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Australian Employment Stats

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Every month, the ABS publishes Employment data with various trend, change, and other related information. I could not find an ASF topic dedicated to discuss those figures in a broader economic context.
If anyone is interested, please join in.

Today's data for the month of March can be found at -
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

What I find interesting:
  • Employment increased 7,700 to 11,910,000.
  • Unemployment decreased 2,800 to 729,600.
  • Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 65.0%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 1.8 million hours to 1,643.7 million hours.
Click to expand...
Specifically: Number of jobs went up a little, but hours worked declined. That means the quality of work and employees' take-home pay must have deteriorated. Good for business in the short-term, but what does it do for the average family's ability to pay bills and keep up spending?
 
Hi Pixel thanks for starting up this thread.

I traded the news in this instance; expecting a bullish response for the AUDUSD. Initially it was a bullish response but quickly traded to where it was before the announcement. I broke even in this case, a 0.39 profit lol. Your explanation tells me why: on the top level it seems like a good result but once you get into the nitty gritty it's just ok. I do however think that no interest rate cuts are on the table within the foreseeable future.

I am starting to see a trend here and around the world that jobs are becoming less and less full time with more and more jobs becoming part time and contract based. As evidenced by the reduction in monthly hours worked.

Can someone confirm the current statistic on being "employed"? If you work XX hours within the month you are considered "employed" in regards to the top level statistic; but the reality is quite different. I think they changed this definition within the last 6 months.
 
from memory you are employed if you worked one hour or more a week...if someone can confirm; these results are not great at all....
 
pixel said:
What I find interesting:
Specifically: Number of jobs went up a little, but hours worked declined. That means the quality of work and employees' take-home pay must have deteriorated. Good for business in the short-term, but what does it do for the average family's ability to pay bills and keep up spending?
Click to expand...

Compared to to 12 months ago the hours worked was down 2.5 hours per worker. Think nearly 12 million workers by $45 and the loss of income really starts to add up.

Considering we're now in our 6th year of real national disposable income falling, the ability of households to continue to support some of the highest property prices in the world is getting rather stressful.
 
qldfrog said:
from memory you are employed if you worked one hour or more a week...if someone can confirm; these results are not great at all....
Click to expand...
I think it was an Monday's Q&A that a member of the panel quoted one hour a month means you're no longer unemployed.
That may be okay if you're a Company Director and rake in ten Grand an hour. But that's not the norm.
 
pixel said:
I think it was an Monday's Q&A that a member of the panel quoted one hour a month means you're no longer unemployed.
That may be okay if you're a Company Director and rake in ten Grand an hour. But that's not the norm.
Click to expand...

It may also be worth noting that unpaid work (i.e. voluntary) is also counted as employment.
 
cynic said:
It may also be worth noting that unpaid work (i.e. voluntary) is also counted as employment.
Click to expand...

Not sure about how we define it here, but the US define those who give up on finding work as not unemployed. They're not employed, lost hope of finding work... but they are not unemployed?

I guess that's part of the reason the GFC is call the Great Recession instead of the Great Depression (Part 2). When so many are depressed and gave up, well they aren't part of the stats anymore.
 
sydboy007 said:
Compared to to 12 months ago the hours worked was down 2.5 hours per worker. Think nearly 12 million workers by $45 and the loss of income really starts to add up.

Considering we're now in our 6th year of real national disposable income falling, the ability of households to continue to support some of the highest property prices in the world is getting rather stressful.
Click to expand...

Great to see you back syd, the property price bubble in Perth is well and truly burst, it is going down like a bag of strong smelling stuff.
The guy next door is in a flat spin, he has sub divided and is building on the back, now he is $hitting himself he is going to lose money.
He is trying to cut costs, but the subbies are doing crap jobs, it is going to end up in tears, sad really.
Everyone gets caught up in the euphoria of a never ending bubble.
 
sptrawler said:
Great to see you back syd, the property price bubble in Perth is well and truly burst, it is going down like a bag of strong smelling stuff.
The guy next door is in a flat spin, he has sub divided and is building on the back, now he is $hitting himself he is going to lose money.
He is trying to cut costs, but the subbies are doing crap jobs, it is going to end up in tears, sad really.
Everyone gets caught up in the euphoria of a never ending bubble.
Click to expand...

Buying opportunity for you soon, maybe? If you can't lend a helping hand to neighbour in need, what good are we right? :D
 
CiyGW3pUYAA0Jkq.jpg
Peter Power ︎⚑ EIU ‏@PeterXPower

#Aus labour force #TREND #ABS #ausbiz #auspol

CiyGVsgUoAA3LME.jpg

Callam Pickering ‏@CallamPickering

The trend unemployment rate dips to 5.8 per cent on lower participation #ausbiz #auspol
 
from Todays OZ
Australia’s labour force data have smashed market estimates again.

The unemployment rate dived to 4.9% in June from 5.1% in May.

That’s the lowest jobless rate since in the past decade.

Employment rose 29,100 vs 20,000 expected.

Full-time jobs surged 51,600 which is encouraging.

Part-time jobs fell by 22,500.

The participation rate was 66.2% as expected.
Click to expand...
The really good part about the above is that part time jobs fell and full time jobs leapt.
So, how long will it be before the RBA have to walk back their no interrest rate rises till late 2023?
The inflation expectations are being built in, and the banks will start pricing rates as they see fit and basically take it out of the RBA hands.
Mick
 
From ABC News

Todays announcement of a rise in the October unemployment rate to 5.2% came as somewhat of a surprise after the September figures came in at 4.6%.

