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BFE - Black Fire Minerals

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Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

I Agree. It looks to be holding tight with 'The King' and Steinpris holding a lot, never heard of this EQT mob nor the other group.... will have to look into them.

Certainly makes me think I haven't looked into Blackfire deep enough.
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

hey guys i was wondering if any of you know how to find out what percentage of shares are held by the top 20 share holders
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Company's sometimes have their Top 20 on the web and keep them updated, I only had a quick glance but could find nothing

Company's nearly always publish a Top 20 in their annual report, the Top 20 as at June 30th 2007 was 45%

Howevewr I think that this is very unrealiable for a number of reasons, firstly its over 12 months old, secondly BFE is no longer a spec oiler with minority interests in high impact oil wells but is now a serious Iron Ore player with a decent looking project,

This is a company changing event and is evidenced by the fact that Steinpris driectors, along with EQT and Adam Liernet have been buying shares to become or increase their "Substantial Holder" positions

http://www.blackfireenergy.com.au/Docs/BFE.Press.280508.pdf


If I had to guess I'd say somewhere between 60%-80% is held by the Top 20
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

I think for me this goes in the watch list because at this stage the market hasnt woken up yet abt it, and the volumes are low, so rather than get sucked in like DMM, I may wait for a while until volume is better.
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Ans,

What exactly do you mean by "sucked into DMM" ??? DMM's chart is no different to that of SDL, ROY, JMS, AGO or GBG (or really all other resource stocks at the mid to micro end)

SDL for example rose from 25c to 50c and has since retreated to 23c on the back of this savage mkt, ROY rose from sub 20c to 40c and is now back at 20c, JMS rose from sub 20c to sub 40c and is now back at 20c, AGO rose from $2 to over $4 and is now back below $3 closer to $2.50 from memory, GBG rose from 70c to $1.80 and is now back at 80c-90c, what I'm saying is that most if not all Iron Ore stocks (if not all resource stocks) have given back all of their recent gains, so DMM is no different

DMM is one of my favourite Iron ore exposures and I firmly believe in time it will be a $1.50 - $3 stock, only time will tell if I'm right, its just a shame that we the entire mkt were sucked in by SUBPRIME/CREDIT Crisis


Back to BFE, I have been watching it for a few weeks and the catalyst for me to become BULLISH with a capital B was seeing Stienpris buy $50k worth of shares at 18c along with Adam Liernet who was buying up to 20c but avg I think was 18c, these guys are much more informed than the average punter and if they are buyers at current levels then so am I, it also explains why the stock has consistantly held support at 18c

I am not a mkt guru, I can't say when mkts will bottom (though for me I think we have hit it or at worst are very close) I like to buy in the Gloom which is where we are

For me this is dirt cheap Iron ore company with a tiny undemanding mkt cap, just the kind I like, I think whats sanity returns to the mkts these sub $10m EV companies will be re-rated, also if you look deep into BFE there's a lot more depth to it than you'd expect from such a tiny cap

Cheers
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

ans25 said:
I think for me this goes in the watch list because at this stage the market hasnt woken up yet abt it, and the volumes are low, so rather than get sucked in like DMM, I may wait for a while until volume is better.
Click to expand...

Hi Ans - be careful you don't label some potentially great stocks as dogs at the moment. Given the incredible purple patch equities have had - and in particular resources, I've had to check myself a few times on labelling a stock as a dud as it wasn't performing to what I expected. My expectations have been formed during what has been an unbelievable period - need to re-adjust for a new environment. It is savage on the ASX at the moment - i think we've lost about 8% over the same period the dow has dropped 1%....

I suppose this is advice for anyone who is feeling a little beaten up at the moment - re-adjust your expectations and be patient, if you believe in your research and are happy with your risk levels then this really is a waiting game at the moment.

Anyway, as for BFE - sounds like an interesting story, the main risk - as I see it - is being in bed with the King - while it would be a story to tell the girlfriends about, I understand he was a particuarly selfish lover......

