AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[AngusSmart]

Huntleys put out a $2.53 target on AUT with a take profit. LMFAO fools. Obviously got no idea whats going to be driving the price in coming months.

looks like my stops are getting hit.. uh oh! better sell now!!

someone want some cheap shares?? i'll be offloading soon..

 

[AngusSmart]

On tiopic, nice finish to a bad start for the day.

P.s it was a great start.. and a bad day.. but an ok finish... i decided to top up some..

and if anyone knows someone at ig markets.. please tell them to look at sea.. they keep telling me its too volatile....... now isnt that what they make money off??

 

[philly]

Is anyone in this AUT thread familiar with the The Amazon prospect. Good consolidation day for AUT while SEA did the hard yards

Hey Magic Man, re Amazon prospect I provide the following info:
There are 3 ASX companies that have an interest in the Amazon - QPN, TNP & TSV
They are currently drilling a well.

The Amazon and Thames prospects are part of a regional exploration project in south Louisiana. Approximately 1,000 square miles of proprietary reprocessed Seitel 3D data has been completed by the Operator with integrated key well and production data obtained.

The Amazon prospect is a large scale, hanging wall fold with nearly 2,000 acres in fault dependent closure including a 400 acre faulted four‐way closure. The prospective reservoir interval is Oligocene sands which appear seismically very thick. Amazon has good AVO and Fluid Factor support. A 16,000 ft exploration test of this multi‐segment prospect is expected to spud in mid January, 2011. The test well will drill through the Oligocene target sands between 14,000 ft and 16,000 ft where it is expected to encounter abnormal reservoir pressure in the order of 11,000 psi.

The Thames Prospect is currently proposed to drill a 16,000ft exploration test well of this multi‐segment prospect on the flank of a vertical salt weld. The Thames prospect has stacked objectives in a fault bound block with one larger, deeper objective target interval providing large volume upside. The prospective reservoir interval is Oligocene ponded basin floor fan. The prospect has good AVO support. The Thames well is expected to spud in 2011 following the drilling and testing of the Amazon target reservoirs.

Partners are:Tango Petroleum Ltd (ASX:TNP) 17.50%, Quest Petroleum NL (ASX:QPN)
15%, Transerv Energy Ltd (ASX:TSV) 5% and Other Partners 62.50%

 

[condog]

The SEA debate rages on they are both two great companies imo. Im in AUt and not in SEa, but thats not by choice, its due to CGT problems.

AUT no probs, plenty more in it, in fact, just about to accellerate greatly. So long suckers who believe otherwise, just watch the next 3 months.

Angus you must be kidding, or you have totally mis interpreted whats about to happen imo.

Ps Hot copper mods suck. sorry couldnt resist, they are arseholes'
Hot copper is basically a ramp athon on 98% of threads anyway. ASF is so much a better forum.

 

[Magic Man]

I just noticed the sellers for AUT are well well up on the buyers.. Could this bring a pull back technically??

 

[condog]

I just noticed the sellers for AUT are well well up on the buyers.. Could this bring a pull back technically??

Doubt it. bound to be short periods of consolidation , followed by periods of growth imo. Too many tailwinds at present. Reserves report. 4th rig. well spacing? (thats the biggy.)

Magic yesterday i offloaded some, which bashed the sp most the arvo. No becuase i think its not going higher, i just had to for a tax reason and for a risk reduction reason. I dumped every time a big buyer appeared, which hammered it for a while. Still lots left in it and lots to come imo.

 

[Magic Man]

Thanks for that information Condog. i can understand u taking some profit when u have been in this one for so long. i jumped in around 1.60 and keen to stay in for atleast a year.

 

[trader8888]

Doubt it. bound to be short periods of consolidation , followed by periods of growth imo. Too many tailwinds at present. Reserves report. 4th rig. well spacing? (thats the biggy.)

