AZA - Anzon Australia

[yogi-in-oz]

Warning: ..... astrostuff ahead:

Hi Michael,

AZA ..... as requested, here's a brief overview of anticipated
time cycles over the coming months .....

May run up, to have a look at previous high, around 1.40,
but so far the rally has been made on decreasing volume,
so it may not last too long ..... ???

Some key dates for AZA may be:

22032006 ..... negative spotlight on AZA ... a high???

07042006 ..... minor changes ..... finance-related???

14-18042006 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles here???

21042006 ..... minor management changes???

05-08052006 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles here
..... finance-related ???

19-23052006 ..... significant and positive news from
2 time cycles here.

31052006 ..... changes in finances ???


05-06062006 ..... 3 time cycles here ..... negative news of
long-term changes, tempered by a mild positive cycle, late
on 06062006 ???

22-23062006 ..... significant and negative sentiment

26062006 ..... positive financial news???

3006-03072006 ..... minor and positive news ???

-----

Technically, a break above 1.40 should see some new
buyers come in from the sidelines, while a breakdown
below 1.20 will probably see some panic selling, as
stop loss orders are triggered.


Hope this helps you some .....

happy days

yogi

 

[kgee]

Has anyone any views on Anzons takeover bid of Nexus...I'm kind of new to the game and the general feeling that I have been getting is that with this aquisition they would become a candidate for the S&P/ASX 200...which would ultimately bring in more investors from the sidelines
Being a novice would I be correct in thinking that Anzon is going into a sellers market? ie now they have the huge cash flow coming in they ultimately have to buy somthing to replenshish there reserves and keep growing?.....so could this need push them into buying at a premium price?

 

[kgee]

I dug up some more info ....



Monday, March 27, 2006

ANZON Australia is planning to double the size of its Basker/Manta field development in a move that does not depend on a successful takeover of fellow Bass Strait junior, Nexus Energy. By RICK WILKINSON



The Crystal Ocean FPSO

Buried by the avalanche of publicity surrounding Anzon's takeover bid for Nexus last week is a short paragraph in the Anzon 2006 annual report released on the same day that flags the opportunity to begin commercial gas production from the project early in 2007.

Gas production could be up to 50 million cubic feet per day delivered into the Eastern Gas Pipeline that runs between Victoria and coastal New South Wales.

In his chairman's letter to Anzon shareholders, Steve Koroknay notes that the performance of the Basker-2 well has shown that the field reservoir has a very strong water drive mechanism, so gas re-injection, originally planned as a pressure maintenance measure, would not be required.

In addition, Anzon's reservoir engineers have found that the volume of solution gas within the oil at Basker is much higher than expected.

Chief operating officer, Andrew Young, says the gas-oil ratio (GOR) in the field is close to 1000 cubic feet per barrel.

"When the full field development of three Basker wells and one Manta well comes on stream in September this year at 25,000 barrels a day, we will be producing 25 million cubic feet a day of solution gas alone," Young says.

"That is without tapping the deeper, predominantly gas reservoirs at Manta or touching the nearby Gummy gas field."

In the light of this early Basker reservoir production history, Anzon and its joint venture partner Beach Petroleum are altering their approach to the overall development program.

"The Basker-3 well, originally planned for re-injection of gas produced from Manta into the Basker oil reservoir, will now be made into a dual completion," Young says.

"We will make a completion as planned in the Basker oil zone. But we will also make a second completion in a smaller, separate overlying sand, which contains mostly gas. Until our commercial gas facilities are ready we will reinject gas production into the higher sand and keep the lower zone closed off.

"When we begin commercial gas production, we will close off the upper completion and open the valves in the oil zone so that Basker-3 becomes an extra oil producer and helps maintain the production rate from the field during 2007."

At this point all the Basker solution gas and gas from Manta (including a planned Manta-3 deep gas well) will contribute to the accelerated commercial gas flow, which could be up to 50 million cubic feet a day.

To turn this raw gas into sales gas, Anzon and Beach plan to use the FPSO 'Crystal Ocean' as a processing facility.

Young says once the semi-submersible rig 'Ocean Patriot' has finished drilling the Basker-3, 4 and 5 wells in May, the construction vessel 'CSO Venture' will move to the field to install all the subsea well heads, flowlines, manifolds and control umbilicals.

