AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

condog

I don't think that Hilcorp need any teaching. Their specialisation is re-completions - you can see that from the TRRC web site. What will be interesting is to see if they get proportionately higher flow from Kowalik 1R's 6,500ft - although we won't know if they are choking back to the same extent as Rancho, for instance.

I don't know anything about charts (except that they represent historical behaviour of investors) but it could be that finalisation of the capital raising may allow investors to re-focus on fundamentals. There has been no wall of placing shares hitting the market - that might have been a concern.

It will be interesting to see what type of condensate ratio Ipanema delivers.

I think the last couple of days represent the cusp of northly trend and hopefully a cherio to recent groundhog days, lots of news due in the next coupla weeks that may provide the springboard to a serious upward trend

Welcome back Condog !!!... missed ya posts mate twas once stated by a wise ol gentleman " better to be a wrong optimist, than a right pessimist"

Good luck to all

estseon said:

condog

I don't think that Hilcorp need any teaching. Their specialisation is re-completions - you can see that from the TRRC web site. What will be interesting is to see if they get proportionately higher flow from Kowalik 1R's 6,500ft - although we won't know if they are choking back to the same extent as Rancho, for instance.

I don't know anything about charts (except that they represent historical behaviour of investors) but it could be that finalisation of the capital raising may allow investors to re-focus on fundamentals. There has been no wall of placing shares hitting the market - that might have been a concern.

It will be interesting to see what type of condensate ratio Ipanema delivers.

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I can't recall ever seeing anything like a precise map of just where the Ipanema acreage actually is, so a bit hard to tell if it is in the "condensate rich" section of the Eagle Ford? From the very very vague outline maps I have seen it is more towards the "dry gas" region, but whether it sits in it remains to be seen?

Welcome back Condog. Good to see you posting on here again.

I wouldn't call the attached image precise but it gives some indication of where the wells and leases are located. The outlines mostly came from old AUT reports and are now out of date and probably never where to accurate.

It shows Impanema in orange with the Patino unit well to be drilled next, I wouldn't be surprised if it produced similar condensate ratios as Easley etc as its pretty much on the same trend.

Anyway (hopefully) the next three wells Patino, Lunar, May will go a long way towards de-risking the rest of the acreage.

The image is NOT accurate so DYOR

It is really good timing. Condog came back. We can read the lovely posting again. Tomorrow, the market should be an interesting day.

Good luck for everyone!!!

Rockhound thats a beautiful image. The best ive seen to date. From what ive seen Ipenema is more toward the dry cas region, but crtainly most of it appears to be well within the condensate belt. Time will tell. One would think 9 from 9 has already derisked the play, but it certainly will help ahving the far reaches of the play confirmed as economic. Given our neighbours results in every direction its hard to see anything but a confirmation arising.

Esteon yeh they sure know what they are doing, but it would seem it still a case for everyone that the information sharing is helping signiificantly. Looks like the restricted chokes are working with the declines from what Petrohawk are saying and from what we have seen on our own so far. Hopefull those turnbulls will confirm that opinion when there flows come out.

If they are as highly restricted as suggested we can hopefully look forward to some lovely 30/60/90s etc, and one presumes lower maintanance to boot.

The other big positive fromt he petrohawk report was they have been trialing hybrid fracs with no harmful chemicals and having good results. So from an environmental perspective and cost perspective its looking good. Lower frac costs and less pump time was thier conclusion so far.

Right now its still early on the NYMEX with hours till we open, but so far the crude and its futures are looking fantastic from $82ish to $91 out to 2015. Be interesting to see if these oilers are speculating or have leading indicators of a US recovery for oil demand we are yet to hear of. DJIA is down 20 but hoviring most the day so far between -6 and -30, could go either way. Hopefully a positive finish or even neutral will see AUT establish new highs today. Our buy seel sread is 1034000 to 269000 which is by far the best differential since the CR several moons ago. So all looks primed for a new breakout.

My guess and its only a guess is each well is worth roughly 6.5 to 7.5c imo. We are owed Turnbull 1, 2 and 3 so around 21c from 88c looking at it on a fundamental basis, plus a small premium for sureing up longhorn. Wouldnt at all be surprised to see us tapping or pushing thru the dollar mark in the next few days. Followed by some profit takers and a pulback consolidation of 5-8c. This is only an opinion. Dont base anything on it and definitely do your own research and seek expert advice always.

Back to bed , its cold.

Been an ammendment put in to TRRC today for Turnbul 2. Damn this low word limit is annoying. /even that wasnt long enough. It appears to be just confirming its final coordinates.

Reliance joins Carrizo in Marcellus shale venture


By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Aug. 5 – Reliance Industries Ltd., Mumbai, has taken another step into US unconventional resource plays by entering a venture that envisions the drilling of 1,000 wells in the Marcellus shale fairway.

A subsidary, Reliance Marcellus II LLC, entered a joint venture with Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc., Houston, through which it will acquire a 60% interest in Marcellus shale acreage now held in a 50-50 joint venture of Carrizo and ACP II Marcellus LLC, an affiliate of Avista Capital Partners.

Paying a total of $392 million, Reliance will acquire 100% of Avista’s interest and 20% of Carrizo’s interest in the joint venture. New interests thus will be Reliance 60% and Carrizo 40%.

Of the total consideration, $340 million will be cash, and $52 million will be drilling carry obligations. The latter obligations will provide for 75% of Carrizo’s share of development costs over an expected 2-year development program.

The joint venture holds 104,400 net acres of undeveloped leases in the core area of the Marcellus shale in central and northeastern Pennsylvania.

