BBOZ - BetaShares Australian Equities Strong Bear Hedge Fund

[basilio]

Bill Gates recently sold 100% and 50% of some big stock names and bought 1. What is the sentiment around this?

No surprises here. Bill is singing the Gamblers song.

 

[bsnews]

I think Blind Freddie could see the economy is Red Hot. That is the problem, the signal, the warning. Doesn't mean it will crash next week or in a month or even a year, but it will crash. These bubbles always crash. Having been in business since the late 1970's I have seen this happen quite a few times.

The real problem with well people is that through our own bias we find the information we want to hear or read to validate our position.
At the end of the day the market does not have any opinions.

 

[over9k]

Ok so there's something to think about right there - what makes you say it's a bubble?

 

[Smurf1976]

Mmm they were saying this 6 months ago though.

It's a bit like the kitten playing with the balloon.

When is anyone's guess but at some point there's a big bang and a startled kitten wondering what on earth happened.

 

[Gunnerguy]

Ok so there's something to think about right there - what makes you say it's a bubble?

With respect to all contributors, these ‘discussions’ come down to two points, and to be a bit of a ‘mediator they are ......

1. P/E’s are way above the median for previous ‘years’ and Civid is not cured yet. A crash is coming, and

2. Interest rates are basically zero and stimulus by many Governments are huge, the market will continue to go up.

I don’t think this has occurred in the past history (PE’s & low interest rates) so it’s up to the investor to decide which suites their ‘argument’.

This may be simplistic, but I do feel these are the two sides to the coin.

He/she who chooses one over the other, with no historical evidence, as there is none, is a better man than me.

My take is, if you are satisfied with what you have (achieved), a bird in the had is better than 2 in the bush. If you are not and want/need more, then accept the risk.

There is no correct answer, yet, but by Christmas we will see.

Stay safe all.

Gunnerguy.

 

[over9k]

I've gone to pretty painstaking lengths in the virus thread to explain why any inflation we're likely to see is going to be short term and powell is also on record as stating the same thing. Combine that with forward guidance being that they're going to keep rates LOW/err on the side of overheating and then the significant amount of soft power/america first economic policy that is coming from washington (Biden's been three times as hawkish on china three times as quickly as anyone was expecting) as well as the simple reality of the economics of demographics and I see major tailwinds from both a P/E and a raw economic growth perspective and so do plenty of others.

I'm genuinely trying to have a discussion here when I say that I don't see how these are bubble conditions. Like what's happened with semiconductors or electric vehicles over the past year, there are major, major long term tailwinds behind the market(s) at the moment.

We aren't talking widespread mortgage fraud, ninja loans, pumps & dumps etc etc like what set the .com bubble or GFC off. These conditions are VERY different.

 

[over9k]

Oh and I forgot to mention how the virus/lockdowns have laid waste to all the small mum & dad businesses and allowed corporate america to swoop in & pick up the spoils. To put it another way, there's been a demand transfer from the small now non-existent businesses to whatever remains(ed).

So in other words, if you transfer demand to publicly listed companies, markets soar as a result. This is not rocket surgery.

 

[over9k]

Bill Gates recently sold 100% and 50% of some big stock names and bought 1. What is the sentiment around this?

Found your answer:

 

[pozindustrial]

Found your answer:

View attachment 123735

View attachment 123736
View attachment 123737

Hahahaha, that is funny! But the selloff of stocks was for the foundation, not Bill personally.

 

[qldfrog]

With respect to all contributors, these ‘discussions’ come down to two points, and to be a bit of a ‘mediator they are ......

1. P/E’s are way above the median for previous ‘years’ and Civid is not cured yet. A crash is coming, and

2. Interest rates are basically zero and stimulus by many Governments are huge, the market will continue to go up.

I don’t think this has occurred in the past history (PE’s & low interest rates) so it’s up to the investor to decide which suites their ‘argument’.

This may be simplistic, but I do feel these are the two sides to the coin.

He/she who chooses one over the other, with no historical evidence, as there is none, is a better man than me.

My take is, if you are satisfied with what you have (achieved), a bird in the had is better than 2 in the bush. If you are not and want/need more, then accept the risk.

There is no correct answer, yet, but by Christmas we will see.

Stay safe all.

Gunnerguy.

And we may not know by Christmas...

 

[over9k]

I think there might be at least some small connection between the two.

 

[finicky]

So this might seem opportunistic, being that the djia was down 900 or so points on Friday, but if I were looking at this weekly chart of BBOZ and didn't know what stock it represented, I would consider a basing interpretation: the candle bodies have been getting small, it's looking a chance at a 'W' or 'double bottom, the momentum is rising. Volume could get interesting this next week.
But is it really worth buying? Your buying and selling would need to have been pretty sharp to have made a significant return on the Wuhan crash, March 2020.

Weekly

 

[qldfrog]

So this might seem opportunistic, being that the djia was down 900 or so points on Friday, but if I were looking at this weekly chart of BBOZ and didn't know what stock it represented, I would consider a basing interpretation: the candle bodies have been getting small, it's looking a chance at a 'W' or 'double bottom, the momentum is rising. Volume could get interesting this next week.
But is it really worth buying? Your buying and selling would need to have been pretty sharp to have made a significant return on the Wuhan crash, March 2020.

Weekly
View attachment 133537

You do not treat these neg eft as weekly, any even medium term exposure is a killer..i know from experience.you are in and out quickly and in my opinion..weekly is not the right time frame to profit from these.
But you can make a profit from these with a system based approach,removed from own human fear and greed

 

[DannyB0000]

Trouble is you don’t how deep this correction will be. This sell off could be over by tomorrow and dip buyers step in and the market rallies again. You need a deep enough correction like March 2020 crash to really profit from owing BBOZ or BBUS.

Dow futures have already moving up slightly as I write this post.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like this has found some support (the top? - maybe too early) and I'm waiting patiently to see a higher high and low. Probably around the level where the 200dma currently sits.

 

[Sean K]

Is this a potential quadruple bottom @DrBourse ?

 

[DrBourse]

Is this a potential quadruple bottom @DrBourse ?

View attachment 134320

NOPE - it's 1 x Triple Bottom, and a Potential 2nd TB.

 

[JohnDe]

Woah, currently $4.00 Who's game?

 

[divs4ever]

not yet ( for me )

much closer to March ( say late February , or even the first week of March )

some big decisions still to be made ( in Australia and Globally ) like will the Fed back off from the taper , but several others

good luck

 

[frugal.rock]

Woah, currently $4.00 Who's game?

My game... balls of brass