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BBP - Babcock and Brown Power

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roland said:
I wonder if BBP will be in contention for the privatisation of the power???? Maybe the ACCC won't like the fact that BBP has it's own gas, have their own generation equipment and want retail as well.....?
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Gidday Roland, Dion... Have you been following the Babcock organised management takeover of Sydney Gas by AJL? This involves AGK, Babcock (BBP?), SGL, AJL & possible others. I have commented on the potential scenarios on the AJL thread.
A closer look here may uncover the BBP approach to the power privatisation and how they may organise to address competition issues.
IMO something big is being put in place....AJL & SGL/AGK will likely control almost all the Coal-seam tenements between SW Sydney, and Gloucester. Positioning ahead of a move to gas-fired generation??
Babcock is likely to seek to utilise potential carbon-credits within this mix.
 
On a day where the market is mostly positive, BBP still manages to drop :banghead:

This probably explains it:
32 buyers for 204,298 units
119 sellers for 1,095,732 units

Seems no-one wants this stock, trading down on very light volume though?

Untested waters too, never been this low.

Col Lector - No I haven't looked at the AJL aspect.
 
Yes Dion, most depressing. BBP is my largest holding. Thinking I might put a bid in for $1.95 :(

Either that or wait until it does a turnaround - hard to know what to do.
 
Roland,

I suppose the only saving grace is in it's short time of trading (floated at 2.70ish in early 07 from what I can tell?) it's moved up quite quickly and rapidly, so maybe it will do the same again. I actually bought in at around 2.70 (not at float though).

BBP is second only to ZFX as the biggest holding and biggest losses I have on my plate. :rolleyes:

I am resisting the urge to buy more, mainly because of my 'rules' about having no more than a certain percentage of my total portfolio in a single stock - I pushed that rule with ZFX and BBP and look where that's taken me ... :rolleyes:
 
I'm averaged at $2.76, but have around 37,000 of these suckers - so each cent hurts.

I think I probably will not get any more until the dividends come through and maybe do some dollar averaging.

I am not overly worried with either BBP or ZFX due to my switch to a longer term focus and dividend harvesting.

I also have a ton of BBW, which hasn't faired much better.
 
Professor Garnaut's Climate Change Report could have some consequences for BBP:

In terms of potential impact for utility stocks, BBP is most at risk followed by AGL Energy. Coal-fired generation contributes approximately 32.5% to BBP’s EBITDA.

Its gas-fired generators are likely to be indifferent or slightly better off from an ETS. While BBP’s current stock price is more affected by the impending $3.0b refinance, the approach to permit allocation is crucial to BBP and
its future value.

For AGL, Loy Yang contributes approximately 7.9% to FY08 NPAT. AGL also owns renewable energy which would benefit from an ETS nullifying the impact on Loy Yang A. Origin Energy does not own any coal-fired generation and hence current earnings are not affected by the decision on permit
allocation methodology.

Paul Johnston
Senior Utilities and Toll Roads Analyst
Click to expand...

The above is from Comsec's Market Bulletin last night
 
Feeling a bit lonely here with BBP :(

Must be the only one holding by now - but, I'm still proving to be resiliant. BBP down a heap today and it's certainly not all about coal and the possibility of the overheads on greenhouse gases since BBW was down as well.

Must still be the financing cost increases, interest rates etc.

Another thing, I haven't been able to factor the impact of the talks of power privatisations.

In any case grabbed a few more today.
 
Still here and still holding BBP, for better or worse.

Certainly out of favour at present with the market. Ah well, at the end of the day, as much as people might dislike coal power, a viable alternative is many many many years away.
 
Well, I am happy with that result, market likes it too:

2008 INTERIM RESULT IN LINE WITH SCHEME FORECASTS -
DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO WELL POSITIONED FOR GROWTH
Babcock & Brown Power (ASX:BBP) today announced 1H2008 EBITDA1
of $154 million, in line with Alinta Scheme Booklet forecasts. A fully tax
deferred distribution of 13 cents per security is payable on 17 March 2008.

The distribution is fully covered by operating cash flows.

