AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[prgudula]

It looks very much like a bullish engulfing candle on the charts today. I would suggest this is going to $3.60 bear minimum short term. Looking forward to the coming news.


Cheers

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

AUT.AX has closed below upper band by 20.2%. Bollinger Bands are 10% narrower than normal. The current width of the bands does not suggest anything about the future direction or movement of prices.

 

[condog]

B race yourselves for next week if you think today was good.

If those morons at the ASX can resist giving us speeding fines we are in for a huge week or two.

If they knew the first thing about the stock, perhaps they wouldnt need to issue speeding tickets.

Pisses you off when momentum is killed by some 16 year old lacky making a name for himself by issueing these things. grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

 

[Mister Mark]

Yes Condog i agree, but must say happy for another on Monday, then Tuesday etc.

Do we list for sure tonight on TSX? Thought there would have been an anouncement to say it was a certain.

Thank you again for your help and education

 

[condog]

Courtesy of Pramond

SUBJECT: Aurora Oil & Gas Limited – New Frac Technology Upside
IMPACT: Positive – Could improve EUR’s per well by at least 25%.
SUMMARY: Petrohawk Energy announced early success with a new frac technique within the Eagle Ford play. Schlumberger has developed a new stimulation technique called “HiWay” Flow-Channel Hydraulic Fracturing that fundamentally changes the way proppant fractures generate conductivity, allowing bigger flow channels and subsequently higher EUR’s per well in theory.
DETAILS:
· Schlumberger has spent the last seven years developing and testing this new technique on roughly 500 wellbores. Originally this technology was developed for tight reservoirs, but they are now expanding that to other types of formations including shale reservoirs. HiWay is a different delivery method and a different proppant. The combination of a degradable fiber (that breaks down at temperature and pressure in the reservoir) with sand pumped in a pulsing sequence in theory creates much higher conductivity in the reservoir.
· HiWay had never been pumped into a horizontal wellbore until Petrohawk tried it in the Eagle Ford shale play within the past four months (first job was pumped in October). Petrohawk has now completed between 10 to 12 wells with a HiWay frac on its Eagle Ford play, four of these wells now have meaningful production data that supports what looks like a significant increase in the potential EUR’s per well by at least 25%.
· From an Aurora perspective, Petrohawk plans to HiWay frac its first well at Black Hawk in mid-March. (Remember that the Black Hawk property is offsetting AUT’s acreage within the sweet spot).
· Petrohawk’s EUR’s at Black Hawk average 1.8 bcf in gas and 770,000 bbls of condensate (550,000 bbls) and other natural gas liquids (220,000 bbl), or 1,070,000 boe (6:1), and this forecast does not include the incremental upside for the HiWay fracs which could add another 25% to these estimates. Petrohawk’s current estimate of 1.07 mmboe is already a 37% premium to what Netherland Sewell is assuming for Aurora’s EUR’s of 780,000 boe on offsetting acreage on trend, before the potential uplift from the HiWay fracs. Assuming a 25% increase in the Petrohawk Black Hawk wells based on the HiWay fracs this would lead to EUR forecasts of 1,337,500 boe per well, which would be a 71% premium to what Aurora is currently assuming.
· We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora’s reserves based on higher EUR’s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base. Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand. This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford.
· Aurora is expected to start trading tomorrow on the TSX under the new symbol “AEF”.

This is huge for all the oilers, not just AUT. To get this news on top of the NSAI upgrade and the TSX listing is massive.

Makes me want to buy buy buy. Not just AUT, but also SEA, HOG and TXN.

25% upgrades in EUR's is massive from a technological advancement.

 

[PinguPingu]

Damn, should have bought all AUT instead of splitting it half-half with EKA (Thinking it has catching up to do). AUT's gone up 25% for me, whilst EKA down 6%. :bonk:

 

[prgudula]

Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (AEF)
Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=aef&locale=EN

 

[condog]

Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (AEF)
Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=aef&locale=EN

Right now at 8.30 pm friday night its 4.30 am in Toronto. So unless your a real night owl, we will awake to a hopefully nice stock price.

 

[estseon]

Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (AEF)
Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=aef&locale=EN

They don't commence trading until 01.30 Saturday for you guys.

That note posted by condog is supposed to be sourced from GMP securities, the TSX market-maker for AUT - source Mir.

It'll be interesting to see what happens on the TSX today.

Don't really understand why the TSX thinks that AUT will be traded today but AUT is unsure that the TSX will grant listing. One would hope that the market-maker knows, and it thinks that it will be trading the stock.

If you go to the Schlumberger site you'll see that they have achieved better than 25%. And it would seem that they can use pretty much the same equipment.

 

[condog]

We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora’s reserves based on higher EUR’s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base. Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand. This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford.

esteon that last paragraph is a pretty amazing read. Even if they are only half right, thats one hell of a big statement, that means a lot for AUT holders.

If they are apply a technological 25% increase late in that paragraph, ie after the chalks, the spacing, the sured up reserves, which is the way i would think it works. That makes that 25% technological improvement in EUR's one hell of an increase over what we currently have. Its more like a 125-250% increase imo in what we currently have based on the technology alone, if you apply it to all the increases in EUR's from the above. .

If their half right its a 125% increase base case. If they are correct in seeing a 10 fold increase then its a 250% increase just from the technology imo.
Judging by the comments and complete lack there of, i dont think many people realise how significant this is for all the shale oilers. But in particular for AUT.

 

[condog]

My appologies to both PRGudula and MIR, for confusion. MIR brought this knowledge to bear.

 

[estseon]

We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora’s reserves based on higher EUR’s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base. Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand. This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford.

esteon that last paragraph is a pretty amazing read. Even if they are only half right, thats one hell of a big statement, that means a lot for AUT holders.