"While this is happening we will shut the fields in and take the FPSO to Singapore where it will be fitted out with topside gas-handling facilities. This was always going to be the procedure, but now we will install extra processing and compression facilities on board so that we can produce sales gas," he says.

In effect 'Crystal Ocean' will become a floating oil and gas plant. Oil will be sent as before to the storage tanker 'Basker Spirit', but sales gas will be piped directly to shore.

It is at this point in the planning that the result of the takeover bid for Nexus has a bearing.

If the bid is unsuccessful, Anzon and Beach intend to bring the Basker/Manta (and later, Gummy) gas ashore beside the Santos Patricia/Baleen gas plant and connect to the spur line on the outlet side for entry directly into the main Eastern Gas Pipeline near Orbost.

If the bid is successful, then Nexus' Longtom gas field will enter calculations. In this case, two possibilities will arise depending on the results of the Longtom-3 appraisal well which will be drilled by 'Ocean Patriot' as soon as it has finished the current three-well Basker program.

Post mortems on Longtom-2 pointed to mechanical problems as the cause of poor flow rates from the main reservoir. Seismic reprocessing and amplitude variation with offset (AVO) work indicates a strong gas anomaly in these sands as well as an untested anomaly in sands above the primary zone.

Thus, Longtom-3 will be a multi-purpose appraisal seeking confirmation of the lateral extent of the lower reservoir as well as exploration of the anomaly higher in the stratigraphic column.

A good result would be to clarify the independent assessment from Gaffney Cline & Associates for Longtom field of a 2P reserve of 316 billion cubic feet and add a further 250 billion cubic feet, which at the moment is listed as possible in the upper reservoir.

That would trigger Nexus' recent deal with Santos to bring the Longtom gas through the Patricia/Baleen facilities.

If Longtom-3 is less conclusive, a takeover by Anzon could still lead to Longtom development by combining it with the flow from Basker/Manta/Gummy and connecting both to the inlet side of the Santos plant.

A point that needs to be stressed in the whole Anzon versus Nexus takeover debate is that contingent resources and proven producible reserves are not interchangeable terms. Longtom has yet to become a proven commercial field.

It should also be noted that Apache Energy, Nexus' partner in the surrounding Vic/P54 permit, has declined to participate in the Longtom appraisal. Its decision will be tested along with the field when 'Ocean Patriot' spuds the No.3 well in May.

It is clear from Anzon's move on Nexus that it wants to become an explorer as well as a producer. Apart from exposure to other prospects, it would be able to offset its PRRT payments for Basker/Manta production.

An Anzon takeover of Nexus, for instance, would enable the Longtom-3 well to be drilled with 60 cent dollars when the exploration rebate is claimed against PRRT.

Anzon's official bid for Nexus goes on the table on Wednesday this week.

Whether a contrived coincidence or not, it will be given added emphasis as the 'Basker Spirit' storage/offtake tanker enters Port Phillip heads that day bound for Shell's Geelong refinery with the second sales shipment of Basker oil.






the baska manta fields are developing nicely ...I question having an offshore oil and gas processing plant surely there would be a lot of down time in such a venture?!?! It sounds pretty ambitious to me ....of intersest will be the next sale ,with oil at around $64 and the aussie dollar at 70 cents its got to be good

 

[michael_selway]

I dug up some more info ....



Monday, March 27, 2006

ANZON Australia is planning to double the size of its Basker/Manta field development in a move that does not depend on a successful takeover of fellow Bass Strait junior, Nexus Energy. By RICK WILKINSON



The Crystal Ocean FPSO

Buried by the avalanche of publicity surrounding Anzon's takeover bid for Nexus last week is a short paragraph in the Anzon 2006 annual report released on the same day that flags the opportunity to begin commercial gas production from the project early in 2007.

Gas production could be up to 50 million cubic feet per day delivered into the Eastern Gas Pipeline that runs between Victoria and coastal New South Wales.

In his chairman's letter to Anzon shareholders, Steve Koroknay notes that the performance of the Basker-2 well has shown that the field reservoir has a very strong water drive mechanism, so gas re-injection, originally planned as a pressure maintenance measure, would not be required.

In addition, Anzon's reservoir engineers have found that the volume of solution gas within the oil at Basker is much higher than expected.