Paul Simshauser, CEO said “We are pleased with the performance of the
BBP portfolio and the excellent progress achieved with integrating the
Alinta assets.

“Overall, the portfolio is delivering in line with expectations with strong
power generation performance being offset by slightly lower that expected
results in the Alinta retail business. BBP re-affirms FY08 DPS guidance of
26.1cps reflecting the benefits of a diversified portfolio. BBP is positioned
to generate good growth for Securityholders from the portfolio of
generation assets in Australia and New Zealand and the Alinta retail
business in WA and cashflow available for distribution in 09F is expected
to exceed 08F.
 
I wonder why BBP and BBW have such a long time period between going ex div and the payment date?

3 months quoted as XD certainly doesn't inspire any new investors looking for returns during that period.
 
:banghead: Don't look at the SP now Roland :banghead:

My bottom drawer is becoming quite full ...
 
The market at the moment is ridiculous.

At least I made some cash with the divvies on this one....
 
I'm still here and still holding, have around 40,000 of these fellows now. Every 0.10 down, I buy some more, every 0.10 up I sell. Truthfully, BBP is a really boring stock, but slowly but surely I am getting ahead, the tax deferred dividends means my holdings decrease in average cost over time.

June 25 will see more dividends coming - pity there is such a long delay between ex-div and pay day :mad:
 
what a stinker of a stock.

Spewing i held on for as long as i did. i can see it improving long term but by the time it goes back up i shudder to think what i'm missing out on by not putting that cash somewhere else.

maybe i will cut my losses in a month or 2......
see what happens
 
It's not really doing a whole lot worse than the other BNB satellites - BBI, BBW etc - or even BNB itself for that matter. The saving grace is the large dividend yield.

I played BBW through a couple of dividend returns and with the next one in June, I will be close to having all stock parcels in profit and with a healthy future return.

If only BBP could have a couple of up sessions then we could get on with doing something with this stock. Maybe with winter coming we'll have a little more profit with increased electricity usage ...
 
Still no update on the debt re-finance. IMO, until BBP let the market know about what the pricing is for the debt they are looking to refinance (which I might add they have been doing for 1.5 months now), the share price is going to go no where...

Cheers
 
reece55 said:
Still no update on the debt re-finance. IMO, until BBP let the market know about what the pricing is for the debt they are looking to refinance (which I might add they have been doing for 1.5 months now), the share price is going to go no where...

Cheers
Click to expand...

I sort of agree reece, but with the return of capital arrangement with deferred dividends - even if the SP goes nowhere the cost of ownership drops, so in effect you get the same result as an increase in SP ... and a return (if you hold) with no CGT event.
 
Well, I am a lot happier this week with the performance of BBP's SP. I followed this stinker all the way down to $1.59, picking up a couple of thou every 0.10 or so. I am a little (maybe a lot) over committed, but with the rise to $1.90 today - I've been able to start pulling some profit.

The capital return makes playing the BBP game a little easier so I am pretty happy with this stock. We have another ex-div date coming around 25 June which will again reduce our capital cost - all good.

The latest presentation has obviously added to BBP's positive sentiment. I also noted that we only have 2 x coal powered sites - I thought it was more...
 
Well, 2 days stuck at $1.95 give or take a cent. BBP is proving a little more difficult than the greener equivalent BBW :banghead:

I've been trading BBP with 0.10 gaps, I feel that it is now time to switch to 0.05 which is justified since the swings have slowed and profit taking through the 10 cent gaps have netted enough to follow even lower if necessary.

Only around 7 weeks before ex dividend and want to be stocked up enough to get a good capital return.

I'd like to get BBP into the same position as I have traded BBW, after short term trading and capital returns I have a good sized amount for continued returns, and after another 12 months I would have recouped all costs of the share holdings - so "free shares" so to speak.

The latest Investor Report for BBP looks as solid as usual, debt and financing is under control ... so I am still not sure what is holding BBP back. Maybe someone smarter than me can comment.
 
yeah its frustrating

hopefully the upward momentum will continue in the next weeks..........

its been climbing slowly
 
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