I don't think we need bother getting into specific points here. It's pretty clear you were extremely enthusiastic and positive about ADI until recently, and AUT too. I remember you congratulating me recently when I picked up AUT at 66c during one of the brief slumps, yet now you seem to be talking about a 40c bounce? Take a look at the ADI threads, your glowing works, frequent updates with pictures, excitment, etc. Now you have changed. It's not like I'm just imagining this change, it is there. I'm not saying it's bad or wrong, but it is there, it's unexplained, and curiously, you're denying it.
AWE wouldn't have paid 42c for ALL of ADI if they weren't very much convinced that it was worth substantially more than that. Before the 40c offer, ADI was trading well below 40c. Yes, I do think AUT is good value at 75c and yes, I would be very upset if I was forced to sell my holding for 75c. Dilution sucks, but I can buy my share in the SPP, so to some extent it's okay. Also, comparing a hostile take over price to a SPP price isn't exactly apples and apples. One pushes the price up, the other down (at least temporarily). One is an unnecessary evil, the other is a necessary thing. In any case, bringing this topic up doesn't seem relevant to the question you were responding to without answering (what caused your clear and sudden change in attitude towards the Texas oil?).
Answering a question with a question rather than an answer is the tactic used by folk such as politicians reluctant to reveal what's going on.
Thats what i was trying to say, but in an apparently offensive way. I didnt mean to be offensive, but yes this is what i meant 100%.
Your change of heart and sentiment is so apparnet, and in my opinion i cant find anything to justify it other then the fact you sold out of ADI and AUT.
All other factors look better then when you sold. The oil price is relatively similar, the post CR sentiment is excellent.
It baffles me??? Why the sudden and severe change. Whats the justification???
lol
"whats the justification??"
what are you on condog? you think i have to justify anything to you?
you seem to demand things condog.. your arrogance and attitude towards me is remarkable, its almost as if your berating me for looking at oil prices and aut and discussing it with slipperz..
condog, i dont have justify any reasons to you in any way in regards to discussing the price of oil with slipperz..
nulla i am thinking about the .40 bounce also, will it happen?
40c what an absolute load of !@$%!@#$!@ .
Clearly Nulla has little knowledge of the fundamentals and is commenting from a technical perspective which i commented against
Very very true. But this one has risen with value added by each new producing well.Some shares are like hot air balloons. They go up on hot air, then when it cools they come down fairly quickly. If this runs out of supporting hot air it could very easily test $0.40 again.
No doubt dry gas oversupply and problems appear to be developing. This in my opinion is why AUT is one of the most attractive in the entire Eagleford. They have the two highest IP's and 30 day flows in the entire eagleford and they are extremely liquid rich. Plus theres a clear liquids trend developing showing more liquids in the NW direction as pointed out in the Hartleys report. Longhorn is to the NW and is higher interest and makes up 65% of AUT interests. Liquids tend to track the oil price and supply demand characteristics. They are also easily transportable in eneryg dense liquid form.Supply & Demand. Production and Sales. From what I have read, demand is falling and there is an oversupply developing. This leaves production and sales?
From Hartleys report and of significant interest - discl - far less then 10% of entire article.
Hilcorp indicated that it may be possible that more wells are planned for the next 18 months than anticipated from a few weeks ago. The Joint Venture has 10-13 wells planned for the remainder of this calendar year and it is possible that 30-35 wells will be drilled next year on Aurora’s acreage.
Also
Aurora is well funded to contribute its share of the costs of the aggressive program. The acceleration of drilling has increased the net present value of the assets and shortened the timeframe to significant earnings and cashflow.
If we accelerate the drilling program, there are scenarios under which AUT may require a small amount of debt funding in H2 2011; however, this is more than offset by the uplift in net present value.
And
Hilcorp expects to have 3 rigs operational in 2011 and one full time frac crew. Each rig will be a Flex 3 build, capable of ~22 day spud to spud performance.
Hilcorp plans to drill 40-50 wells next year with AUT likely to participate in ~75% of these. The timing of drilling which area is largely dependent on lease expiry. This means that the majority of drilling this year will be focussed on the Sugarloaf AMI (5-7 wells), with 2-3 wells also likely on the Ipanema AMI. Next year, the majority of wells will be on the Longhorn AMI.
As previously mentioned, the Turnbull 1H well had a very high GOR. This meant that it had to be filed as an oil well. In order to hold acreage for oil fields in the area, a well must be drilled every 320 acres, as opposed to ~1,000 acres for a gas field. The implication of this is that it is likely that a significant portion of Longhorn will require 320 acre spacing of wells (we estimate 50%). This means more drilling in a short timeframe at Longhorn, which also is the area that we believe has the best economics and is Aurora’s largest exposure. If we accelerate the drilling program, there are scenarios under which AUT may require a small amount of debt funding in H2 2011; however, this is more than offset by the uplift in net present value.
This equates to around $11440 per gross acre or $25000+ per net acre. When you multiply that out by AUt net acerage and a 45% interest, If Reliance purchased a 45% interst in AUT at the same cost per acer it would cost them $125M ish.Mumbai: Reliance Industries (RIL) will invest $1.36 billion to acquire 45% interest in a joint venture for Eagle Ford shale acreage of Texas in the US, its second investment in a shale gas asset in three months.
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RIL will pay upfront $263 million in cash and the remaining in the form of subsidies for Pioneer and Newpek LLC’s future drilling expenses.
Pioneer will own 46%, Reliance will hold 45% and the others, the remaining 9% of the JV.
RIL will pay $1.315 billion for its implied share of 118,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford fields.
From Businessweek.comKKR went to work. Last year it paid about $350 million for a minority stake of East Resources, earning a quick profit of more than $1 billion when Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) bought most of the company's assets 11 months later. In June, KKR signed a deal with Hilcorp Energy, a closely held exploration and production company based in Houston, to develop the Eagle Ford formation southeast of San Antonio.
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