AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

condog said:

Thanks MIR, good to have you back.

Slipperz nice to see som logical technicals on here at last.

That major resistance at 74 has been present for a week or two now since the 75c SPP was announced and we rebounded above it.

Im still firmly with Nokia that we are fundamentals and news driven at present. But for the technical traders , thats a far more accurate and realistic perspective then those recently being purported. With a nice flag formation and fundamentals in place for a positive breakout of the flag pattern.

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I like to use the charts as a fair indication of where we might be heading in tandem with looking at the fundamentals.

I got onboard in the mid 40's back in April assuming the derisking of the acreages by Hillcorp would bring us some rewards.

It's not hard to see the effect some of the news has had on the upwards momentum of AUT but overall we are tracking in a nice strong uptrend.

I got out a couple of days beofre the CR and have been back in for all of 7 trading sessions, and will stay in now for the longterm as I consider AUT to be more of an investment than a trading stock at this stage.

I don't think we are likely to test the lower line of support unless something pretty drastic occurs, like a series of dusters for example or a dramatic worsening of the economic outlook for the US. ( or both)

IMHO we are more than likely to continue in this strong uptrend with spikes to the upside as the reserves are upgraded, the drilling news comes in and our cash position strengthens with every quarter.

I too agree with Slipperz, the long term trend is still intact. There has been a consolidation period, a possible cup formation over the last 6-7 weeks (albeit a little messy). As a technical trader, the key points are weak support at 82c and resistance at 88c. If support is breached at 82c then it may test the recent low at around 75c.
I have always struggled with knowing when to enter a stock which has trended up for such a long time. This is one thing I need to learn to understand as I continue on the journey. Charts can only tell you so much and the best thing you can do is use them as a guide.
I have missed the action in this stock to date and am looking to enter as the fundamentals look good. I am waiting to see which level is reached first and will trade accordingly. Look forward to any comments/guidance......

I have found the comments in this thread very interesting and look forward to more insight to the fundamentals of the shale oil play which I know very little about, but am learning thanks to this thread.

While AUT is in a medium term strong uptrend, you can't ignore the overall market position, which is looking increasingly bearish. Very rarely does anything go against the overall market trend. Once negativity and panick sets in, nothing is saved. I suppose if you are a very long term holder and have faith in the fundamentals, then you just ignore the charts completely. However, if you're in that position, you can't just pick and choose chart analysis when it suites your bullish position. If (when imo) the market falls over completely again, then AUT will likely follow. For long term believers in the sector and this stock, then a great opportunity to buy again perhaps. For those intent on saving capital, keep stops in place.

Puts our production figures in a pretty good light.

http://www.scandoil.com/moxie-bm2/news/clayton-williams-provides-update-on-eagle-ford-sha.shtml

kennas said:

While AUT is in a medium term strong uptrend, you can't ignore the overall market position, which is looking increasingly bearish. Very rarely does anything go against the overall market trend. Once negativity and panick sets in, nothing is saved. I suppose if you are a very long term holder and have faith in the fundamentals, then you just ignore the charts completely. However, if you're in that position, you can't just pick and choose chart analysis when it suites your bullish position. If (when imo) the market falls over completely again, then AUT will likely follow. For long term believers in the sector and this stock, then a great opportunity to buy again perhaps. For those intent on saving capital, keep stops in place.

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Imo the driving force behind AUT is the continual positive news and results it receives.
The risk is as soon has it has a duster or even no positive news for any lengthy period it would see the sp fall significately and under present market conditions that wouldn't take much so providing AUT dont hit a duster & continue to receive positive news they should continue to hold fairly well regardless.
My only other concern is with all the extra acres comes extra expenses.
( More dilutions CRs ect)
That to me could be where AUT may become unstuck.
A lot of acres to manage.

jancha said:

Imo the driving force behind AUT is the continual positive news and results it receives.
The risk is as soon has it has a duster or even no positive news for any lengthy period it would see the sp fall significately and under present market conditions that wouldn't take much so providing AUT dont hit a duster & continue to receive positive news they should continue to hold fairly well regardless.
My only other concern is with all the extra acres comes extra expenses.
( More dilutions CRs ect)
That to me could be where AUT may become unstuck.
A lot of acres to manage.

