BGL - Belleview Gold

[frugal.rock]

Yeah I'm glad I've been patient and held on to BGL, and didn't act on my previous mini-panic

Gold indicie XGD is showing a bullish surge, Friday was over 5% today 2%
It looks like it's trying to breakout.
BGL and most Goldie's are showing the same traits, obviously some better than others.
To my amateur eye, BGL is set to benefit from TA angle.

Reiterated, and timing will be key, and may or may not be worth it based off pos size & brokerage.

It may provide an exit and re-entry trade, if one is still happy with FA.

The current surge could well indicate a potential pending announcement, however am not following this on FA to know if anything could be expected.

(Am considering I have missed the boat for now. If a position is available and a pullback does play out, I'm in)
Cheers.
(Can't post charts ATM, phone memory full...have cleared it but hasn't registered, restart hopefully will fix?)

 

[tinhat]

Gold indicie XGD is showing a bullish surge, Friday was over 5% today 2%
It looks like it's trying to breakout.
BGL and most Goldie's are showing the same traits, obviously some better than others.
To my amateur eye, BGL is set to benefit from TA angle.

Reiterated, and timing will be key, and may or may not be worth it based off pos size & brokerage.


The current surge could well indicate a potential pending announcement, however am not following this on FA to know if anything could be expected.

(Am considering I have missed the boat for now. If a position is available and a pullback does play out, I'm in)
Cheers.
(Can't post charts ATM, phone memory full...have cleared it but hasn't registered, restart hopefully will fix?)

My observation on Gold (not BGL specific, although it has been on my watchlist - you can only invest in so many companies...) is that the recent pullback was going to exhaust itself for the next leg up on the overall bull run. Printing press goes brrr.

 

[Linus van Pelt]

My observation on Gold (not BGL specific, although it has been on my watchlist - you can only invest in so many companies...) is that the recent pullback was going to exhaust itself for the next leg up on the overall bull run. Printing press goes brrr.

I haven't been following the gold index itself - perhaps I should? I'm just following BGL because I'm still in it.

Could you have predicted such a strong breakout from the recent pullback? My view was it was moving sideways, with several mini pullbacks, and only a slight upward trend. I couldn't have predicted the strong breakout that's occurred. I'm just glad it's happening.

Are the other gold stocks having a similar run (assuming you've looked). Yeah, I'm being lazy - I could Do My Own Research ;-) I could be tempted to look at other gold stocks, but I think the smart thing would be adding more diversity to my portfolio.

I didn't get the "Printing press goes brrr" comment...

 

[wabullfrog]

@Linus van Pelt "Printing press goes brrr" is in reference to quantitative easing I believe

@frugal.rock today an entry point?

 

[frugal.rock]

today an entry point?

I would like to see it bounce off $1.20 (support) and start heading north again, entering around 1.25

The rotation of gold, oil and financials has come to foray today.
(NAB up 7.5%) XGD down 8.3% which is the biggest one day fall I personally have seen (not a big watcher on intraday movement with gold though )
The rabbits are out of the Warren (gold) and grazing again.
This rotation, apart from financials, also has oilers, energy and travel up.
POG over the next few weeks will tell a story, my breakout theory (short term) could well be a breakdown.
Now a gold fence sitter, waiting for clear directions.
Had considered this rotation scenario over the weekend, but expected it to be weeks/months away...perhaps not?

 

[Miner]

I would like to see it bounce off $1.20 (support) and start heading north again, entering around 1.25

The rotation of gold, oil and financials has come to foray today.
(NAB up 7.5%) XGD down 8.3% which is the biggest one day fall I personally have seen (not a big watcher on intraday movement with gold though )
The rabbits are out of the Warren (gold) and grazing again.
This rotation, apart from financials, also has oilers, energy and travel up.
POG over the next few weeks will tell a story, my breakout theory (short term) could well be a breakdown.
Now a gold fence sitter, waiting for clear directions.
Had considered this rotation scenario over the weekend, but expected it to be weeks/months away...perhaps not?

Last Price (AUD)$1.320
Today's ChangeDown$0.170 (11.41%)
Could target price of $1.2 be a ambitious as gold has gone through correction but will be returning to normal level soon. So would be BGL. Today however all gold stocks have crashed with rise of oil shares.

 

[tinhat]

I would like to see it bounce off $1.20 (support) and start heading north again, entering around 1.25

The rotation of gold, oil and financials has come to foray today.
(NAB up 7.5%) XGD down 8.3% which is the biggest one day fall I personally have seen (not a big watcher on intraday movement with gold though )
The rabbits are out of the Warren (gold) and grazing again.
This rotation, apart from financials, also has oilers, energy and travel up.
POG over the next few weeks will tell a story, my breakout theory (short term) could well be a breakdown.
Now a gold fence sitter, waiting for clear directions.
Had considered this rotation scenario over the weekend, but expected it to be weeks/months away...perhaps not?

