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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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Hey condog. Good to see your still posting over hear, after what those low lifes did to you over at HC. I share the same view as you, that a %50 decline rate in 30 days is not acceptable and sold out for a decent profit to wait and see the 60 day flow rates and the IP of the next well.

love your posts, keep up the good work!!
 
Quarterly out now

Some amazing predictions re reserves statemtn due out end of Feb. Read last few paragraphs on page 8 and start of page 9, where they are talking about potential EUR of 465Million boe per well over the life of the well. Those figures would be staggering.


On the not so good side, still repaying hilcorp and flows imo slightly lower then anticipated accross the entire acerage, but still very ver economical imo.

NSAI placed a huge value on the new acquisition
The
NPV(10) of Proved plus Probable plus Possible reserves is estimated to be approximately
US$431 million.
Click to expand...
. If thats the case then the extrapolation for mcap of AUT is approx 3x that which is around $1.3B imo.

All good, current mcap =$1.2B

I think john needs to be a bit more specific about the cash flow situation and exactly how close we are , given its delay again.
 

465 million barrels of oil equivalent per well? Staggering to say the least! You're talking something like four billion dollars per well? I assume that's a typo? Am I missing something? Knock a couple of zeroes off the end and it would sound more realistic, and still awesome... unless I'm missing something, which is possible.
 
Hilcorp have a few wells out on excelsior, and connoco have a whole bunch just below it.. if only we could get connocos well data. that would be great.. i am sure the new acreage is spot on however.. cant wait for that to be developed.. along with the rest, pretty happy with the report. however thought we would be getting a more income from oil..

Nice hard close today.. wish my buy at 2.96 got hit today.. missed out by a weeee bit..
 
rcm617 said:
Thats 465 thousand boe per well (465mboe). Nomenclature for million is mmboe.
Click to expand...

I looked at the report, yes, it was 465mboe. Something like 40 million dollars in oil per well. Still sounds pretty awesome! New 52 week high today, and a new all time high closing price.

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi
 
Apollogies for any confucion

mboe is thousand

mmboe is million

I read it as approx $46M per well minus tax royalties and opex. Thats a fantastic ROI per well. And remember by end of 2011 we will have around 80 wells that cost approx $560M, and assets with cash generation capacity of 80*$45M or so = $3.6B gross, cash genration. Lets say $1.8B after tax royalties and opex over about 7 years , equates to approx $260M p.a. income. net
give that a PE of 10-16 and you can see some basis to current and future valuations between $1.5B - $3B or so.
 

which well data do you need angussmart?

i can get you any well data for any well you like. i had no idea conoco were in the oil aspect of the play as yet.

excelsior acreages are in the oil region i believe, eog has had some amazing results in the region they have spent a lot of capital on well exploration development and design.

i have posted up the eog reports a while back and its impressive, their eur's are real impressive, no one is doubting their data thus far i see. (also similar to swifts) also not doubted interestingly!!

eog have nice theory on the oil aspect of the efs, the studies they have done are very clever, its clear there are good argument for the efs being a great play, and the oil window has been a long arduous road for eog with very impressive planning and development

i have see some stunning results in the oil window, and its obvious there are some real good regions. i am keeping a track of many of the new plays and players in the oil window..




sdajii


the efs is really kicking goals.. its been good for many operators that are developing the shale.. the anti efs antagonists are looking weaker and weaker as more and more operators come in and make great inroads into the very lucrative oil play..
 

I agree, the Eagleford shale is pretty yummy

I'm a very happy holder of EKA, AUT and TXN Started with ADI almost a year ago, haven't looked back, and am doing extremely well from it!
 


Condog, i think some of AUT's recent wells will surpass the EUR of 465,000boe per well - with
Rancho Grande doing - 134,115bbls in 197 days
Morgan Doing - 141,231bbls in 217 days


This is not including the gas
 
Doing some calcs and i get an EPS 0.41C per share. This is on 5000boepd, $90 oil 365days. This is going by the Euroz's report.

PE Ratio - $3.05 Divide 0.41 = 7.4

Currently trading at a PE of 7.

So condog im guessing your PE of 14 is of the expection of geetting around 10,000boepd by the end off 2011.

Please correct me if i have done something wrong.
 
How can i refuse

got a few wasnt sure what to grab but they are all somewhat in the direction of the new acreages..

i believe they are from a company connoco bought out a few years back, hopefully they are fairly new holes..??

 

I havent cross checked. But commenting on the 7.4 PE. Yeh youd expect a PE that low from an old technology limited growth stock, not a company thats set to rapidly grow. PE conservatively would be 10-12 for a growth stock and realisticly imo 14-16. Sure they can be way higher, but ???? value for money.
 
Huntleys put out a $2.53 target on AUT with a take profit. LMFAO fools. Obviously got no idea whats going to be driving the price in coming months.
 
Update on AUT/EKA relationship.
...............................................................................
 
Is anyone in this AUT thread familiar with the The Amazon prospect. Good consolidation day for AUT while SEA did the hard yards
 
Hey i wonder if Joe will let me bitch and moan about the Mods at HC. What a bunch of absolute dogs. They suspended me for 14 days for using the very same "f" word our little KRudd used when he was PM. By the way they gave me 2 days for saying KRudd.


Then when i wrote to them and asked them why they have now suspended me for 14 days, and asked them to remove two threads i regarded as slightly defamatory, they told me i was threatenming them and they permanetly suspended me.

So wont be on that forum anymore. So let me say HotCopper mods are dogs. Low life demi god dogs.

On tiopic, nice finish to a bad start for the day.
 
gee the mods at HC dont sound like very nice people.

On another note, what where Huntlys reasons for taking profit at the moment?? Their are two other brokers with valations of $3.60 and $3.85 at the moment. Lol i remember a broker saying (may have been hartleys) to reduce shares in AUT at $1.65 look where we are now LOL

Just shows you how good their research is, take them with a pinch of salt.
 

I personally wouldnt put pattersons in the same league as Euroz and most others.
No doubt some consolidation will have to happen before we go too far, but that reserves report could be amazing. Just think back to what the extra 5000 acres did. Theres got to be at least 50c to $1 in a reserves upgrade like we are expecting.

Hilcorp was careful imo to make sure they drilled in possible and probable sites to make them proven, so im expecting a significant upgrade.
 
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