Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

Always wanted to start my own thread:

Anyway, not looking for feedback or anything egotistical, but if anyone wants to comment/join in, please feel free.

I am a self confessed Forex junkie. I don't make much money out of it yet, but the biggy for me is, I seem to have stopped losing anywhere near as much as I used to

I will use this thread as a means to post some of my ideas/trades etc etc. so that I am under scrutiny if I stuff up. Hopefully that will keep me more accountable for my sometimes erroneous actions

At the moment I am looking for a spike high on the EUR/USD to 1.36958 to potentially Short it with gusto. I will also be looking for the Mirror spike on the USD/CHF down to 0.89790 to go Long.

I already have partial orders in at around those levels. I like to scale in/out so I can always take a bit of heat on the first one or two legs ............... Nothing quite as good as Hot Legs lol ...... (Ok, so my humour is corny; bad luck about that!)

Heading out ... will post a couple of charts later ... Who knows; might even be filled by then

 

[barney]

OK so the original plan on that particular trade idea is out the window till at least Wednesday, if at all!

The "short with Gusto" was correct but even if I had been home I wouldn't have picked the timing on that.


Couple of charts to show the original (now retrograde) plan.


Expect the EURUSD to make a low around 1.3520 tonight .... If a slightly lower low tomorrow, then a grind back up on Wednesday ...

 

[barney]

EURGBP weakening in a retrace after a down move

EURUSD still weak ... AUDUSD strengthening ...

SHORT EURAUD

 

[barney]

Stop Loss better than Break even ...free trade

 

[barney]

Just before being stopped out ... +2.3 pips ...... Thought it might run harder to the down side ... Wrong!

 

[barney]

Ballsup alert

EURCHF looked weaker than the AUDCHF (correct)

EURUSD looked to be coming off a forming bottom ...... therefore Long AUDUSD (logical)


Opened the AUDUSD chart and accidentally took the entry off the Hourly chart instead of the minute chart:homer:


Managed to get out of jail with a +1.9 pip close but very poor trade!

 

[barney]

Been trading pretty crap this week mainly by chasing short term trades (I am the worlds worst scalper), but got onto one of my favorites tonight. I call it the "Flying Horse Tail" (Swing trade)

Chart of the USDCHF shows the pattern ... After a sustained down move we get a sharp move down, healthy retrace, then lower lows and a quicker bounce off the bottom.

The fact that the EURCHF was still showing weakness coupled with the almost 100% negative correlation on the USDCHF and the EURUSD means look for EURUSD shorts.

If the Horse Tail plays out it is usually worth a minimum of 0.5-1%

Already over 30 pips in profit by the time I've pasted all this up ...... Who said there's no money in Horses

 

[barney]

Close to a support level .... stop tightened twice.

Trade closed ...... +45 pips

Current move 0.5% as anticipated ..... Should get a 50% retracement on that over the next day or so, then reassess.

 

[barney]

"Tail" is easier to see after the move.

When the move fails, it looks like this ...... :horse:

 

[barney]

Posting this up because it could be a classic ballsup

I am currently scaling into Shorts on the GBP/USD .... The chart says the opposite, but my super duper time/range analyser says "Do it" ....

I may well look like a dope, but without posting it I would be fooling myself, and the object is to make myself accountable .... We'll see whether the super duper indicator is useful or not ...lol ...


Charts later ... bit busy at the moment

 

[barney]

Taking a lot of heat on this position ..Doh!!

Entries entries entries ....... Pretty p!ssed off with myself .... Had a bias based on past price action ..... It started to fail but I ignored the signs and added added (one of my bad habits) ....


The position is not to Uncle point yet, but irrespective of outcome, it has been **** trading


Just for the record, the position was taken as a medium term swing trade ...... I was pretty much relying on some follow through with the EUR/GBP strength after yesterday and got aggressive .... bad timing .... again!

Funny thing is now I am fairly underwater, the price action is starting to "behave" the way I had expected .... Timing entries is second only to money management!!

Been a good exercise putting some trades up ... It puts a pressure on you don't get when you stuff up "alone" ... recommend it to anyone trying to sort some issues out

Now, back to my **** entires .... ps I will consider holding this over the weekend if it starts to behave, as my analysis is usually ok; just a day or so early.

 

[barney]

And therein lies the result ..... (GBP/USD shorts)

I did hang on in the end and made a healthy amount of pips, but the bottom line is, my entries in this trade were crap and I could have taken about 500 degrees less heat :2evil:

My analysis that the GBP/USD was ready to drop was correct even though the T/A on the chart looked the opposite in the short term (my super duper time/range indicator ended up being pretty accurate) but my timing (or lack of) was poor ...... Lots of room for improvement, but also some positives to take from the trade.

Chart 1 ...... Even for a multi leg Swing trade it shows in hindsight just how bad some of my entries were ..... (That's why I have to scale in so much

Chart 2 ........ My interpretation of the market was ok in the end ..... just bad timing as usual.

 

[barney]

Lol .... as soon as I went back to the charts after posting the last post, the GBP/USD had reversed into a Flying Horse tail ... I would never have taken that on the way up cause the Pound is rolling off its long term highs and a Horse Tail is a bottoming formation ....... I did immediately take a punt on the high reversal considering I was biased to the short side on the Pound anyway and the .6% move up was against the short term trend ..... Been a lot of .6% moves in both directions recently!

 

[prawn_86]

Good work Barney, some good education in here

 

[barney]

Good work Barney, some good education in here

Yeah Cheers Prawn, Its been a worthwhile exercise so far ..... Stuffing up in "public" certainly adds a new dimension to some of my dodgy trades ...... Been a couple of good one though!

For the record, all trades posted are traded on a small live account, so any bad trades are costing me real cash

 

[barney]

Been crook for a few days so not much trading going on ...

Just picked up some weakness in the EUR/USD tonight but the EUR/AUD is still relatively stronger

Taken a short on the AUD/USD to at least the daily lows before reassessing .......

 

[barney]

Going as planned ... charts to follow ... too hard to do it all while managing trades

Stop close to B/E ... might get last weeks lows with some luck ... If it turns hard and fast will take some profit

 

[barney]

Initial trade

- - - Updated - - -

Going according to plan ....

 

[barney]

Starting to retrace, but the relative strength of the EUR v AUD v USD is still in favour of further down side on the AUD so holding for the moment ...

 

[barney]

Starting to wobble, but still expect one more push down ... Stop to better than B/E, but will still be miffed it it bounces that hard before another drop