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Australian Economic Analysis


Aaaah. I see. Domino Theory...

KRudd certainly knows his parlour games.
 
ANZ job ads for December out today, the trend is clearly pointing to rising unemployment in Australia. Below are comments from the report from ANZ's Australia head of economics. Click this link for the full report.

 

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Interesting 6% has been thrown up as a target by year end

Mining is getting knocked around a bit here in the West Rio to announce job cuts this week, hope is gold mines may take up a little of the slack
 
Yeah? I say property prices will continue to rise because unemployment does not matter because we still have a under supply and lower interest rates!
 

Whilst GDP shouldn't be taken as the sole measure of recession, today's GDP number backs up an already deteriorating Australian economy. Year over Year GDP growth of 0.3% is the worst since 4Q1991, which surprise surprise, was just after the last recession finished.

The question is not whether Australia will avoid a recession but rather how long and severe will it be?
 

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A recession is a pause in an otherwise healthy, growing economy.

A depression is when the economy drops dead. And when it drops dead, the assets that people owned - stocks, bonds, houses, derivatives, debt - are called into question.

By Bill Bonner

So do everybody still think we will be in only a recession?

When the de-leveraging process accelerates here in Australia, we may then see a depression.
 
So do everybody still think we will be in only a recession?

When the de-leveraging process accelerates here in Australia, we may then see a depression.

It is quite funny how when you talk to people (who don't follow the markets) and you suggest how bad things are going to be, they think you are absolutely crazy. Are we the crazy ones? Or are we watching the big event unfold, and those others are just too silly to listen? Or perhaps they are so deep in debt, they can't afford to listen to you?

I did tell some people about 18 months ago that we were headed for a global recession that will follow with the US being insolvent. They looked at me as if I was joking. I said I wasn't. Now they wished they had listened. Not that I can talk, I don't even listen to my own advice when it comes to shares. I am still a fundamental investor. Mind you, I am doing okay.
 
Employment was basically flat In February after flat results in January and December. The unemployment rate jumped in large part due to a jump in the number of people looking for work. However, it should be remembered that the Aussie economy needs to create between 15 -20k jobs per month just to keep up with new entrants into the labour force. Thus even flat jobs growth will see the unemployment rate continue to rise.

The interesting trend is the divergence between full-time and part-time employment. -53.5k full-time jobs were lost in February, the most since November 1991 whilst 55.6k part-time jobs were added. Year over year full-time employment is now down -0.5% whilst part-time employment is up 3.6%. This is obviously not a good trend if full-time jobs are getting replaced by part-time jobs.

Economists, from both NAB and ANZ raised their unemployment forecasts earlier in the week, not that that means anything, economists themselves are lagging indicators.
 

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Remember when everyone was saying that the US subprime crisis wouldn't affect us down here because, hey, we were decoupled from the US?

I think the following quote fits more or less into this thread:

 
It reminds me of an impending car crash in slow motion, the brakes have been applied, smoke is coming from the screeching tyres and impact is coming..............
 

I did exactly the same and the response from people around me is "I AM AN IDIOT".
Anyway, I hope these people still believe that I am an idoit and keep spending and live their life as if there will be no recession and depression coming. Because if they believe now it will fulfill the prophecy. DEPRESSION!!

Hope we can get out from this crisis
 
Out today, Private Sector Credit Data from the RBA:


  • Private Sector Credit flat in February, up 5.4% over the past year, slowest year over year growth in 15 years.

  • Housing Credit up 0.6% in Feb, up 7.1% year over year, equal slowest pace ever, last time was Jan. 1983

  • Business Credit down -0.6% in Feb, up 5.5% year over year, slowest pace since Dec 2002

  • Other Personal Housing Credit down for fifth straight month, down -6.0% year over year, equal slowest pace ever, last time was May. 1992

Charts and commentary at link below:

Private Sector Credit Growth Hits 15 Year Low
 

Yes, it says it all really. We are in a time-delay capsule. Just watch the US/UK and wait for 6-12 months for the repeat here. It is turning up on our shores, like the plague.
 
Thanks dhukka I must say that the numbers coming out continue to be better than I expected still the trend appears down
 
Yes, it says it all really. We are in a time-delay capsule. Just watch the US/UK and wait for 6-12 months for the repeat here. It is turning up on our shores, like the plague.

See?

KRudd woz right. We must spend, spend, spend MORE and FASTER!

So what are you waiting for? [size=+2]SPEND IT ALL NOW!![/size]

[size=+1]It's not what your country can do for you - it's what YOU can do for your country![/size]

[size=-4]This has been a community announcement by KRuddBank Ltd. Authorized by the Oztralian Laborious Party[/size]
 

It appears the little Aussie consumer was a tad unpatriotic in February:

  • Feb Retail Sales down -2.0%

  • Feb Building Approvals up 7.8%

  • DEEWR Leading Employment index, down for 15 straight months and is accelerating.

  • Aust PMI contracted for 10th straight month

Charts and commentary at link below:

Australian Economic Roundup
 
Could this recession/depression be caused by Bin Liner after all he started 9/11 and the World panicked and then the IR rates came down to get the USA economy moving again and away we went...?
 
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