AXM - Apex Minerals

[4fundamentals]

Thanks for your insight Jmann.

I think the credibility argument is probably pretty sound at the moment,

I don't really agree with what they are doing with Mark Creasy, I would rather have Nickel assets within Apex, than Croesus Mining CRS,

Particulary recieving 67 Million shares.....hmm curious to see how this all pans out.

However, I have always been a long term player. My trading Time line is about 3-6 months.

My thought process on this stock is I thought there was little downside risk (I may be wrong).

I am no where near good enough to make a trade a week.

 

[Agentm]

cash costs came in today..

ASX/MEDIA ANNOUNCEMENT 10 July 2009
Apex hits production target for June quarter
• Wiluna’s steady performance confirmed with production reaching target
of 29,000 ounces in June quarter
• Plant throughput averages an annualised rate of 930,000 tonnes in June
(10% higher than initially forecast) and 880,000 tonnes for the June
quarter (5% higher than initially forecast)
• Cash costs expected to be A$750/oz while production stands at the
current annual rate of 120,000 ounces. Costs expected to fall on the back
of any increase in production.
• First ore drive in Henry 5 North nears completion and second access into
Henry 5 North intersects ore as planned.

this was an article earlier this month on apex


Apex Minerals

Just as one swallow does not make a summer, two months of meeting gold production targets does not make for a sharemarket re-rating.

But for Mark Ashley's Apex Minerals (AXM), summer is at least closer than it was after its Wiluna gold operation in Western Australia hit its annualised production target of 120,000 ounces last month with output of 10,000 ounces.

So that's two months on the scoreboard, a welcome improvement from the March quarter when high-grade feed from underground operations fell short of plan.

The slower than expected ramp up in production prompted a $28 million capital raising - $14 million from a share placement and the rest from an underwritten rights issue.

Modified drilling and blasting techniques have since overcome the March quarter production issues, allowing Wiluna to hit its straps. Not that you would know that from Apex's share price performance. It seems the market is holding back on re-rating the stock until Apex makes public its guidance on costs, expected early next month, and until it has a couple of quarters of steady-state production at the annual rate of 120,000 ounces under its belt.

Those prepared to back Ashley and the rest of the Apex team to get Wiluna humming may be well rewarded. The shares closed flat, at 20c, on Friday.

Goldman Sachs JB Were was one of those saying Apex would need to maintain the 120,000 ounce annualised gold production rate for at least two quarters before the market started to re-rate the stock and "believe its production profile and hence it long-term value".

It values the stock at 52c, but its 12-month price target is 40c, still double the current share price. Intersuisse rates the stock as a speculative buy without setting a price target.

There is now nothing in Apex's share price for its 27 per cent stake (fully diluted) in Croesus Mines, the former Norseman gold producer reworked as a WA nickel explorer with an impressive land bank.

bfitzgerald@theage.com.au




i have been watching this one a while also.. lets hope the market accepts the story is indeed genuine and as barry said, ther is nothing in the sp for croesus

 

[4fundamentals]

Well.

I feel like the HUGEST Idiot . I bought in with $3,000 back when AXM was $0.20.

I valued the stock atleast close to their Net Total Asset per share of $0.24.

Wondering if it is worth holding onto this stock? or to sell out and cut losses?

What is other investors opinions on this stock?.....

IDIOT!

Cheers

 

[Cink]

Well.

I feel like the HUGEST Idiot . I bought in with $3,000 back when AXM was $0.20.

I valued the stock atleast close to their Net Total Asset per share of $0.24.

Wondering if it is worth holding onto this stock? or to sell out and cut losses?

What is other investors opinions on this stock?.....

IDIOT!

Cheers

Managed to get some @ 0.082. IMO, if you don't need the cashflow. hold on to them.

 

[oldblue]

But why would you want to try to catch this particular falling knife?

Don't you find AXM's SP downtrend scarily dangerous?

Plenty of time to buy when the trend reverses, IMO. Will miss the bottom but that may be a small price to pay.

 

[Who Dares Wins]

But why would you want to try to catch this particular falling knife?

Don't you find AXM's SP downtrend scarily dangerous?

Plenty of time to buy when the trend reverses, IMO. Will miss the bottom but that may be a small price to pay.