End quote - from Penn Energy dot com
This is RIL's 3rd shale deal already in just a few months.
Equates to just $3754 per net acre. An attractive price indeed.

Still trying to break through the upper resistance levels but definitely looking more hopeful.
The MACD also gives a good picture, although the gap is narrowing.

The RSI indicates the share entering into the overbought areas.


Although volumes were better yesterday, making the share more liquid and viable for a trade, the consistancy of volumes being bought/sold is still on the low side overall. Proceed with caution.

I have been trying to get Your money Your call to do an analyst on this stock for weeks!! but have not been able to get through!!

last nite was so busy and would have been prime as the guy from Fat prophets was on there. Needs more promo!

nulla nulla said:

Although volumes were better yesterday, making the share more liquid and viable for a trade, the consistancy of volumes being bought/sold is still on the low side overall. Proceed with caution.

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Volumes where brilliant for this stock, well over a million on an 88c stock. just look at the volume chart, its stand out like dogs billiards. Signalled a massive shift in sentement and a possible drying up of sellers.

The MACD's have crossed exceptionally sharp and its completley broken out from its channell.

The stochastics look good and the fundamentals and buy sell imbalance supports the strong surge weve seen.

Still its a garbage stock for trading imo, plenty mor with higher volatility and higher vloumes. Not sure why traders are chasing this one. Its fundamentals which is what really counts are in place imo to underpin our next price surge and we are finally seing sellers exercising some desire for more then the post CR 10c.

Oil finished the NY day well and the DJIA only down 5. So everything imo from both a technical and fundamental view point is well and truly in place. Doesnt mean it will happen, but it certainly looks good. Just remmebr there are a few traders that will jump when they see a plateau and there are the nervous CR / SPP holders who know not much about the stock who might look to bail on nerves rather then fundamentals if we have a run.

To all LT holders sit back and enjoy the ride - if it happens.

very good start this morning, just 15 minutes, the price is up to $.91 at typing and volume is 635,227. hopefully it will keep going.

cmxd said:

very good start this morning, just 15 minutes, the price is up to $.91 at typing and volume is 635,227. hopefully it will keep going.

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Just as encouraging is the massive buy pressure. Hopefull people now fully appreciate this stock for what it is and what its going to be. Remeber two brokers with targets at 1.23 and 1.32.

Both those targets where produced when oil was over 10% lower then it is now and prior to the amazing 60 day flows released on Rancho yesterday.

Oils comfrotably holding $79+ lately which should mean an upgrade on the oil price , irrespective of the reserves upgrade.

Another positive is that this oil price is during our critical phase of paying for our first cash producing assets, which is just brilliant and couldnt have been timed more perfectly. Compare this to if we where trying to go through this stage last year at oil prices of <$50. $32 more profit per boe going towards repaying those frac and drilling cost. On Rancho thats $1m every 33 days extra towards cost recovery then cash flows. Got to love those well economics at such a critical stage. I know i do.

condog said:

Just as encouraging is the massive buy pressure. Hopefull people now fully appreciate this stock for what it is and what its going to be. Remeber two brokers with targets at 1.23 and 1.32.

Both those targets where produced when oil was over 10% lower then it is now and prior to the amazing 60 day flows released on Rancho yesterday.

Oils comfrotably holding $79+ lately which should mean an upgrade on the oil price , irrespective of the reserves upgrade.

Another positive is that this oil price is during our critical phase of paying for our first cash producing assets, which is just brilliant and couldnt have been timed more perfectly. Compare this to if we where trying to go through this stage last year at oil prices of <$50. $32 more profit per boe going towards repaying those frac and drilling cost. On Rancho thats $1m every 33 days extra towards cost recovery then cash flows. Got to love those well economics at such a critical stage. I know i do.

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Massive buy pressure vs sell condog.

"51 buyers for 1,234,774 units 19 sellers for 253,514 units"

Fantastic buy volumes, on new high on huge volumes relative to this stocks norms and recent volumes.

Closing on the high of the day again!

loves it! i really wanted to get in another order at 80-95c but looks like its going to have to go elsewhere and i will just have to sit on what i got till all eternity!

LYC, LNC or into EKA is going to be the the next gamble!


Happy days for all!

check out the sell list on Commsec it has at the 10th price someone selling 615 shares @ $100 i reckon they mean $1

yep closed on the high, im watching the fundamentals closer, but this will keep the techies happy.

Check this out. Every sale after 4pm by the big boys was at 92c.

and volumes support the rise with 92c as predicted the last few weeks. About time hey.

Its a good thing that reserve upgrade has been held back as it may just provide the next leg up when this ones over in a week or two. Certainly looking like buy sell spreads are back to more normal levels.

Id be happy to see 88c Plus 6c for T1, 6c for T2, 4c for T3, 6c on Kowalick, Afew cents for brilliant Rancho declines, and a few cents towards anticipated upgrade, giving us a new platform somewhere around $1.10 to $1.20 late next week.

For sure Hartleys aqnd Euroz will have to upgrade based just on the oil price soon . Those economics at $82 are rediculous compared to $70 and gas is doing just fine as well. I noted in the AZZ report they achieved $5.99 for thier gas last quarter. Thats a brilliant result. Far above the figures ive been using and the broker reports used.

What a beautiful day, what a surprised day, but it shouldn't surprise for AUT lover. It is lucky I topped up again yesterday. I need to thank Condog again, it is your effort to keep me be interested in AUT for long time.

Good luck for everyone!!!