Magic yesterday i offloaded some, which bashed the sp most the arvo. No becuase i think its not going higher, i just had to for a tax reason and for a risk reduction reason. I dumped every time a big buyer appeared, which hammered it for a while. Still lots left in it and lots to come imo.

Condog, if you dont mind me asking what % of your AUT holding did you sell, im coming up to my 12mt holding in April and was planning of selling %30 of my holding.

Hopefully SEA have'nt gone up to much by then, as i am holding very minimal stock in SEA ATM and will look to add once i sell AUT.

 

[condog]

Condog, if you dont mind me asking what % of your AUT holding did you sell, im coming up to my 12mt holding in April and was planning of selling %30 of my holding.

Hopefully SEA have'nt gone up to much by then, as i am holding very minimal stock in SEA ATM and will look to add once i sell AUT.

I was 100% in AUT. I sold 18% of my holding. I personally think its going higher, but with 100% in AUt, it was time to reduce my exposure. I would have stupidly done it ages ago except for the rediculous CGT rules in AUstralia.

Got more then my original purchase back so now the rest is on the market so to speak. No intentions of selling much more any time soon.

 

[condog]

In regard to the SEA / AUT debate. YEs both brilliant so far. SEA certainly got more room for growth based on mcap.

But realistically AUt next 3 months so far look better imo. Beyond that, we dont know yet.

Keep an eye on SSN and TXN as well. Right now TXN arguably imo is way way over priced and over bought, based on horendous ramping on AFs and HC. If however tXN can get its declines sorted and drill a second well with good flows and declines, and continue with productive olmos wells it may be worth a punt. But certainly not yet as imo its been way way over pumped. Thats not a popular belief, but its my opinion. SSN however is plodding along nicely and may have a lot of upside. DYOR and seek advice.

Values can change rapidly with development, so TXN, if they get it right could quickly go from imo way overpriced to underpriced with just a couple of good announcments.

 

[AngusSmart]

The SEA debate rages on they are both two great companies imo. Im in AUt and not in SEa, but thats not by choice, its due to CGT problems.

AUT no probs, plenty more in it, in fact, just about to accellerate greatly. So long suckers who believe otherwise, just watch the next 3 months.

Angus you must be kidding, or you have totally mis interpreted whats about to happen imo.

Ps Hot copper mods suck. sorry couldnt resist, they are arseholes'
Hot copper is basically a ramp athon on 98% of threads anyway. ASF is so much a better forum.

I guess you mean about my selling?? was sarcasm theres no way i am letting go again! infact i bought more today..

 

[Magic Man]

To all my fellow AUT holders. Anyone who is in the vicinity of Cyclone Yasi id like to say good luck and stay safe. Myself and BrightGreen are from Townsville and are patiently waiting to see what the cyclone is going to do next. The yard has been completely cleared and all rollerdoors and windows have been boarded and blocked as best we can. If anyone else here is in the danger zone we hope you stay safe and everything is okay.

Thanks, and thanks for the great information everyone has provided on this stock.
Cheers.

 

[poverty]

AUT now approved for commsec margin lending with a 35% single stock LVR

 

[condog]

To all my fellow AUT holders. Anyone who is in the vicinity of Cyclone Yasi id like to say good luck and stay safe. Myself and BrightGreen are from Townsville and are patiently waiting to see what the cyclone is going to do next. The yard has been completely cleared and all rollerdoors and windows have been boarded and blocked as best we can. If anyone else here is in the danger zone we hope you stay safe and everything is okay.

Thanks, and thanks for the great information everyone has provided on this stock.
Cheers.

I second that. All the best guys, have a safe one, be smart,. dont take any risks and see you on the other side, hopefully with minimal damage and loss.

 

[bennywizard]

AUT now approved for commsec margin lending with a 35% single stock LVR

Where did you hear this? I cant see it listed as having an LVR

 

[poverty]

Where did you hear this? I cant see it listed as having an LVR

When I log into comsec and view my margin account it lists the latest changes.