Chief operating officer, Andrew Young, says the gas-oil ratio (GOR) in the field is close to 1000 cubic feet per barrel.

"When the full field development of three Basker wells and one Manta well comes on stream in September this year at 25,000 barrels a day, we will be producing 25 million cubic feet a day of solution gas alone," Young says.

"That is without tapping the deeper, predominantly gas reservoirs at Manta or touching the nearby Gummy gas field."

In the light of this early Basker reservoir production history, Anzon and its joint venture partner Beach Petroleum are altering their approach to the overall development program.

"The Basker-3 well, originally planned for re-injection of gas produced from Manta into the Basker oil reservoir, will now be made into a dual completion," Young says.

"We will make a completion as planned in the Basker oil zone. But we will also make a second completion in a smaller, separate overlying sand, which contains mostly gas. Until our commercial gas facilities are ready we will reinject gas production into the higher sand and keep the lower zone closed off.

"When we begin commercial gas production, we will close off the upper completion and open the valves in the oil zone so that Basker-3 becomes an extra oil producer and helps maintain the production rate from the field during 2007."

At this point all the Basker solution gas and gas from Manta (including a planned Manta-3 deep gas well) will contribute to the accelerated commercial gas flow, which could be up to 50 million cubic feet a day.

To turn this raw gas into sales gas, Anzon and Beach plan to use the FPSO 'Crystal Ocean' as a processing facility.

Young says once the semi-submersible rig 'Ocean Patriot' has finished drilling the Basker-3, 4 and 5 wells in May, the construction vessel 'CSO Venture' will move to the field to install all the subsea well heads, flowlines, manifolds and control umbilicals.

"While this is happening we will shut the fields in and take the FPSO to Singapore where it will be fitted out with topside gas-handling facilities. This was always going to be the procedure, but now we will install extra processing and compression facilities on board so that we can produce sales gas," he says.

In effect 'Crystal Ocean' will become a floating oil and gas plant. Oil will be sent as before to the storage tanker 'Basker Spirit', but sales gas will be piped directly to shore.

It is at this point in the planning that the result of the takeover bid for Nexus has a bearing.

If the bid is unsuccessful, Anzon and Beach intend to bring the Basker/Manta (and later, Gummy) gas ashore beside the Santos Patricia/Baleen gas plant and connect to the spur line on the outlet side for entry directly into the main Eastern Gas Pipeline near Orbost.

If the bid is successful, then Nexus' Longtom gas field will enter calculations. In this case, two possibilities will arise depending on the results of the Longtom-3 appraisal well which will be drilled by 'Ocean Patriot' as soon as it has finished the current three-well Basker program.

Post mortems on Longtom-2 pointed to mechanical problems as the cause of poor flow rates from the main reservoir. Seismic reprocessing and amplitude variation with offset (AVO) work indicates a strong gas anomaly in these sands as well as an untested anomaly in sands above the primary zone.

Thus, Longtom-3 will be a multi-purpose appraisal seeking confirmation of the lateral extent of the lower reservoir as well as exploration of the anomaly higher in the stratigraphic column.

A good result would be to clarify the independent assessment from Gaffney Cline & Associates for Longtom field of a 2P reserve of 316 billion cubic feet and add a further 250 billion cubic feet, which at the moment is listed as possible in the upper reservoir.

That would trigger Nexus' recent deal with Santos to bring the Longtom gas through the Patricia/Baleen facilities.

If Longtom-3 is less conclusive, a takeover by Anzon could still lead to Longtom development by combining it with the flow from Basker/Manta/Gummy and connecting both to the inlet side of the Santos plant.

A point that needs to be stressed in the whole Anzon versus Nexus takeover debate is that contingent resources and proven producible reserves are not interchangeable terms. Longtom has yet to become a proven commercial field.

It should also be noted that Apache Energy, Nexus' partner in the surrounding Vic/P54 permit, has declined to participate in the Longtom appraisal. Its decision will be tested along with the field when 'Ocean Patriot' spuds the No.3 well in May.

It is clear from Anzon's move on Nexus that it wants to become an explorer as well as a producer. Apart from exposure to other prospects, it would be able to offset its PRRT payments for Basker/Manta production.

An Anzon takeover of Nexus, for instance, would enable the Longtom-3 well to be drilled with 60 cent dollars when the exploration rebate is claimed against PRRT.

