AZR - Aztec Resources
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RichKid
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Yes, looking nice. I'll be surprised if it closes above 20c this week, only Thursday and Friday left for trading as Wed is a holiday. So next Monday is the last day for the oppies to get in, I'm hoping they wont so it doesn't dilute the sp as you mentioned Croc.
I've also managed to figure out the answer to my question about the oppies AZROA. Basically you can't trade em after the day it says they stop trading (21Jan) and from then on until expiry you can only convert them to ordinary shares (if you want to). This is my understanding, not sure if it is at all correct.
Yes, looking nice. I'll be surprised if it closes above 20c this week, only Thursday and Friday left for trading as Wed is a holiday. So next Monday is the last day for the oppies to get in, I'm hoping they wont so it doesn't dilute the sp as you mentioned Croc.
I've also managed to figure out the answer to my question about the oppies AZROA. Basically you can't trade em after the day it says they stop trading (21Jan) and from then on until expiry you can only convert them to ordinary shares (if you want to). This is my understanding, not sure if it is at all correct.
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
hi rich
yes you are correct about azroa they have now been suspended from trading and need to be converted by 31-1-05.
buy depth even stronger since i last posted.
looks to me like many of the oppies will be converted
croc
hi rich
yes you are correct about azroa they have now been suspended from trading and need to be converted by 31-1-05.
buy depth even stronger since i last posted.
looks to me like many of the oppies will be converted
croc
RichKid
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Eat my shorts! Can't believe it, at 21c already. Stop moved up to 17.5c, it'll stay there unless something unexpected happens. Let's see if it closes at 21c or moves below. Strong depth continues. Wonder what the effect of the oppies will be, hate to see a retracement. Nice to see some extra cash for the co if they are itm. Still a few days to go.
Eat my shorts! Can't believe it, at 21c already. Stop moved up to 17.5c, it'll stay there unless something unexpected happens. Let's see if it closes at 21c or moves below. Strong depth continues. Wonder what the effect of the oppies will be, hate to see a retracement. Nice to see some extra cash for the co if they are itm. Still a few days to go.
tech/a
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doctorj
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Tech and others, what is your take on how the options affecting the share price. I agree with you that the chart looks like its off again, but its likely to revalue lower come Jan 31 with the dilution, right?
I'm not that experienced in these situations, any help is appeciated.
Tech and others, what is your take on how the options affecting the share price. I agree with you that the chart looks like its off again, but its likely to revalue lower come Jan 31 with the dilution, right?
I'm not that experienced in these situations, any help is appeciated.
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
hi all
what a great finish today
1 a new nigh created
2 openned lower and closed on that new high
3 volume up
4 buyer depth exceptionally strong
177 buyers 13950144 shares
107 sellers 7455201 shares
what more can you ask for of a stock?
conclusion STAY IN THE TRADE for the time being.
MY THOUGHTS
the oppies are now in the money- but only by 1c.
if they are taken up it will add another 121mil shares to the existing 362,644,601 on issue, which will mean a dilution to the sp and inevitably a pullback to around 18.5c which now seems to be the new support level.
with the activity of today there looks like another announcement in the waiting ie before jan 31 which will more than likely kick the sp a bit more from todays close.
after the anouncement i believe the sp will pullback.
anytime now is an exit for me and i will wait for a re- entry at lower levels to enjoy the ride again.
these are my thoughts
reallly interested in any other comments
regards croc
hi all
what a great finish today
1 a new nigh created
2 openned lower and closed on that new high
3 volume up
4 buyer depth exceptionally strong
177 buyers 13950144 shares
107 sellers 7455201 shares
what more can you ask for of a stock?
conclusion STAY IN THE TRADE for the time being.
MY THOUGHTS
the oppies are now in the money- but only by 1c.
if they are taken up it will add another 121mil shares to the existing 362,644,601 on issue, which will mean a dilution to the sp and inevitably a pullback to around 18.5c which now seems to be the new support level.
with the activity of today there looks like another announcement in the waiting ie before jan 31 which will more than likely kick the sp a bit more from todays close.
after the anouncement i believe the sp will pullback.
anytime now is an exit for me and i will wait for a re- entry at lower levels to enjoy the ride again.
these are my thoughts
reallly interested in any other comments
regards croc
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Croc.
You seem to be taking an each way bet.Stay in for the time being and your out anytime for a re entry.
Me Ill watch price action and stay with it.
Option expiry will have little influence on price.
Croc.
You seem to be taking an each way bet.Stay in for the time being and your out anytime for a re entry.
Me Ill watch price action and stay with it.
Option expiry will have little influence on price.
RichKid
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Options expiry, seem to be the major issue at the moment re dilution. I've been watching BSG and they adjusted their sp to reflect the exercise of options (look at pricing on Bigcharts.com (old pricing) and compare to current pricing (eg CommSec- adjusted price) OR see the Bolnisi thread. Basically high adjusted from 60c+ to 56c but obviously the dilutory effect varies according to the number exercised, the sp how far they're in the money etc but that's just my guess. So options about 30% more shares will be issued if all AZROA are converted (which means AZROA holders have to have the dough to pay for the AZR shares). The higher AZR goes the less the effect for me by options on sp as my profits will be preserved.
