AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Agentm]

Where do you see the SP eventually headed Condog? How much upside is there in this? Eyeing this one off but for instance PCL is only 3c at the moment, with a possibly very interesting seismic report due out any day now for (potentially) a 5-10 bagger very quickly, then lots more upside down the track...

atlas

i recommend you view the patterson report yourself and perhaps give us your opinion on it

oil shares can jump on reports, and in the case of the aut jvp and now with 2 in the AMI and one well in the extended acreages, once those wells are opened up a serious re rating will ensue

for me its a no brainer , with papa saying this is the biggest oil play in 40 years in the usa


"We believe the South Texas Eagle Ford horizontal crude oil play will prove to be one of the most significant United States oil discoveries in the past 40 years," said Papa.

now papa smurf invested massive capital into this, taking over 500,000 acres up in the oil play.. and eog up until yesterday refused to comment on their play, but i think if you look at their initial presentation just on the eagleford, you would have to say the jvp and AUT have some serious upside as no one has given them any credibility thus far despite having two seriously excellent result on two very short laterals

look forward to your thoughts on this

dyor and all imho

 

[Atlas79]

Shall certainly read more about this stock, thanks Condog for sharing your rough calcs (your disclaimer is noted, ty) and thanks too AgentM for the links.

 

[condog]

Atlas your welcome. Take a look back through this thread. I was right when i picked it months ago, thanks primarily to Agent putting it on my radar.

Ive researched this and have a very substantial holding both in dollars and %. ITs not something i do lightly and have done significant research on this stock.

I like it for a huge number of reasons similar to the other JVP's, but in particular, this one has better acerage , WI and is very well managed. But the single biggest factor is all those free carried wells.

One really nice thing that has happened since my purchase is Lonhorn looks clearly to be in the best part of the eagleford imo. In the liquid zone with very good results all around it. another huge + is EOG stating this week they are getting sustantial result fro th chalks which sit on top of the eagleford, effectivly giving each well double the capacity.

Enjoy your research and be sure to post your findings. sorry bout typos, puppy on lap.

 

[condog]

In the Haynesville Shale, Royal Dutch Shell signed a joint venture with EnCana (NYSE:ECA) to jointly develop acreage. The joint venture will operate as many as 25 rigs in 2010.

 

[nioka]

AUT certainly has been the little brother for ADI. Even on ASF with 5000 posts to only 184 on the AUT threads, probably because there was little difference in the stock and Agent held ADI and is the dominant poster. (The dominant poster because of his extensive research and the fact that he comes up with the news before any other source releases it).

However things are changing. Aurora has extensine areas leased and the new arrangement with Hillcorp is having those areas investigated. While ADI and AUT have only a 10% nett interest in the 20,000 acres of Sugarloaf, AUT has a bigger share of a bigger lease area.

I suggest that it is possible that AUT will become the big brother any time now. DYOR, I'm often wrong but the stock market seems to agree with me.

 

[condog]

Nioka Things will change now with AUT free carried wells progressing on Longhorn and Ipenema.

Even Agent owns AUT now.

On a bigger note the flows released are staggering, given the tiny fracs being done.

Kennedy #1H

This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.

Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)

Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^

60 day gross production
Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^


Weston

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp Energy, that following a successful fracture stimulation of 3,000’ of horizontal section...

Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)
Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^


This last data section is copied from Agents post in ADI thread.

Wonder if hilcorp might now consider trying a 24 - 32 stage frac some time soon. Similar to those being done in the Bakken. Perhaps the geology in the Eagleford doesnt lend itself to such huge fracs.

Irrespective Easely, Rancho, Morgan could turn out to be relative gold mines, and the high interest AUT longhorn 3wells may add rediculous cash to AUT coffers.

