Being contrarian can be very lucrative

[burglar]

I find myself on the back foot defending my position.
Stop!
Rewind!!
I want to be looking forward.

Forget what I said earlier, but thanks for the clarification!


(even Warren Buffett says he doesn't look backwards as it's unproductive).

 

[burglar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJKZVP4tX4k

Here's the interview, Turns out it was only 15c that the manager tried to undercut buffett.

Its a good little video you should watch it.

Its a good little video. I watched it.

Turns out it was only 12.5c ... ,

And she's a good lookin' girl!

 

[RandR]

I consider myself as a contrarian investor. Buying really good stocks at really cheap prices is my game. In 2009 at the height of the GFC I was 99% invested which going against the grain of most who were "waiting" for clear signs before buying. By the time they saw the signs the market had jumped 30%. I was very lucky at one stage, I put my last lousy 2k into my ASX 300 ETF on March the 9th. 2009. The rest of my money I had in at higher prices but for me it was value at those prices anyway. No one can pick bottom that's for sure.

At the end of the day you got to do what you feel is right. Some of those so called pros got it all wrong, VERY WRONG. I remember at one time in 2009 one of those pros said that now you should cash in and get out of stocks altogether, what friggin genius he was. Thinking for yourself and being contrarian could be very lucrative indeed.

Excellent post, good advice !

Anybody have any contrarian plays there planning/looking at following this year 2011 ?

 

[robusta]

Excellent post, good advice !

Anybody have any contrarian plays there planning/looking at following this year 2011 ?

If the markets put on 20% plus like some predict I will be looking to take some profits and move to cash.

 

[Bill M]

Excellent post, good advice !

Anybody have any contrarian plays there planning/looking at following this year 2011 ?

Funny you should mention that RandR, I am looking at QBE right now as a contrarian play. It's also coming up for a dividend in March. Still waiting for even lower prices which may come in the next week but by looking at your signature you already hold them. Top up for you maybe?

 

[So_Cynical]

Anybody have any contrarian plays there planning/looking at following this year 2011 ?

The three big contrarian stock plays i can see for this year are.

• Real estate (especially those heavily exposed to residential)
• Pharmaceuticals
• Infrastructure

Also reckon there will continue to be easy money dividend plays in abundance.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Anybody have any contrarian plays there planning/looking at following this year 2011 ?

Telstra, Toll holdings among others

 

[McCoy Pauley]

The three big contrarian stock plays i can see for this year are.

• Real estate (especially those heavily exposed to residential)
• Pharmaceuticals
• Infrastructure

Also reckon there will continue to be easy money dividend plays in abundance.

I might venture to add consumer discretionary stocks to that list, So_Cynical. As a wag remarked on YMYC a couple of weeks ago, the louder Gerry Harvey bleats about the state of things, the more one should load up on Harvey Norman (please do not take this as an endorsement to buy HVN - I neither hold nor am particularly interested in HVN).

 

[tinhat]

Telstra, Toll holdings among others

While I have no interest in owning TLS, I hope that a turn around in its price might pull the rest of the telecom sector up including my shares in IIN and perhaps even give me a reason to buy some TPN

 

[Tysonboss1]

While I have no interest in owning TLS, I hope that a turn around in its price might pull the rest of the telecom sector up including my shares in IIN and perhaps even give me a reason to buy some TPN

I am not banking on a quick turn around in it's share price, But it doesn't need to have a quick share price recovery for this stock to generate a sound return. As a matter of fact, I think this stock has such a bad reputation that it may take some time for the share price to recover over $3, But who knows.

 

[RandR]

Funny you should mention that RandR, I am looking at QBE right now as a contrarian play. It's also coming up for a dividend in March. Still waiting for even lower prices which may come in the next week but by looking at your signature you already hold them. Top up for you maybe?

I got into QBE in January, Im expecting the SP to continue to go down until the report comes through very very shortly. Very much keeping an eye on it for a top up, I agree i think you'll see lower prices over the next week or two most definitly. But a lot really depends upon the report thats due. The dividend is looking fairly attractive atm.

