AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Sharejon · 28 February 2011

I thought the Production Update today was great, and here is why.

1. Very good declines for Kowalik and Urrutia
2. Good to see Direct Assets finally flowing, even if the flow-rate might seem disappointing. This was expected though really, considering how long it took for the repairs to be finalised.
3. It is good to see Hollman being fracced now and advancements to the drilling of Jordan as well.
4. We have received the information about the up and coming PMT and Buehring wells

The reserves upgrade will come, just be patient.

It was interesting to see that Gilley-1H was left out of the announcent. Maybe it was just because no progress has been made yet?

I think we should receive another sugarloaf update in 2 or so weeks time, with progress on Hollman, Jordan, PMT and Buehring so I expect we'll see something there about Gilley.

Magic Man · 28 February 2011

I was just watching the market and all stocks are showing inquiry. Did the Market close early today anyone?

geelongfan · 28 February 2011

Magic Man said:
I was just watching the market and all stocks are showing inquiry. Did the Market close early today anyone?

the asx is down.. i just called commsec cause i was trying to execute a buy on another stock and it didn't go through..

philly · 28 February 2011

geelongfan said:
the asx is down.. i just called commsec cause i was trying to execute a buy on another stock and it didn't go through..

Trading glitch stalls ASX February 28, 2011 - 4:18PM

Australia's sharemarket halted trading more than an hour early today because of a technical glitch involving its new trading system.

The market effectively froze at about 2.48pm, east coast summer time, when confirmation of some trades failed to be sent as normal, prompting authorities to close the market, said ASX spokesman Matthew Gibbs.

"We are working to rectify the problem," Mr Gibbs said, adding that the market may be reopened later today if time permits.

Magic Man · 28 February 2011

Hey guys.

Pretty unusual day today wth the asx closing early due to a technical glitch. I was looking forward to seeing AUT maybe run up a little towards the close after having a good opening and then stabalising for alot of the day. I think the market may have expected a little more with the news, but as someone has already said it was pretty good result. Looking frwd to the next announcement. As for the rest SEA started well but there must ahve been some serious profit taking for it to drop 4Cents, looking frwd to an update from them soon and HOG had a pretty good day, hopefully will break out in the near term, but looking for a little pullback to jump in again. TXN still suffering from the CR maybe. Thoughts? Hopefully a good day tomorrow!

estseon · 28 February 2011

Agentm said:
the only regional austin chalk wells i know that went horizontal is the butler well

by regional well i mean within a few miles..

drilled in 1991

the guys i know are related to the landowner, their recollection of that well is that it produced water. it was shut in

there are a few other a bit further away, north and east.. around falls, blackbrush calls it falls austin chalks.. fairly nice production there..

Extract from Empyrean 2010 Report and Accounts (page 9) re Weston:

"The operation involved fraccing the entire 3,000 ft of horizontal section in the “Upper” Austin Chalk. It was carried out in 13 separate stages with an isolation plug set between each stage interval.

During the first 5 days the average production rate measured 5.68 mmcfgpd and 414
bcpd equating to 12.1 mmcfgepd.

The initial 60 day average production rate was 11.4 mmcfgepd."

The 30 day average was 11.5 mmcfgepd (EME RNS 25 March 2010)

Decline from 30 day to 60 day: 1%

Decline from IP to 60 day average: 6%

Nice well!

condog · 28 February 2011

Good update today, extremely good declines imo. Very happy with AUT. Not happy with ASX, clsoing early and on the back of a speeding ticket. ##It happens, oh well.

trader8888 · 28 February 2011

condog said:
Good update today, extremely good declines imo. Very happy with AUT. Not happy with ASX, clsoing early and on the back of a speeding ticket. ##It happens, oh well.

Yeah its been a bit of a momentum killer, very good report out today noticed their using the 6:1 ratio now, which would have helped the declines figures.

Longhorn, Ipenema and excelsior production and operations update should be out soon as well. Im not to phased about waiting a few more weeks for the reserves upgrade.

Might be a tough day tomorrow though, europe getting hammered again, US futures down and OIL up.

condog · 1 March 2011

DJIA and Europe finished ok .

Looking at the volumes to me it looks like we cleared the early $3 mark of seller and weve hit the new resistance in the 20's which will soon dry up imo before we run again.
Clearly the reserve report will be a huge catalyst, but i reckon the sellers will dry up before the reserves report and we will be in the 40's or 50s in a week or two time.

I wouldnt put my house on it, but weve seen this repetitive post CR resistance several times ...

newry · 1 March 2011

condog said:
DJIA and Europe finished ok .

Looking at the volumes to me it looks like we cleared the early $3 mark of seller and weve hit the new resistance in the 20's which will soon dry up imo before we run again.
Clearly the reserve report will be a huge catalyst, but i reckon the sellers will dry up before the reserves report and we will be in the 40's or 50s in a week or two time.

I wouldnt put my house on it, but weve seen this repetitive post CR resistance several times ...

Nothing negative about this chart Condog and I concur completely.

geelongfan · 1 March 2011

my take is that the SP will drop down to around 3.10 over the next couple of weeks before ramping up again before the reserves.. could be a good time to top up if it dips anywhere from 3.00-3.10.. just my opinion i.e. guess

basilio · 1 March 2011

Have we ever wondered on the insights of industry share analysts and their strike rate.?

