AZR - Aztec Resources

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

tech/a said:

Ever thought that the news your getting IS THE news??

If it keeps rising then keep it.
If it stops long enough then decide if you want to keep it or move on.
If it falls enough sell it.

No need to guess hypothosise or worry.

But thanks for the info on the announcement.

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Good point, this is why the charts determine my strategy (provided I don't get mixed up in the process with all the 'news'). Still away from my stop so no worries and I'm more interested in my other holdings now, AZR trending well even now. We're in February next week and this co will get a move on- it'll all be in the chart- it discounts everything and reflects it in the sp (or so the theory goes). Option expiry on Monday. I'm still not as experienced as you are Tech so till I get the hang of being calm and collected I'll be getting excited about my movers, have to admit AZR is slowly slipping from memory (but always watched) as the danger period is moving away. Will be nice to see solid support becoming evident next month.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi rich
as you know i'm now out. the reason why is my reading of the charts indicates a pullback so i'm not waiting for the stop loss to be hit.
have made a good quid on this one and it's in the bank.
do have a lot of faith in azr they are a winner i just think the sp will take a breather for a while before it takes off again.
todays announcement although positive did nothing for the sp and with the oppies due for conversion on monday @ 20c with the close today @ 20.5c there is no incentive, also in the lead up to the final day there has been no announcement of any oppies being converted. to me it looks like they are lost and a placement is on the cards to Sinom who are going to provide finance for development and construction.

that's they way i read it atm time will tell how it all unfolds.
don't get me wrong there is still a big quid to be made here and i hope i can get some more of it in due course.

will be watching this one very closely
regards croc

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi doc
see you are on line what are your thoughts as you have also made an exit.

croc

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

AZR

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Like I've said, AZR has excellent management and should succeed. I will be looking to buy AZR, especially if they fall as low as tech/a has suggested.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Excuse my foray into comparitive unfamiliar fundamental ground, but it is my advice that perhaps the options finishing in the money is a big positive for Aztec as it edges them ever closer to production.

I'd be very suprised to see it trade at or below 19, but if it does I'll be buying. I've also repurchased a portion of my original holding at 20.

This forum does have a heavy bias towards short term holds of speccies, but I firmly believe that AZR does have a very positive future and I will look to accumulate this stock.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:

Excuse my foray into comparitive unfamiliar fundamental ground, but it is my advice that perhaps the options finishing in the money is a big positive for Aztec as it edges them ever closer to production.

I'd be very suprised to see it trade at or below 19, but if it does I'll be buying. I've also repurchased a portion of my original holding at 20.

This forum does have a heavy bias towards short term holds of speccies, but I firmly believe that AZR does have a very positive future and I will look to accumulate this stock.

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Yes, I guess I shouldn't be so negative about the options as any effect will be temporary. I'm comfortable seeing this fall towards 18c as the trend took off a bit faster than I thought. Might buy more at that stage but depends on the circumstances (eg if it's a resource upgrade and the sp is sitting around 18c and it starts to rise on volume I'm in as I doubt any upgrade has been priced in to the chart).

As for short term bias, it's probably a sign of the number of inexperienced traders (like me). I for one thought it was easy to make lots of money quick if I had the right entry strategy and good TA but after losing money I know I am wrong. Van Tharp has a brief profile of that type of newbie who either loses all capital or is so scared that they never trade again when their $1k didn't turn into $100k overnight. But since I've woken up a bit and adjusted my money mgmt abit, things have improved dramatically. As Van Tharp says it's getting to know yourself that is the first and most important thing (or something to that effect).

Thanks to various factors ranging from Daryl Guppy's books and Safety in the market's money mgmt emphasis to TechA (great thread on positive expectancy) and Van Tharp etc. Getting there slowly, experience (of any nature) is invaluable! But I'll hold AZR if it runs as I too agree it's a long term story. TA will still determine my strategy, the chart will keep me honest.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

RichKid said:

Yes, I guess I shouldn't be so negative about the options as any effect will be temporary. .

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I guess how negative you are depends on your trading plan and your goals. If your focus is maximising returns over time by trading stocks then perhaps you should be negative about it. If however you're happy to ride a stock that has very good prospects in the not too distant future then perhaps you are being overly negative.

Being flexible does have its advantages, however I suggest borrowing a cliche from sport - stick to the gameplan.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:

however I suggest borrowing a cliche from sport - stick to the gameplan.

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Touche! Yes, I mustn't get distracted. I've got my strategy written down for this stock, just have to follow it, exit time is still some way away. Tech's approach is probably an example of how you begin to focus on the material factors (rather than the irrelevant fears and hopes playing on my mind) after years of experience.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

RichKid said:

Yes, I mustn't get distracted. I've got my strategy written down for this stock, just have to follow it, exit time is still some way away.

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You physically right down a strategy for each stock you trade? I'm impressed, I may just try this myself. I'm prone to occasionally diverting from my original strategy (with good and bad results). This may just help.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:

You physically right down a strategy for each stock you trade? I'm impressed, I may just try this myself. I'm prone to occasionally diverting from my original strategy (with good and bad results). This may just help.

