The news from Sugarloaf and Kennedy, while not "over the moon" does have some positives which gives me some hope that Aut will prove a worthwhile investment after all this waiting. It comes a little too late to help the recent rights issue but it may give the underwriters a chance to pass on the shares without loss and without crashing the SP.
AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
- Start date
AUT is certainly the poor relative of ADI. While the posts on ADI continue on a daily basis there has not been a post on AUT for almost 8 months. It seems odd that one company with it's main story being the Sugarloaf oil and gas venture gets so much support yet AUT with the same percentage interest gets next to none. While AUT's interest in sugarloaf is diluted compared to that of ADI the fact that AUT has an interest in much more acreage more than offsets the dilution.
For some time now I have used the difference in valuations in the SP of both to trade between the two. Once again today I used the difference to trade for a bigger share in the fortunes of the area and still cream off some petty cash. The rise of ADI by 22.22% for the day compared with the rise of only 2.56% by AUT made this possible. Added to that is the fact that the ADI I sold were bought with the proceeds of an AUT sale when the comparative values were in reverse to those today.
My conclusion today is that, compared to the SP of ADI, the SP of AUT is undervaluing the company.
With the possibility of good news regarding the Kennedy frac due in the next few days the potential for both ADI and AUT is enormous, especially with the spiraling price of oil.
I'm often wrong so DYOR.
For some time now I have used the difference in valuations in the SP of both to trade between the two. Once again today I used the difference to trade for a bigger share in the fortunes of the area and still cream off some petty cash. The rise of ADI by 22.22% for the day compared with the rise of only 2.56% by AUT made this possible. Added to that is the fact that the ADI I sold were bought with the proceeds of an AUT sale when the comparative values were in reverse to those today.
My conclusion today is that, compared to the SP of ADI, the SP of AUT is undervaluing the company.
With the possibility of good news regarding the Kennedy frac due in the next few days the potential for both ADI and AUT is enormous, especially with the spiraling price of oil.
I'm often wrong so DYOR.
Hey Nioka, I guess ADI serves as the proxy thread for the other Sugarloaf partners. I am still in ADI, EKA and have a few AUT for the extra acreage. Let's hope for some great results in the next month or two and silence the naysayers who've been irking us for the past couple of years.
Took the plunge on 100,000 AUT shares this morning
Loved the tenements they hold in what IMO is looking like it could be the best shale oil reserve in the entire USA..... results look extremely encouraging
And if they smash 10 wells into that reserve within 12 months the return looks astronomical....
I had huge trouble deciding between ADI and AUT as they both have great exposure....ADI has more leverage due to low market cap, but i chose AUT as it had far more acerace and a much bigger variety of projects outside Sugarkane....
This is only ammature opinion so DYOR and DEFINITELY seek expert advcie ... but the company in its investor presentation has 10 wells+ funded for 2010 and if it pulls the all off with 100% strikes and great flow rates, it projects possible? market cap of 200M to 600M.....
My guestimate i went with 300M as my most likely outcome that i wanted ...current market cap is $58M and they have approx $11M cash
so i guestimated my possible upside was approx 400-600% with a likely worst case scenario for me of 200-300% inside 12 months...
Anyway these are just my proojections i used for my by calcs...I really mean this as i am often wrong so DYOR and seek expert advice...
Feel free to cross examine my numbers in thier announcments and please let me know in here if you disagree or agree...
Also see ADI thread which has heaps of info on this as ADI and AUT are both 20% interests in the same Sugarkane project...
Hapy investing ...
Loved the tenements they hold in what IMO is looking like it could be the best shale oil reserve in the entire USA..... results look extremely encouraging
And if they smash 10 wells into that reserve within 12 months the return looks astronomical....
I had huge trouble deciding between ADI and AUT as they both have great exposure....ADI has more leverage due to low market cap, but i chose AUT as it had far more acerace and a much bigger variety of projects outside Sugarkane....
This is only ammature opinion so DYOR and DEFINITELY seek expert advcie ... but the company in its investor presentation has 10 wells+ funded for 2010 and if it pulls the all off with 100% strikes and great flow rates, it projects possible? market cap of 200M to 600M.....
My guestimate i went with 300M as my most likely outcome that i wanted ...current market cap is $58M and they have approx $11M cash
so i guestimated my possible upside was approx 400-600% with a likely worst case scenario for me of 200-300% inside 12 months...
Anyway these are just my proojections i used for my by calcs...I really mean this as i am often wrong so DYOR and seek expert advice...
Feel free to cross examine my numbers in thier announcments and please let me know in here if you disagree or agree...
Also see ADI thread which has heaps of info on this as ADI and AUT are both 20% interests in the same Sugarkane project...
Hapy investing ...
For anyone who reads the ADI thread which has most the discussion on the Sugarkane project, you may have noted I was torn between buying AUT and ADI ...
I went with AUT over ADI primarly becasue AUT had a post farm in interest of 20% and both EKA and ADI had post farm in interests of 12.5% adn 10% respectively....
AUT also seemed to have IMO a lot better balance sheet with more cash burn time up there sleeves....