I was having a look at Huntleys take on HOG recently. All very good and positive. At the end of the report Huntley noted their position on many other oil and gas explorers. as well as mineral and industrial stock. Almost all were Buy, Hold or Speculative Buy.

The only one with a REDUCE tag was, yes, AUT. The report was dated Jan 11 2011 and AUT was $2.41 at that stage.

http://www.hawkleyoilandgas.com//me...s-research-note-104/Hawkley-research-note.pdf

tradefill · 1 March 2011

I have been following ASF threads for a while now and finally decided to create an account. I want to thank all the posters for their valuable input. Condog especially- your posts are very insightful. I was around for adi and hold aut, sea, hog, eka.
Hopefully the aut reserves report comes soon and we get another run!

trader8888 · 1 March 2011

basilio said:
Have we ever wondered on the insights of industry share analysts and their strike rate.?

I was having a look at Huntleys take on HOG recently. All very good and positive. At the end of the report Huntley noted their position on many other oil and gas explorers. as well as mineral and industrial stock. Almost all were Buy, Hold or Speculative Buy.

The only one with a REDUCE tag was, yes, AUT. The report was dated Jan 11 2011 and AUT was $2.41 at that stage.

http://www.hawkleyoilandgas.com//me...s-research-note-104/Hawkley-research-note.pdf

They are the only one with a reduce tag on AUT.

We have 3 other analysts covering AUT all with a buy recommendation-
EUROZ - $3.60 Valuation
GMP - $3.85 Valuation
COMMONWEALTH - $3.45 Valuation

Hartleys also had reduce on AUT at around $1.60 lol, Im glad i can think for myself.

estseon · 1 March 2011

EKA produced a decent presentation. We've got used to AUT saying that 3p reserves will be recategorised by the end of the year but the figures in EKA's presentation suggest that the 3p reserves for the Sugarloaf ami may be recategorised as 2p by the end of the month. Also, the Sugarloaf leases should be 70% held by production by the end of September.

condog · 1 March 2011

basilio said:
The only one with a REDUCE tag was, yes, AUT. The report was dated Jan 11 2011 and AUT was $2.41 at that stage.

Just goes to show you got to be careful following brokers blindly trusting them, thats a big opportunity cost to its customers a 50% increase when they are suggesting reduce. Poor form at best.

Its also a very good reason why its often best to use broker consensus or broker average. 3 recomending buys with valuations from $3.45 to $3.85, and one stating a reduce . That to me says its a buy with an average of $3.32

Then do your own valuations to confirm and bob's your uncle.

Sharejon · 2 March 2011

On page 11 it says "Likely that 3P reserves will be converted to 2P by years end" and "2P reserves anticipated to substantially increase in next reserves report".

A fantastic EKA presentation though, easily my favourite presentation from the company.

condog · 2 March 2011

International Energy Agency confirms peak oil was in 2006 - 3 hours ago

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) has reiterated its warning that the highpoint of conventional worldwide oil exploitation had been reached in 2006 and said that with its "World Energy Outlook 2010", the International Energy Agency (IEA) expressly endorsed this conclusion for the very first time, corroborating that the production of crude oil will never again achieve the 2006 level.
The agency, made up of 28 OECD countries, represents the governmental interests of the largest "Western" energy consuming nations.

In a comprehensive 2007 study, the Energy Watch Group's scientists explained why "after attaining this maximum production, there is a very high probability that in the coming twenty years – by 2030 – annual output of crude oil will halve."
From
http://www.tandlnews.com.au/2011/03...confirms-peak-oil-was-in-2006/IQBSBIVVOT.html

Looks to me as govts worldwide snooze on the implementation of renewable energy implementation, thers going to be one hell of an oil price spike at some point. Heavy users are going to have to continually purchase forward contracts, for decades into the future to ensure supply.

trader8888 · 2 March 2011

condog said:
International Energy Agency confirms peak oil was in 2006 - 3 hours ago

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) has reiterated its warning that the highpoint of conventional worldwide oil exploitation had been reached in 2006 and said that with its "World Energy Outlook 2010", the International Energy Agency (IEA) expressly endorsed this conclusion for the very first time, corroborating that the production of crude oil will never again achieve the 2006 level.
The agency, made up of 28 OECD countries, represents the governmental interests of the largest "Western" energy consuming nations.

In a comprehensive 2007 study, the Energy Watch Group's scientists explained why "after attaining this maximum production, there is a very high probability that in the coming twenty years – by 2030 – annual output of crude oil will halve."

From
http://www.tandlnews.com.au/2011/03...confirms-peak-oil-was-in-2006/IQBSBIVVOT.html

Looks to me as govts worldwide snooze on the implementation of renewable energy implementation, thers going to be one hell of an oil price spike at some point. Heavy users are going to have to continually purchase forward contracts, for decades into the future to ensure supply.

Yeah condog, their is no doubt that the price of oil and any form of energy for that matter are only heading one way. But the question is can the world survive on ever increasing energy prices, its getting very tough for families and businesses ATM.

Is something big going to happen that will kurb the growth of oil consumtion?? pretty worrying stuff

geelongfan · 2 March 2011

trader8888 said:
Is something big going to happen that will kurb the growth of oil consumtion?? pretty worrying stuff

not with energy demands expected to double by 2050.. that being said.. the increased consumption every year cannot solely keep up with more oil imo.. that's a big reason why so many companies (shell, exxon etc) have pumped billions into renewable resources.

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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