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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

If CAP raising goes to the institutions or whatever at say.. $1.60 should we expect the SP to drop around that level? yes or no and why? I guess the normal a month of stagnant and lower SP levels and then a surge.. what do you guys think?

the gravity of this announcment is huge. It equates to a 37% increase in the net worth of the company using either an acerage or reserves estimate, and using cash flow models a 25% increase by end of 2011. So it is a massive price catalyst.

Is there dilution, well yes and no.

Its dilutive in the sense there are more shares and yes they will get a discount. But in reality without offering the CR the additional value would not have happened.

So imo there is a 13% dilution for an approx 37% net gain in value.

I certainly hope the offer price i s a lot higher then $1.60, as last time we where massively over subscribed and on the back of this announcement imo even at 175 i think we would be 50% oversubscribed.

I for one would be enormously angry if its too cheap. And have written to Jon stewart expressing such an opinion.

I cant see it being able to pull back much or for long, with the massive value that just got unlocked.
 
I've been in AUT since early and the past CR's has seen a retrace nearly back to the CR price before moving on strongly.

A couple of things have happened since, that could change it this time.
* We are now a Top 200 stock which opens us up to a wider and stronger clientele. I bet some of those big Insto's would have loved AUT's Friday news.
* Aut has gone from explorer to a rather good producer with a strong balance sheet and business program. Very derisked IMO.

These things just might have a bearing on how this CR travels in the market.IMO

Personally, I am so over balanced with aut but are currently organising myself to top up pre- Christmas.

Currently holding AUT, SEA, EKA, MHM, XAM
 
Personally, I am so over balanced with aut but are currently organising myself to top up pre- Christmas.

Hi i think anyone who has done thier research and realised that selling winners is bad will be well over weight in AUt...

Also for anyone craving infoo the other place...hc.... has a lot of discussion on this at present.
 
AUT is in a trading halt this morning pending an announcement regarding the CR that it foreshadowed last Friday. This will give the market some time to digest the impact its proposed acquisitions in the Sugarkane will have on the future. I am a very very happy holder
 
Nice new euroz evaluation update

4 Price Target: $3.38/sh

loveess it.


needs another new entry point.. dont think it will drop much lower with this new raising.. or it will be pretty premature and quick upwards..


The deal expands AUT’s existing WI in the Sugarkane Field, Texas:

4 Sugarloaf AMI to 15.7% (prev. 10%);
4 Longhorn AMI to 31.9% (prev. 25%);
4 Ipanema AMI to 36.4% (prev. 30%).

The acquisition will also result in a 9.1% participating interest in the adjacent Excelsior AMI.
 
Well Auroz are saying $2.97 to $3.38 in 6 months imo.

My forward cash flow projections, that gave me a Dec 2010 value of $1.59, give me a $4+ valuation for Dec 2010 prior to the extra NRI and 20 wells.
 
I noticed that too. I assume it's a typo for 2011. $4 in the next two weeks would be lovely, but I don't have my hopes up. $4 in one year seems fairly realistic.
 
Condog - question of fact. Is that sp valuation for Dec 2011? I'd love it if it was Dec 2010.

Yeh sorry 2011

Amazing valuation put out by Euroz, should really kick things along after the inevitable profit takers.
 
A quick google search of "Euroz" gives me this as the first result.

http://www.euroz.com.au/

I loled, and obviously just google Baker Steel for their site, I've been to it but they don't reveal too much on it. Secretive lot those lads, but I know they are very very long on gold/gold producers.

PVF.
 
Nah just like to get a lot of ideas then pick one that seems to most thought out and logical.... obviously I value condogs thoughts as he has been pretty much spot on so far.... Comsec has an indicative price of $1.865 at the moment if that helps anyone... and as for google... I tried that and it didn't come up at all. weird.... thanks anyways!
 
Hey Condog,

Your evaluations for AUT sound very well researched. Just wondered if you had the time to give us an evaluation on Sundance Energy?

Thanks ;-)
 
I hold SEA too... maybe better to private message condog to get him to post over there....

Well no news yet on the CR news from AUT and market is now suspended. Will we get an announcement today or after trading hours??
 
Magic Man: To private message an ASF member click on their name and select the "Send a private message to (user name)" option.

A reminder to all that all padded out posts will be removed. If you can't think of 75 characters of meaningful content to contribute to the thread then please refrain from posting until you can.
 
CR raising is at $1.60 ... mmm if only it was higher... this is the announcement..


 
from the new presentation material pdf.. so we know longhorn, ipanema, sugarloaf, and now excelsior.. but the orange area below excelsior?? is this part of hilcorps area? who owns them acerages and will they be on the cards in future? reason i am asking, is around sugarloaf longhorn etc there is no colour.. but now a mysterious one in orange..

good news on the c/r tho it was pointed out a few days ago so no surprise!

cant wait to be back trading to see where this goes.
 

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SP is now up 14 odd cents. great news, people are liking this Heavy buying and very limited selling, hopefully we don't see many profit takers... holding up so far
 
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