AZR - Aztec Resources

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi rich
well it does look great for AZR. these bits and pieces all take time to put together[longer than us traders would like] however the light at the end of the tunnel here is a fire.

this is what i think the play will be with regards to announcements this month
1 completion of bfs proving it's a goer and now backed by Societe General Group.
2 finalisation of deal with chinese with financial support.
3 results of continued drilling on Acacia and Barramundi ore bodies which will lead to further upgrades.

all to happen before january 31 which will bring the 20c oppies well into the money.

now how do you like those little apples
regards croc

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Hi Croc,
Yes, certainly looks positive- the market depth for AZR certainly proves it, lots of orders either side of 15c. 16c is the resistance level imo that will need to be broken for it to go 20c+, the market is sitting just short of it waiting for any good excuse to fly through it imo.

My only concern is your first point in your last post, the BSF looks well advanced but they'll need to announce it before the end of the month for it to affect the oppies, knowing AZR this'll happen suddenly but since they don't release regular tid bits of info we'll have to wait, it may even be early Feb but if the other two bit of news you mention turn out well the oppies will be ok regardless of the BSF. Even a very positive resource upgrade alone will be good enough imo as the last run was on the back of an upgrade. This is even before considering the unexplored areas on Koolan which will be drilled over the next year. There's also the Tantulum and rare metals project in the Kimberleys which has taken a back seat for now. Hence the market re-focus on AZR is clearly not surprising, it's been a long road but it's finally coming to fruition.

Also noted that part of the finance arrangements saw the shares valued at 23c so that's is the minimum to be expected now for the sp valuation in the short term (next two months or sooner imo); it's the transition stage risk premium that's keeping the sp down in the short term. sp also falls away when no news is expected (as it did when it fell to solid support at 10c last year, an easy gain of 50% for those who knew and bought AZR then) so its continued strenght at 15c suggests confidence in the upcoming news.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Stumbled on this while searching for info.

Use Google and type in 'aztec resources fat' and checkout some early stock analyst reports on AZR. I didn't post it direct for copyright reasons. It's totally free.

 

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi rich

went to the site had a quick look around but only found really old news.
did i miss something?

regards croc

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi rich
went to the site had a quick look around but only found really old news.
did i miss something?
regards croc

Hi Croc,
If it's the fatprophetsreviews found via Google (I did mention it was not up to date- "early") then it is old, just good for some background from an independent perspective rather than from the co itself, hence my post.

I couldn't find any new info, Ian Burston must be neck deep in negotiations.

This link has an old presentation from around mid 2004, video from a presentation http://www.imediat.com.au/riu/ec/2004/AZR/

I had a look at it to get a better idea of where things are, now that most of what was discussed there has occurred. Again nothing new, just a guide to the overall project. Burston seems to have a healthy sense of humour, might be good to charm the bankers and investors! The funny bits are at the end during question time...

 

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi rich
went to''imedict" link with no success seems i might be lacking in some software however no big deal seems that i"m not missing anything as nothing we don't already know. thanks anyway.
a little better volume today with a good close. have to admit that i'm not so confident atm of the oppies getting over the line. would be a shame for the company but has no immediate impact on me.
AZR is still a winner in my books.

regards croc

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Yes, does appear to be bad for the oppies but we wont know till later, it's a lot of money for the co to sacrifice.
AZR is certainly a goer, the market depth and chart shows it.
Yes the link is a problem, try the audio only link if you prefer but it's not essential info imo.

 

[tech/a]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

AZR is certainly a goer, the market depth and chart shows it

Rich and Croc.

Certaintly seems we have opposing veiws on quite a few prospects.
Think the difference is that you see a fundumantal opportunity,but your not sure when it will be reflected in price,so your forced to take a position when you first become aware of it.

I on the other hand have no idea on any stocks fundamentals and dont become interested until a stock proves its bullish.

UTB is one example been on that since $3.60 a couple of years ago.

How do you choose which opportunity is the best to trade?
Wouldnt you have more fundamental opportunities than cash or do you just sit in all of them?

