Bargains Galore

[Triple B]

From page 1

Slammed like a puffer fish on the jetty!

 

[frugal.rock]

From page 1

Yea, afterpay, there was a brief window of opportunity to sell at a small profit a day or two later... didn't have an order in and was busy.
Missed out... slammed again!

 

[MrChow]

Looks like FLT and WEB aren't better than cruiselines! That happened so quick.

I have a tentative watchlist to make a pool of risk / reward stocks: Using an estimate of what 'return to normal' earnings may look like and calculated PE and PEV (which adds net debt to market cap).

AKG - 6 PE 6 PEV
ANZ - 6 PE 6 PEV
CTD - 6 PE 6 PEV
EXP - 7 PE 7 PEV
WBC - 7 PE 7 PEV
GEM - 3 PE 8 PEV
KPG - 6 PE 8 PEV
NAB - 8 PE 8 PEV
RDH - 9 PE 9 PEV
RKN - 6 PE 10 PEV
PGC - 3 PE 11 PEV
CBA - 11 PE 11 PEV
PTL - 13 PE 13 PEV
TNK - 8 PE 16 PEV

(just used the same figure for bank PE and PEV)

Previous examples of similar stocks from the GFC are:
- ABC Learning, Babcock and Brown lost 100%
- Flight Centre made 1000% bottom to top
- Breville made 2000% bottom to top

 

[MrChow]

Couple of blue chips I consider bad value:

Telstra priced at 18x 2022 earnings post NBN. That's above my best case scenario post-Coronavirus so even its upside has more downside.

Woolworths 27x trailing PE. Temporary boost at the moment but earnings will return to a normal cycle and a valuation return to the mean would result in PE contraction.

 

[So_Cynical]

Some of the REIT's look cheap, Dexus has no or at lest little retail exposure and down about 40% with low debt and long debt maturity.

 

[aus_trader]

Mining and Construction services provider came out of Trading Halt today and gapped down massively with news of loss/cancellation of NZ prison / Green Energy contracts due to disputes.


Makes me think it's hard to pick the bottoms in this environment. Not to mention how unhygienic it is

 

[Dona Ferentes]

After using the GFC for learning about corrections, was wondering what I should try and do in this correction. Plan is to use a bit of spare cash to do something with shares.....

Flight Centre is big enough to survive and should go ok. .....

Finding it hard to get back my $2.4K on tix to N America. I doubt it'll be passed to the airline, either. Sackings a-plenty and closures as would be expected. Deep down, the CEO thinks his nic Scroo is apposite, I suspect

FLT has about 30 brands; some are going gangbusters. 99 Bikes is seeing stock ride out the door. (contact-reducing commuting; make sure you keep those peletons separate, boys!)

 

[OmegaTrader]

Some of the REIT's look cheap, Dexus has no or at lest little retail exposure and down about 40% with low debt and long debt maturity.

What are you looking at for REITS to be good value?

 

[So_Cynical]

What are you looking at for REITS to be good value?

Share price? DXS is down about 40% but the buildings and tenants are all still there, prime office real estate.

DXS had big debt issues as did most REIT's in the GFC but not now, carrying very low debt and has a big pile of cash.

 

[Smurf1976]

With online purchasing ever increasing,
I would be very wary of Stocklands, Westfield's etc.
Bricks and mortar shop's days are getting closer to being numbered.

I can see the current situation acting as a tipping point.

A physical shop for many businesses, especially the idea of having one in every suburb, is a bit like someone owning an old car. They've already got it, it's working, so they keep driving it. No chance they'd purchase that car now however, they've just kept it because doing so was the easiest option that required no effort or investment to do so.

Now that shops are being forced to an online model, it's like the person who finds themselves suddenly forced to get a new car due to a major breakdown, crash or whatever. They don't go looking for another old car like the one they had, they get a modern one and never go back to the old one.

Shops being forced to change from physical to online is much like that. All the barriers both practical and financial have been faced and overcome by force, there was no alternative. Once that investment of time and money is made there's no reason to go back to physical unless the profit from physical is greater than the profit from online which it won't be if the rent's too high.