AUT = good imo D

 

[Agentm]

have to agree

with all these turnbull wells going in, you would have to say the value for the aut acreages will come into play soon

i have put a good size investment down and considering making a even larger stake in the very near future

look at the intensity of these permits hilcorp are putting out

these wells are taking less than 3 weeks to drill according to my calculations, amazing successes

hilcorp are absolutely impressing me no end atm

 

[Agentm]

this is the massive turnbull well being drilled by hilcorp

these rigs are getting through the whole completion in about 3 weeks, which as absolutely staggering..



this is what john stewart had to say and i agree with him here big time

Jon Stewart, Aurora Executive Chairman commented that “With the
operational progress reported earlier this week, Aurora will shortly have 4 new horizontal wells ready to be fracced in addition to our 2 existing wells on production. Our Operator is doing an outstanding job with the time to drill wells being dramatically reduced. Reduced drilling times translates to reduced costs and this will be extremely important in a project of this size. The production results from our first two wells support our contention that our acreage is amongst the best in what the industry believes to be the most economic shale play in the USA today.“

 

[Slipperz]

AUT has had the best week of the eagleford drillers with a steady eddie 0%. AZZ has suffered through B-29 selling down. US industrial production is rising, gas prices are inching up, completed well flow rates are excellent, Hillcorp is drilling away with awesome efficiency, wells are backing up for fracccing and the share price is going nowhere.
Am I missing something here or is everyone else?

 

[condog]

Thanks Agent for your update

Am I missing something here or is everyone else?

No consolidation, waiting on frac jobs and more data. Certainly looking cheaper and cheaper imo and a great accumulation opportunity.
The more we get progress and the longer sp stays subdued the better, as it provides imo (but this is not advice or reccomendation) a very opportunistic buying opportunity.

 

[Slipperz]

Thanks Agent for your update



No consolidation, waiting on frac jobs and more data. Certainly looking cheaper and cheaper imo and a great accumulation opportunity.
The more we get progress and the longer sp stays subdued the better, as it provides imo (but this is not advice or reccomendation) a very opportunistic buying opportunity.

I am already overweight on AUT. Moved out of AZZ a fortnight back as it was looking a bit overcooked and quite honestly there is more happening in terms of drilling, and at a faster pace with Hillcorp's involvement for AUT.

Might take a few out of the christmas stocking for some champagne :alcohol:

 

[condog]

Your timing was spot on. I did a similar thing a few months ago with AZZ holdings to AUt and in that time have seen AZZ remain relatively stagnant whilst my AUt holdings in the same time are up over 65%

Not much to regret there.

I think your spot on with your assessment of Hilcorps involvement causing a massive accelleration both in real and relative terms. That graph will look even more interesting in 4-6 months time once some more fracs are done. There will be a few JVP share holders kicking themselves for not having predicted whats clearly transpiring right now.

Is it not crystal clear that Hilcorp has only just begun, it has casued a doubling in ADI price, AUt price.


AUT is about to be free carried for almost double that relative value that Hilcorp has already added.

Do the maths. It doesnt take einstien to see whats happeing and about to happen imo.

whilst this is in no way a reccomendation its aimed at getting investors to question thier own strategies. If you owned ADI or EKA right now, its because you believe hilcorp JV will bring value theres no other reason. Thus if thats the overwhelming logic what on earth is going to happen now with these extra free carried wells for AUT.

If i held ADI , EKA i know what id be doing right now. In 6 months the story might be dramatically different, but right now AUT looks good imo.

I picked it a few months ago against the grain and right now its with the grain and a no brainer imo.

Pattersons and Hartleys have both given fantastic reports on the JVP's and valued them significantly above current prices. the unrisked valuations are looking better and better , sooner and sooner imo with the way hilcorp is proceeding.

 

[condog]

Hilcorp has applications in for all three turnbul wells. My assumption is they are on Longhorn, but cannot be certain on that.

Things are progressing very well.

If AUT almost doubled in price on Weston, and Kennedy results, one wonders where we will be, when Rancho, Easley, Morgan, Kowalick (fix or redrill) and the three turnbulls are done.

Timeline my guess is Morgan, Rancho, Easley, T1, T2, T3 take 45 days each on average. Gives 9 months or less and we have hopefully 6 more highly productive wells.

At that rate hopefully at least 3 times current sp and then some. Many ways to do the cals, but thats it in a nutshell.

