AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

condog · 20 January 2010

Make your own judgment, but IMO its broke a major resistance line...

IMO most likely because news on #1 Kennedy or Easley #1H are being fraced as per Sugarloaf asx update a week or so ago... 7-10 days is anticipated time frame.... although news could come earlier.......

Kawalik #1 update should be soon as well

In addition from the ADI thread - Pioneer have tapped some serious gas at 17Mmcf per day...

choppy said:
Well the word is out on the Pioneer Crawley:

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=85928&hmpn=1

Best well in the dry gas trend so far.
17 mmcf/d.
WOW.
Starting to sound like Haynesville numbers.

ectoplasm · 20 January 2010

condog said:
Make your own judgment, but IMO its broke a major resistance line...
...

Agreed guys, seems to be over consolidation and price action sparking off IMO - maybe cause of recent 5x price sensitive company announcements

Chart:

condog · 20 January 2010

Thanks for that...

Green on top, split shape taper just visible, plus borken through and major announcments pending as early as today or tommorrow and as late as a weeks time..............

It feels like playing roulette with 35 winning slots at present....and the 5 losers are just time delays...

condog · 20 January 2010

Strong arvo, on no news......although some mods after 4pm..... but the good news is every afternoon at 4pm we are closer to what seems like the innevitable....

Tiny sell volumes left this afternoon.....agian one really wonders about the niavity or sanity of anyone selling within days of the news on Easley and Kennedy Fracs... perhaps they just have no clue whats going on.... especially those two idiots parting with 100,000 shares each... OMG if they leave AUT on thier lists what do you thinks gunna be going through there heads inn 12 months time.....

Hopefully not a smith and wesson...lol

WRONG'UN · 20 January 2010

Hi Condog
While I share your excitment with AUT (I actually hold ADI), it's getting a bit rich to describe anyone who sells right now as an idiot. How do you know that the person or persons who sold two lots of 100,000 shares had not earlier bought considerably more at a much lower price? Having done so, banking some of the paper profit would be perfectly sound risk management - hardly the behaviour of an idiot. While it would be nice to conclude that the sp is going to go to through the roof, there is no guarantee that it will.

condog · 20 January 2010

WRONG'UN said:
Hi Condog
While I share your excitment with AUT (I actually hold ADI), it's getting a bit rich to describe anyone who sells right now as an idiot. How do you know that the person or persons who sold two lots of 100,000 shares had not earlier bought considerably more at a much lower price? Having done so, banking some of the paper profit would be perfectly sound risk management - hardly the behaviour of an idiot. While it would be nice to conclude that the sp is going to go to through the roof, there is no guarantee that it will.

Fair pooint , bit too fiesty , but then perhaps they just have no semblance of common sense or intelligence rather then being an idiot.....lol just baiting you ignore it...

IMO by all means take a profit, but fancy leaving a sell on at a tiny gain that will only be reached on huge news....possibly very soon....thats maybe not idiocrity, but god damn its strange, no matter when they bought them....they havent though that one through real well...

condog · 21 January 2010

Re: AUT - Performance Rights Issue

A Total of 3M to one and 990,000 to his poor cousin....

I got no problems you want good people you got to pay em to keep them,
The first year target is fine, but subsequent years are a bit soft.....
2010 60c, 2011 70c, 2012, 80c, 2013 90c

Theres almost 224M total shares and options

They want 4M in performance thats a total 1.7% dilution
Eg upon exercise our shares become worth 1.7% less
At average exercisable price of say 65c that represents a remuniration bonus of roughly $1.95 Million and $643K spread over 4 years....It represent an approximate sp fall of 1cents per share over the 4 years

So no problem with the cost what so ever or the concept, but 2013 target they get 100% allotment as a performanc bonue even if they only increase the sp by 12.5%.........Other then some property exposure I wouldnt invest in any company aiming to get 12.5 % growth realisticlly.

IMO its first year is fine, subsequent years very soft targets, but probably not bad enough to reject....just maybe attach a note that your dissapointed with soft targets for later years so they dont pull that trick in future years...

In any case they have done an outstanding job in the last 6-12 months....