It was no surprise that economists got it wrong in that they expected at least 50,000 new Jobs rather than the 46,000 jobs loss that was recorded by the ABS.
The surprise fort me is that the mainstream media take any notice whatsoever of the ABS figures.
The statisticians will tell you that their phone sampling methodology is correct, and it should give an accurate reflection of what is really happening.
We hear of businesses that cannot get workers - hospitality industry, the transport industry, construction to name a few.
And yet the figures say we lost 50,000 jobs in the month, despite so many businesses reopening.
What I suspect is happening, is that now that employees have gone off the various support structures provided to employees, some are just not going back to work at all. Some have quit their jobs in the expectation that they will be able to demand higher wages in a labour market desperate for workers.
Time will tell.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
What I suspect is happening, is that now that employees have gone off the various support structures provided to employees, some are just not going back to work at all. Some have quit their jobs in the expectation that they will be able to demand higher wages in a labour market desperate for workers.
Click to expand...
JobKeeper ended 6 months ago, so what other support structures held up employment levels afterwards?
Total hours worked was relatively unchanged, despite job losses, so either more overtime was worked or part time/casuals got more hours (or a combination).
Anecdotally, a relative went from full time work non-metro to casual with another employer in the city in October and her total hours worked remained the same.
Given the participation rate increased, more people are now looking for work, commensurate with online vacancy numbers being their highest since 2008:
1636599800845.png
October data could be an aberration, although with little change in total hours worked it certainly looks like something else is in play.
 
rederob said:
JobKeeper ended 6 months ago, so what other support structures held up employment levels afterwards?
Click to expand...
My son who runs a pub had support for his staff during the latest lockdown in regional Vic.
It only ended when the lockdown ceased a few weeks ago.
Don't know if it was state or Federal.
rederob said:
Total hours worked was relatively unchanged, despite job losses, so either more overtime was worked or part time/casuals got more hours (or a combination).
Anecdotally, a relative went from full time work non-metro to casual with another employer in the city in October and her total hours worked remained the same.
Given the participation rate increased, more people are now looking for work, commensurate with online vacancy numbers being their highest since 2008:
Click to expand...
So more people are looking work, the online vacancy rate has gone up, one can only assume there is a significant lag between the ABS stats and reality. Or ic could also be that the methodology is flawed.
rederob said:
View attachment 132723
October data could be an aberration, although with little change in total hours worked it certainly looks like something else is in play.
Click to expand...
 
I assume you good people know the statistics measure was designed for the use of employers and not potential employees i.e. how many available bodies are there to fill positions. Look at them from that perspective and it starts to make some sense.
 
mullokintyre said:
My son who runs a pub had support for his staff during the latest lockdown in regional Vic.
It only ended when the lockdown ceased a few weeks ago.
Click to expand...
Victoria did account for the bulk of job losses and increases in unemployed. On the other hand, Victoria also experienced a 15% increase in online vacancies.
mullokintyre said:
So more people are looking work, the online vacancy rate has gone up, one can only assume there is a significant lag between the ABS stats and reality. Or ic could also be that the methodology is flawed.
Click to expand...
The ABS data uses a snapshot from the week prior to contact while online vacancy figures are based on a total count for the same month, so there is usually a significant overlap. However, in this case it is likely that the progressive easing of covid restrictions from the second week of October (compared to NSW 's earlier move) saw a good vacancy number for Victoria that the participation rate was unable to capture.
 
From ABC News
Australia's jobs market has continued to strengthen, with unemployment falling to an equal record low of 4 per cent.

Key points:​

  • The unemployment rate is the equal lowest level it has been since the ABS monthly labour force survey started in 1978
  • Participation is at a record high, with 66.4 per cent of Australians aged over 15 either in work or looking for it
  • Hours worked rebounded in February, but absences due to illness were still almost double usual levels due to Omicron

The last time the jobless rate was this low was August 2008, and it has never been lower in ABS data going back to 1978.

Between World War II and the 1970s, unemployment in Australia was more typically around 2 per cent, but those figures pre-date the current ABS labour force survey.

The monthly Bureau of Statistics figures estimated that 77,400 extra people were employed in February, taking unemployment down from 4.2 to 4 per cent.

Hours worked rebounded 8.9 per cent, recovering from the COVID-19 Omicron wave of absences that saw working hours plummet in January.

But the ABS head of labour statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, said the effects of Omicron were still evident.

"While hours worked rebounded in February, they were still around 0.5 per cent below December, and also still slightly below (0.2 per cent) the pre-Delta period high of May 2021, reflecting a second month of impacts associated with the Omicron variant," he noted.
Click to expand...
So although we now have levels of unemployment so low it almost can be termed full employment, the hours worked per employee is still not back to pre covid levels.
Something is going to have to give here.
The pool of potential employees is getting smaller, the hours of work they are willing to engage is becoming less, but the demand for employees is still there.
Wages are going to have to rise well above the levels of welfare for those at the bottom to consider working more hours.
It may be that the levels of real inflation rather than the useless CPI figures may give them a push into the workforce.
these figures will also give the coalition something to crow about come election time.
Somehow I doubt it will be sufficient to save them
Mick
 
his best chance is that the ALP change leadership ( again ) in the election run up , although i have no idea who the ALP would select if they replace Albo
 
divs4ever said:
his best chance is that the ALP change leadership ( again ) in the election run up , although i have no idea who the ALP would select if they replace Albo
Click to expand...
Why would they change leaders now?
He has a slightly higher approval rating than Scomo.
Thy have the same level of dissatisfaction.
Mick
 
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