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Jancha your concerns about a duster would certainly be a speedbump or hicup, but i dont think it would derail the stock significantly.

Hartleys have run the numbers on the new hilcorp program and see the need for a possible debt facility in H2 2011. On the back of a current one its a bit premature to let CR worry us imo, as the value that will be added betweeen now and H2 2011 should imo be immense. At around $14-18M per well dependent on costs / prices and flows. With 10-13 wells yet for 2010 then 37 in 2011, so at leasat around 28 wells prior to H2 2011, we are talking about a NPV of approx 2 tot 2.5 times the current mcap prior to any further need for capital or debt. Plus cash revenues.

All looks good to me , except the 266 DJIA fall.

kennas,

I have concerns about the fragility of confidence in the markets. That is because of the apparent global reliance on the US recovery to drive global recovery and because of reliance on the Euroland fix of the sovereign debt problems in Greece and Spain. It doesn't actually make me feel any more comfortable that Germany's motive in assisting these countries is that its own export market has boomed as a result of their extravagances. However, you have seen bearish signals and I wondered whether you could point to other things that should be watched closely.

As a chartist, do you see any pattern of nervousness on Fridays? It is a serious question because bank failures are often announced on Mondays after weekends spent trying to avert failure whilst the markets are closed.

estseon said:

kennas,

I have concerns about the fragility of confidence in the markets. That is because of the apparent global reliance on the US recovery to drive global recovery and because of reliance on the Euroland fix of the sovereign debt problems in Greece and Spain. It doesn't actually make me feel any more comfortable that Germany's motive in assisting these countries is that its own export market has boomed as a result of their extravagances. However, you have seen bearish signals and I wondered whether you could point to other things that should be watched closely.

As a chartist, do you see any pattern of nervousness on Fridays? It is a serious question because bank failures are often announced on Mondays after weekends spent trying to avert failure whilst the markets are closed.

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estseon, My bearishness on the XAO is seen in the 4 year non algo chart which has strong resistance across 5000 and now 4500. 4000 support very possible to the downside with the overhead resistance set.

Must say though, my bearishness is not in the charts. It's the the worlds inability to find a long term solution to the disaster we have created. Cheap money, low rates, bs lending practices, encouraging people to get in to debt, and bebt, and debt ...... unsustainable.

Having said that, AUT has defied gravity the past year and steamed ahead. By all accounts here, it's no longer a 'multi bagger' as it has already made all the easy gains. 10c to 85c is obvioulsy amazing stuff. 85c to $1.20 (Hartleys and Euroz target) is very good, but probably doesn't require the ferver presented in some of the posting here. Multi bagger potential has long gone imo, but could produce some good gains on a one stock basis if all goes to expectations.

Kennas it is wise to be cautious of the ords at present.

AUt has and will most likely to continue to defy gravity to a certain extent and run its on race, influenced by sentiment, rather then controlled by sentiment.

AUt has defied gravity because it has added substantial assets to its books and proved it can recover a substantial amount of its proven reserves in an economic way.

Yes easy gains have been made, and if you look back in the posts, you will see it was predicted accurately by several of us here. Right now looking forward there are still substantial price catalysts on offer.

Hartleys projects a reserves upgrade of 300%

Wells at end of 2010 will likely be double those projected and 2011 wells are likely to be double those projected.

So there is still potential for multibaggers even at 84c, particularly for those with a longer term focus.

Consider this, if they successfully frac Kowalick and 10-13 more wells in 2010 and 37 wells with 20% interest to AUt in 2011. What will be the value of AUT.

Also what will be the value if the reserves are upgraded by 300% in July or August 2010 as suggested by Hartleys to those calculating prices based on reserves rather then cash flow projections.

What will be the value if in July 2011 or Dec 2011 with approximately 50+ wells with approx 20%interest are flowing to sales with another 75 or so planned for 2012.

right now AUT still trades at a roughly 40% discount to the M & A activity that is occuring all around it.

I cant give advice or make reccomendations, but assuming no takeover and no plummet in oil prices, I wouldnt be saying its not a multibagger.

210M for the mcap of these assets and its forward cash flows is absolute peanuts.

