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Copper is really hitting the skids now, plunging the most in almost six years to below $US5400 a tonne as a cut in the World Bank’s global growth forecast further fuelled speculation demand for raw materials won’t be enough to eliminate a supply glut.
I don't hold but by crikey I'm looking at this decline and at some point BHP is going to be a buying opportunity. The big question is, when will be that point? Waiting patiently...
Quote:
BHP Billiton has a progressive dividend policy. The aim of this policy is to steadily increase, or at least maintain our base dividend in US dollars terms at each half yearly payment. http://www.bhpbilliton.com/home/inve...Dividends.aspx
This is my post yesterday on Somersoft:
Today I purchased a small parcel of BHP @ $27.30.
My reasoning:
Most recent dividend was USD$0.62c. If we keep that base for 2015 (Interim and Final) and the AUD stays around the 80c mark, gives us a forward dividend of $1.55ish.
($1.55/$27.30) x 100 = 5.67% FF.
Investors havent enjoyed a dividend yield like this in 15yrs.
I could be right, I could be completely wrong - but for now, thats my uneducated insight.
pinkboy
Because they're spending less money on expansion?Why would they keep paying the same dividend when their return on iron ore is dropping because of decreasing prices?
Why would they keep paying the same dividend when their return on iron ore is dropping because of decreasing prices?
Because that's their policy - I linked it for you. They have cash reserves to get them through the lean times.
What do you think will happen to SP if they decreased their dividend? There would be blood on the streets - that's what. And I bet my last BHP share that wont happen.
pinkboy
The dividend policy is just an intent, based on current conditions and forecasts as perceived by the Board. The Board can change that policy without consulting any shareholders... so not something I'd bank on.
And speaking of blood on the street for BHP share price... it's been bleeding pretty bad for 5 months.
x2
Iron ore prices have crashed and may or may not continue declining. All depends on China IMO. Regardless, have a look at the chart for BHP - the price could crash through the GFC support. From then on it's anyone's guess where it will stop.
Do you really think BHP will keep paying the same dividends in that state?
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I have $15K invested in BHP at various different prices. Should I sink more money into BHP in the hope of it going up, or should I hold?
These are my extremely rough estimates of what commodity price (long term) it would take to get a 'fair value' at the support levels:
$28 = Oil and Iron Ore both @ $80
$24 = Oil and Iron ore both @ $70
With so many variables it's hard to say, but that's what I'm working with at the moment.
But I'd also say any decline to $24 won't be based on commodity drop alone. It would need another accompanying factor whether it be general market weakness, capital / dividend issues, substantial write downs, China panic etc...
On the upside for BHP to hold above $28, it would need Oil and Iron Ore to bottom out at no more than another -10%. Again just my personal estimates.
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