I wrote to them and expressed concern this morning...but said i would be backing it...

Nathan74 · 21 January 2010

condog said:
IMO by all means take a profit, but fancy leaving a sell on at a tiny gain that will only be reached on huge news....possibly very soon....thats maybe not idiocrity, but god damn its strange, no matter when they bought them....they havent though that one through real well...

Hi Condog, you have a very good understanding of AUT and I've found the majority of your posts very helpful. But your comment quoted above is way off the mark. As Wrongun pointed out, they could have already made a tidy profit. But there are many other reasons for selling which include:

1. Instead of making a 100% gain by holding the share, why not sell the peaks and buy the dips to potentially make a 500% profit! I hold this share and agree the sp has potential to rise considerably, but that doesn't mean I won't sell if I think the share has had a good run and may temporarily pull back.

2. The shareholder may not have any choice but to sell for financial reasons. You couldn't blame someone for selling if they can't pay their bills.

3. The shareholder may be looking to adjust their portfolio to a more conservative holding. AUT looks very promising but no share is guaranteed to go up. A more stable bluechip could be a better choice for a retiree trying to reduce risk.

4. The shareholder may know of another share which is poised to make even bigger gains. AUT isn't the only company close to making big announcements.

I am bullish on this share, but sellers have their reasons for selling, reasons which we have no knowledge of.

condog · 21 January 2010

Nathan74 said:
Hi Condog, you have a very good understanding of AUT and I've found the majority of your posts very helpful. But your comment quoted above is way off the mark. As Wrongun pointed out, they could have already made a tidy profit. But there are many other reasons for selling which include:

1. Instead of making a 100% gain by holding the share, why not sell the peaks and buy the dips to potentially make a 500% profit! I hold this share and agree the sp has potential to rise considerably, but that doesn't mean I won't sell if I think the share has had a good run and may temporarily pull back.

2. The shareholder may not have any choice but to sell for financial reasons. You couldn't blame someone for selling if they can't pay their bills.

3. The shareholder may be looking to adjust their portfolio to a more conservative holding. AUT looks very promising but no share is guaranteed to go up. A more stable bluechip could be a better choice for a retiree trying to reduce risk.

4. The shareholder may know of another share which is poised to make even bigger gains. AUT isn't the only company close to making big announcements.

I am bullish on this share, but sellers have their reasons for selling, reasons which we have no knowledge of.

All points noted and agreed.....very legit points

I still think they are nutzo with such potentially signiificant announcments pending....unless they are doing it with 2 parcels or oppies of some sort..

Speculator · 22 January 2010

22nd January 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Kennedy #1H - Fracture stimulation program
Aurora has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that the fracture stimulation operations at Kennedy #1H commenced as scheduled on Monday 18th January. The operations thus far have been executed as planned with the fourth stimulation stage out of fourteen under way early on the morning of Thursday 21st January local time. It is expected that the stimulations will be completed next week and thereafter the isolating plugs that are set in between each stimulation stage will be drilled out with coiled tubing and the well will be flowed back to sales.

Easley #1 H – Spud of new well
TCEI have also advised Aurora that the Patterson #150 drilling unit has now completed rig up and the Easley #1H well was spudded on Thursday 21st January. The well is scheduled to take approximately 40 days to drill, which includes a vertical pilot hole from which additional data on the Eagle Ford Shale will be gathered. The well has been designed with a 4,000 ft horizontal section and will access both the Austin Chalk horizon, which is locally prevalent within the Sugarkane field, and the Eagle Ford Shale when it is subsequently stimulated. The well is located approximately 2km to the north east of the Weston #1H well. The Easley #1H well will be the first new well to be drilled under the farmin agreement with Hilcorp Energy within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Further operational updates will be issued on a weekly basis or if required following material events.
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman

condog · 22 January 2010

Speculator said:
22nd January 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Kennedy #1H - Fracture stimulation program
Aurora has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that the fracture stimulation operations at Kennedy #1H commenced as scheduled on Monday 18th January. The operations thus far have been executed as planned with the fourth stimulation stage out of fourteen under way early on the morning of Thursday 21st January local time. It is expected that the stimulations will be completed next week and thereafter the isolating plugs that are set in between each stimulation stage will be drilled out with coiled tubing and the well will be flowed back to sales.