Anzon's official bid for Nexus goes on the table on Wednesday this week.

Whether a contrived coincidence or not, it will be given added emphasis as the 'Basker Spirit' storage/offtake tanker enters Port Phillip heads that day bound for Shell's Geelong refinery with the second sales shipment of Basker oil.






the baska manta fields are developing nicely ...I question having an offshore oil and gas processing plant surely there would be a lot of down time in such a venture?!?! It sounds pretty ambitious to me ....of intersest will be the next sale ,with oil at around $64 and the aussie dollar at 70 cents its got to be good

DO u think they will lift their bid for NXS energy?

thx

MS

 

[kgee]

An Anzon-Nexus merger would also have created some synergies for two Bass Strait midcaps that use the same contractor, but Anzon's move on Nexus looks to have already failed.

The Anzon bid came after Nexus rejected preliminary friendly merger approaches. Anzon offered one of its shares for two Nexus shares, valuing Nexus shares at 64c each. But Nexus quickly soared past the offer price and it has stayed above 70c all week. Clearly, if the Anzon offer has caused a reassessment of what several brokers believed were undervalued assets, the takeover bid is dead in the water.

But it may not be the last bid for Nexus.

A source close to the company told EnergyReview.net this week that Nexus was an attractive takeover target.

"Nexus has resisted issuing a lot of paper and has spent time building long-term value potential," he said.

"Three years ago it was worth $3 million, now it's worth over $170 million. That's why it's a good takeover target, as many companies are finding they've only got short-term reserves."

But Anzon managing director Steven Koroknay said Nexus had undertaken 10 share raisings worth a total of $71.5 million in the last three years, whereas Anzon had completed just one raising for $45 million.

For the record, Nexus has more than 266 million shares on issue, while Anzon has just under 130 quoted million shares, plus another 190 million in escrow, making the company worth over $400 million.

However, there is broad agreement that Nexus has strong long-term prospects.

When Nexus' current managing director Ian Tchacos joined the company in 2002, he shifted the then onshore Surat explorer's focus to offshore exploration.

Since then, the company has made good progress and it now has three major assets – Longtom in Gippsland, Crux in the Timor Sea, and Echuca Shoals in the Browse Basin – as well as several Bass Strait exploration prospects and a deal for Longtom gas with Santos that could underwrite its future, provided the Longtom-3 well delivers in the next few months. Nexus now has potential resources up to 100 million barrels of oil equivalent.

In comparison, Anzon has current cash flow but just one asset and its reserves are just 15 million bbl of oil.

But Koroknay told EnergyReview.net that it was not reasonable to compare Nexus' potential resources with Anzon's 2P reserves.

Tchacos told EnergyReview.net that the Anzon offer had clearly undervalued his company and Nexus had stronger growth potential than Anzon.

"Ultimately, we're looking to maximise shareholder value and this bid doesn't do that," he said.

He declined to comment further, but he told the Age this week that being a one-asset company, Anzon was "very, very vulnerable" to any production hiccups at Basker-Manta, its Bass Strait oil development.

However, Koroknay responded that Anzon was more than strong enough to afford a few hiccups at what was a low-risk operation.

"We were profitable after 12 months, which is very unusual," he said.

"We have $50 million in the bank and a bank funding facility, and are capable of funding Nexus's upcoming projects without having to go to shareholders for more money," he said.

"Nexus won't have any cashflow until 2008. They are undertaking a difficult drilling operation at Longtom-3, and they could do with our cash reserves."

Koroknay also disputed Nexus's argument that the Anzon offer was underpriced.

"They have just offered some of their shareholders shares at 47 cents each, so how can they say our offer of 64 cents is unreasonable?" he said.

But Tchacos told The Age that he could "think of lots of other companies I'd rather merge with than these guys."

It would be interesting to know what companies Tchacos has in mind, because rumours are persisting that the Anzon bid will not be the last takeover offer for Nexus.

The obvious candidates are large mid-tier companies with offshore interests. Tap Oil, Beach Petroleum and Australian Worldwide Exploration are all rumoured to be interested parties.

Santos, which is active in Bass Strait and the Timor Sea, is also rumoured to be interested in a takeover, but Bethune was sceptical of this.

