AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
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Great reserves announcement -- and AUT is down 8c on the day (so far) !! Seems like buy the rumour and sell the fact.
- Joined
- 1 October 2008
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Down 11c (so far) and just topped up @ $2.92.
Must agree just picked up 15000 at 2.92 myself, knowing my judgement someone will declare war somewhere else that supplies .00001 % of the worlds oil supply that will set off another round of speculation and we will stick all our money under the mattress again based on .......................... I am not giving them back.
Reserves & Value Upside
* Internal estimates other than for Aurora where NSAI estimates per
August 2010 report used
Acreage not included in reserve calculation
The NSAI reserve report is based on a diagrammatical 80 acre development plan. Where 80 acre
units cannot be drawn, eg close to the edge of acreage, that acreage is not included in the
calculation. 10-15% of Aurora’s acreage is not drilled by the assumed NSAI program. In practice
this is overcome via land trades and shared wells via unitisation with neighbours
Transition of Reserves
The 60 well program this year will shift the majority of the possible reserves into the proven and
probable category by year end.
Higher liquids cut
Initial wells are proving to have higher liquids
cuts which may increase the NPV’s per well.
Outperformance of Type Curves
IP rates are strong and the choking back of
the more recent wells, with the objective of
flattening decline reserves, could lead to
improved EURs and per well valuations.
Spacing
The current reserve report and drilling
inventory is based on 80 acre spacing and
competitors in the area are now looking at
development on 60 acre spacing. In other
more developed shale plays 40 acre spaces
are being used or tested.
Indicating Plenty More Upside IMO.
* Internal estimates other than for Aurora where NSAI estimates per
August 2010 report used
Acreage not included in reserve calculation
The NSAI reserve report is based on a diagrammatical 80 acre development plan. Where 80 acre
units cannot be drawn, eg close to the edge of acreage, that acreage is not included in the
calculation. 10-15% of Aurora’s acreage is not drilled by the assumed NSAI program. In practice
this is overcome via land trades and shared wells via unitisation with neighbours
Transition of Reserves
The 60 well program this year will shift the majority of the possible reserves into the proven and
probable category by year end.
Higher liquids cut
Initial wells are proving to have higher liquids
cuts which may increase the NPV’s per well.
Outperformance of Type Curves
IP rates are strong and the choking back of
the more recent wells, with the objective of
flattening decline reserves, could lead to
improved EURs and per well valuations.
Spacing
The current reserve report and drilling
inventory is based on 80 acre spacing and
competitors in the area are now looking at
development on 60 acre spacing. In other
more developed shale plays 40 acre spaces
are being used or tested.
Indicating Plenty More Upside IMO.
- Joined
- 19 January 2010
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When will we see another evaluation by Euroz condog?
- Joined
- 29 January 2010
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probably tomorrow or friday..
Today. It has a target price of $4.50 a share.
And of course the recommendation is to buy.
Oh so that target price in today's weekly was just taken from the last quarterly.
- Joined
- 29 January 2010
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Check your mails Condog..
So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated
simo644 at hotmail dot com
Thanks in advance!
- Joined
- 4 February 2011
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So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated
simo644 at hotmail dot com
Thanks in advance!
Can I have a copy mailed to me as well?
pberregi dot iext at gmail dot com
Thanks
- Joined
- 11 July 2010
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Mir could you please foward me a copy as well, cheers.
I reckon that AUT must rank as the most unexciting way of making 5x (or more) over the next 2 years.
Cashed up, zero exploration risk, zero political risk, local market, huge potential upside, $1bn company, 2 listings, a Board very active in marketing and a transparent business.
And now we have its brokers giving a +50% target price - I've lost count of the number of price targets that the company has crashed through.
Cashed up, zero exploration risk, zero political risk, local market, huge potential upside, $1bn company, 2 listings, a Board very active in marketing and a transparent business.
And now we have its brokers giving a +50% target price - I've lost count of the number of price targets that the company has crashed through.