I like it 3 times as much at 8c as I did at 24c but agree that is one helluva downtrend. I'm watching closely but doing the same as you Oldblue.

Hell, was I lucky! Was so close to buying it in the 20c-24c range.

 

[oldblue]

Here's the latest on AXM.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/5908116/apex-boss-defends-troubled-gold-mine/

May have missed the bottom at 8.1c but I'm happy to wait for a bit more strength in the SP.

 

[Cink]

Here's the latest on AXM.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/5908116/apex-boss-defends-troubled-gold-mine/

May have missed the bottom at 8.1c but I'm happy to wait for a bit more strength in the SP.

Whats your optimal price to buy in if you don't mind sharing ???

I am never able to gauge such stuff.

 

[Sean K]

Whats your optimal price to buy in if you don't mind sharing ???

I am never able to gauge such stuff.

Cink, I think you need to first ask yourself why buy the stock at all.

Why would you want to buy it?

Fundamental long term buy and hold?
Short term trading opportunity?
etc

Then you can drill down into your own buy price.

 

[oldblue]

Whats your optimal price to buy in if you don't mind sharing ???

I am never able to gauge such stuff.

I'd be looking to buy as a medium to long term hold in the expectation (hope?) that they have sorted out their problems. But I'd monitor it pretty hard with a fairly tight stop loss and would be prepared to take a small loss to quit it if necessary.
So it's not really a case of an optimal price to buy in but more that of seeing the downtrend reversed and an uptrend established.

 

[Cink]

I guess i got in @ 0.082 as a short-term trading opp (already set a price which i am willing to sell) but willing to wait for til medium term to see out any results.

 

[seen]

as AXM closed at 10c today, i was curious to know what your sell trigger was set at?

I have just heard some information and tips on AXM and recently got in.. hoping to see some action within the next month.

 

[Who Dares Wins]

as AXM closed at 10c today, i was curious to know what your sell trigger was set at?

I have just heard some information and tips on AXM and recently got in.. hoping to see some action within the next month.

Well why don't you tell us what you heard then maybe others will get in.

I heard things too that made me not get in......not till afterwards anyway.

 

[ands]

as AXM closed at 10c today, i was curious to know what your sell trigger was set at?

I have just heard some information and tips on AXM and recently got in.. hoping to see some action within the next month.

I don't think there would be a much bigger risk than this stock out there atm. 10c won't be cheap if this goes down to 0c. I would be waiting for some good news followed by plenty of upwards movement before jumping into this. Look at MON for an example of gold gone wrong. They are always optimistic till they appoint the administrators.

 

[jman2007]

Guys, there is a very high level of risk involved with this stock imho. the Wiluna field has a history of being a bit of a company breaker, although none have actually been punished with admin through their decision making as far as I know, several have walked away rather battered.

Most of the recent discoveries have been on the small side, and although there are a multitude of existing open pits, it seems unlikely that they could be morphed into a 'Wiluna Superpit' in the future. The Biox process adds a further level of complexity, I'm sure at least one previous operator at Wiluna managed to completely cook the bugs.

 

[Miner]

Guys, there is a very high level of risk involved with this stock imho. the Wiluna field has a history of being a bit of a company breaker, although none have actually been punished with admin through their decision making as far as I know, several have walked away rather battered.

Most of the recent discoveries have been on the small side, and although there are a multitude of existing open pits, it seems unlikely that they could be morphed into a 'Wiluna Superpit' in the future. The Biox process adds a further level of complexity, I'm sure at least one previous operator at Wiluna managed to completely cook the bugs.

Jman 2007- welcome back. I think you have been on the back stage for last few weeks or I missed your postings.

Apex Minerals had a fund raising not very long ago. Mark Ashley is a very capable manager and person. He got support from an able GM Operations Rod P and his team. Total Team is very good.

I have visited the plant recently and my Miner eyes told the operation has good infrastructure but needs more lives and cash. Even the phone at the entry does not work. There is some what gloomy sign throughout the plant. The Wiluna Town is total dead. You would not get even a coffee at 3 PM. The local pub is inhibited by First Australians and I did not dare to stop my car to have a drink. This is probably some shadow effect from the low pit life and minimum investment poured at the town.

Future pit life is not good. I believe unless they go for heavy exploration then the mine life is only two years.