 

[Smurf1976]

Thoughts are the airlines are likely to be bailed out by government and will recover.

I can see that government will want to get planes flying again for practical reasons, as a means of transport, but I'm not at all convinced that they'll be wanting to bailout shareholders of a failed company.

 

[aus_trader]

I can see that government will want to get planes flying again for practical reasons, as a means of transport, but I'm not at all convinced that they'll be wanting to bailout shareholders of a failed company.

Also it might not be a widespread bailout to all airlines and their brands e.g. Jetstar, Tiger etc. So it might be a case of just keeping one national brand let's say Qantas the flying kangaroo to keep Australia accessible to the world which might be of national interest.
Thinking of Airlines, even the best ones could disappear as what happened with good old Ansett.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I can see the current situation acting as a tipping point.

A physical shop for many businesses, especially the idea of having one in every suburb, is a bit like someone owning an old car. They've already got it, it's working, so they keep driving it. No chance they'd purchase that car now however, they've just kept it because doing so was the easiest option that required no effort or investment to do so.

Now that shops are being forced to an online model, it's like the person who finds themselves suddenly forced to get a new car due to a major breakdown, crash or whatever. They don't go looking for another old car like the one they had, they get a modern one and never go back to the old one.

Shops being forced to change from physical to online is much like that. All the barriers both practical and financial have been faced and overcome by force, there was no alternative. Once that investment of time and money is made there's no reason to go back to physical unless the profit from physical is greater than the profit from online which it won't be if the rent's too high.

I'd like to see the real cost of online reflected in the pricing .
- Packaging ... so much wastage, cardboard and esp single use plastic
- Delivery ...... how inefficient, a two tonne vehicle moving a couple of kgs
- Free return policy .... encourages capricious fickle behaviour

If the subsidies were withdrawn, and the real cost disclosed, then the playing field would be somewhat different.

 

[OmegaTrader]

Share price? DXS is down about 40% but the buildings and tenants are all still there, prime office real estate.

DXS had big debt issues as did most REIT's in the GFC but not now, carrying very low debt and has a big pile of cash.

What about any of the other Reits?

 

[UMike]

What about any of the other Reits?

You'd think Bunnings are doing pretty well so BWP'd be safe.

 

[aus_trader]

You'd think Bunnings are doing pretty well so BWP'd be safe.

Hopefully. But you never know in this environment...
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coro...ronavirus-hits-economy/ar-BB11U4Gm?li=AAgfYrC

 

[frugal.rock]

NCZ may be a consideration?
Between Deutsch Bank group, Credit Suisse, and Macquarie Group, they own around 32% of NCZ.
Credit Suisse last increased their holding 27 march.
Follow the money?

F.Rock

 

[matty77]

Bunnings and Officeworks had an absolute BUMPER march in regards to sales and smashed budgets.

If they can continue to reduce stock and costs they are looking good for the long term future. Obviously if they close it will hurt them but I think worse case scenario is like NZ and trade only stays open while the rest of the store closes. Bunnings are also working towards this on a bay by bay basis in an effort to keep parts of the store open if possible.

WES pricing doesn't tend to do much though, so I wouldn't expect anything different in this case except business as usual and they will suffer like other retail eventually but nowhere near as badly.

Bunnings is also pushing hard for online sales, gym equipment anyone?

 

[aus_trader]

Bunnings and Officeworks had an absolute BUMPER march in regards to sales and smashed budgets.

If they can continue to reduce stock and costs they are looking good for the long term future. Obviously if they close it will hurt them but I think worse case scenario is like NZ and trade only stays open while the rest of the store closes. Bunnings are also working towards this on a bay by bay basis in an effort to keep parts of the store open if possible.

WES pricing doesn't tend to do much though, so I wouldn't expect anything different in this case except business as usual and they will suffer like other retail eventually but nowhere near as badly.

Bunnings is also pushing hard for online sales, gym equipment anyone?

Yes I like their fighting spirit in these hard times...

 

[angus3288]

Yes I like their fighting spirit in these hard times...
View attachment 101918

Yes I agree with BWP but they have to drop back below $3
Look at industrial Reits with low debt