When i entered this stock i copped a lot of pressure of certain individuals for speaking about its multibag potential, yet in that time it has gone from low 20's to 88c. Right now i see just as much potential and certainly less risk then i saw at 26c. Perhaps the pace will not be as frantic, but imo the likelihood is similar if not better.

This certainly stems on continuing to attain good results, with solid oil prices and accident free.

This is not advice implied or direct. It is merely an opinion of mine. Seek expert advice , do your own research and definitely do not act on this post or any of my posts. They are all opinion.

Right now its 39c below one analyst valuation and 48c below the other. Those are most likely 6 month targets looking at dec 2010, although Hartleys does call it both a valuation and a target.

Thats with 10-13 more wells predicted for 2010. If they then drill 2011 up to 37 wells for AUT, thats a increase from roughly 18 wells to roughly 55 wells at end of 2011. If the average of Hartleys and Euroz is an end of 2010 target of 1.28, then at end of 2011 its likely to be 55/18*1.28 = $3.91

$3.91 over current sp = 465% increase from todays price. This is hypothetical based on Hartleys figures and Euroz figures and projections. Seek advice and do not act on this.

But Kennas this does highlight the realistic potential of this stock as still a multibagger, dependent on timelines, flows and oil prices.

Even if they turned around and did a CR, SPP, or debt facility in H2 2011, for $40 to $60M, at these prices its going to add value rather then destroy value if it means they can secure more prime acerage or drill faster.

nice posts kennas and nun

totally agree on all being posted

the volumes at 10% above the cap raising speak for themselves, plenty of shares to be turned out atm.. nice share to punt a few day trading dollars into, a cent here or a cent here,, but all the ones buying into the broker excitement that aut will create with upcoming reserves upgrades will be greatly appreciated by the sophisticated investors, but i agree with kennas that its not likely to run into a multibagger from here..

exit strategies are the key on this share at this point in time, how to play it and who can exit with their volumes, and at what price level..

with the massive disappointment of t2, i hope t3 is a salvage for them.. i am sure they will at least shut in the well this time and not double up the error, but great to see that any flow has come from t2 so far.. that wasnt expected by me.. miracles can happen... lol.. but it demonstrates what level of you can mess up and still turn over a few dollars back from the well, how it holds on and how long it will take to pay back what the declines will be for the choked back wells from now on will be interesting to watch. once they start releasing pressures on the well head and you can actually make sense of the announcements, then maybe i will dip my toes, but i wont be running blind on and throwing cash into a share that wont reveal how good or bad a well really is going.. in my experience, when things are not being said its usually to hide something...

lots of big holders with huge share exposures are in the mix, and many will be thinking hard on taking profit.

but if you look at the volumes going out .. the sophisticated are eagerly taking what they can get and its where the action is if you want to get in and believe any upside potential will be attained..

happily waiting on the sidelines and good luck to all investors and sellers alike

Agent, have you forgotten the sound of the elephant stampede. The AUT SP is around the same value that it was at the time that an elephants picture was posted on these threads by a contributor that had great faith in the Sugarloaf play.

I've spent some time recently going over old posts and there sure is a lot of them. Some I found very interesting in retrospect. I fail to understand why things have changed so dramatically for some contributors sentiment since the AWE bid for ADI while at the same time the good results keep coming. I am more enthuastic at this point of time than I have been at any other time in my association with the stock.

I remain disappointed with the rapid capitulation by the ADI directors (we was robbed) but I suggest it will be a different case with AUT. I can still hear the elephants. I can see that AUT will be cash flow positive in short time and earning considerable surplus funds. I'm happy to hold and still accumulating.

On the evidence being put forward by both Hartleys and Euroz it looks potentially to be a 3-4 bagger by mid to end of 2011. Oil price sensitive of course.

Agent im guessing you mean for the instos from thier CR and the SPP recipients that want to trade. There should be some additional turnover as per post any CR and SPP imo.

T2 hardly dissapointing imo, very high liquids ratio, great flows on a "highly restricted" choke. Pioneer are also restricting chokes at present to test for lower declines. It just seems that early on in the field development and technology curve they are all a bit unsure as to the exact best practice in terms of flows v declines. Hartleys mentioned the fact T2 and T3 had fraccing communications was apparent from the natural fracing in that region and this was a potential big positive for longevity of flows in the Longhorn acerage. This was apparnetly the words of the hilcorp geologist they toured with.