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Mate, if it was as simple as following what I'd written I'd be much better off. But believe me it IS REALLY HARD FOLLOWING MY PLAN!! Writing it took me a long time and it may be completely wrong. I do not allow myself to place an order without having a written plan with specifics. Makes me think twice about the whole trade that way.
I basically break down my trade into entry, trigger, exit, positions size, risks etc and fill in details for each trade BEFORE entry. Still getting there and this will change but it gives me peace of mind. Even when I lose money at least I can see where I went wrong (most of the time). Sometimes I find I don't really write down the REAL reason I set a stop at a certain level or why I entered at a certain price but I'm getting to know my wiley inner self and am getting a bit better. Long way to go though. I still can't understand the numbers and matrix in Tech's position sizing thread (hence the reason I'm reading Guppy and Van Tharp) but do want to succeed. I'm a newbie so be warned but there is nothing wrong with writing it down!

I'll only know if my written tactic works in a year or so.

See the threads on trading plans- a few months old but there are some good links in those threads. That was when I was getting started with writing things down. These forums are GREAT!

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

R/K great idea to write down your plan.
Just a couple of ideas.
If your trading in a discretionary manner dont be afraid to alter it in reaction to the latest price action.
Have a FIXED STOP.
If you ever design a mechanical system then everything must be fixed.

KISS Keep it Simple (And due to flack from below "Sensible") just doesnt sound the same does it!

I still can't understand the numbers and matrix in Tech's position sizing thread (hence the reason I'm reading Guppy and Van Tharp) but do want to succeed. I'm a newbie so be warned but there is nothing wrong with writing it down!

Perhaps Ill let this be answered by some others who seem keen to take over some educating.If there is no reply or your answers arent clear then Im happy to help out.

I did notice you didnt mail me for the Matrix? Youll get a far better knowledge using it than just talking about it.

tech

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

tech/a said:

R/K great idea to write down your plan.
Just a couple of ideas.
If your trading in a discretionary manner dont be afraid to alter it in reaction to the latest price action.
Have a FIXED STOP.
If you ever design a mechanical system then everything must be fixed.

KISS Keep it Simple (And due to flack from below "Sensible") just doesnt sound the same does it!

I still can't understand the numbers and matrix in Tech's position sizing thread (hence the reason I'm reading Guppy and Van Tharp) but do want to succeed. I'm a newbie so be warned but there is nothing wrong with writing it down!

Perhaps Ill let this be answered by some others who seem keen to take over some educating.If there is no reply or your answers arent clear then Im happy to help out.

I did notice you didnt mail me for the Matrix? Youll get a far better knowledge using it than just talking about it.

tech

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G'day Tech,
Thanks for the tips, much appreciated. In fact I'm still in the early stages hence need to get around the basics of my plan. I do move my stop up but not down. So are you saying you don't move it at all? Also need to know how to react to price action without losing consistency of method- that is the only way I'll be able to assess its success. Maybe if I do well I'll be able to move to a predominantly mechanincal system. Don't have the software for it yet so it'll take time.

I also note that as Guppy says one of the advantages we traders have is that we can trade when we want to (unlike instos who have to be in the market), so I'm trying to be patient and not overtrade.

As for the Matrix, I thought if I'd emailed for it I'll just end up saving it and doing nothing, thanks very much for making it available. I'm not an excel expert so that's another reason I'll have to take it easy at first. I haven't even organised my data properly and honestly I don't have the time atm to get things in order so I'm trying to gear down my trading till my records are organized and then go full throttle on your thread and plug in figures into the matrix. I'm also one of those people who like to look at the mathematical theory so I really know what the figures produced by the matrix are showing so that I can understand the use of the formulas- all this takes a bit of thinking. I also like Van Tharps explanations it gives me a better idea of what you are referring to Tech, as you obviously can't spell out every single point or idea since the audience is so varied here. I suppose you'll want to write a book on your experiences, methods or something in future, might be fun. I'm still reading Tharp. Still getting to know my personal risk tolerences etc and haven't finalised my goals. It all starts on the inside.

And yes! (ha ha) KISS is the motto and it makes me more comfortable as well- just difficult at first simplifying it and seeing if it works. I got carried away at the start and thought I could do anything. I'll leave complex derivatives and high leverage plays to the experts.

AZR will test my exit strategies as it has gone past the stop and has solid fundamentals (something I look for to reduce risk in my trading). Anyway, won't goo too much off thread here, might have to move it to your pos expec thread. Thanks for the encouragement.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Looks like perhaps selling was a mistake, though I guess nobody ever went broke taking a profit.

Now its just a matter of waiting to see how long it takes them to come out of the halt.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

though I guess nobody ever went broke taking a profit.

They can actually.
It does happen.Lets say you take 10/10% profits on capital of $20k
During those 10% profits you have one loss thats costing you $6500 and you dont want to take the loss(You know how it is) and youve taken 5/15% losses of $3000.Your capital is slowley eroded.

No one ever went broke taking enough profit,and ofcourse enough needs to be quantified.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Fair call. Fortunately my capital doesn't look like doing that atleast for the moment. Any guesses as to when it will come out of the halt?

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

february 2nd

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

The anncmt says 2Feb or earlier (if annct is released before then). I'd go with Croc and say it'll be the 2nd Feb.
BTW, what is AZRN? Listed as some sort of deferred option?? In the notice. Comsec doesn't show any price history. Reckon it's a new issue to be announced? The annoucement could be anything from AZROA exercise to a financing deal or resource upgrade (may be a bit early). Have to wait and see.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Possibly even an underwriter for the options.

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:

Possibly even an underwriter for the options.

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Yes, good point Doc, could be that, I recall Croc flagging that as well. So how would that work?

Does the underwriter just take up (for free?) all the unexercised (expired) options by buying that number of shares at 20c by paying the co?

I don't hold AZROA but I'm keen to know.