tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
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The expectancy comes out of one of the Stator stats pages...its an all time stat where the table above is this FY, i imagine my expectancy on closed trades for this FY would be a bit higher....just had a look and its $2.48
And i though it had been a bad year. :dunno:
Exactly
So what's right or are we just posting up stuff for effect.
Statistics: 82 Closed Trades since July 07, Winning Trades: 68, Losing Trades: 13, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.67
LOL here's another one for ya...this one is closed trades this financial year.
Seriously i had no idea it looked this good...i dont click the closed trades tab to much.
I forgot to point out that the table in my above post is open trades all time...everything i have open, some big positions but most small as some profit has been taken on most of them so i can recycle my capital.
~
So_Cynical are you thinking there will come a time where this strategy will start to turn negative?
Cynical,
Thank you for sharing your results, as impressive as they may be, I
wonder if you would do me a favour.
Of the trades you listed in the above post.
If you averaged down any of those results, would you please calc the difference if you had
a) Sold the original position at say 5% loss instead of holding
b) Re-invested the full amount of proceeds from the first sale at the lower price, along with the subsequent second purchase (the average down ).
This should have you holding a greater number and at a lower average than you achieved by averaging down, and would show exponentially greater profits than were achieved.
I would be grateful if you could show the difference in the results here or I could compile if you prefer.
Thanks in advance.
LOL here's another one for ya...this one is closed trades this financial year.
Seriously i had no idea it looked this good...i dont click the closed trades tab to much.
I forgot to point out that the table in my above post is open trades all time...everything i have open, some big positions but most small as some profit has been taken on most of them so i can recycle my capital.
~
These percentages look pretty fantastic.
You said many times you like to recycle capital and establish free carry. And many examples you've provided show you establish your free carry at much smaller % profits.
Would I be correct in saying that the percentages represent the free carry portion?
E.g. Inital buy 10,000 units @ $1. Sold 9,000 @ $1.1. Remaining 1000 sold at $3.00.
Does the percentage in your table refers to +200% for the last sale, or ~30% for the average sale price?
This year has been a bad year even if the results don't really show it..yoy i turned 2 or 3 times as many trades last year compared to this year...im stuck in 7 trades that have tied up a lot of capital but 5 of them are coming good now, close to break even or in small profit.
The system is working....and achieved a significant $ amount long term milestone on Friday so all 100% on long term target.
Ok i know what your getting at and hard to argue against that...IF all my actions were done over and i had taken a 5% loss on my first parcel on all the trades that went against me id probably be 10 or 15% better off...maybe more.
And if i had planned my entry's better by staging my entry's (smaller first parcel) id be way ahead to...If i had held my IIN trade for just another 3 weeks i could of get 10% more.
And if i had sold my biggest loser (APN) at the bottom (Aug-Sept) and split that money between my 3 next biggest losers id be way ahead too..
And there's a 100 other what ifs...i call it as i see it, its a broad strategy that works and im very conscious of keeping it working, not being perfect...though of late ive been thinking that some sort a software alert system could help me be more disciplined.
After-all everything can be improved hey.
...
Even if you decide not to post the result, I urge you to calculate the different result for your own benefit in future.
Cynical,
Thank you for sharing your results, as impressive as they may be, I
wonder if you would do me a favour.
Of the trades you listed in the above post.
If you averaged down any of those results, would you please calc the difference if you had
a) Sold the original position at say 5% loss instead of holding
b) Re-invested the full amount of proceeds from the first sale at the lower price, along with the subsequent second purchase (the average down ).
This should have you holding a greater number and at a lower average than you achieved by averaging down, and would show exponentially greater profits than were achieved.
I would be grateful if you could show the difference in the results here or I could compile if you prefer.
Thanks in advance.
This exercise will only produce skewed results.
As So_C only averages down when the share price has fallen, the sample size will only include all stocks that offer him more attractive entry price down the track. You do that sum then of course he'd be better off.
What it won't capture is any share that he may have sold out (say for a 5% loss) but never quite fall further to trigger this theoretical re-entry. If the stock took off after his sale, then he's worse off.
So to assess the benefits or otherwise of your suggested strategy, he needs to do that for ALL his positions, not just the ones which he averaged down.
I found averaging down to be slower, more deliberate, less stressful.
Agree absolutely.T
Worse outcome is I pay a round trip brokerage and end up owning it again at a slightly higher price than if I had held on, however the method has potential to give a far superior profit that to average down
The absolute best part, it safeguards my capital from a prolonged trend against me, and usually allows me to concentrate on other opportunities instead of stressing over increasing losses
Totally fair comment
...
This exercise will only produce skewed results.
As So_C only averages down when the share price has fallen, the sample size will only include all stocks that offer him more attractive entry price down the track. You do that sum then of course he'd be better off.
What it won't capture is any share that he may have sold out (say for a 5% loss) but never quite fall further to trigger this theoretical re-entry. If the stock took off after his sale, then he's worse off.
So to assess the benefits or otherwise of your suggested strategy, he needs to do that for ALL his positions, not just the ones which he averaged down.
... burglar
Everyone is different, I find the longer I remain on the wrong side of a trade, the more stressful it gets. ...
I owned an LH Torana with a 4 speed Aussie gearbox .... I rarely mist a gear.
It was retired at age 22 years due to rusted out quarter panels.
I hope this helps!
I can afford to lose all of my bet. If I couldn't afford it, I wouldn't bet it.
I write it off completely at the moment I place a buy order.
Everyone is different, I bought mine in 1979 just after it had won the Aust Touring Car Championship, I have often missed gears (My Nic" is fact not fiction)
It is not retired, continues to run in Historic races and has no rust in any panels.
Unlike my trades, each time I race am forced to risk losing all of my car, it may be written off completely.
Fortunately I can plan limited risk when I trade.
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