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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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Very profitable wells at these prices, also drmatically reduces well repayment times and NPV per well.

Also the last few 60 day flows have been significantly higher then the average. I had my model based on 450 average flow. Bumping that up to 500 and the condensate price up to $100 per boc, i get valuations north of $8 for end of 2011. Could be wrong , time will tell.

DYOR and seek good advice , if you can find it.
 
geelongfan said:
aut is running out of steam.. i think we will see it down at around 2.90 this week
Click to expand...

Hi GLF,

I think we need a bit of context.

Yes, 2.90 has been the support on five occasions so yes that is the logical level of support.

I also agree the SP is showing weakness.

However I also know that this is your first ever share purchase, and if your orginal purchase was at 3.22 then that you are currently sitting on a loss.

Please feel free to correct me and the forum if I happen to be wrong.

OB1
 


Just look at the market, this combined with a bit of disappopitment with the late reserves report and you get a mix of impatient and nervous sellers, IMO thats all we are seeing here. Once the updated reserves report is realeased all off this will be forgoton IMO.

For anyone that did'nt know, last reserves report have no 1P resrerves for Ipanema and very very small 2P and 3P reserves, so on that factor alone we should see a very nice rise in reserves.
 

Expecting another surge back to the $3.30 mark again very soon. If it doesn't happy this week I will be topping up again.. if it does I'll hold and wait for the next chance.
 
i fail to see your point? is it that people who are currently at a loss on a stock can't post on the forum?
yes i purchased at 3.22. i'm holding and intend to until after the next reserves report. i have purchased a few other stocks also since then, should i PM you on how they have gone as well? lol

if you want context go back and read what i said..

which was simply aut is showing signs of a downtrend over the coming week.. if you want even more context read my post a few days ago where i said that it may go down to 3.00 and that would make it a prime opportunity to top up..




 

My point is that as you are a self confessed 'noob' others readers need to bear this in mind.

Nothing more nothing less. Just context for others readers of the thread.

To avoid confusion perhaps in future you could provide your analysis as above, rather than posting commments such as 'running out of steam.'

I think your TA analysis above is more helpful than said comment.
 


While I agree that baseless "ZOMG DUMP YOUR INVESTMENT WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM" comments have no place in this forum I think the fact that he is a "self confessed noob" means we should be a tad less hostile haha

That said given the data on the reserves I don't think this fall in SP is such a concern, rather an opportunity to top up ^_^ I know I will especially if it falls below 3.
 
Its a period of consolidation. Do the sums on $100+ boc and better then expected 60 day flows which weve seen lately and $3 looks very very cheap either that or towards end of 2011, we are going to have a very very steep sp climb.

All opinion so DYOR. Ive got it valued at $7+ end of 2011, if oil stays up and results continue as we have seen lately. If you then add new Hi Tech frac method we can add a whole bunch more.
 
Things are bound to be twitchy with such potentially significant news just waiting to be released. The Board will have to get some control over NCAI or find a valuer that can deliver on time. AUT has said that future reports will be included in results announcements so they'll need to instil a bit of discipline into those guys.

The problem is that the current price is probably looking beyond the last valuation anyway. The market is aware of some of the variables and aware of some of the potential upgrade to NPV10 of 3P. What the market doesn't know is how much can be built into the valuation at this time.

And we have had mixed signals. On the one hand, EOG has been booking EURs for its wells near Longhorn about 20% higher than NCAI's 2010 figure but on the other AUT has warned not to expect significant upgrades at this time. Possibly, AUT was responding to the HiWay excitement.

The Board should have had a few choice words with CMG Securities as well - talking about the potential of 10 fold increase in reserves is a good way of ensuring a interesting start to trading on the TSX but seems to be a bit reckless at a time when they may have inside information and there is a valuation in progress.

One thing that they did say or suggest is that nothing may have been taken in for the overlying Austin Chalk reservoir. Only Weston is in the chalk. Kowalik 1 was but they re-drilled that. Kowalik 1 had good IPs but TCEI drilled it under-pressured, finished with slotted liner and failed to clean it up afterwards. So, there could be a lot to add at a later date with Hilcorp on the job but their main drilling at the moment seems to be aimed at securing the leases.
 
In regards to share price anyone seriously concerned about further turmoil in the Middle East? I haven't taken any profits along the way, (bought first little parcel @37c and topped up at SPP) I have full confidance in AUT but all this political unrest gives me the spooks (a little).
Would love to hear your opinions. Thank you in advance
 

great post..

i definitely don't think we will see anything in the reserves to do with the HiWay technology. the reserves report is only covering information till Dec 2010.
 
Condog and others cant wait to here your thoughts on the reserves report just announced
A further 60 wells planned during 2011, management anticipate the majority of the
possible reserves will be transferred into the 2P category by year end.

60 wells.. Sounds very impressive.
 
Oh Condog. How does something like this rate to bigger players such as Oil Search?
 
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