 

[Agentm]

Hilcorp has applications in for all three turnbul wells. My assumption is they are on Longhorn, but cannot be certain on that.

Things are progressing very well.

If AUT almost doubled in price on Weston, and Kennedy results, one wonders where we will be, when Rancho, Easley, Morgan, Kowalick (fix or redrill) and the three turnbulls are done.

Timeline my guess is Morgan, Rancho, Easley, T1, T2, T3 take 45 days each on average. Gives 9 months or less and we have hopefully 6 more highly productive wells.

At that rate hopefully at least 3 times current sp and then some. Many ways to do the cals, but thats it in a nutshell.

View attachment 36773

a few polite corrections

hilcorp are doing a smashing job, drilling in karnes and now in gonzales

in terms of timing,, 19 days per well condog..

in terms of wells being drilled..

turnbull 1 is well advanced nearly complete

turnbull 2 has a rig on it

btw there are frac crews all over the place atm on the ami

 

[condog]

being conservative in my guestimates due to ramp allegations elsewhere.

Points taken, at 45 days allows for drill and frac on average ???

What im really eluding to is big multiples in short spaces of time.

i had heard fracs where on site, but all unconfirmed till you get me some photos. lol

On another note some nice updates in the preso for new investors and conferences.

Not as up to date as we need, but it will market it nicely and add value.

 

[condog]

Some wonderful slides in yesterdays new preso that paint a fantastic story going forward for AUT. Nothing too new to those with fingers on the pulse, but great update that might see more brokers able to sell it to clients.





I particularly like this one below as it highlights what we have been trying to identify . We knew the majority of AUt was in the condensate zone, but it was unclear how much of longhorn is / was in the oil zone.

This paints an amazing story below. If AUt rocked on the back of Kennedy and Weston and has subsequently only really increased less then 10% on the back of everything else, What do you think might happen on the back of 7 more fracs, plus the Kowalick re-drill or fix up. imo we are looking at a minimum of a 4 multiple of the growth from 26c to 50c whcih equates to around a $1 sp growth.

There was another chart i will get and attach for the frac times which showes the drilling in less then 20 days now under hilcorp. Fracs then take about 3 weeks for IP and & weeks to get 30 day averages. But they are from a ghant chart perspective simultaneous beyond 20 days per rig. So potentially these 8 wells many of which are drilled could all be done in a matter of around 3 months depending on how many frac crews they get. Conservatively lets allow 6plus months. Thats a wonderful potential sp multiple.




Turnbull 3 has also been approved.
IMO - AUT is derisking with every development and is now the most likely upside, highest multiple and lowest risk of all my small cap stocks. I took the opportunity to sell many stagnent stocks in the past few days and top up on AUT.

 

[condog]

Drilling times mentioned above. Easely was delayed hence big blue line, but look at the impressive drill times being achieved. Note also 4 fracs sitting there waiting to be done = imminent sp increase in my opinion.

 

[Agentm]

Drilling times mentioned above. Easely was delayed hence big blue line, but look at the impressive drill times being achieved. Note also 4 fracs sitting there waiting to be done = imminent sp increase in my opinion.

View attachment 36788

your forgetting a very important detail which i have been pointing out, the turnbull 2 site has a massive rig sitting on it, and imho they dont place rigs on sites unless its going to do something,,

add turnbull 2 to the list please..

aut has easley, morgan, rancho grande, turnbull 1 and turnbull 2

thats 5 wells about to come on line..

and consider also there is a permit for turnbull 3 there also, should that be a longhorn well also then that rig needs only move 100 feet and drill that one..

imho aut and the entire jvp are way under the radar right now

 

[condog]

Agent is your camera broken?

I was hoping for some pics soon of frac crews all over morgan and easily.

 

[Miner]

Agent is your camera broken?

I was hoping for some pics soon of frac crews all over morgan and easily.

Condog
I hope you are following world news as well in addition to normal passion for stocks.

With volcano ashes flights to Europe and other places are grounded.

As a side effect I think Agentm's spy plane or satelite with cameras are working over time else where than Eagleford for a change