AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

basilio · 16 August 2010

The open looks to be stacking up nicely for a new high. One tree shaker for each side but the buys look genuine to 1.12 and the sells up from 1.06

Indicative open 1.10... Coondog

You don't want to stake your life on preopening bids do you? I think we have all been burned in these markets . Amazing how quickly bids can be retracted or changed in very short time. AUT now 1.02.

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It does look like a great buy though ..

condog · 16 August 2010

basilio said:
You don't want to stake your life on preopening bids do you? I think we have all been burned in these markets . Amazing how quickly bids can be retracted or changed in very short time. AUT now 1.02.

__________________________________________

It does look like a great buy though ..

I think i have enough profit in this one since 25c to be a looooooong way of being burned on pre-open tree shakers.

condog · 16 August 2010

I cant be certain, but there appears to be a lot of algorithmic or bot trading happening, looking through the course of sales, there are so many small trades happening in between the real trades. They are in patterns of numbers. Right now they are around 84 - 86 shares and earlier they where round 90-96 shares.

I cant tell from my screens whether they are chippping away to sustain or lower the price yet. But just have a heads up if your looking to buy or sell or if you have orders placed.

condog · 16 August 2010

Interesting article about the gulf oil companies looking to change strategy and head for areas like the Eagle Ford Shale.

Anadarko CEO Jim Hackett said his firm plans this year to announce a joint venture in the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas. It previously signed Mitsui E&P USA LLC as a partner in a $1.4 billion Marcellus Shale deal.

The shift for some has been helped by a 20 percent rise in the price of natural gas , abundant in the rocks of Haynesville and Marcellus, since the BP disaster in April.

The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. hit an 18-month high of 992 this week, according to oil services firm Baker Hughes.

US onshore drilling rig count soars, Texas and North Dakota see biggest increases

Likely boosted by ramped up drilling in the various shale plays across the country, the number of drilling rigs contracted for work in the US spiked this week.

Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) reported today that the number of drilling rigs contracted onshore the US jumped by 35 this week to 1,640 rigs working on US soil. A substantial increase over last year, there were only 968 drilling rigs working at the same time in 2009.

Of the land rigs working in the US, there are nearly 640 drilling for oil and nearly 1,000 drilling for natural gas. More than 220 of the rigs are drilling directionally, while nearly 900 are drilling horizontal wells.

http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet.../exploration/2010/08/us-onshore_drilling.html

Slipperz · 16 August 2010

basilio said:
You don't want to stake your life on preopening bids do you? I think we have all been burned in these markets . Amazing how quickly bids can be retracted or changed in very short time. AUT now 1.02.

__________________________________________

It does look like a great buy though ..

LOL I was looking for a top up this morning and threw a couple of juicy bids in to lure a few sellers out of the woodwork then pulled em just before open.

:

nunthewiser · 16 August 2010

I suggest you ask the mods to remove your last post and this post as INTENTIONAL market manipulation is illegal mate........

Yes it does happen but its not the thing you want to admit to on a public forum ... i find your posts fair and ok hence my message..... others here i couldnt care less if they leave em selfs open to trouble.

might wanna look it up m8.

i did post a link on it on another thread once but buggered if i can find it or have the time to look it up again.

Slipperz · 16 August 2010

nunthewiser said:
I suggest you ask the mods to remove your last post and this post as INTENTIONAL market manipulation is illegal mate........

Yes it does happen but its not the thing you want to admit to on a public forum ... i find your posts fair and ok hence my message..... others here i couldnt care less if they leave em selfs open to trouble.

might wanna look it up m8.

i did post a link on it on another thread once but buggered if i can find it or have the time to look it up again.

Market manipulation my ass :

I still brought on the open just at a lower price

ASIC can look all they like nothing illegal in the trades IMHO

I change my mind all the time on pre open bids as to how keen I am for a chase, sometimes I'll go higher sometimes lower and sometimes I'll pull it.

nunthewiser · 16 August 2010

Slipperz said:
Market manipulation my ass :

I still brought on the open just at a lower price

ASIC can look all they like nothing illegal in the trades IMHO

I change my mind all the time on pre open bids as to how keen I am for a chase, sometimes I'll go higher sometimes lower and sometimes I'll pull it.

no worries. gotta watch ya wording mate..... no laws against changing your mind but there is in deliberately placing bids/sells to influence the depths for personal purposes....

anyways your a grown up, just pointing out your previous wording may cause strife.

not to worry

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...4973&highlight=market+manipulation#post544973

Slipperz · 16 August 2010

nunthewiser said:
no worries. gotta watch ya wording mate..... no laws against changing your mind but there is in deliberately placing bids/sells to influence the depths for personal purposes....

anyways your a grown up, just pointing out your previous wording may cause strife.

not to worry

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...4973&highlight=market+manipulation#post544973

Cheers anyway for the heads up.

Wasn't exactly the trade of the year TBH sitting on a loss as we speak.

condog · 16 August 2010

Crudes up slightly and the futures look fine at present, might be a good start if we get the report tomoz.

condog · 17 August 2010

Mixed Results On Restricted Wells
Aug 16, 2010 10:21 AM by Eric Fox

Exploration and production companies reported mixed success during the second quarter of 2010, with the practice of restricting production on wells in an effort to maximize productivity of the well over the long term in effect.

