AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

The date of the change up is the end of business 17th December... so maybe Monday 20th will have a few cents rise? Hopefully I think its a safe bet it will rise even if it is factored in.

IIRC, you can subscribe to the institutions/indexs version of ASX index rebalances for some ridiculously big figure, it gives you the names of the companies that are being exchanged out a week or so before it's released into the public domain. Not too sure about this as it's dredged up from my memory, I'll have to double check, but from this I'd expect the index re balances to be mostly done by now, if the public knows, the institutes probably knew yesterday .

Nice news release this morning.

SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS AND PRODUCTION UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations and
production at the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas &
Condensate Field, Texas.
Sugarloaf AMI (AUT 10% Working Interest)

May #1H (10% WI)
The May #1H well has been on production for a period of 30 days and Aurora is pleased to provide
the market with an update on the produced volumes during that period: 760 boep/d

• The equivalent rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a
25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.

This well continues to be produced on a small choke setting with limited tubing head pressure
pressure and production declines being observed.

Kowalik #1R (11.65% WI)
The remedial operations have been successfully completed on this well and it will now be unloaded
to sales. Aurora will provide an update to the market when stabilised flow has been achieved.

Urrutia #1H (10% WI)
The fracture stimulation operations on this well are complete with 19 stages having been pumped
over approximately 4,400 ft of horizontal section. Isolation plugs are now being removed and
Aurora will advise the market when stabilised flow has been achieved.

Direct Assets #1H (10% WI)
The fracture stimulation of this well is underway, Aurora will provide an update to the market when
these operations are complete and the well is producing to sales.

Gilley #1H (10% WI)
Drilling operations in the horizontal section are presently underway with the well at a depth of
15,500 ft, Aurora will advise the market when they are complete.

50% reserves upgrade.. and Moar. check the announcement


Holy Shi.....


and here i was thinking the pull back today was nice for my reentry back into proper shares..

I agree this is spectaculor, makes me wonder if someone knew this week???

There was huge action and imo this is why.

EAGLE FORD SHALE ACQUISITION AND CAPITAL RAISINGAurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX: AUT) (“Aurora”) is pleased to advise that is has agreed to
acquire additional working interests across the three Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI’s) in
which it currently participates (Longhorn, Ipanema and Sugarloaf) and a fourth adjacent
area known as Excelsior (Acquisition) for US$120 million cash. All four AMI’s are located
within the Sugarkane field, onshore United States, in the liquids rich area of the Eagle Ford
shale trend.
The Acquisition is highly accretive on a reserves and net present value basis, with Aurora’s
net 3P reserves increasing 50% to 84 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Euroz Securities Limited, TD Securities Inc., and GMP Securities LP have been appointed
by Aurora to assist with funding the Acquisition.
Key aspects of the transaction are as follows:
● Acquisition of 3/16ths of an existing joint venture partner’s working interest in three
Sugarkane field AMIs which Aurora already participates in, plus exposure to an
additional AMI, being Excelsior
● Aurora acquires an additional 5,100 net acres, increasing its total Sugarkane field
net acreage by approximately 50% to over 15,600 acres● Aurora acquires estimated additional net 3P reserves of 28 mmboe, increasing
Aurora’s net 3P reserves by 50% to 84 mmboe
● The acreage to be acquired is all located within the “sweet spot” of the Eagle Ford
Shale trend
● All additional acreage operated by Hilcorp Energy Inc● The acquisition involves additional acreage within the Company’s existing area of
focus and represents a low risk acquisition of acres under development
● The enlarged reserves position offers significant growth potential with the same
potential reserves upside identified by Aurora in its existing interests
● Aurora will now participate in approximately 60 new wells during calendar year 2011
for a total of approximately 80 wells across the 4 AMI’s by the end of 2011● Settlement of the acquisition is scheduled to occur before year end

The Acquisition has an effective date of 1 December 2010, with the vendor retaining rights
to post effective date production from its interest in 22 existing producing wells. The
Acquisition is scheduled to close before the end of this calendar year. The Acquisition is
unconditional as to the purchase of 2/16ths of the vendors interest. Aurora has the option
to acquire the remaining 1/16th interest and intends to exercise this option and settle on the
whole transaction before year end.
The Acquisition and future development drilling costs are expected to be funded from
existing cash reserves and an equity placement of new ordinary shares and special
warrants. Following the completion of the offering, the Company intends to file a
prospectus in Canada qualifying the distribution of the ordinary shares issuable upon the
exercise of the special warrants.Further details of the Acquisition and associated equity funding will be provided upon
finalization of the private placement arrangements.


This is massive

A mere $120M for a 50% increase in reserves, right in the sweet spot. Its 24000 per acre but imo worth it.

975M to $1.5B / (340000000+$120M at Cr Price of say $1.60)

= $1.5B / 340750000
= approx $2.86 to $4.40 valuation imo. Note could be wrong so DYOR and seek advice

Brilliant stuff by management on this acquisition, I give a more detailed post of my thoughts on my blog (wrote it up and was going to chuck a delicious link on here, but you beat me too it Condog!). Brilliant that management are sticking to the AMI's and projects that they know and love, instead of diworsifying into other ones.

URL to the individual post about this AUT announcement is below:

http://parlevoufrancoistrades.blogspot.com/2010/12/after-hours-news-aut-with-aquisition.html

I'm hoping for a $1.60-$1.70 priced CR Con, but I'm thinking that realistically we'll get $1.40 to $1.50 in the CR (but as always, happy to be proven wrong aye.)

A question though, has your valuation per share gone up or down from this transaction Condog? .

PVF.

When are we likely to find out about the CR? I bought back in on the 6th Dec... do you think I'll be able to participate??