In terms of T3 are you saying they have an unnanounced problem or are you referring to the communication between the two wells.

With the Cr so heavily oversubscribed its likely some insto's will be lining up to get thier piece post CR. It certainly provides a buying opportunity tommorrow if the DJIA fall puts the fear back in town.

nioka said:

Agent, have you forgotten the sound of the elephant stampede. The AUT SP is around the same value that it was at the time that an elephants picture was posted on these threads by a contributor that had great faith in the Sugarloaf play.

I've spent some time recently going over old posts and there sure is a lot of them. Some I found very interesting in retrospect. I fail to understand why things have changed so dramatically for some contributors sentiment since the AWE bid for ADI while at the same time the good results keep coming. I am more enthuastic at this point of time than I have been at any other time in my association with the stock.

I remain disappointed with the rapid capitulation by the ADI directors (we was robbed) but I suggest it will be a different case with AUT. I can still hear the elephants. I can see that AUT will be cash flow positive in short time and earning considerable surplus funds. I'm happy to hold and still accumulating.

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adi was at about .23 b4 the awe bid of .40..

as you are well aware, the .42 final bid was the best one could get.. awe had it in the bag so to speak in the absence of a second bidder.. and we saw that only eka went close to the adi value with awe buying at .20... aut has not gone to the $1.10 region it should be when adi is at .42..

it seems to be sitting in the .80 region and has not transcended further for some months, with nothing holding it back from at least pegging up to the adi price.. so whats holding aut back??


imho adi would be in the mid .30's atm.. maybe creeping up a little.. if no awe bid was on the table

my sentiment on aut was buy from .40 to .88 which i did, and then i sold..

i waited for the cap raising, that was so obviously needed, and despite mentioning it and being berated for doing so, i am certain the sophisticated shares, some 46 million shares, need to be sold into the news ahead.. so its a busy time for the brokers to spruik it up their unsuspecting subscribers, and then i guess its up to the market to determine where it all ends post the exit of .75 crowd..

after that then i think the share will settle into some pattern thats understandable.. currently its been sitting in .80 region for a long time.. i am like nun, waiting for the signals to come..

but you have to weigh in the eka show is just starting and theres a chance of eka and aut merging or awe buying eka to firstly deal with also in the near term.

also on my mind is oil in the US, and the oil prices are not driven by fundamentals, but rather by funds..

as you know, i pushed the jvp hard on disclosure, and i am not keen on any oil share that is not disclosing critical well data that will help all understand how bad or good it is.. t2 was one heck of a mess, and i was impressed they got it to flow, but it sure needed a very very tight choke to get it to flow, but where it all ends up is yet to be determined, i am watching closely on that front.. but for aut it will be a costly mistake for them as the return on the well, the break even really is now a long long way into the future. if at all, but its up to how the declines go. and i am not sure how to read the t3 well now.. but i have my concerns.

as i say, all the best to the holders and you have to say the sellers are doing brilliantly..

Who knows.

This article from the Australian might spruik up a few bargain buyers this morning?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/junior-explorers-attract-interest-with-us-drill-stories/story-e6frg9ex-1225893643800

kennas said:

By all accounts here, it's no longer a 'multi bagger' as it has already made all the easy gains. 10c to 85c is obvioulsy amazing stuff. 85c to $1.20 (Hartleys and Euroz target) is very good, but probably doesn't require the ferver presented in some of the posting here.

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Cutting through the ferver and looking objectively at the FA/TA. The current assessment of this share is that it still has to break through the resistance level it is headbutting or it is likely to be overwhelmed by the global fiscal situation and fall back to lower support levels.
Good news and daily upbeat updates can only carry it so far. Eventually the market has to see cost effective production and sales on a scale that indicates a scale of return on investment that supports the share price.