 

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

tech
you and i trade differently, that is blatantly obvious. infact you probably trade differently to most who are on this site, but that doesn't mean we don't make money either.

i prefer to buy [at opportunity] a stock that has a good fundamental grounding. if the sp doesn't jump the next day it doesn't worry me because it more than likely will in due course. my homework goes into what the company has and what its plan for the future is, so unless you can fault the fundamentals of my research will you please get of my case. you have no idea when i buy or sell a stock but i do hold it longer than you do [i presume]

i have no intention of explaining to you the way i trade anymore but i am still willing to talk about stocks in general.

by the way if you had bought MUL when i posted it at a buy @ 2.8c and sold @ 3.1c there was a profit of 10+% anyway lets not go into that again.

without question you do have a good input to this site so perhaps you might be able to alert us to some stocks you watch and when you reckon they are a buy. i'm sure many of us would be very interested in following your recomendations

regards croc

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

I can't see what's wrong with finding stocks with good fundamentals and then trading on price breakout or if the information is so good that it needs to be acted on immediately via entry. In my case, if support is nearby and it's near enough for my stop loss relative to entry then why not enter? For example break above 16c on volume can be a valid signal as that has been the resistance so far, I don't know if that ascending triangle pattern will look quite the same if it does break out later but chances are my entry price will be close to 17c if the breakout is strong (as required) with stop loss at 16c. (Breakouts at apex of triangles aren't always the strongest- pattern may change to a consolidation by next week or if prices drop it may become a longer triangle with a lower gradient/upward slope....will have to reassess then)

I also agree with Croc's comments, no point trying to shoot down everyone who tries to put up their views on this board when it is contrary to yours, there must be some basic level of etiquette no matter how much better your analysis is than ours (but we don't know that since we're not in your league).

I don't know what Joe (the Boss) thinks but he's going to have to get involved in this at some stage imho as things may get ugly (ie too much slanging). I note reputable (ie well known and well respected) people like Daryl Guppy (for example) help out in other boards and they present their views without knocking people down. People will stop using these forums if they think they are going to be bulldozed by overly assertive experts.

I too welcome your comments but let's just get along.

 

[tech/a]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

What the???

My post above wasnt meant to be aggressive or assertive.I re read it and I cant see anything than an admission that we look and trade stocks differently.I then present my veiw.

I present 2 basic questions which you ignore!

Youve all got this idea (50% here) that Im trying to prove Im a better trader than all of you---------what rubbish.
If that was the case why would I post my selections on another site?

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum48/HTML/000024-2.html

I dont post for other people to follow my trades.
I post with ideas to the methodology of trading it.Live examples of (WIN LOSE OR DRAW) of implementation of a trade.What you do when your winning and what to do if your losing are FAR more important than what your trading!!!!
I see heaps of stock selections and discussions on this site but NOTHING on how its being traded.

Why's that??

I endeavor to make my posts informative and with a purpose.

Im sick of this Rubbish/Inuendo that Im making a personal point!
Ill say it once again for you Croc,Rich,Crashy and anyone else who thinks I have a personal agenda---Constructively criticise the input but leave the personal digs in your Bleeding Volvo's :fu:

Ive highlighted it in BOLD cause Im not happy.(Particularly when you put in hrs of your time in the endeavor to help others in their endeavors and then this Bullsheet!)

 

[Bingo]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

I don't know what Joe (the Boss) thinks but he's going to have to get involved in this at some stage imho as things may get ugly (ie too much slanging). I note reputable (ie well known and well respected) people like Daryl Guppy (for example) help out in other boards and they present their views without knocking people down. People will stop using these forums if they think they are going to be bulldozed by overly assertive experts.

I too welcome your comments but let's just get along.

Richkid,

Let me first say that I find that the alternative views put up by participants are helpful. I ask you to reread the comments by tech/a as I found then OK and he was just offering an alternative viewpoint. You both come from opposite points of view and will no doubt disagree from time to time.

Have a nice day.

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

I've been keeping an eye on this thread and thought it might be a good time to step in and make a few comments.

It's okay to disagree and even argue heatedly. Forums like this are all about the exchange of ideas and information. They're also about people of different life experiences, methodologies and areas of expertise coming together. In my opinion that is extremely valuable.

The one thing that I won't tolerate on these forums is personal abuse and name calling. That is easy enough to find on other forums. But in my opinion nobody here has crossed the line. As an example, calling someone an "idiot" is probably going to get a warning from me. While calling someone "misinformed" will not. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, misinformed or not.

It's okay to disagree lets just all show each other some common courtesy and basic respect.

Other than that, please carry on... interesting thread.

 

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

tech
went into reefcap. an interesting site thanks for the link
croc

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

What the???

My post above wasnt meant to be aggressive or assertive.