If they are apply a technological 25% increase late in that paragraph, ie after the chalks, the spacing, the sured up reserves, which is the way i would think it works. That makes that 25% technological improvement in EUR's one hell of an increase over what we currently have. Its more like a 125-250% increase imo in what we currently have based on the technology alone, if you apply it to all the increases in EUR's from the above. .

If their half right its a 125% increase base case. If they are correct in seeing a 10 fold increase then its a 250% increase just from the technology imo.
Judging by the comments and complete lack there of, i dont think many people realise how significant this is for all the shale oilers. But in particular for AUT.

Condog, all the benefits compound up.

To me, the sticking point on "10 fold increase" is that TXN has said in its business plan that the standard expectation is 5% recovery of O&G in place. A "10 fold increase" would imply 50% recovery. I'm not saying that they can't do that (huge pressure in the rock itself so why not?) but it's not in my dreams yet.

But, a 2.5 x of NPV10 (taking into account oil price and reduced costs) does not require extreme assumptions on technology, especially for AUT. To assist, we have the factor highlighted by AUT that the maiden valuation was based on 85 - 90% of the acreage (boundaries and missing leases). AUT is expecting an improvement there. We have the money factors (20% increase in oil price?), we have the better than expected condensate ratio (they've mentioned this somewhere), we have a significantly ramped-up drilling schedule (reduces the discount for NPV calculations) and we have the skewing of AUT's reserves more towards oil through Excelsior. That's before looking at greater recovery through reduced production decline (using choked flow), reduced well spacing and the benefits that HiWay technology can provide.

GMP would look real idiots talking about "10 fold increases" just days before the release of the NCAI report if none of this was reflected in the valuation. GMP is the market-maker for AUT's stock trading on TSX: they're not any old firm trying to ramp up the stock.

So, will the Canadians try to jump on board before ASX open on Monday? There's no guarantee that there will be a release of that report (as promised) but they'll miss the early action if they wait to trade through the TSX on Monday. GMP's comments should have gingered them up a bit.

Tally Ho!

 

[mir]

this is the bit i find interesting "and from the uphole Austin Chalk" .so are they only producing from the eagle ford at the moment?

 

[Kremmen]

Right now at 8.30 pm friday night its 4.30 am in Toronto. So unless your a real night owl, we will awake to a hopefully nice stock price.

I'm a night owl.

AEF opened C$3.50, traded as low as $3.45. Now at its high so far of $3.60. (as of 10:28 AM EST)

 

[estseon]

I'm a night owl.

AEF opened C$3.50, traded as low as $3.45. Now at its high so far of $3.60. (as of 10:28 AM EST)

It'll be interesting to see the close. GMP securities will have to go into the ASX market on Monday and close its position and the price movement suggests net buying. The C$ and the A$ are almost par with the C$ just a cent stronger.

 

[MACCA350]

Am I reading this right?
The new Canadian shares(AEF) were subscribed at C$1.60
The new Canadian shares(AEF) are currently trading at C$3.60

Am I missing something or did the new shareholders just more than double their investment?

Cheers

 

[condog]

macca thats spot on.

$3.60 is a wonderful start for a foriegn unfamiliar stock.. Imagine what they woll pay when they truly understand and trust it.

 

[condog]

Condog, all the benefits compound up.

To me, the sticking point on "10 fold increase" is that TXN has said in its business plan that the standard expectation is 5% recovery of O&G in place. A "10 fold increase" would imply 50% recovery. I'm not saying that they can't do that (huge pressure in the rock itself so why not?) but it's not in my dreams yet.

But, a 2.5 x of NPV10 (taking into account oil price and reduced costs) does not require extreme assumptions on technology, especially for AUT.

That first reserves report was extremely conservative. Simply including acerage they didnt even count in the last statement would give a 100% increase. Then reducing well spacing gives another compound 100%, which now equates to a 400% increase. To then allow for the higher condensate ratios gives another say 25% comound increase, which is 25% of 400%. So we are now sitting on a 500% increase from the 2010 reserve.

Add to this 25% for the new fraccing technique and we are approaching 625% from the base case.

Chuck 25% compound on for reduced declines and we are around 750%.

Throw in an upgrade that counts the chalks and its not hard to see why they envisage a 10 fold increase.

Clearly it aint gunna happen over night, but just as certain imo, is it will happen over time that we easily surpass a 500% increase from our maiden reserves statement. And infact id put money imo on it reaching 750%+

 

[estseon]

Condog,

makes me a bit dizzy to think about it.

A very good start would be NPV10 $2.5bn for 3p.

Monday ASX open should be around $3.50. Otherwise, GMP will just soak up cheap shares to sell on the TSX later in the day.

Incredibly good day for all holders.

 

[gsnz1]

Condog,

makes me a bit dizzy to think about it.

A very good start would be NPV10 $2.5bn for 3p.

Monday ASX open should be around $3.50. Otherwise, GMP will just soak up cheap shares to sell on the TSX later in the day.

Incredibly good day for all holders.

Just trying to get my head round all these numbers . Mind boggling stuff.

How does the TSX listing work? GMP buy shares on ASX and sell them into TSX at a price deemed fair by the market in Australia thus creating more upward pressure on the stock price? Is this correct?

 

[geelongfan]

hey guys,

have another question

could someone explain how trading on the weekend works?
for instance, can i put a buy order in @ 3.26 now at AUT to top up?
how would i know if it has been successful since the market is closed?
i'm assuming you can't buy shares at all during the weekend but you can still put in orders? kinda confusedd.

thanks