Agentm said:

adi was at about .23 b4 the awe bid of .40..

as you are well aware, the .42 final bid was the best one could get.. awe had it in the bag so to speak in the absence of a second bidder.. and we saw that only eka went close to the adi value with awe buying at .20... aut has not gone to the $1.10 region it should be when adi is at .42..

it seems to be sitting in the .80 region and has not transcended further for some months, with nothing holding it back from at least pegging up to the adi price.. so whats holding aut back??


imho adi would be in the mid .30's atm.. maybe creeping up a little.. if no awe bid was on the table

my sentiment on aut was buy from .40 to .88 which i did, and then i sold..

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Yep thats fine

Agentm said:

i waited for the cap raising, that was so obviously needed, and despite mentioning it and being berated for doing so,

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Rubbish, i disagreed with you i didnt berate you. I was wrong and im man enough to admit it. If i offended you i apologise, im not here to offend. But the intenations of human speech are unavailable on the keyboard to adjust tone and perception by the reciever.

Im more concerned why you have changed your perspective so dramatically with no apparent reason. The quotes below highlight some dramatic and wild changes.

Agentm said:

i am certain the sophisticated shares, some 46 million shares, need to be sold into the news ahead.. so its a busy time for the brokers to spruik it up their unsuspecting subscribers, and then i guess its up to the market to determine where it all ends post the exit of .75 crowd..

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Their ususpecting subscribers?? Thats wierd coming from the biggest Eagleford promoter I know.

Agentm said:

hard to see any downside is there condog

all the cards have fallen into place now

unlike many other junior oil explorers, adi is in the box seat

all aboard for the sugarkane hilcorp express

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Agentm said:

hey south texas


jancha

adi easily is a $1 share and $1.80 is reported by hartleys

imho there is little research i am doing that is demonstrating the eagleford is all garbage and all operators and landmen are clambering over nothing..

aussie market yet to wake up on the play.. be good when it does..

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Strange how Hartleys valuations where spot on when you where in and now they "spruik it up their unsuspecting subscribers" ???

Yes there will be some selling pressure, as per post all CR's and SPP's. The big positive we have is the incredible value being added via drilling and fraccingg on a daily basis. Not everyone who purchased wants to sell or sell immediately, so 46Million imo is way over the top, perhaps 25M on various timelines.

Agentm said:

after that then i think the share will settle into some pattern thats understandable.. currently its been sitting in .80 region for a long time.. i am like nun, waiting for the signals to come..

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Agentm said:

also on my mind is oil in the US, and the oil prices are not driven by fundamentals, but rather by funds..

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Right now all the futures are up on thir shorter term futures and spots, so its a good outlook at present. Yes things change rapidly, but theres no pattenr of concern there at present.

Agentm said:

as you know, i pushed the jvp hard on disclosure, and i am not keen on any oil share that is not disclosing critical well data that will help all understand how bad or good it is..

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Agentm said:

obviously the operator wont allow weekly updates.. so news will be released, as it can be, and whenever

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In February you defended this action and where fine with it.

Agentm said:

ADI AUT and EKA now dominate the tipping comp this month

clearly the 40% rise is amongst these partners is no fluke, there is genuine across the board support for all three

rumours of a new rig, of kennedy doubling production, of ops on all sites really..

and with all that the speculation is rife on the share.

imho any positive announcements in the coming week will generate a lot of excitement and possibly see some healthy buying into all three partners..

best of luck to all holders

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In feb you thought news of Kennedy might be a justified price catalyst.

This is substantially better then any of the flows and information blackouts that ADI had while you where its biggest advocate and an Eagleford promoter in this thread. Its this sudden change with unjustified comments like this that we find unbelievable.

Agentm said:

t2 was one heck of a mess, and i was impressed they got it to flow, but it sure needed a very very tight choke to get it to flow, but where it all ends up is yet to be determined, i am watching closely on that front.. but for aut it will be a costly mistake for them as the return on the well, the break even really is now a long long way into the future. if at all, but its up to how the declines go. and i am not sure how to read the t3 well now.. but i have my concerns.

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Agentm said:

as i say, all the best to the holders and you have to say the sellers are doing brilliantly..

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How things change for no apparent reason.

Agentm said:

indicative opening says .25 and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..

thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report

i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..

any chartist want to venture a comment atm?

