3/12/21 Gap Up Area (Pages 203 to 212) – and to add to the confusion poor ole’ BHP is in, there are several Indicator Sell Divergences (page 108 & 109), and for 4 of the past 6 days, BHPs Candlesticks suggest that Sellers are in control (page 5) – then to add to that confusion BHP’s ST Trend is UP, BUT their 4 mth Trend is still DOWN.

Also the BHP SP is still having trouble breaking above the Top Linear Regression Line.

There are a few other TA signals, like recent Candle Formations & Candle Construction that are, ‘of concern’ – Another worry is when Green Candle Days like 10/12/21, cause ST Indicators to DROP.

The only real +ive I an see ATM is the reasonably ‘ST solid base’ around the $35.80 line

IMO, ATM there are not enough TA signals that suggest a future ST or LT trend – so my advice to BHP Punters is “ BE CAREFUL”.

IMO any further drop in the SP could lead to to abt $35.80.

IMO, on the other hand any rise in the SP will strike trouble @ the next Gap Down Area $42.17 to $44.78.

View attachment 134137

Remenber to DYOR.
Cheers.
DrB
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As a follow-up to my last BHP Post, I feel I should mention, for the Beginners Benefit, that I purpously did not mention the BHP/WPL Merger.

Experienced TA types understand that Recent Events, Current Events, Announcements, etc are always reflected in Daily Chart Movements.
Punters tell us what they feel each Stocks Price should be when they Buy & Sell, Bad News usually results in a Red Candle, Good News usually results in a Green Candle, then you need to read each daily candle (pages3, 4 & 5)

Line Charts will give a Basic indication of what punters think,
The various forms of Bar Charts give a slightly better indication of what punters think,
and a Candlestick Chart gives the Best indication of what punters think.

The BHP Chart from 16th AUG 21 to Mid Oct 21, shows complete uncertainty, which the Shorts probably took advantage of - But from Mid to Late NOV 21 onwards the Sheep have begun to see the light.

I know the sceptics out there will challenge any TA Theory - I've given up trying to educate them.

The smarter punters, and hopefully all Beginners will at least investigate all aspects of FA & TA, one in no better than the other, but the 2 together can work wonders for your trading prowess.

Remember to DYOR.

If anyone wants a .pdf copy of the page numbers I often mention, you should Direct Message me.
However most pages are shown in the 3 x "DrBourse Help Forums" in the Beginners Lounge, it just might take some time to locate the page number that you are looking for.

Cheers.
DrB.
 
dyna said:
All the more remarkable, in that BHP is sitting at no. 7 in the top ten most shorted stocks on the ASX, with 8.7% of its stock out on loan.
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This is elephant stuff.

It could go either way.

BHP Oz holders will vote for amalgamation. Some are tipping a share price fall when that happens later this month.

Shorts are full in, as are funds out to punish them.

The Indices will change as well with enlarged BHP.

I've decided to sit it out lest I be run over by an elephant.

I didn't buy BHP at $36 as I was loaded up with RIO and saw FMG as a better prospect.

Charts may give some indication as to what to do. I'm not in.

gg
 
The increased weighting of BHP from 6.2% to about 10% within ASX indices would compel many Australian investors to find spare cash to buy BHP shares to comply with their index-linked mandates. Index manager S&P Global told investors in December that “material” volatility in trading volumes would occur if the market were forced to absorb BHP’s unification in a single day.

S&P floated an idea with investors in recent weeks to stagger the impact of BHP’s unification over two trading sessions: 31 January and 21 March. But on Wednesday S&P said it had decided to implement the changes “all at once” before the 31 January trading session, if BHP shareholders approve unification on 20 January.

The vote, with 75% needed to succeed, will be interesting as some fund managers aim to vote against unification of BHP out of concern the arrangement would amount to a “substantial, permanent and unnecessary” transfer of value from holders of BHP’s Australian stock to those holding the miner’s London stock.

