AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[trader8888]

Poverty, yes i have heard that AUT is selling on the LLS, LLS usually trades around a $15 premium to WTI so the potential increase in NPV's and revenues are massive.

Assasin or is it slick?? LOL. thanks for the wraps, My two biggest holdings are AUT and TXN at the moment also have a small amount in STX and EKA.

But agree with alot of people here that the european and US debt crisis is very worrying and could easily send the world into a prolonged recession in the coming year if things are not sorted out. With the recent market and oil recovery i am looking to sell risky assets and go into cash and gold. However i wont sell anyomre AUT as there are so many factors that could multiply their reserves and revenue, i also think they are currently trading at a very large discount to NPV.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

I also think they are currently trading at a very large discount to NPV.

I see this in just about every stock thread; all this is for a reason, and it won't change overnight "just because".

 

[alexc2005]

AEF up 4%, going to be a good day for AUT. I'm pissed i got out, but nothing wrong with taking a profit in these times.

 

[trader8888]

I see this in just about every stock thread; all this is for a reason, and it won't change overnight "just because".

I haven't seen you around the AUT thread before, The thing you have to understand is that with AUT the factors that can expotentially increase their NPV through reserves are numerous and unlike most other companies, AUT has the Funding and JV to capitalise on this. Most other companies will have a resource and NPV but the market discounts it because of funding uncertainties, unlikely that they will ever see production or it's just figures on paper and no hard data. What you see is what you get with AUT.

 

[rcm617]

Trader, I cant see in your calculation where you have accounted for royalties. Also I believe $85 for BOE might be a bit high when you use a conversion factor of 6 to 1.

 

[trader8888]

Trader, I cant see in your calculation where you have accounted for royalties. Also I believe $85 for BOE might be a bit high when you use a conversion factor of 6 to 1.

Rcm I have limited time and this graph I made up was in response to someone on HC, just to show the Amount of revenue that these wells produce and how economical they are, not really AUT specific.

Also IMO $85 per boe is fair, I'm not accounting for NGL stripping, also WTI currently at $97 a bbl and rumors That AUT is selling on the LLS market which trades a $15 premium to WTI, I think $85 is very fair.

I've noticed that you love to nit pick other people's posts rcm which is very easy, but I am yet to see anything of substance from you??

 

[rcm617]

Sorry if my reply offends, I appreciate the time and effort you and condog put into this stock, but I thought this forum was all about discussing a stock, not just the positives.
Anybody new to this stock might not know that there is a 25% royalty to pay to the landowners and thus invest on the basis of your figures on the payback period.
I'll concede you might be right with the price received, I always like to be conservative with figures when I dont know the full facts.

 

[bennywizard]

I presume you meant 2011? That is quite a big call to make, given the current situation in Europe.

Sorry, yes of course 2011 Must be living in the past....
Oil up again today to $97 Barrel and AUT shows a nice rise. With Oil at these levels AUT should be $4+ and I think it will be soon, (that's only a 17% rise from here) Easy for AUT with the end of year reserves that will be 5000, unless of course oil drops which AUT has no control over and then who knows?
The technical analysis of the stock shows its in great shape, for me its not the big issue, its OIL and currency!!! ...and the good thing is that long term at least, Oil seems to be on an upward trend.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

I haven't seen you around the AUT thread before

I was in AUT earlier this year, I've been watching it for around half a year, still paying close attention. Since AUT seems to have developed an uptrend over the last month, I am becoming again interested.

I understand your reasoning and I do not disagree - but what I suggest is that there are implicit major assumptions about the price of oil here. I am not speculating much on the price of oil though, so you may well be correct, I simply state that there are significant risks, as I can see the price of oil diving before the end of the year under various circumstances, or perhaps early next year.

To long AUT is to make a big call about the global economy and the near term resolutions of the EMU problems.

 

[bennywizard]

Oil up to $99 Barrel, if it stays at around this price $4 should be a piece of cake. fingers crossed

 

[estseon]

The (financial) EMU is long dead. The Euro is the endangered species. The 17 nations had perfectly viable economies (ok, perhaps not Greece) when they created the Euro and there is no reason to believe that they will not survive a retreat from the currency back into their own, former currencies.

The European banks are already starting to provide against Greek debt and they're not collapsing.

I don't see a collapse in global demand for oil. Economic activity certainly raises demand but don't forget China, India and other rising economies, which are still expanding and providing increased demand. The Saudis, who previously provided the production adjustment to stabilise prices, are using increasing amounts themselves for power generation - power for desalination plants and power for their infant mining industry.

Marathon has just demerged itself and has bet a significant slice of its future on this sweet spot in the EFS and BHP Billiton has invested heavily - 3x as much. The story convinced the banks that recently granted AUT is $300million facility.

There could well be price volatility but the price of oil has tried to tank several times over the last 12 months and it continues to rebound.

On the plus side, AUT's production will escalate. They are drilling Longhorn, which is more productive than Excelsior, and AUT has a WI more than 3x that is has in Excelsior.

Certainly there are significant risks and there is no telling what the buffoons in continental Europe will do next. But it is coming under control. Italy now has some leadership and the market has already absorbed the bad news relating to Greece. Portugal needs help and Ireland is receiving it (from the UK). There's nothing wrong with Ireland's economy. Nor is there much wrong with Spain's.