As for getting out of this trade- not for me, I want my profits to run- 18c for shares like this is a psychological price that is common imo, sounds silly but with the co on the verge of something big it should range to low to mid 20s. For you Croc, you've made a heap on this one so I can understand you wanting to cash in without risking more. Perhaps a reentry with a smaller position size if I were you, but this is not advice as I have a habit of being wrong (ie didn't buy in at 10c! went for short term profits in AZROA instead). Another strategy is to take your capital out and leave the profits to run as you have doubled your money. All depends on your individual plan. Please don't be misled by me views if you have another plan- I know it's sometimes hard to exit.
Recent rise in volume and strong close bodes well for AZR, let's see what the annoucement is, if there is one. I'm waiting on the final rounds of the iron ore negotiations to see how much they hike prices by (30%+). I expect Australia will ask for a higher hike than the others once it's our turn.
Options expiry, seem to be the major issue at the moment re dilution. I've been watching BSG and they adjusted their sp to reflect the exercise of options (look at pricing on Bigcharts.com (old pricing) and compare to current pricing (eg CommSec- adjusted price) OR see the Bolnisi thread. Basically high adjusted from 60c+ to 56c but obviously the dilutory effect varies according to the number exercised, the sp how far they're in the money etc but that's just my guess. So options about 30% more shares will be issued if all AZROA are converted (which means AZROA holders have to have the dough to pay for the AZR shares). The higher AZR goes the less the effect for me by options on sp as my profits will be preserved.
As for getting out of this trade- not for me, I want my profits to run- 18c for shares like this is a psychological price that is common imo, sounds silly but with the co on the verge of something big it should range to low to mid 20s. For you Croc, you've made a heap on this one so I can understand you wanting to cash in without risking more. Perhaps a reentry with a smaller position size if I were you, but this is not advice as I have a habit of being wrong (ie didn't buy in at 10c! went for short term profits in AZROA instead). Another strategy is to take your capital out and leave the profits to run as you have doubled your money. All depends on your individual plan. Please don't be misled by me views if you have another plan- I know it's sometimes hard to exit.
Recent rise in volume and strong close bodes well for AZR, let's see what the annoucement is, if there is one. I'm waiting on the final rounds of the iron ore negotiations to see how much they hike prices by (30%+). I expect Australia will ask for a higher hike than the others once it's our turn.
RichKid
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
I suppose this is where Gann and Fibonnacci may help with those percentage lines giving an idea of where price may change ahead of the current high (hence a target to exit at). (A 'key level' as called by some). I'm just watching the sp atm, can't do much when there's no reason to.
I suppose this is where Gann and Fibonnacci may help with those percentage lines giving an idea of where price may change ahead of the current high (hence a target to exit at). (A 'key level' as called by some). I'm just watching the sp atm, can't do much when there's no reason to.
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
hi rich and all
yep azr has been good to me.
i researched early made my entry and have been waiting patiently for it all to unfold which is now happening.
we all know the storey here with quality of the ore and the chinese/japanese contracts which are yet to be finalised.
i think the sp will still go higher from here, how much who knows [25c maybe] but at some stage it is going to pullback for a breather.
the next announcement will tell us more, just how much we will have to wait and see.
the real money will come when they go into production but thats not until july[i think] many things still to do eg build camp, port etc all takes money and time.
azr atm i believe is in the over bought mode and at some stage this will change.
to me buy depth has been a good indicator and i will be watching that very closely along with the other indicators of change.
i'm staying in till the next announcement -- see what they say then re-assess from there. i think we should know something by monday at the latest.
these are my thoughts in open book form.
i'm still in the learning game and very interested what others think about how to play this stock.
azr is a winner lets get as much out of it as we can.
regards croc
hi rich and all
yep azr has been good to me.
i researched early made my entry and have been waiting patiently for it all to unfold which is now happening.
we all know the storey here with quality of the ore and the chinese/japanese contracts which are yet to be finalised.
i think the sp will still go higher from here, how much who knows [25c maybe] but at some stage it is going to pullback for a breather.
the next announcement will tell us more, just how much we will have to wait and see.
the real money will come when they go into production but thats not until july[i think] many things still to do eg build camp, port etc all takes money and time.
azr atm i believe is in the over bought mode and at some stage this will change.
to me buy depth has been a good indicator and i will be watching that very closely along with the other indicators of change.
i'm staying in till the next announcement -- see what they say then re-assess from there. i think we should know something by monday at the latest.
these are my thoughts in open book form.
i'm still in the learning game and very interested what others think about how to play this stock.
azr is a winner lets get as much out of it as we can.
regards croc
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Croc.
Buy and sell depths after the first 2 tiers are pretty meaningless.
