AX1 - Accent Group

I'll let someone else interpret the FY24 report if interested.
I did a quick calc to meet my low standards and concluded it's trading at fair value after today's 14% drop, based on NPAT dropping by a third.
So lower and I'll be considering an add?
Store numbers still climbing but Cost of Doing Business (CODB) up, including stuff like staff wages, leases and finances. Also noticed that depreciation and amortization up ., huh ., for leased shoe stores?

Held

Market Matters afternoon report:

• Accent Group (AX1) -15.29% fell after reporting lower earnings y/y and a drop in like-for-like sales growth.

Following this announcement, there might be q bit of interest in Accent in what I think may be a falling market this month. My pick and I own.

Accent Group Limited announces today that Frasers Group plc has acquired a 14.65% strategic shareholding in Accent from BBRC International Pte Ltd. UK headquartered Frasers Group, is one of the world’s largest owners and retailers of sports, premium and luxury brands, including Sports Direct, House of Fraser, Flannels, Gieves and Hawkes, Everlast and Slazenger. Frasers Group (FRAS.L) is listed on the London Stock Exchange and in FY24 reported revenue of £5.5 billion and adjusted profit before tax of £544.8 million.
Accent has been engaged in discussions with Frasers Group for some time in relation to a strategic relationship and other opportunities. The Accent Board welcomes Frasers Group to Accent’s share register, and looks forward to working with them. Consistent with these strategic discussions, Accent intends to offer Frasers Group the opportunity to propose a
director to join the Accent Board.
Mr Brett Blundy has indicated that he will be retiring from the Accent Board in due course. The Board wishes to thank Mr Blundy and BBRC International Pte Ltd for their support over the last 7 years.
Daniel Agostinelli, Accent Group CEO, said: “We have been talking to Frasers Group for some time about a strategic relationship, and have been impressed by its management team and believe that there is a strong cultural alignment between both organisations. We see the potential for significant mutual opportunity with Frasers Group, and are excited by the beginning of this new relationship between the organisations.”
Michael Murray, CEO of Frasers Group, said: “This investment is an exciting step in the expansion of our international footprint, which is a key growth driver for the Group. Accent has built an incredible ecosystem of sports and lifestyle brands in Australia and New Zealand. We are looking forward to working with the Accent management team to unlock mutually beneficial opportunities for both groups.”
David Gordon, Accent Group Chairman, said: “I would like to welcome Frasers Group as a shareholder in Accent and look forward to further exploring potential opportunities for our organisations to work together and create value for both companies.”

i hold AX1 ( at no cash risk )

i see the UK as heading into the waste-basket at super-sonic speeds

while the logic outlined here seems rational ,

WHAT IF, Fraser's is a forced seller for some yet unknown reason ( say hit with an outlandish tax-bill )

AX1 so far has come along nicely since the RCG days , but goodness me several economies are travelling in fantasy land

( or, are Fraser's expecting more Brits to jog/walk to work because they can't afford fuel/road taxes and other restrictions on them )

please tread carefully

Recently bought this myself, I think it's good news. but then again, who knows?

maybe but then i bought in about a decade ago

so i am very likely to crystallize a profit if i need to

divs4ever said:

i hold AX1 ( at no cash risk )

i see the UK as heading into the waste-basket at super-sonic speeds

while the logic outlined here seems rational ,

WHAT IF, Fraser's is a forced seller for some yet unknown reason ( say hit with an outlandish tax-bill )

AX1 so far has come along nicely since the RCG days , but goodness me several economies are travelling in fantasy land

( or, are Fraser's expecting more Brits to jog/walk to work because they can't afford fuel/road taxes and other restrictions on them )

please tread carefully

Click to expand...

Least the adults are in charge, will slowly turn.

divs4ever said:

maybe but then i bought in about a decade ago

so i am very likely to crystallize a profit if i need to

Click to expand...

I bought for the franked divs and reckon there'll be some CG. Let's see if it holds up.

Gretsch said:

I bought for the franked divs and reckon there'll be some CG. Let's see if it holds up.

Click to expand...

i bought @ 66 cents in 2014 ( and have rescued that cash since )

have been very happy with it so far , but i think tough times are coming , who knows what lies ahead for this company ( do they take-over a distressed Frasers in say two years , or a merger or do Frasers grab AX1 to diversify out of the UK )

divs4ever said:

i bought @ 66 cents in 2014 ( and have rescued that cash since )

have been very happy with it so far , but i think tough times are coming , who knows what lies ahead for this company ( do they take-over a distressed Frasers in say two years , or a merger or do Frasers grab AX1 to diversify out of the UK )

Click to expand...

I bought for about 59c, then also, sold out in two tranches at 1.01 and $1.38 in 2018. Bought back in at $1.44 in 2022.

divs4ever said:

but i think tough times are coming

Click to expand...

That seems to be the drift

Held
Holding

From Market Matters afternoon report:

• Accent Group (AX1) -11.07% was hit after showing a deterioration in margins as consumers increasingly target promotions

My pick for the month.
Looking at its history, the company normally makes a trading anouncement late January.
I think that it might be doing quite well and hope this announcement leads to a rise is SP.

H1 Trading UpdateTrading Update

Accent Group Limited (Accent, the Company or Group) advises that it expects Group EBIT1 for H1 FY25 to be around $80 million.
The EBIT range includes a positive net impact of $3.3million2 relating to non-recurring items.
Total Group owned sales (including wholesale sales) for H1 were up 4.6%.
Like for Like3 retail sales were up 2.9%.
Like for Like retail sales for weeks 21-26 following the AGM update, were up 1.8%.
H1 Trading gross margin is down 100 basis points to the prior year, impacted by the ongoing promotional trading environment.
Group CEO, Daniel Agostinelli said “Sales for the final 6 weeks of H1 including Cyber weekend, whilst growing on the prior year, slowed compared to the previous 20 weeks with customers responding to value offers in the market.
The promotional environment continued to impact Gross Margin % through this period.
Both costs and inventory were well controlled with overall inventory aging clean and levels inline with plan.

”Update on strategic discussions with Frasers
The company remains in active discussions with Frasers Group, with progress made on the documentation of a long-term strategic agreement. We expect to conclude negotiations during the second half of FY25.

i hold AX1 ( 'free-carried' )

probably a true reflection of the consumer discretionary sector