 

[TheAbyss]

Contrarian is one thing but you got to do your research to know when to risk it .

Interesting article regarding risks of contrarian buying which i found interesting.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/s...own-can-go-down-some-more-20110204-1agzb.html

 

[Tysonboss1]

Contrarian is one thing but you got to do your research to know when to risk it .

That goes without saying with any investment.

Contrarian investing is not about buying things just because the go down, it's about examining the facts and finding areas where the market has over reacted or come to the wrong conclusions and take advantage of it.

 

[So_Cynical]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/sh...204-1agzb.html

■ In February last year Gunns fell 26 per cent in a day. In the next three months it fell another 60 per cent.

Hey i brought Gunns about a week after there big drop and for the next 3 months watched my trade go very bad on me and then watched it come good over the next 2 months and eventually see it trade at about 20% over my buy in price.

 

[ROE]

Contrarian is one thing but you got to do your research to know when to risk it .

Interesting article regarding risks of contrarian buying which i found interesting.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/s...own-can-go-down-some-more-20110204-1agzb.html

That got nothing to do with being contrarian

That got to do with catching a falling knife or buy because of big drop

Contrarian is about identified good stock that are out of favor and not price correctly by the market.. Yes big drop maybe part of it but that just one consideration

Oops tb1 beats me to it -

 

[robusta]

If I was really a contrarian investor I should be taking profits now. The Dow Jones is heading almost straight up and almost every broker/analyst is predicting a 10-20% rally on the ASX this year.

I did sell my MND holdings recently but this is more to do with my policy of buying companies at a discount to IV and selling when the sp is at a substantual premium to IV.

The rest of my portfolio is full of companies that IMO are not overpriced. (FGE, MCE, DWS, FRI, ISS and ONT). I did take some profits on ONT @ $4.15 but only to top up some other holdings. (5% of portfolio is speculation stocks).

The other thing to consider is capital gains tax, my two largest holdings FGE and MCE are 65.8% of my entire portfolio but if I were to take profits on these companies it would incur a significant CGT bill. Combine that with a positive long term view on both companies I will not diversify unnecessarily nor will I trade on short term macroeconomic indicators.

 

[StumpyPhantom]

That got nothing to do with being contrarian

That got to do with catching a falling knife or buy because of big drop

Contrarian is about identified good stock that are out of favor and not price correctly by the market.. Yes big drop maybe part of it but that just one consideration

I thought a number of posts in the last few weeks on stocks justified reviving them under this thread, as being views of contrarian investors about to jump in. The stocks discussed were:

LNC - Linc Energy
CKF - Collins Foods
WHC - Whitehaven Coal (this came from the AFR)
MBN - Mirabela Nickel
MCE - Matrix Composites and Engineering

Grateful any thoughts on other contrarian plays (especially if you're onto something that Orbis is doing in this space), or whether you think any of the above remain in the 'falling knife' category.

 

[skyQuake]

I thought a number of posts in the last few weeks on stocks justified reviving them under this thread, as being views of contrarian investors about to jump in. The stocks discussed were:

LNC - Linc Energy
CKF - Collins Foods
WHC - Whitehaven Coal (this came from the AFR)
MBN - Mirabela Nickel
MCE - Matrix Composites and Engineering

Grateful any thoughts on other contrarian plays (especially if you're onto something that Orbis is doing in this space), or whether you think any of the above remain in the 'falling knife' category.

MBN should have a bit of a bounce in the short term at least. Though they have mentioned capital raising so gotta watch out for that too.

 

[notting]

MBN should have a bit of a bounce in the short term at least. Though they have mentioned capital raising so gotta watch out for that too.

I think that trade was there on Thursday at the close.
Even that would have been a bit of stab in the dark.
I'd find it rather hard to long after Fridays bounce.
Not sure what could make you think that?

 

[So_Cynical]

Grateful any thoughts on other contrarian plays.

The Insurers are all looking a little contrarian at the moment..with QBE and AMP perhaps looking like slightly better value than SUN .. 12 month comparison chart below.
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