Lets face it those logged in to buy at 5 ticks below current price arent all that interested millions are traded while they sit and wait.
They are also buying a falling knife and often disappear when a fall comes.
Those on the sell side are only serious sellers at the first 2 levels as well,any longer and they are just logging to take profit and they often disappear as price rises and chace price when it falls?
A 2-5 min tick chart will tell you way more!
Anyway thats just my veiw!
Croc.
Buy and sell depths after the first 2 tiers are pretty meaningless.
Lets face it those logged in to buy at 5 ticks below current price arent all that interested millions are traded while they sit and wait.
They are also buying a falling knife and often disappear when a fall comes.
Those on the sell side are only serious sellers at the first 2 levels as well,any longer and they are just logging to take profit and they often disappear as price rises and chace price when it falls?
A 2-5 min tick chart will tell you way more!
Anyway thats just my veiw!
RichKid
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Funnily enough this is the stage at which most bigger brokers start to get interested. As mentioned elsewhere by Ghotib there was an article in Shares mag discussing how juniour resource stocks get major reratings as soon as they move out of the initial high risk phase- ie securing funding, building plant, securing buyers etc before production.
Clearly we're not there yet but the tipsheets will now be reassessing the chances for the next few months and I expect greater coverage and support as a result, not just becauae iron ore is on the map. So this is a stage at which I expect more people to come in (rather than out). Look at the number of reports available on the AZR website for example, and that was a year ago when things were much less certain.
The next month will be very volatile imo as funding deals are announced, ore prices are negotiated, new resource upgrades are announced etc. So the sp will be very sensitive to news. I feel I've bought in low enough to absorb most of the volatility- it's the downside risk that is my concern atm.Then it's just a matter of the BFS coming out and construction going ahead. Hope this makes sense, I'm just trying to break it up into different periods while keeping the sp in mind.
Funnily enough this is the stage at which most bigger brokers start to get interested. As mentioned elsewhere by Ghotib there was an article in Shares mag discussing how juniour resource stocks get major reratings as soon as they move out of the initial high risk phase- ie securing funding, building plant, securing buyers etc before production.
Clearly we're not there yet but the tipsheets will now be reassessing the chances for the next few months and I expect greater coverage and support as a result, not just becauae iron ore is on the map. So this is a stage at which I expect more people to come in (rather than out). Look at the number of reports available on the AZR website for example, and that was a year ago when things were much less certain.
The next month will be very volatile imo as funding deals are announced, ore prices are negotiated, new resource upgrades are announced etc. So the sp will be very sensitive to news. I feel I've bought in low enough to absorb most of the volatility- it's the downside risk that is my concern atm.Then it's just a matter of the BFS coming out and construction going ahead. Hope this makes sense, I'm just trying to break it up into different periods while keeping the sp in mind.
doctorj
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Good early buy depth again today. Will be interesting to see how this one fairs over the day.
Good early buy depth again today. Will be interesting to see how this one fairs over the day.
RichKid
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Annct- nothing much imo, old news from October. Three months since then(Nov, Dec, Jan) let's see if they have something new to offer next month on the more recent work. I think they're just feeding us odds and ends till the real news hits. Still solid depth on buying side despite price falling to 20c.
Annct- nothing much imo, old news from October. Three months since then(Nov, Dec, Jan) let's see if they have something new to offer next month on the more recent work. I think they're just feeding us odds and ends till the real news hits. Still solid depth on buying side despite price falling to 20c.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
Ever thought that the news your getting IS THE news??
If it keeps rising then keep it.
If it stops long enough then decide if you want to keep it or move on.
If it falls enough sell it.
No need to guess hypothosise or worry.
But thanks for the info on the announcement.
Ever thought that the news your getting IS THE news??
If it keeps rising then keep it.
If it stops long enough then decide if you want to keep it or move on.
If it falls enough sell it.
No need to guess hypothosise or worry.
But thanks for the info on the announcement.
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
hi all
just to let you know i'm out @ 20c
whether thats good or bad will have to wait and see.
will look for a re-entry now in the near future when i think its the right time.
good luck to all who still hold.
regards croc
hi all
just to let you know i'm out @ 20c
whether thats good or bad will have to wait and see.
will look for a re-entry now in the near future when i think its the right time.
good luck to all who still hold.
regards croc
doctorj
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Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?
I'm out on this one too this morning. My sell order is in at 0.21 and now I'm just going to wait it out. AZR is a great stock and I wouldn't be at all suprised to find this stock reaches 70c one day in the not too distant future, but its time for me to leave for the time being and buy back in a little bit later on.
Good luck to those that hold AZR, I'll be back with you shortly
I'm out on this one too this morning. My sell order is in at 0.21 and now I'm just going to wait it out. AZR is a great stock and I wouldn't be at all suprised to find this stock reaches 70c one day in the not too distant future, but its time for me to leave for the time being and buy back in a little bit later on.
Good luck to those that hold AZR, I'll be back with you shortly
