AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Kremmen · 28 October 2010

Audio of Executive Chairman, Jon Stewart talking about the company:
http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/Display.aspx?Site=FNN55

(Gotta say it's pathetic that companies are putting out announcements in PDF format which are set up to disallow copy/paste and with instruction to "please copy this link into your browser". Yeah, typing some huge long string is so much easier than just clicking, right?!!)

BrightGreenGlow · 1 November 2010

AUT seems to be trending downwards... any thoughts on when there might be a bit of an upward trend? Also, when is the next report?

Sdajii · 1 November 2010

BrightGreenGlow said:
AUT seems to be trending downwards... any thoughts on when there might be a bit of an upward trend? Also, when is the next report?

It is bouncing around in the vicinity of the $1.25 capital raising figure. It probably won't hit it, so I'd say it's unlikely to go lower than where it is currently.

The upwards trend will start a few hours or maybe a day or two before you say "Oh! I should have been buying!" or perhaps even "I was watching them and I KNEW I should have bought some/more!"

The updates usually come every week or two, so probably a week or two after the most recent one.

Assasin · 1 November 2010

BrightGreenGlow said:
AUT seems to be trending downwards... any thoughts on when there might be a bit of an upward trend? Also, when is the next report?

My take on this is that there's still some fun and games happening due to the CP. In the June/July CP the SP stagnated in between 75c-85c for 6 weeks before jumping. We are still only 2 weeks since the last trading halt.

However, if you take into account what we've learnt about what the management have in mind and the value that has been added to AUT as has been well reported on this thread by others, then positive results on the SP shouldn't be far away.
My opinion only.
Would love to here from the more experienced also.

nioka · 1 November 2010

Assasin said:
My take on this is that there's still some fun and games happening due to the CP. In the June/July CP the SP stagnated in between 75c-85c for 6 weeks before jumping. We are still only 2 weeks since the last trading halt.

However, if you take into account what we've learnt about what the management have in mind and the value that has been added to AUT as has been well reported on this thread by others, then positive results on the SP shouldn't be far away.
My opinion only.
Would love to here from the more experienced also.

When a company issues a large number of shares to the "sophisticated" at a discount then those shares will be sold on again to the "faithfull" ( Faithfull being the loyal shareholders thatshould have had the opportunity to buy them in the fisrt place). They made commission to take up the offer so they do not have to sell on at too much of a premium to make great profits. When these share are absorbed bu real investors then the climb back to realistic value will begin.

ParleVouFrancois · 1 November 2010

Big overhang clearing today and probably for the rest of the week as the freshly issued shares find there way from "sophisticated" short term traders to longer termer holders.

Imo it'll take about 2 weeks before we see any sort of upside from here, but I'd be willing to wait. With the conclusion of this capital raising, AUT's management mentioned that this is the final capital raising for funding their share of costs in their Eagle Ford Shale tenements. This means if all goes to plan there will be no further dilution in order to get there many hundreds of planned wells online. Although it's decreased the price in the short term, and it looks bad (I should know, bought in at 1.34 a few days ago), the longer term picture is very positive.

condog · 1 November 2010

Simply put its a good buying / top up opportunity in my opinion.

Has anything fundamentally changed for the worse? No imo.

nunthewiser · 1 November 2010

condog said:
Has anything fundamentally changed for the worse? No imo.

Yes,

stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.

Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.

J&M · 1 November 2010

nunthewiser said:
Yes,

stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.

Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.

You raise a good point Nun
I sold a few of these for a good profit
nice to have another point of view

Cheers
James

condog · 1 November 2010

Weve been down this path before when many falsly claimed the dilution at 75c was a killer. Within about 6 weeks its was al forgotten and we where up 40$. Why? Because managment where smart and deployed the cash into an advanced drilling program which actually added value to the coy.

Dilution only occurs when the capital is spent with a lesser value added to the balance sheet. It didnt happen last time and it wont happen this time imo. These guys are switched on in how to add value, they have proven it over the past 12 months against all sorts of bickering on this thread.

They are mopping up cheap acerage / reserves and accellerating drilling, both of which will imo have good upside pressure as soon as the usuall post CR selling wheres thin.

At max thier is a 9% dilution/ Thats only if they totally failed to deploy the capital in an acquisitive manner. Which they have proven last time they know exaclty how ot. And with cheap surrounding acerage ripe for the picking, this time it will imo be even better.

anyone with any doubts it might pay to go back and have a read of around pages 31-40 of this thread.

Assasin · 1 November 2010

J&M said:
You raise a good point Nun
I sold a few of these for a good profit
nice to have another point of view

Cheers
James

Just curious James, just what did you think was a good point?

I believe all successful small cap stocks need to go through what Nun was mentioning. Like building pyramids, the broader the base, the higher the peaks. IMO

Keep posting.

AngusSmart · 1 November 2010

Well i got out at 1.40 and am looking for a re-entry..

My buys currently in low.. but am waiting on another share to kick up a little so i can double my original holding..

cant wait to be back in on Aut. i see i have about 2-4 weeks at these prices..