But the major deciding factor was after researching the success of other major minors in adjoining areas scuh as ConocoPhillipr and Petrohawk etc it seems this area is fast becoming a seriously world class oil development project......
As a result AUT had serious acerage compared to the other two ASX companies.... which gives them huge farmn in opportunities with Hillcorp or any of the other majors.....
It was raised that the acerage comes at a huge price.....upon investigation it appears there is much pent up demand and interest by major oil and gas players to obtain access to the region.... So I decided any cost problems with leasing such acerage could in most cases be easily resolved by gradual and rducing % farm ins.....
DYOR, but the likelihood of this project having rediculous short term upside is very high IMO....... The hilltop farm in alone looks set to bring 10 weels online into production with very high flow rates within 12 months.....
Then the excess acerage that AUT has is likely to be farmed into with reduced % on the back of that cash flow....
I would not be surprised if AUT has up to 30 high flow rigs in this one lease within 3 years.... the first at 20% interest , the next 50%, then 80% interst or there abouts....
Definitely DYOR and never forget this type of stock may have big possible upside, but they do carry significant risks.... Always seek expert advice...
I went with AUT over ADI primarly becasue AUT had a post farm in interest of 20% and both EKA and ADI had post farm in interests of 12.5% adn 10% respectively....
AUT also seemed to have IMO a lot better balance sheet with more cash burn time up there sleeves....
But the major deciding factor was after researching the success of other major minors in adjoining areas scuh as ConocoPhillipr and Petrohawk etc it seems this area is fast becoming a seriously world class oil development project......
As a result AUT had serious acerage compared to the other two ASX companies.... which gives them huge farmn in opportunities with Hillcorp or any of the other majors.....
It was raised that the acerage comes at a huge price.....upon investigation it appears there is much pent up demand and interest by major oil and gas players to obtain access to the region.... So I decided any cost problems with leasing such acerage could in most cases be easily resolved by gradual and rducing % farm ins.....
DYOR, but the likelihood of this project having rediculous short term upside is very high IMO....... The hilltop farm in alone looks set to bring 10 weels online into production with very high flow rates within 12 months.....
Then the excess acerage that AUT has is likely to be farmed into with reduced % on the back of that cash flow....
I would not be surprised if AUT has up to 30 high flow rigs in this one lease within 3 years.... the first at 20% interest , the next 50%, then 80% interst or there abouts....
Definitely DYOR and never forget this type of stock may have big possible upside, but they do carry significant risks.... Always seek expert advice...
condog your pretty much right with what you are saying but the % is wrong
aut has 51500 gross acres 20000 net acres pre farm out
eka has 23500 gross acres 12.5% of that is 2900 net acre pre farm out
adi has 23500 gross acres 20% of that is 4700 net acres pre farm out
all gave away 50% to hilcorp, i think i'm right on this
if the wells perform as they expect (based on well result around the place)
$300m market cap will be low for aut
aut has 51500 gross acres 20000 net acres pre farm out
eka has 23500 gross acres 12.5% of that is 2900 net acre pre farm out
adi has 23500 gross acres 20% of that is 4700 net acres pre farm out
all gave away 50% to hilcorp, i think i'm right on this
if the wells perform as they expect (based on well result around the place)
$300m market cap will be low for aut
Are you referring to me having it wrong with acerage or %, im not sure....
The % are spot on as far as I can tell....the acerages yeh your right , except perhaps on ADI as im not sure if that was there pre or post farm in acerage....I thought post farm in ADI had 10% of 23,000 acres so they only have 2300 acres....which by the way is fantastic, nut just not as good as AUT...
Na your close - but ADI only has 10% after farm in....
see company presentation dated 25th Nov 2009
MIR Im glad you questioned me on that , as it triggered me to go cross check the reports and my sums on AUT.... while i was there I re-read sections of that Nov ADI report and the AUT web site.....
In particular I went over and recalculated the NSAI resource estimate ...... And even when they are set to worst case and then discounted by 60% my clacluations on this are horrendous.....
Im not going to put them in here as some moron might acuse me of ramping.... but go and do your own calculations...particularly on the figures refferred to by the NSIA from page 16 of the 24 page ADI report and from the AUT website
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp
Using the worst case scenario in the NSIA report I still come out with a projected share price of $9.32 for 5 years time.... and discounted 50% Im projecting $4.65 by 2015.....with a significnat proportion of those gains in the first 2 years....
Id really like someone else to go and run some calculations and cross check mine...so please feel free to absolutely hammer it, but with your new numbers based on the NSIA estimates would be best....
All of this is obviously reliant on AUT meeting the NSIA worst case projection....and that is not guaraunteed....
DYOR, seek expert advice....
In particular I went over and recalculated the NSAI resource estimate ...... And even when they are set to worst case and then discounted by 60% my clacluations on this are horrendous.....
Im not going to put them in here as some moron might acuse me of ramping.... but go and do your own calculations...particularly on the figures refferred to by the NSIA from page 16 of the 24 page ADI report and from the AUT website
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp
Using the worst case scenario in the NSIA report I still come out with a projected share price of $9.32 for 5 years time.... and discounted 50% Im projecting $4.65 by 2015.....with a significnat proportion of those gains in the first 2 years....