That's my view, any way.

I was in AUT earlier this year, I've been watching it for around half a year, still paying close attention. Since AUT seems to have developed an uptrend over the last month, I am becoming again interested.

I understand your reasoning and I do not disagree - but what I suggest is that there are implicit major assumptions about the price of oil here. I am not speculating much on the price of oil though, so you may well be correct, I simply state that there are significant risks, as I can see the price of oil diving before the end of the year under various circumstances, or perhaps early next year.

To long AUT is to make a big call about the global economy and the near term resolutions of the EMU problems.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Certainly there are significant risks and there is no telling what the buffoons in continental Europe will do next. But it is coming under control.

The contagion is spreading quickly, and bond yields are spiraling out of control. Italy is basically insolvent now. Perhaps most importantly, nothing at all has actually been fixed or even addressed. I cannot understand how you or anyone can possibly proclaim it is "coming under control".

The price of oil as always is driven by speculators and derivatives. Sure it is fairly good and stable now, but that can literally change overnight.


Like always there is risk.

 

[estseon]

Italy is far from insolvent. Its main problems derive from an inability to form a government. It now has one of sorts. Even apart from its substantial economy, it has enormous gas & oil reserves that have been barely tapped. Further, though the state has a high level of debt the private sector does not. But unless they do something about their lack of growth, tax evasion and the inability of its government to enforce even minor changes in policy, there is no confidence that the debt will ever be paid back. There is a lot of debt to be rolled over in the next 12 months and the market has no appetite for it.

I posted before the market stuck two fingers up at Germany's auction. The market has clearly had enough. It cannot evaluate the risk attaching to any of the Eurozone sovereign debt and so it won't buy. It was only one, small auction but the Eurozone states might be facing an investors' strike. That will force action.

I would agree that the volatility of the price of oil is driven by the futures market but to maintain levels of production, new fields need to be constantly developed. The balance of supply and demand on some projections is not looking too comfortable especially with China and India still expanding their economies.

We are not going to see the full benefits of the Longhorn development in terms of escalating cash flow and production until the Q1 2012 report is out so we have time for this mess to be sorted out.

The contagion is spreading quickly, and bond yields are spiraling out of control. Italy is basically insolvent now. Perhaps most importantly, nothing at all has actually been fixed or even addressed. I cannot understand how you or anyone can possibly proclaim it is "coming under control".

The price of oil as always is driven by speculators and derivatives. Sure it is fairly good and stable now, but that can literally change overnight.


Like always there is risk.

 

[kyrondgm]

Curious as to why discussion re Aurora has gone so quiet? Once one of the most discussed stocks on the market and 3 months without a new post!

There's been a fair bit of volatility recently, however no announcements to suggest why.

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Curious as to why discussion re Aurora has gone so quiet? Once one of the most discussed stocks on the market and 3 months without a new post!

Probably because it's gone nowhere in the last 3 month.

There's been a fair bit of volatility recently, however no announcements to suggest why.

Oil price has broken out of it's range.

 

[mr. jeff]

Bueller's sick.



It's self explanatory, but 3.50 is the magic number, and for me I don't like the amount of capital they are committed to this year. The price of gas hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and to add to that, it seems that the latest and greatest is shale over in Australia with stocks such as ICN, BPT, DLS, SXY, NSE, NWE etc.

I know little about all above mentioned stocks btw, but watch most fairly closely...

 

[Assasin]

Well Mr Jeff, it's jumped straight through 3.50.
Very impressive presentation just out to confirm how and why AUT dominates small/medium-cap oilers.

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Com...s/1904-80010641/InvestorPresentationMarch2012

Enjoy, it's a great read.

 

[notting]

Very impressive presentation just out to confirm how and why AUT dominates small/medium-cap oilers.

The dominator!!!

 

[mr. jeff]

Well Mr Jeff, it's jumped straight through 3.50.
Very impressive presentation just out to confirm how and why AUT dominates small/medium-cap oilers.

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Com...s/1904-80010641/InvestorPresentationMarch2012

Enjoy, it's a great read.

OK I will.



Massive effort to break that level. If I were looking to trade it, I would be concerned that it couldn't follow through. On the chart you can see that this has happened before.

AUT has exciting prospects still, yes, but it must confirm that this resistance is properly cleared. At this stage and on the back of a company presentation, I would comfortably say that it has not proved it yet, however I will watch closely as this may offer an entry to the next leg up shortly, so thanks for highlighting the break - I had not seen it!!

 

[trader8888]

OK I will.

View attachment 46391

Massive effort to break that level. If I were looking to trade it, I would be concerned that it couldn't follow through. On the chart you can see that this has happened before.

AUT has exciting prospects still, yes, but it must confirm that this resistance is properly cleared. At this stage and on the back of a company presentation, I would comfortably say that it has not proved it yet, however I will watch closely as this may offer an entry to the next leg up shortly, so thanks for highlighting the break - I had not seen it!!

You may also want to note that Aurora trades on the TSX which closed at $3.87 last trading session, which = AUT ~$3.70. AUT's all time high is $3.71, if general market allows i can see AUT smashing out a new all time high in the next week if not tomorrow.

Cheers