Ahhh yes but who have the bought out. Have they bought a combination from Hilcorp, TCIE, EKA, AWE or what. I need to get on TRRC and see who owns Excelsior.

Anyway its all good for AUt.

If we retain relative valuations for acerage / and or reserves we can hopefully expect some considerable gains in the near future imo.

Longhorn 1200 odd acres

Ipanema 175 odd acres

Sugarloaf 925 odd acres

Excelsior 2,750 odd acres

To my knowledge we already had money raised for acerage, approx $50M hence we need another $70M

70M at $1.60 = 43.75M shares

43.75 / 340M = 13% dilution

50% gain - 13% dilution = net gain of approx 37%

37% * 1.80 = $2.46 approx immediate relative value imo



Using my forward cash flow model unrisked i get $6.32 for end of 2011
Applying a 15% risk i get $5.37

Excelsior lies to the NW of sugarkane and Longhorn

see: http://www.bourseinvestor.com/bi4/pdfnews/default.asp?d=01005935&f=20091030


I think Hilcorp and TCIE own the excelsior section. Which makes me think AUt have purchased part of hilcorps interest on the other 3 leases.

From AUT web site
Note the Sugarkane and Excelsior AMIs are also within the Sugarkane Field however Aurora does not have an interest in these project areas.


http://www.epicuregroup.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp

Sdajii said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but AUT has now hit new all time highs every day for five trading days in a row! What a run! Actually, looking at more than a year of their history now just looks like one big run! I only wish I'd got in sooner

Thanks for the posts several members have put up, perhaps most notably Condog, and even more so, my friend who put me on to ADI/EKA/AUT in the first place. I read and watch with excitement pretty much every day. I was sad to have still been unable to afford to buy a house at 30 years of age. A few months ago it looked like AUT might help me get a house deposit together... it has done that and then some. I'm now wondering if it might even end up covering most of a mortgage if necessary, although I expect to be wanting to find another way to pay so I can hold on for longer!

I think I posted bananas at about $1.30.... probably due for more!

:bananasmi :bananasmi :bananasmi:bananasmi :bananasmi :bananasmi:bananasmi :bananasmi

More bananas some time after $2

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Great result, so happy for you and congratulations, love a good news story, you like me must be jumping through hoops just now

Mister Mark said:

Great result, so happy for you and congratulations, love a good news story, you like me must be jumping through hoops just now

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Haha, jumping through hoops trying to get some money together to take advantage of the capital raising? I actually expected that we'd have positive cash flow and no more capital raisings, and my holding in AUT is fairly large (huge by my standards) so I was content not to buy more from here. Perhaps I'll sell something to take part.

But overall, yeah, I'm very excited about it all I saw someone else with a similar story to mine thanks to AUT. It's nice to see people doing well out of it I expect it will be an interesting series of developments over the next few weeks and months with this news, and it'll be interesting to see how the projections are changed. I am pretty bullish on oil, so I expect (rightly or wrongly) that in the long term this will turn out to be an excellent move.

Sdajii said:

Haha, jumping through hoops trying to get some money together to take advantage of the capital raising? I actually expected that we'd have positive cash flow and no more capital raisings, and my holding in AUT is fairly large (huge by my standards) so I was content not to buy more from here. Perhaps I'll sell something to take part.

But overall, yeah, I'm very excited about it all I saw someone else with a similar story to mine thanks to AUT. It's nice to see people doing well out of it I expect it will be an interesting series of developments over the next few weeks and months with this news, and it'll be interesting to see how the projections are changed. I am pretty bullish on oil, so I expect (rightly or wrongly) that in the long term this will turn out to be an excellent move.

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Do we know if we will be part of the cap raising, there has been one in the last 12 months so without a vote we cannot is my understanding.

To CONDOG, your regular posts and input has been unbelievable, we that hold large or small parcells have done our own research, but without your help many of us would not be where we are, so i say thank you:xmaswave:xmaswave

Mister Mark said:

Do we know if we will be part of the cap raising, there has been one in the last 12 months so without a vote we cannot is my understanding.

To CONDOG, your regular posts and input has been unbelievable, we that hold large or small parcells have done our own research, but without your help many of us would not be where we are, so i say thank you:xmaswave:xmaswave

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Well, they're raising capital one way or another. Either we get to buy them after a vote, or the sophies get them and we get to buy at the same price or close to it due to profit taking etc.

Sdajii said:

Well, they're raising capital one way or another. Either we get to buy them after a vote, or the sophies get them and we get to buy at the same price or close to it due to profit taking etc.

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Old saying but its WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN must meet the minium so WIN WIN WIN WIN

Hi Guys,

I'm fairly new to shares and I have a small parcel in AUT, with the CR do I get the chance to buy more before it goes to the market?
When does all this happen and how do I do this if I want to?
This is the first time I have had shares where they are doing CR so I don't fully understand the whole process.
Thanks in advance for you help.
I'd also like to say thanks to all the people who post in this Thread, a very informative one.

Cheers Wes

If its a CR no its only offered to instos and sophisticated investors. They mention warrants in Canada, which again would not be generally offered to shareholders.

The effective date was pretty soon again indicating its not going to be an SPP to current shareholders.

Thanks for that condog.
Certainly looks very positive for the future. Bring on 2011

This thread has always been amazing.

I get on the phone to ring my brokers/advisers and while waiting, I log on here and learn more and get kept far more up to date.
I reckon some advisers are using these threads for information.
Thanks to everyone, whish I could contribute something of substance.

If CAP raising goes to the institutions or whatever at say.. $1.60 should we expect the SP to drop around that level? yes or no and why? I guess the normal a month of stagnant and lower SP levels and then a surge.. what do you guys think?