The pit design is however much better than many pits I have seen. So there is huge potential - but they need more money.

It could guess that to support the exploration with higher gold value Apex will be tempted for either more debt or issue of equity. This is my merely superficial guess and more research are required.

Please do your own research and let me know from others about AXM.

I do not hold

 

[Miner]

Jman 2007- welcome back. I think you have been on the back stage for last few weeks or I missed your postings.

Apex Minerals had a fund raising not very long ago. Mark Ashley is a very capable manager and person. He got support from an able GM Operations Rod P and his team. Total Team is very good.

I have visited the plant recently and my Miner eyes told the operation has good infrastructure but needs more lives and cash. Even the phone at the entry does not work. There is some what gloomy sign throughout the plant. The Wiluna Town is total dead. You would not get even a coffee at 3 PM. The local pub is inhibited by First Australians and I did not dare to stop my car to have a drink. This is probably some shadow effect from the low pit life and minimum investment poured at the town.

Future pit life is not good. I believe unless they go for heavy exploration then the mine life is only two years.

The pit design is however much better than many pits I have seen. So there is huge potential - but they need more money.

It could guess that to support the exploration with higher gold value Apex will be tempted for either more debt or issue of equity. This is my merely superficial guess and more research are required.

Please do your own research and let me know from others about AXM.

I do not hold

The above was posted on 19th Sept 09.

Today's market announcement is about massive rights issue. See attached.

I never thought that such a random guess would be true.

I wished if I could randomly picked the right six lotto numbers

 

[jeffTH]

The above was posted on 19th Sept 09.

Today's market announcement is about massive rights issue. See attached.

I never thought that such a random guess would be true.

I wished if I could randomly picked the right six lotto numbers

Hello Miner

I was very pleased to see the above post under AXM in view of the present circumstances. There is much discussion about the heavy dilutory impact of a rights issue of such magnitude and at what price.

My concern is not so much the price or the dilution but if the company gets its $50k and no debt -
(a) Is their aim to get multiple sites feeding the mill a reasonable prospect?
(b) Is the present management up to the task?
(c) Will they have enough money to get to production of 140k oz/year?

These questions are not being asked and as I see you as 'our man on the ground' and this is in your area of expertise, I would value your opinion.

Cheers Jeff

 

[Miner]

Hello Miner

I was very pleased to see the above post under AXM in view of the present circumstances. There is much discussion about the heavy dilutory impact of a rights issue of such magnitude and at what price.

My concern is not so much the price or the dilution but if the company gets its $50k and no debt -
(a) Is their aim to get multiple sites feeding the mill a reasonable prospect?
(b) Is the present management up to the task?
(c) Will they have enough money to get to production of 140k oz/year?

These questions are not being asked and as I see you as 'our man on the ground' and this is in your area of expertise, I would value your opinion.

Cheers Jeff

Dear Jeff

I can reply some of the questions you have raised using my common sense.
Rest assured, I do not have any insider knowledge. But I suppose the business or stock analysts do not know more about mining than an ordinary miner excepting they have the sophisticated software (great weapon) and prepared reports from the CEO when they visit minesites.

Okay straight to the point now:

(a) Is their aim to get multiple sites feeding the mill a reasonable prospect?

At this point I do not think they are going to afford for multiple sites. What they will aim do dig deeper and work along decline. Going to multiple sites is good when you have fund. IMO it will be a luxury for AXM to do so. DYOR.

(b) Is the present management up to the task?

Yes very much so. Honestly they are appeared to be hard working, professional and dedicated. You need a bit of luck to make the site a wonderful mine.

(c) Will they have enough money to get to production of 140k oz/year?

That is the aim to raise fund. The only uncertainity is to strike gold. Big question and only can be speculated that historically Wiluna belt has produced huge gold, the whole area is surrounded by gold, nickel prospects.

So if they go deeper then chances of success will be higher. once again DYOR.

 

[jman2007]

In response to Jeff's questions:

2.7B shares issued at 4c? I think that pretty much sums up where AXM are at right now. Any gains to be made here are offset by the absolutely massive dilutiionary effect. Shareholders have been royally screwed.

This is real backs to the wall stuff, look at their previous track record of tapping the market for funds, it makes for diabolical reading.

Wiluna has claimed another victim.