"Please note that Biota Holdings Ltd (BTA) has been capped with no further lending permitted.

Please note that Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT) has been approved for Margin Lending - Standard LVR of 35%

The LVRs of the following securities have been reduced - Clarius Group Ltd (CND) PLVR now 40% standard 35% and single stock portfolio 35%. IAG Finance NZ Notes (IANG) PLVR 75% Standard 70% & single stock portfolio 65%."

However when I plug a purchase into the what-if calculator it doesn't calculate with an LVR, puts me straight into margin call lol.

 

[bennywizard]

Where did you hear this? I cant see it listed as having an LVR

Just off the phone to comsec, I can confirm that as of today AUT has an LVR as a Single stock of 30%, standard 35% , Bonus LVR 40% (It wont show for up to 30 days, but it is active as of today)

 

[condog]

Cheers Newry.

On the consolidation i agree, the last couple of days is soaking up a lot of the sales volume at or above $3, creating a whole new support level, which is very healthy indeed. Nothing wrong with taking breathers along the way and concolidating, it inspires more confidence then a rapid rise or spike.

 

[estseon]

Doing some calcs and i get an EPS 0.41C per share. This is on 5000boepd, $90 oil 365days. This is going by the Euroz's report.

PE Ratio - $3.05 Divide 0.41 = 7.4

Currently trading at a PE of 7.

So condog im guessing your PE of 14 is of the expection of geetting around 10,000boepd by the end off 2011.

Please correct me if i have done something wrong.

There has been discussion before on whether a resource company should be valued by reference to reserves or to P/E. The view was the former. At peak production, a resource company valued on the basis of P/E could be valued at more than the NPV of reserves, which would not make a lot of sense. The oil giants that have a long record of maintaining reserves through additions at least matching production might be valued on P/E or dividend yield. But AUT is focussed and is currently de-risking and proving up the acreage. I'd have thought that valuation by reference to reserves would be the more likely at this stage.

But, if the earnings per share reach 41c and it is valued at P/E of 14, you would be looking at a share price of $5.74. If it is valued at, say, 10% discount to NPV10 reserves, you'd need 2P reserves of about $2.7bn (about 2x value in the presentation).

There are lots of factors that could increase the valuation - the company has said that some of the acreage (10 - 15% from memory) was not taken into account last time. The oil price is obviously higher. There's more experience with declines. The company has hinted about 60 acre spacings. The average liquids ratio may have increased. A lower discount rate may be applied to reflect reduced risk (doubtful). The rate of development has increased (which will improve NPV). But we might find it hard to get to $2.7bn. But, you never know... All of these factors compound up. I certainly intend to remain fully invested until the valuation is published.

 

[condog]

Ive valued this thing over and over using both reserves and discounted cash flow projections and they arent too dis-similar.

Personally i believe your best to use a consensus valuation, ie get as many as you can and use the average of all of them, as they all can arguably be right or wrong.

Your better to be roughly right then precisely wrong.

Right now ive just punched in my new numbers using the info from the latest preso.

I will list a few scenarios here:
1. Oil $90net, Gas $4.50 net , ave well 450boepd and 2mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $7
2 Oil $80net, Gas $4.00 net , ave well 450boepd and 2mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $5.60
3. Oil $90net, Gas $4.50 net , ave well 400boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $5.30
4. Oil $80net, Gas $4.00 net , ave well 400boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $4.20
5. Oil $75 net, Gas $3.50 net , ave well 450boepd and 2mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $4.80
6. Oil $75 net, Gas $3.50 net , ave well 400boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $3.50
7. Oil $80 net, Gas $4.00net , ave well 375boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $3.70

In the above cases, thats my opinion on value, it does not necesarily mean the market will agree.

The above is using a discount cash flow method, takes into account tax and royalties to 40%. Does not take into account currency

Note the above is only an opinion and for discussion. It may contain errors. DO NOT base decisions on it ever. Always Do Your Own Research and seek GOOD proffessional advice.