Although the practice leads to lower initial production rates, the companies believe that it will reduce decline rates for wells in unconventional resource basins and thus increase the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) for these wells.

Petrohawk Energy hasn't yet put out any official updated estimates on EURs for wells in the Haynesville Shale. The company reported during the second-quarter earnings conference call that first-year decline rates on wells would be reduced from approximately 80-85% to 45-55%, with some wells having first-year decline rates as low as 25%.

Not all exploration and production companies have reported success with restricted production. SM Energy

The Bottom Line
Exploration and production companies are experimenting with innovative production techniques and completion designs to boost productivity in unconventional resource basins

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stoc...ts-On-Restricted-Wells-HK-CRK-EOG-SM0816.aspx

condog · 17 August 2010

turnbull 3 IP = 629 boc and 1645mmcfgpd with only 1/3rd of the frac stimulated. A new design is doing it in 3 stages. And this is on a restricted choke.

So this looks like being a biggy on par with Morgan and Rancho

Pationio on Ipenema has spudded with 30% NRI

Turnbull 1 60 day flows = 710boepd which is excellent given its on a highly restricted choke.

All fantastic news imo.

condog · 17 August 2010

New high $1.085, just goes to show what a little gem this baby realy is. And imo theres plenty plenty more in this thing over the next year or two. Key risk = US recovery and hence oil price.

It appears the doomsayers on this stock where incredibly wrong once again.

As i said back at 78c ish, in a month or two you wont care whether you bought at 78c or 85c, as long as oil stays up and they keep fraccing and drilling, this baby will keep generally rising with its inevitable small corrections in my opinion. And its only an opinion, but its been right since 25c.

lemontree · 17 August 2010

Looking at the depth and course of sales, there are some bizzare trades going on, there are the ones at about 60 shares per trade then there are trades going at the same number each time for eg.
12:51:59 PM 1.060 6,875 7,287.50
12:51:53 PM 1.060 13,125 13,912.50
12:51:48 PM 1.060 6,875 7,287.50
12:51:39 PM 1.060 13,125 13,912.50

Anyone have any ideas whats up with this?

5min · 17 August 2010

lemontree said:
Looking at the depth and course of sales, there are some bizzare trades going on, there are the ones at about 60 shares per trade then there are trades going at the same number each time for eg.
12:51:59 PM 1.060 6,875 7,287.50
12:51:53 PM 1.060 13,125 13,912.50
12:51:48 PM 1.060 6,875 7,287.50
12:51:39 PM 1.060 13,125 13,912.50

Anyone have any ideas whats up with this?

bulked trades sliced down to avoid much attention. Most insto software does this or broker can do it for them.

condog · 17 August 2010

Sensational new update on AUT put out by Euroz today.

Below are some snippets to avoid copyright.

Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $1.08) Buy

Price Target: $1.50

Reason For Update: Operations Update

What We Know:

Turnbull-3H IP (comprising 629bopd; 1.645mmscf/d).1/3rd of the horizontal length

The first Ipanema AMI (AUT 30%) well, Patino-1H has spudded.

At Sugarloaf AMI (AUT 10%), the Luna-1H has spudded; this is being drilled at the eastern extents of the Sugarloaf AMI.

Kowalik-1H is awaiting the first phase of fraccing; we expect this to occur in the next 2-3wks.

We expect a maiden reserve announcement for AUT within the week.

no big surprises, other then 2-2.5x T3 flow is likely to make T3 as good as Rancho.

What We Think:

The Turnbull-3H results are highly encouraging ..... represented some of the best results in the Eagle Ford to date.

.....
More importantly, we believe that these changes will deliver higher total production over the early months and indeed, result in a higher plateau rate of production post the early hyperbolic decline........implying a decline rate of 30% over the 2 months

........ are clearly having positive bearing on well payback, project economics and profitability.

The results to date should underpin an impressive maiden reserve for AUT.

We can achieve well in excess of $2/sh on an unrisked basis.

They are obviously very bullich on the reserve report impact. New well economics and flows above everyones expectations seem imo to have made AUT superbly more valuable then anyone first thought.

condog · 17 August 2010

Well well well, pardon the pun

AUT rocketing to a new high and closing there in after trade on decent volume. Still lots of buying pressure on this baby.

Euroz report came out today, plus great update on Longhorn and Ipenema , and any moment we can anticipate release of the reserve report.

The ride wont last forever, but its bound to keep upward pressure while ever they are drilling and fraccing new wells that are on par with the best int he entire region.

BrightGreenGlow · 17 August 2010

Awseome news again guys. Finished at a nice $1.115. Big rally towards the end of trade so we are setup for another good day. Heaps of buyers and minimal sellers.

condog · 18 August 2010

Lets hope like hell we get that reserve upgrade this morning. Strong buying still stacked up, DJIA up strongly so far up 143pts, crude up $1.50+ accross the futures board, if it stays this way till open we could be in for another cracker of a day.

condog · 18 August 2010

Yep futures stayed up nicely. DJIA up nicely 104. Spain and Ireland helped confidence rolling thier debt options over. Anticipation of the reserve upgrade. We closed on the high with good volume.

Buyer volumes up around a million and sellers down around 195K, so nice buying pressure.

So things look nice imo.

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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