Having worked in 'corrupt cultures' the Kings (Sovereign ruler type) interests will only ever be aligned with him - not us, BFE or even Elvis. I think one to trade as it progresses, not neccesarily to hold for ore production (does anyone do that anymore?) Don't know if it will run up on spudding Lake Macleod or not, depends on what the market sees as their focus - a discovery though should heat things up a bit!!
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

I dont know guys, this is Africa after all.

I think at times like these its better to watch than jump in, never catch a falling knife.

Sure it has potential, but I could argue a lot of IO stocks have potential, you just have to calculate the risks involved as well as market sentiment, AND the fact this has v low volume depicts the current market sentiment, be it that we are going through a tough time.

For me its all about volume otherwise than its just too volatile and subject to manipulation too frequently.

I'm not saying BFE wont increase (it has to there's only one way up) but at the moment I think there are other better bargains out there.

Happy Buying!
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Hey Datsun,

Totally agree, alot of people need to understand just how hard our mkts have been hit of late, most if not all micro to mid resource stocks are off 50%, even the mighty BHP is down at $36

So having said that I found it very re-assuring to see BFE hold 18c for a few weeks now during these very very difficult times




Datsun Disguise said:
Having worked in 'corrupt cultures' the Kings (Sovereign ruler type) interests will only ever be aligned with him - not us, BFE or even Elvis.
Click to expand...

lol I love how we're calling him Elvis, I wonder what he'd think if he read it, lol

On a serious note though, the King hasn't made any money from this deal yet and can't as he is only being given shares which are escrowed for 12months,

The only was the king can make any money from this deal is by selling his shares in 12 months time

Now through all the payments etc etc, the king stands to own between 60%-70% of the company, making him by far the biggest share holder,

Now if you were this king and you were going to end up owning 60%-70% of BFE and you had just vended a project into the company wouldn't you do everything in your power to make the company the next FMG or PDN?

Now I'm not saying under any circumstances that this is the next FMG or PDN, not by a long shot, I'm just using it as an exmaple to illustrate a point,


My thoughts are he will do his best to help progress this project along to production as quickly as possible and will also try and vend other projects into the company, so in 12 months time its a $250m or $500m mkt cap company and not $10m and that way his interest is worth $175m or $350m and not $7m

Everythign is a risk, this is a spec stock nonetheless, but it is cheap and has a very undemanding mkt cap and thus fits my profile for an investment, people should do plenty of research and make sure they are comfortable with the stock the risk the upside everything before they invest


Cheers

p.s. Elvis lives!!!!!!!!!!
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Very interesting guys. I can see both sides to this...

YT I think Datsun is right in that Africa is definitely corrupt and so are its leaders/rulers.

However, Datsun I think YT is also right in that it must be in the kings interest to make the company as large and valuable as possible because as the company values increases his personal holding or wealth increases.

Very tight stock though so I believe it would shot up a lot on any single announcement.


Smurfette:)
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

btw Lake MacLeod is more like 30mmbbl not 150mmbbl. 150 is the filled to spill amount, 30 is most likely the P50. My portfolio isn't bad at all atm, but BFE is certainly one of the standouts, wish I had more of the buggers.
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Hey Bhutos,

When I first saw Lake Macleod estimates of 150 M bls I thought yeah sure thats the target, but whats actually recoverable, sometimes a 150M bl target may only yield a recoverable 50M -75m bls if your lucky,

However from read EGO's presentations the 150M Bl figure is their actual estimate of RECOVERABLE Oil

Now this is as you said filled tot he spil, but I'd assume then a conservative estimate would be 50M bls,

How did you get 30M bls?


Also for interests sake,

30M bls @ $30 a barrel = $900m Net 7% to BFE = $63m

60M bls @ $30 a barrel = $1.8 Billion Net 7% to BFE = $125m

Now note this is using an EV of $30 a barrel and not an I.G.V. of $130 a barrel


The current mkt cap of the company is under $10m with $3m in cash

So a 4M barrel discovery would be suffcient to underwite BFE's current value and leave the large Iron ore project free!
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

YOUNG_TRADER said:
How did you get 30M bls?
Click to expand...