J&M · 1 November 2010

Assasin said:
Just curious James, just what did you think was a good point?

I believe all successful small cap stocks need to go through what Nun was mentioning. Like building pyramids, the broader the base, the higher the peaks. IMO

Keep posting.

You have already made the point yourself
Nun made the point that the shares have now gone down due to the cap raising . It may take a while for the price to recover or they may drop further before a recovery. But I think that you already know this
As noted by other posters we the small shareholders get Zero from the Cap raising
So I have sold a few to put an order in another stock at low price

James

Sdajii · 1 November 2010

nunthewiser said:
Yes,

stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.

Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.

Of course, you're only pointing out the negative facts. The other side is that the money has been used to purchase extra land, which means we'll be able to drill more wells and get more oil. It's not just like we've been diluted with no benefit. If we get good value for the money we're spending which has just been raised, our situation has improved due to the capital raising, which means each share is now worth more than it was rather than less. You seem to love putting negative bias on AUT. Sure, positive bias is just as bad, but why are you so biased? Have a go at being objective with AUT.

nunthewiser · 1 November 2010

Sdajii said:
Of course, you're only pointing out the negative facts. The other side is that the money has been used to purchase extra land, which means we'll be able to drill more wells and get more oil. It's not just like we've been diluted with no benefit. If we get good value for the money we're spending which has just been raised, our situation has improved due to the capital raising, which means each share is now worth more than it was rather than less. You seem to love putting negative bias on AUT. Sure, positive bias is just as bad, but why are you so biased? Have a go at being objective with AUT.

Yes,

stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.

Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.

Geezus i just supplied facts.
i couldnt care less about AUT other than its a regular trading stock.

Grow up i merely pointed out the bleeding obvious

LOL you guys are funny when someone puts an unbiased FACTUAL statement on here thats not drooling over this midcap plaything that seems to have turned into a love affair for some here

Assasin · 1 November 2010

J&M said:
You have already made the point yourself
Nun made the point that the shares have now gone down due to the cap raising . It may take a while for the price to recover or they may drop further before a recovery. But I think that you already know this
As noted by other posters we the small shareholders get Zero from the Cap raising
So I have sold a few to put an order in another stock at low price

James

See what you mean James,
Hope you bought back in today when the sp hit the cr price. So really the small shareholders didn't miss out on anything but rather had an opportunity to do exactly what you did and pick up a few dollars. Wish I did. Next time.
Oh I wish I had more money.
As I've posted before, just need to stick these in a drawer for a while and let management do their stuff.
Keep posting.

nioka · 1 November 2010

The difference between the last capital raising and this one is that the first one was offered to shareholders that, in the main, bought and held. This time it went to the "sophisticated" that buy at a discount to the issue price (commission?) then sell for profit, this floods the market. They have no interest in whether or not the money will be used to drill wells or buy new territory. They are not thinking long term. Their thinking "small short term profit equals large annual percentage profit".

Sdajii · 1 November 2010

nioka said:
The difference between the last capital raising and this one is that the first one was offered to shareholders that, in the main, bought and held. This time it went to the "sophisticated" that buy at a discount to the issue price (commission?) then sell for profit, this floods the market. They have no interest in whether or not the money will be used to drill wells or buy new territory. They are not thinking long term. Their thinking "small short term profit equals large annual percentage profit".

I agree, but hopefully a fair few of them will be purchased by people like me. I bought in at $1.275 soon after the announcement (and might top up further if I can scrounge up enough money in time), and mine will be firmly held.

nunthewiser · 1 November 2010

nioka said:
The difference between the last capital raising and this one is that the first one was offered to shareholders that, in the main, bought and held. This time it went to the "sophisticated" that buy at a discount to the issue price (commission?) then sell for profit, this floods the market. They have no interest in whether or not the money will be used to drill wells or buy new territory. They are not thinking long term. Their thinking "small short term profit equals large annual percentage profit".

Fair post Nioka

I doubt you will get a tirade of emotionally charged angry posts at you tho

condog · 1 November 2010

Lets grow up the fact is its a bllody good stock, with bloody good managment, that has made a lot of people in here a lot of bloody money. And theres nothing substantially that has changed to think it wont continue at present.

We saw all this **** last time there was a CR and it proved the dommsayers incredibly wrong. If they want to make fools of themselves twice let them.

One only has to llok at the early commentry on this stock and the sp growth of this and SEA and the proof is in the pudding. If you think thats overly positive then more fool you.

Has anything changed fundamentally that makes the stock worse then last week or the week before???

Perhaps they prefer no advanced drillinjg program, no opportunistic acerage acquisition at discount rates. ???? I truly wonder about the motives and intellect of some people???
No , some may argue dilution, but that shows no understanding of the strategic direction or stratecig history of the stock.

Those that stood firm and held last time during the post CR avolanche of crap on this thread where duly rewarded.

You want fact thos thing has gone from 22c to 1.48 inside 12 months for bloody good reason. On the back of a well funded, solid growth plan with world classs acerage and a world class operator. And its just done a Cr to ensure solid growth for the next 12 months ...

Thats the facts, anything else is pure noise.....

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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