Id really like someone else to go and run some calculations and cross check mine...so please feel free to absolutely hammer it, but with your new numbers based on the NSIA estimates would be best....
All of this is obviously reliant on AUT meeting the NSIA worst case projection....and that is not guaraunteed....
DYOR, seek expert advice....
condog aut have 3 areas sugarloaf 23500 gross acres (aut 20%,eka12.5%,adi20%)
longhorn 23500 gross acreas (only aut 50%)
ipanema 4500 gross acres (only aut 80%) this is pre farm out, post farm out half the % above.
those new calcs of yours are more along the lines of what I've been hearing for a year or so.
longhorn 23500 gross acreas (only aut 50%)
ipanema 4500 gross acres (only aut 80%) this is pre farm out, post farm out half the % above.
those new calcs of yours are more along the lines of what I've been hearing for a year or so.
MIR the report was on the conservative side an i have scaled those figures back even more by using extremely conservative numbers and then discounting them by 40%.....
Its the biggest nooooooooo brainer I have ever discovered in many years of investing.......Lots of upside and most the big risks are taken care of.....Mgmt here are doing an insanely brilliant job in negotiations....... IMO...but DYOR and seek expert advice...
Im not ramping, hell i hope you dont by it as when VIL eventually goes i will be buying a truck load more of this......
Its the biggest nooooooooo brainer I have ever discovered in many years of investing.......Lots of upside and most the big risks are taken care of.....Mgmt here are doing an insanely brilliant job in negotiations....... IMO...but DYOR and seek expert advice...
Im not ramping, hell i hope you dont by it as when VIL eventually goes i will be buying a truck load more of this......
condog "its the biggest nooooooo brainer" is correct but we need a reasonable result from the next 2 fracs .us long term holders have been waiting a while but with hilcorp on board spending the necessary amount of money we should get results similar to others in the area & then we should be away.
I fully understand your frustration if you have been in it long term, but Hilcorp do not pay their execs monumental salaries and bonuses to stuff around with things that wont cash in big time.... secondly Hilcorp have targets that must be met or its no pay day.... They didn't become Hillcorp without absolutely knowing and succeding at what they do....
Mate have faith your circumstances have massively changed and with 3 wells in progress, plus 3 more soon expect a change of fortunes very soon.... Have you looked at the flow rates of the new well designs they are putting in.... and there redesign of the existing wells to take advantage of the new technologies on offer...for this type of frac...if your not familiar its all outline in the ADI Annual Presentation form late 2009....
condog you are getting up to speed very quickly on this. i have seen most of the aut presentations in person & do believe in the potential, it is massive.
aut have 3 wells in progress & 7 new ones not 3 (with hicorp).
i agree with what you are saying about hilcorp as they had access to all the data on wells in the region through tcei when negotiating the farm in ,they know what their getting
aut have 3 wells in progress & 7 new ones not 3 (with hicorp).
i agree with what you are saying about hilcorp as they had access to all the data on wells in the region through tcei when negotiating the farm in ,they know what their getting
I was working from this below and think we just have our wires crossed, no big shakes , neither here nor there...
The key elements of the farmout for Aurora are as follows:-
To me the Shale has major benefits over other projects....
On this basis this is post farm in for ADI so for AUT double these figures...
ADI is saying a possible 235 Wells, now thats insane when you consider the size of thes companies.....calculate that out , then try and tell me theres not enough upside......lol
whoop whoop 10% up this morning and new 12 mth high for the year....of 33c
3:1 + Buy Sell Ratio, although some are old buys at stupidly low prices...
Hopefully the news is filtering out to the broader market about all 3 ASX Sugarkane prospects... DYOR and seek expert advice.....
3:1 + Buy Sell Ratio, although some are old buys at stupidly low prices...
Hopefully the news is filtering out to the broader market about all 3 ASX Sugarkane prospects... DYOR and seek expert advice.....
Can you post a pic of your source or quote please....
The acreage helps in future value, but the all the values in my calcs are off predicted oil and gas ....
The acerage was a hair spliter between ADI, EKA and AUT as they all have exposure and levarage to any potential upside...
Acerage data attached from AUT web site
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp
Disc- DYOR, seek expert advice, no responsibility taken by ASF or me for external link
I think you have hold of the tail and ive got the dog or vice versa, but small fry so dont worry....focus on the possible MmBoe .... acerage will be useful after that, and you and me will most likely have traded out of it and be sitting on a beach in the Bahammmas....lol ----no upside implied, just fun...
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp
Disc- DYOR, seek expert advice, no responsibility taken by ASF or me for external link
I think you have hold of the tail and ive got the dog or vice versa, but small fry so dont worry....focus on the possible MmBoe .... acerage will be useful after that, and you and me will most likely have traded out of it and be sitting on a beach in the Bahammmas....lol ----no upside implied, just fun...
condog i am new to posting & dont know how to use all the features so that's why my post are basic but i am not new to aut & have not sold a share in 4 or more years (have added along the way) and will be waiting for it to reach true value which is miles north of here imo. plenty of things starting to happen so i think your timing on this has been pretty good.