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Agentm said:

speculator
some are long term holders like myself

my plan is to reassess adi once the results come through. and i am sure that the conservative upside value of adi that hartleys put forward will come if the wells continue to produce as they have been.. for me that upside journey is exactly why i invested.. oddly for the upside not the downside

every investor has a different entry and exit strategy, some may share similar strategies.. we saw heavy selling by trojan s they exited mid 2009.. and speculating on what will happen in the future on the sp is just that.. speculation..

the way i view things is that people will invest at different times in a share as they see fit. some like me like the high risk high reward and invest and add as it suits.. others will wait for definitive news and invest on that plateau.. less risk reward..

great days ahead for those who understand what the potential of eagleford and sugarkane to be, and understand it to be a legitimate play.. and those understanding the economics of it will imho be well rewarded for waiting for the value to arrive in the share..

best of luck to all holders..

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Its thesee backflips that have us confused.

With the bad result for trading in the USA on Friday and the fall in the oil price, AUT will face a test today. At this stage it appears that the SP will not fall at open. The next step comes with the subrcription rate for the SPP. Will it be oversubscribed and scaled back?. If it is scaled back then it will establish a demand that will see my attitude was right.Personally I still can't see sales at 75c again. I believe that fundamentals will put technicals well into the shade.

Agentm said:

Kennedy

• The well is flowing from approximately 2,200 ft of stimulated Eagle Ford Shale with the remainder of the 4,000 ft horizontal liner isolated and not contributing.


Kennedy #1H

This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.

Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)

Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^

60 day gross production
Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^


Weston

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp Energy, that following a successful fracture stimulation of 3,000’ of horizontal section...

Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)
Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^


pretty spectacular imho

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I cant believe your saying T2 and T 1 are dissapointing on restricted chokes, when you pumped ADI results on Kennedy and Weston as "pretty spectacular imo".

Turnbull results are still unclear, but early indications imo on "highly restricted chokes" the same as Pioneer are trialing are very encouraging to say the least.

Turnbull #2H
Following completion of drilling operations at the Turnbull #3 well, production to sales commenced at the Turnbull #2 well on 3rd July 2010. The well was produced at a highly restricted rate for 6 days before being shut in. During that time the maximum rate observed over a 24 hours period was:-
Gas Production Rate
(mmscf/d)
Condensate Production Rate
(bbls/d)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate
(mmscfe/d)*
Turnbull #2H
1.12
526
7.71
* The equivalent gas rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.
Production will resume shortly at Turnbull #2 and whilst the above rate is in line with expectation, given the choke setting, an updated Initial Production rate will be provided then.

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This is better then both weston and Kennedy on a highly restricted choke. Not sure why the sudden change in quantification of whats spectacular, suddenly becomes dissapointing??

I reiterate :

right now its 39c below one analyst valuation and 48c below the other. Those are most likely 6 month targets looking at dec 2010, although Hartleys does call it both a valuation and a target.
Remeber the Hartely ones for ADI with 1.88 ones that where so strongly promoted as conservative.

Thats with 10-13 more wells predicted for 2010. If they then drill 2011 up to 37 wells for AUT, thats a increase from roughly 18 wells to roughly 55 wells at end of 2011. If the average of Hartleys and Euroz is an end of 2010 target of 1.28, then at end of 2011 its likely to be 55/18*1.28 = $3.91

$3.91 over current sp = 465% increase from todays price. This is hypothetical based on Hartleys figures and Euroz figures and projections. Seek advice and do not act on this.

Its 40% below prices established in recent weeks by Reliance and Pioneers deal.

And noe of this takes into account the likely reserves upgrade.

There is no assurance by me or ASF that this is true or will eventuate, its just a hypothetical analysis, based on quantification of broker opinions, so DYOR and seek expert advice always.

Refer ASX announcment 24th June 2010
Tranch 1 have been issued

Selling of insitutional investors has occured since then , yet still we hold our own.

If anything the ADI / AWE TO held us back and we failed to surge and apply the values of the Turnbulls.

There has been 14.5 million shares change hands since and including 25th June till last friday.

In the previous corresponding period there was also 14.5Million shares traded hands.

So there has been no mass sell off as claimed by some. And despite some predictions its most unlikely to occur if it hasnt already.

If these all knowing predatorial institutional investers where as bad as claims are made, they would have cashed in already for the high % gains in short time frames. Why wait till now and risk the loss some downrampers are projecting?