Okay Tech, maybe I'm too sensitive and should toughen up to your style. I'm glad you weren't Trying to be overly aggressive (which is my main point).
Thanks for the link, that thread on Reefcap is great, maybe I'll have more of a look there and in similar forums from now on, glad you're still going with CUE I remeber we first discussed it sometime ago when you were thinking of setting up a strategy for penny stocks (before your untimely departure for a short time). I still think strong language is strong language, even if you spell the words differently.

Let's just keep these forums going...

 

[tech/a]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Hey no problems Even You Crashy.

Personally I appreciate anyone who calls a spade a spade provided-----

They have content to the issues they raise.
Wish more people would do it there would be less misunderstanding/procrastination both qualities that should not be part of your trading arsenal.

tech.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

AZR is certainly a goer, the market depth and chart shows it
....
Think the difference is that you see a fundumantal opportunity,but your not sure when it will be reflected in price,so your forced to take a position when you first become aware of it.
....
How do you choose which opportunity is the best to trade?
Wouldnt you have more fundamental opportunities than cash or do you just sit in all of them?

Just from my perspective good fundys doesn't mean I buy immediately, I wait for the technical trigger. I missed an opportunity to buy in at 10c because I wasn't sure if the head and shoulders reversal pattern had been invalidated although it was eventually by time confirmation and consolidation at 10c support followed by a breakout. I had no real system so didn't enter. Instead I traded AZR via the AZROA oppies for more leverage through more movement and clearer support/resistance lines. Now I'm looking at entering AZR fpo's as the options (no time value) are dying (unless good news takes AZR over 20c, which could seriously happen, pretty spectacular if it does- only a small chance of it now).

So far no real trigger for me to enter AZR. I note your resistance line is higher than mine, which means your entry would be safer. I didn't consider that, instead I went for a slightly riskier trade trading the breakout from 16c resistance on volume (see my post on this above)- from observing this stock I would see an annoucement near the surge in price and that would help determine exit strategy. I note this wait and see approach to exit is similar to yours on Reefcap for the small speccies and although I would have a predetermined profit usually this one is worth the extra risk IMO as it may yield more, anticipated support at 16c is also good imo for reducing downside. Still too early to call, the price action will unfold day by day, patterns change.

 

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi rich
looks like things are starting to make a move 1.7mil trades so far.

buying depth has also strengthened 7.985mil on the buy side as against 4.5mil on the sell side.

regards croc

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

An article on some action in this sector (iron ore), let's see if it rubs off on AZR with market interest focused on these little co's. As for volume today on AZR, I'd like to see at least double (or triple) that volume, but from what you've described Croc it really is building up.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Foreign-predator-eyeing-Portman/2005/01/10/1105206051740.html

I was just doing some maths on the oppies:
If I buy in at the smallest figure (ie $500, plenty of AZROA sellers at $0.001, it'll buy you 500k oppies ) and AZR runs to $0.20c+ (as it appears to be preparing to do) then the oppies will be in the money (exercise at 20c) so an investment of $500 will become (500k x $0.20c) $100,000 at least! (Check my maths to be sure). Risk to reward 1:200 There is a very high probability of losing $500.

So if there is any sign of the AZR sp going north AZROA will be a VERY VERY high risk speccy to get into. Remember, AZR only has to go up by about a few cents above the recent resistance for the oppies to be in the money. So you basically look to lose $500 with HUGE upside, one for the crazy gamblers, I'll be watching this closely, hope I'm around when the action starts. Somepeople may just consider $500 to be cannon fodder (like buying a lottery tix). It all depends on AZR, worth watching!! Two weeks to go...

I've done the maths above mainly to see the theoretical outcome but may actually trade it if things look good, I know it sounds crazy but I'll be watching in case it's worth entering the oppies. The AZR trade (see posts above) of course is much safer but the returns are lower too.

This is not a recommendation to enter a trade so please don't!

 

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi rich

the oppies expire 31-1-05 so nearly 3 weeks to go.
be very interesting to see how it all pans out over that period but with no takers on the oppies @ 0.1c too risky for me to even contemplate.

regardless of whether the sp increases to get the oppies over the line or not AZR wiil definetly be a very profitable company in due course.

burstan is well regarded in the industry so he probably has more than 1 ace up his sleeve.

volume increased today with more buyers than sellers so it appears the interest is generating. where to from here well tomorrow is another day but things are looking more promising than last week. as always we will have to wait and see.

regards croc