Short positions in Australian BHP stock have risen to 8.5 per cent of the register on January 4, from 3.7 per cent in August.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
The increased weighting of BHP from 6.2% to about 10% within ASX indices would compel many Australian investors to find spare cash to buy BHP shares to comply with their index-linked mandates. Index manager S&P Global told investors in December that “material” volatility in trading volumes would occur if the market were forced to absorb BHP’s unification in a single day.

S&P floated an idea with investors in recent weeks to stagger the impact of BHP’s unification over two trading sessions: 31 January and 21 March. But on Wednesday S&P said it had decided to implement the changes “all at once” before the 31 January trading session, if BHP shareholders approve unification on 20 January.

The vote, with 75% needed to succeed, will be interesting as some fund managers aim to vote against unification of BHP out of concern the arrangement would amount to a “substantial, permanent and unnecessary” transfer of value from holders of BHP’s Australian stock to those holding the miner’s London stock.

Short positions in Australian BHP stock have risen to 8.5 per cent of the register on January 4, from 3.7 per cent in August.
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Just out of curiosity..so what would be a good entry share price? ?
 
Dona Ferentes said:
The increased weighting of BHP from 6.2% to about 10% within ASX indices would compel many Australian investors to find spare cash to buy BHP shares to comply with their index-linked mandates. Index manager S&P Global told investors in December that “material” volatility in trading volumes would occur if the market were forced to absorb BHP’s unification in a single day.

S&P floated an idea with investors in recent weeks to stagger the impact of BHP’s unification over two trading sessions: 31 January and 21 March. But on Wednesday S&P said it had decided to implement the changes “all at once” before the 31 January trading session, if BHP shareholders approve unification on 20 January.

The vote, with 75% needed to succeed, will be interesting as some fund managers aim to vote against unification of BHP out of concern the arrangement would amount to a “substantial, permanent and unnecessary” transfer of value from holders of BHP’s Australian stock to those holding the miner’s London stock.

Short positions in Australian BHP stock have risen to 8.5 per cent of the register on January 4, from 3.7 per cent in August.
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The large funds I am told will vote for a single register.

Game over imo with a retracement in price.

gg
 
Dona Ferentes said:
The increased weighting of BHP from 6.2% to about 10% within ASX indices would compel many Australian investors to find spare cash to buy BHP shares to comply with their index-linked mandates. Index manager S&P Global told investors in December that “material” volatility in trading volumes would occur if the market were forced to absorb BHP’s unification in a single day.

S&P floated an idea with investors in recent weeks to stagger the impact of BHP’s unification over two trading sessions: 31 January and 21 March. But on Wednesday S&P said it had decided to implement the changes “all at once” before the 31 January trading session, if BHP shareholders approve unification on 20 January.

The vote, with 75% needed to succeed, will be interesting as some fund managers aim to vote against unification of BHP out of concern the arrangement would amount to a “substantial, permanent and unnecessary” transfer of value from holders of BHP’s Australian stock to those holding the miner’s London stock.

Short positions in Australian BHP stock have risen to 8.5 per cent of the register on January 4, from 3.7 per cent in August.
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but after divesting the WPL shares ???

i am guessing WPL will stay above $15 all through this

HOWEVER SOME funds will be obliged to avoid on exit WPL positions while others will be obliged to buy extra ( larger market cap. )

am still indecisive on which way to vote here ( i hold both BHP and WPL ) although since i hold less than 1000 shares in either , i will need a lot of companions if i vote to stop this restructure

BTW i do NOT see the restructured BHP coming down to a tempting top up price ( for me )
 
Sean K said:
I thought $44 was going to be a spot where BHP was going to consolidate a little, but looks like it's just running... Been an outstanding run.

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Thanks @Sean K . I keep on seeing your chart when I browse this thread and the recovery in price seems unbelievable from $40 up. Like you I am surprised there was no consolidation.

BHP may have problems closing that gap from August 21 up to and beyond $47.66.

Then what do I know lol. The madness of crowds, if it sounds too good to be true etc. etc.

gg
 
BHP shareholders will next week vote on a plan for the Australian side of BHP’s dual-listed company structure to acquire the British side through a one-for-one issue of shares in BHP’s Australian-listed company.