With regard to gold, my sentiment isn't towards a rotation yet. The chat looks poised for a breakdown in price but I'm smelling continuation.

I was at dinner with a few people last night and no-one understood the electoral collage system of selecting president under the USA constitution. Just like few people understand how, constitutionally, a government is formed in Australia. I love how in the Australian media they talk about the government back-bench. No such thing. The only bench of government in the parliament is the front bench.

Rupd Murdoch. For the sake of democracy. Off with that American's head.

[edit]. Research what happens in the USA constitutionally if the electoral college fails to elect a President by XX Jan. Hint, Donald Trump has already stated a month or so ago that this is his aim. For the electoral college not to be legally able to select a president.

 

[Miner]

With regard to gold, my sentiment isn't towards a rotation yet. The chat looks poised for a breakdown in price but I'm smelling continuation.

I was at dinner with a few people last night and no-one understood the electoral collage system of selecting president under the USA constitution. Just like few people understand how, constitutionally, a government is formed in Australia. I love how in the Australian media they talk about the government back-bench. No such thing. The only bench of government in the parliament is the front bench.

Rupd Murdoch. For the sake of democracy. Off with that American's head.

Great Tinhat
We in Australia are never politically savvy. That's how same person votes two different parties for State and Parliament. We love weather and sports .
But how that's related to BGL ?
Regards

 

[tinhat]

Great Tinhat
We in Australia are never politically savvy. That's how same person votes two different parties for State and Parliament. We love weather and sports .
But how that's related to BGL ?
Regards

I don't own BGL. It's on my short list. I only put buy/sell orders into market a couple of times a week. It's obviously doing very well and currently out-performing. Congratulations to all holders. There is a lot of discussion above about the price of gold, naturally. I'm bullish gold. I've quickly outlined some of my reasons in recent posts. I'm interested in owning BGL. Good luck to all.

 

[frugal.rock]

With regard to gold, my sentiment isn't towards a rotation yet. The chat looks poised for a breakdown in price but I'm smelling continuation.

Thanks Tinhat.
I will take yours and P2 bullish stance onboard, considering your long teeth and all.

 

[tinhat]

Thanks Tinhat.
I will take yours and P2 bullish stance onboard, considering your long teeth and all.

Your observations and opinions are just as [in]valid as mine, so I repay the compliment.

 

[tinhat]

@Linus van Pelt "Printing press goes brrr" is in reference to quantitative easing I believe

@frugal.rock today an entry point?

wabullfrog, I think we are now seeing the prediction that many monetary policy commentators made some time ago, that; monetary policy is now basically being used as a currency debasing tool as the last weapon in the arsonary. This I why I subscribe to the gold bull happy clappy.

This is stuff that was never contemplated when I minored in economics some almost forty years ago.

PS: If you really want to know where global inflation is headed, then look at the global population growth rate. Everything you need to know is in demographics, except the really important stuff which is in nature and can only learnt by being in nature.

 

[frugal.rock]

@frugal.rock today an entry point?

G'day wabullfrog, see below.

I would like to see it bounce off $1.20 (support) and start heading north again, entering around 1.25

All charts shown below are 3 months.

As you can see, BGL is highly correlated to its sector indicie.

Spot gold. Investing.com chart.

If I'm not mistaken, BGL is held in @Skate s current Daily Panda system having been purchased on 10th NOV and still held, so more than likely a safe bet.

 

[frugal.rock]

@wabullfrog
It should be noted that the POG has now well breached $1800.
Crypto has recovered half its very recent pullback whilst gold has continued its immediate falling trend.
My previous assessment of a buy condition has now failed for the time being as it was conditional (unstated) on immediated gold bull trend.
If I was holding BGL and in profit, I would probably consider selling based off bearish trends continuing early this week and if bullish crypto continues.
(Money leaving gold and going into crypto)
A note that crypto will dump much faster than gold...

 

[frugal.rock]

Despite the XGD and POG, BlackRock and Van Eck have increased their substantial holdings as announced yesterday and today, respectively. A positive sign?

There's very mixed opinions amongst pundits about the pog future next year.
Am personally sitting in the bears pit in the imbecile carriage.

 

[The Triangle]

BGL justifiably smashed by 20% today. Feasibility study released showing the post tax NPV (at 5% - Who uses 5%?)

$0.6 Billion NPV
$0.8 Billion Market Cap (as of yesterday)

Gold price = 2300,
Recovery = 97%
PPCapex = $255M
Payback = 1.7y
IRR = 35%

It's surprising they released this version of the feasibility to the market. I presume they were under enormous pressure to get something out there and this is the best they could come up with and bet we'll see the customary 'Revised, Optimised' update in a few months where management and executives take out all the things they can to make it look better.