EGO let that nugget slip in a recent announcement. I think the actual words were "a more conservative estimate is 30mbls". It was in one of the SPP announcements from memory.

YOUNG_TRADER said:
The current mkt cap of the company is under $10m with $3m in cash

So a 4M barrel discovery would be suffcient to underwrite BFE's current value and leave the large Iron ore project free!
Click to expand...

BFE is a good spot for LM exposure on your behalf YT, I'd say a duster at LM will have a relatively small impact on sp, but some texas tea would get this pony galloping! Still, EGO will get the adrenaline going.....
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Ahhh, thanks Datusn, I'll go have a read,

But like I said, I do admire the fact that they ar eputting forth the recoverable resource estimate and not just the toatl oil that my be there,

Its a shame when you think about how high the oil price is that we can't recover 90%-100% of the oil in the fields, just think of the daily wasteage, anyway the world does have to get ready to move on one day, so better now then later I suppose


But getting back to BFE, yeah I prefer it as my exposure to Lake Macleod, primarily because to me thats just a bonus, I see it as dirt cheap based on its Fe project, so Lake Macleod is really icing on the cake


Will be interesting to see how the SP performs leading intoi the spudding
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Looks like EGO are drilling ahead to the reservoir objective exciting times ahead:)

"RE: STAR FINCH-1, EP 460, CARNARVON BASIN, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Please find attached the Empire Oil and Gas N.L. ASX Release dated 22 July 2008.
As of 2400 hours 21 July, drilling ahead in 8 ½” hole at 233 metres.
The current operations at the Star Finch-1 well at 0900 hours on 22 July 2008; drilling ahead in 8 ½” hole
at 295 metres to reservoir objectives."
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

lol wrong well,

This current well has nothing to do with BFE, its an EGO well, once Star Finch is finished the rig moves to Lak Macelod which is in a completely seperate area to Star Finch, hence the result here hs very little influence on the prospectivity of Lake Macleod,

In doing my research I made a very interesting discovery,

It looks like the same people behind the acqusition and management of SDL early days while it was transforming into what it is today by acquiring the Mbalam project are the same people helping BFE transform

I found the info in the last few pages of the acquistion ann
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

SDL management. v good. If thats true that would explain why and how a listed equity fund bought BFE.

Can you please put up a link to this?
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Hey Smurfette,

like I said "I found the info in the last few pages of the acquistion ann"

It was the ann dated 28th May titled "Aquisition of Iron ore projects, Kogi State, Nigeria."

Anyway I have copied an extract of it
 

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Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Hey thanks YT,

Funny thing is maybe 5 minutes after I asked for the link I ended up finding it, I was looking at the presentation release not the acquisition announcement.

Company credentials seem to look better the more we dig.

Interesting how that other guy Mr Joseph is a former executive of Nigerian Petroleum.

Do I smell oil projects in the wind?


Smurfette:)
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

Hey guys,

EGO had a duster over at Star Finch, so now the rig is gonna begin moving over to Lake Macleod,

Although this oil well is now a side interest for EGO, a discovery here could be company making given the huge leverage the well offers
 
Re: BFE - Black Fire Energy

bhutos said:
btw Lake MacLeod is more like 30mmbbl not 150mmbbl. 150 is the filled to spill amount, 30 is most likely the P50. My portfolio isn't bad at all atm, but BFE is certainly one of the standouts, wish I had more of the buggers.
Click to expand...

Datsun Disguise said:
EGO let that nugget slip in a recent announcement. I think the actual words were "a more conservative estimate is 30mbls". It was in one of the SPP announcements from memory.
Click to expand...

Hmm just reading over EGO's ann today and yep I now see it

150M bls = filled to spill

30M bls = more conservative

Even 10M bls recoverable = $300m EV value = $21m to BFE or 3x its current EV, so really don't need a huge discovery, just some texas tea as you put it Datsun

So cheap, with so many aces up its sleeve and yet so unloved by the markets but as I've seen time and time again that can and does usually change
 
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