Easley #1 H – Spud of new well
TCEI have also advised Aurora that the Patterson #150 drilling unit has now completed rig up and the Easley #1H well was spudded on Thursday 21st January. The well is scheduled to take approximately 40 days to drill, which includes a vertical pilot hole from which additional data on the Eagle Ford Shale will be gathered. The well has been designed with a 4,000 ft horizontal section and will access both the Austin Chalk horizon, which is locally prevalent within the Sugarkane field, and the Eagle Ford Shale when it is subsequently stimulated. The well is located approximately 2km to the north east of the Weston #1H well. The Easley #1H well will be the first new well to be drilled under the farmin agreement with Hilcorp Energy within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Further operational updates will be issued on a weekly basis or if required following material events.
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman

Did you hear that folks - Kennedy will be flowing to sales next week .............that = cash $$ Today may be the last day to tap in...??

Love it....With Easely hot on its heals.......

adobee · 22 January 2010

New Sugarloaf AMI update out... looking good.. right on time too to get rid of the 16c sellers... would love a push past 18c resistance

adobee · 22 January 2010

adobee said:
New Sugarloaf AMI update out... looking good.. right on time too to get rid of the 16c sellers... would love a push past 18c resistance

sorry wrong thread !! my bad ... ADI thread for this one.. same info but ..
GO ADI & AUT ...........

condog · 23 January 2010

All good news so far since last post in HC forum and in ADI thread on ASF....no reports of any probs....

Kennedy announcment of oil flow to sales is imminent....

Easely, barring any probs will be flowing to sales around 2nd March and

we should have a Kowalik update soon....

Not sure where they are up to on redesign of existing wells....anyone know??

condog · 26 January 2010

A little dated but An interesting diagram and website that explains the Eagleford shale....from http://www.energyindustryphotos.com/eagle_ford_shale__formation_of_s.htm
diclaimer - no responsibility for ext links, by ASF or me...

Aurora Tenement sits right almost on top of the shelf margins

philly · 26 January 2010

Hey Condog,
I see you are very excited about the following ASX announcement especially the last sentence

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Kennedy #1H - Fracture stimulation program
Aurora has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that the fracture stimulation operations at Kennedy #1H commenced as scheduled on Monday 18th January. The operations thus far have been executed as planned with the fourth stimulation stage out of fourteen under way early on the morning of Thursday 21st January local time. It is expected that the stimulations will be completed next week and thereafter the isolating plugs that are set in between each stimulation stage will be drilled out with coiled tubing and the well will be flowed back to sales.

I'm not being smart and I hope I am wrong [ I hold ADI] I think "flowed back to sales" doesn't make sense. Perhaps "sales" may be short for the place La Salles which is the oil and gas hub in the region. Presumably it has to go there before it can be sold so hopefully in the end your excitement is justified

condog · 26 January 2010

philly said:
I'm not being smart and I hope I am wrong [ I hold ADI] I think "flowed back to sales" doesn't make sense. Perhaps "sales" may be short for the place La Salles which is the oil and gas hub in the region. Presumably it has to go there before it can be sold so hopefully in the end your excitement is justified

Hey Philly
Na its common language for all of them...flowed to sales or flowed back to sales...it would be an incredibly not funny coincidence if you where right....
But all mine im involved with regularly yse this term indicating flow of oil to sales...$$

philly · 26 January 2010

condog said:
Hey Philly
Na its common language for all of them...flowed to sales or flowed back to sales...it would be an incredibly not funny coincidence if you where right....
But all mine im involved with regularly yse this term indicating flow of oil to sales...$$

Hey Condog
I hadn't come across the phrase before so I am happy to accept your explanation. Hopefully sales soon will give the SP a boost along. Thanks

condog · 28 January 2010

Hi guys n gals
Kennedy flow announcment should be today or tommorrow, monday at the latest.....it is winter however....they may have cold hands???

condog · 28 January 2010

Got our news, not what we wanted to hear,

But all in all it will produce from 8 of the 14 stages....

We should get another announcment soon on flow rates...

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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