"It's hard to see Santos being interested in a hostile takeover of a relatively small midcap, such as Nexus," he said. "It would just require too much of their attention to be worthwhile."

Bethune thought a friendly takeover was possible but unlikely.

"Nexus already has a good relationship with Santos and it has proved very good attracting larger companies as farm-in partners," he said. "Farm-ins would probably be a much more attractive path to growth at this stage of Nexus' development."

Beach Petroleum has a diverse portfolio, including some offshore assets. It is also Anzon's partner in the Basker-Manta project and it's possible that Beach would see some value in helping Anzon make a second bid for Nexus.

Tap Oil's offshore focus would fit well with Nexus' assets. Tap already has some Bass Strait stakes, including a 25% share in Nexus' Galloway prospect and many assets in the Carnarvon Basin. It would not be too much of a stretch to move into Nexus' Browse and Timor Sea blocks.

Like Nexus, AWE has an offshore focus and a good relationship with Santos. Nexus and AWE would be a very good fit.

But with Nexus' share price settling in the mid 70s and likely to rise again as drilling at Longtom looms, the ambitious explorer has probably gained breathing space to escape predators.

All it needs now is success at Longtom-3, which will trigger the Santos gas supply deal and probably a 35% farm-in, bringing plenty of money for developing Crux and Echuca Shoals.

But disappointing results at Longtom-3 would raise difficult questions.

I just wonder in which direction they go if this does fail...others in the Gippsland Basin are BAS,MOG and EBR....I'm unsure as to how complimentary these would be to Anzon .... pure speculating on my part ,does anyone else have thoughts on the matter???

 

[kgee]

Todays announcement on drilling report an extra 20m of hydrocarbon depth was found ...this must be between 30-40 % increase it will be very interesting to see what the actual field reserves are once development is completed

 

[michael_selway]

Todays announcement on drilling report an extra 20m of hydrocarbon depth was found ...this must be between 30-40 % increase it will be very interesting to see what the actual field reserves are once development is completed

Hi thats great news, just wondering was this expected in any way u think?

thx

MS

 

[kgee]

I found this interesting snippet from another forum
"I find the CBA notice to the ASX advising they are now a sustantial shareholder in AZA with 18,020,014 shares or 5.63% very interesting.
They are also a substantial shareholder in the takeover target NXS with 36,679,476 shares or 13.78%.
They purchased 8,659,845 NXS on market 0n the 16th and 20th of March and the takeover offer for NXS was announced by AZA on 20/3.
Whats the chances they were aware of the takeover offer before it was announced mmmmm.
And whats the chances they would sell their 13.78% to AZA...... Highly likely I would Think"
If the takeover was to happen.....

 

[michael_selway]

I found this interesting snippet from another forum
"I find the CBA notice to the ASX advising they are now a sustantial shareholder in AZA with 18,020,014 shares or 5.63% very interesting.
They are also a substantial shareholder in the takeover target NXS with 36,679,476 shares or 13.78%.
They purchased 8,659,845 NXS on market 0n the 16th and 20th of March and the takeover offer for NXS was announced by AZA on 20/3.
Whats the chances they were aware of the takeover offer before it was announced mmmmm.
And whats the chances they would sell their 13.78% to AZA...... Highly likely I would Think"
If the takeover was to happen.....

Is the takeover still on?

thx

MS

 

[kgee]

The offer is on the table....excerpts from Energyreview...
Anzon expects to send the statement to Nexus shareholders in mid-April. The offer would then have a closing date of mid-to-late May but this could easily be extended. The terms of offer could also be changed.

Nexus managing director Ian Tchacos has urged his company's shareholders to make no response to the bid until Nexus releases its target's statement within the next two weeks.

I'm not to sure about what % of shareholders that must agree for the takeover to be successful if its 50% you'd have to think there was a reasonable chance

 

[nioka]

There has not been a posting on this thread for sometime. Seems like it has little interest here. I note that it is listed as a turnaround stock on ninemsn and shown to have a possible 209.3% increase in growth over the next 2 years. Has anyone followed this stock? Any comments?

 

[Go Nuke]

This one caught my eye today actually.

I see the 20 day MA moving up through the 50 day MA and the RSI up over 50 which looks pretty bullish to me.
A break over $1.70 would be good to see.

If you look back through the chart on AZA everytime this has happened its had a good run

Just my learners report on this chart