Grades look good - lots of upside (well, maybe not at that gold price) - obviously the mine/project is going to be valuable and profit making and I think their initial 7-9 year life will probably extend many many more years. I think the only way of extracting more value out of this mine would be to increase the production rates - but that does not look possible given the size and dimensions. Unfortunately BGL holds a hefty valuation, and I don't believe they own any other assets to give the company justification for a value 30% more than the NPV of their only project.

For comparison, CAI has a market cap of $150 million, and a NPV(8) of $220 million at a 2300 gold price for their mine. They have a higher AISC and thus higher risk, but payback and IRR are better. They also have other prospects.

 

[Miner]

BGL justifiably smashed by 20% today. Feasibility study released showing the post tax NPV (at 5% - Who uses 5%?)

$0.6 Billion NPV
$0.8 Billion Market Cap (as of yesterday)

Gold price = 2300,
Recovery = 97%
PPCapex = $255M
Payback = 1.7y
IRR = 35%

It's surprising they released this version of the feasibility to the market. I presume they were under enormous pressure to get something out there and this is the best they could come up with and bet we'll see the customary 'Revised, Optimised' update in a few months where management and executives take out all the things they can to make it look better.

Grades look good - lots of upside (well, maybe not at that gold price) - obviously the mine/project is going to be valuable and profit making and I think their initial 7-9 year life will probably extend many many more years. I think the only way of extracting more value out of this mine would be to increase the production rates - but that does not look possible given the size and dimensions. Unfortunately BGL holds a hefty valuation, and I don't believe they own any other assets to give the company justification for a value 30% more than the NPV of their only project.

For comparison, CAI has a market cap of $150 million, and a NPV(8) of $220 million at a 2300 gold price for their mine. They have a higher AISC and thus higher risk, but payback and IRR are better. They also have other prospects.

Hi @The Triangle
Good update. I was tied to dive down today after seeing the flogging but your note helped to get the summary.
Thankfully and regretfully i have quitted some weeks back.
But for holders and rampers like Port Publishing it is a bad news.
Hypothetically who bought cob today to find to morrow that there was a serious typo and the price will catapult then.
If banks can make error of $550 m cheque, BGL is only a small company

My dream.
Not holding.

 

[finicky]

I've been very wary of this company, looks to me management over reward themselves, to put it mildly. That's turned out to be a useful red flag for me before. Take a second look at BGL's ribbon of unlisted options/performance shares in Appendix 2a announcements. Just had a look at Auteco Minerals (AUT) very big non-exec director interest there for such short tenure, Blackstone Minerals (BSX), options exercised at .001 at exit for around 50c shares. Cost to shareholders' equity. High grade isnt everything, shape and depth of orebody for u/g mine can trump high grade as I discovered from Doray Minerals which virtually went broke until salvaged by Leigh Junk (sic). Another example of why you don't want a geologist heading a company that is developing a mine. And the company still isn't cheap by traditional metrics - compare BGL's price/book value of other gold companies (I just did: DCN, RRL, NST) and very high rate of share inflation over the decade - in addition to the unlisted stuff. Good luck, deeply unattracted.

 

[Miner]

I've been very wary of this company, looks to me management over reward themselves, to put it mildly. That's turned out to be a useful red flag for me before. Take a second look at BGL's ribbon of unlisted options/performance shares in Appendix 2a announcements. Just had a look at Auteco Minerals (AUT) very big non-exec director interest there for such short tenure, Blackstone Minerals (BSX), options exercised at .001 at exit for around 50c shares. Cost to shareholders' equity. High grade isnt everything, shape and depth of orebody for u/g mine can trump high grade as I discovered from Doray Minerals which virtually went broke until salvaged by Leigh Junk (sic). Another example of why you don't want a geologist heading a company that is developing a mine. And the company still isn't cheap by traditional metrics - compare BGL's price/book value of other gold companies (I just did: DCN, RRL, NST) and very high rate of share inflation over the decade - in addition to the unlisted stuff. Good luck, deeply unattracted.

@finicky - good points.
On the comparison did you notice the grades BGL reported and funny enough the recovery 97 percent - a dream to have even 93 pc recovery for many gold plants.
Is RRL doing at all good ?
So there could be some dodgy bullets though I would be watching from speculative interest. I am following the intent of @peter2 's recommended strategy to draw a line between booking profits, making a small parcel for speculations and keep the major investment not to gamble.

 

[finicky]

@Miner , RRL's operating cost is up but still making profits and paying a now excellent dividend yield (at today's price) Can't know yet whether the switch to u/g for some of Rosemont and other mines will work out - but great management, high ROE historically, modest share issuance inflation, cashed up, consistent dividends - chalk and cneese I would say but market is unappreciative for sure, I paid more than this for shares back 5 years ago. Also, with RRL, can't be confident yet as to how their McPhillamys development project in NSW will go.