UniSuper and K2 Asset Management have indicated they plan to vote in favour of unification. AFI will likely also vote in favour, as will WAM.

Major proxy advisers such as ISS Governance and CGI Glass Lewis have encouraged clients to vote in favour of unification.

Fund managers including Pendal Group and Ausbil this week vowed to vote against unification on the grounds the one-for-one mechanism undervalued the premium that BHP’s Australian shares have traditionally enjoyed over BHP’s London shares, meaning the cost of the $US450 million process outweighed the benefits.

The vote is the first of two big transactions for BHP in 2022, with the company also hoping to demerge its petroleum division to Woodside. BHP has said the Woodside demerger can still go ahead if unification fails, but it will be structurally easier to execute if the company is unified first.
 
Ahead of this Thursday’s BHP unification meetings, major US-owned fund manager Vanguard Australia has revealed how it will rebalance the BHP holdings in its Shares Index, High Yield and Large Companies ETFs, warning that for a brief period of time holders in the three funds will be exposed to currency and market risks they are not normally exposed to.

Vanguard says to prepare for the proposed unification, “[F]rom 17 January 2022 Vanguard Investments Australia will be able to acquire BHP Plc shares on the London Stock Exchange to support the investment strategies of the above-named Funds.”

“Under the BHP proposal, any shares in BHP Plc that VIA acquires will be exchanged for depository interests in BHP Limited, listed on the London Stock exchange.
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“If approved, the unification is scheduled to be complete on 31 January 2022 at which time Vanguard Investment Australia will commence the process to transition the depository interests into ASX listed BHP Limited shares,” the fund manager said on Monday.
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Vanguard Investments Australia said it will also be able to use US E-mini Index Futures in the period leading up to, and on the date of BHP’s unification, “to maintain fund liquidity, manage market exposure and cash flows, while supporting broader funding requirements.”

This means Vanguard will see the Australian funds briefly directly exposed to the US and UK markets.
“Acquisition of BHP Plc and US E-minis will result in direct exposure to the US and UK markets, which will introduce a small amount of currency risk. Currency risk is the chance that the value of a foreign investment, measured in Australian dollars, will decrease because of unfavourable changes in currency exchange rates.”
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Vanguard says that these are “short-term changes (that) are consistent with the investment strategy and investment return objectives of the funds.”
“[G]iven the significance of the anticipated impact of the proposed unification on the Australian equities market, (the changes) are being made in the best interest of investors.”
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Vanguard warned investors in the Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF tracks the FTSE Australia High Dividend Yield Index that ” This index applies a 10% maximum weighting to any one company when the index is rebalanced semi-annually.”

“To maintain these diversification requirements, a 10% cap will be applied to BHP based on the closing price on 21 January 2022. On the effective date, Vanguard fund weightings in BHP may be over 10% due to market movements.”
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Vanguard’s method of topping up its BHP holdings and the maximum weighting measure for a single stock will be familiar to holders of other funds. These updates will be common for many funds – both listed and unlisted and especially those based on index hugging strategies that hug the ASX 200 or major sub-indexes (such as materials).
 
Las night I put set up several low bids thinking that their would be a drop. Caught nothing, my bids were too low, though I did have one at $45 but pulled it this morning. Ow well.

Anyone else think that the SP will drop below $45 before climbing next month?

BHP is one of the biggest dividend payers in the world – and just now it has about twice as many franked dividends on its balance sheet as a typical blue chip company would retain. In fact, there is about $US16bn ($22bn) worth of franked dividends sitting on the balance sheet looking for a home.

Very soon the big miner is going to get a chance to shower its Australian shareholders with these dividends as it reports in February and happens to be enjoying an exceptionally profitable phase of the commodities cycle.

At BHP the unification, which may cost up to $450m, has some temporary issues, but longer term it allows the miner to be leaner and more flexible. But it also smooths its transition out of coal and gas and into greener future-facing metals such as copper or potash. For investors who want to be part of that future, the merger makes sense. For those who want big dividend cheques in the months ahead, it is an opportunity worth consideration.

JAMES KIRBY WEALTH EDITOR
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