AUD

[Stormin_Norman]

you make good points.

i guess it will depend on how things calm down after the recent spook in world markets.

it will be interesting to read the RBA's statement that accompanies their rate decision.

 

[ithatheekret]

I think the 25 was written in aways back , this is yeild and the supposed carry trade demise , like a chance to make money will ever stop it .
As I said before , I'm on the Japanese housewives side , you go girls , I'm still typing them in

 

[Kauri]

I think the 25 was written in aways back , this is yeild and the supposed carry trade demise , like a chance to make money will ever stop it .
As I said before , I'm on the Japanese housewives side , you go girls , I'm still typing them in

I'm with you Maj san... just not in such a big way.. the vinocators are getting ready to roll ... Japanese housewives. now there is a story there but not here methinks..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

It will dip but look for sponges

 

[ithatheekret]

Her Maj . looks like she wants to go for a flight through a cloud for a bit of fun.

Could be some schwing .bftt

 

[Kauri]

It will dip but look for sponges

Sponges I am OK with... just don't tell me I need Kleenex!!
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

my limits exits were taken out in a blink @ 9080

back in for schwing , they haven't even got to the mic yet .

I wonder which bank just had to settle ............

 

[Kauri]

my limits exits were taken out in a blink @ 9080

back in for schwing , they haven't even got to the mic yet .

I wonder which bank just had to settle ............

I was taken out for worse than B/E... .. reset just above the lows though.. ..as the only thing I can see that isn't really hawkerish is that he said that global growth was likely to fall below trend, which is subtley changed to his opinion in London in mid January when he said that global growth would return to trend from above trend in previous years.
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Well we're number two and the Kiwis are one up on us , except it's a rate :

 

[ithatheekret]

I don't know what made me do it , must of been that gold suicide plunge , but I bought Skip again , just exited some smaller ones , but it looks protected and that p'd me off .

 

[Kauri]

this Heineken Ashey thingamibob I am playing around with gave a signal to get long a littles whiles back.. am still getting to the bottom of it.. running on my backup comp.. if nought else it has convinced me I am NOT colourblind after all..
5Min chart
Cheers
..........Kauri

PS.
Your Maj... will send you the thing via email later when all goes quiet and you might like to look at it on a comp in the backroom when the markets are quiet.. (between 0600 and 0605..)

 

[ithatheekret]

I think Maj is having mood swing , or that was a big brickwall it just hit 1.9702

hhhhh.... opptions

 

[ithatheekret]

tested support . getting interesting again .

ready for the brawls

 

[Kauri]

Posted earlier chart in the gold thread.. long hot humid night...
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

and not worrying about a typical W3 it seems..
Cheers
.......Kauri

 

[Kauri]

a perfect storm could form where China"s efforts to slow their booming economy start to bite while US and EZ growth slows significantly. This would push commodity prices lower and negatively impact the Australian economy around the time recent rate hikes and fiscal tightening takes hold.
if global growth concerns continue to intensify, currencies with central banks that promote growth will be rewarded and yield advantage will take a back seat. I thunk...

PS is anyone else having trouble with the speed of ASF today???.. since around midnight I have had a lot of trouble loading pages etc?? would post this in a new thread but whenever I try it times out
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Stormin_Norman]

fundamentally we were just at our strongest point i think (in relative economy terms).

the USA in recession was quickly priced into the AUD/USD. now that it has been priced in, the belief that the USA might have been spared a larger recession because of timely government and fed intervention has seen the USD get stronger on all its crossrates.

with the world slowdown likely to effect china on a lag, and therefore our economy on an even further lag - many believe our economic slow down will now more closely mirror china's then the USA's. and with predictions of a chinese slow down occuring over the next 18 months, the medium term outlook for the aussie economy follows that of china.

i think as the USA recovers from recession and we teeter on the edge of one because of china the AUD/USD will become bearish this year. i wouldnt be surprised to see it down to 75/77.

 

[ithatheekret]

PS is anyone else having trouble with the speed of ASF today???.. since around midnight I have had a lot of trouble loading pages etc?? would post this in a new thread but whenever I try it times out
Cheers
..........Kauri

last night everything ground down to a halt , platforms saying no connection , strong ping but !!!
Must have been every Yank and European selling last night , wore a nasty loss on POG $1880.00 ouch , thankfully I never got to see it , made it back on Cable , but fund managers rushing to find cash certainly upset that apple cart .

I suppose they think they're cashed up now . My AUD exits were hit , so busy on Her Maj , I never noticed the plunge until you told me , missed a good drop there . North crashed or something , I was there , but it wasn't .

 

[Kauri]

The AUD/USD has held up well this morning despite some steady and at times heavy selling from US model funds. Traders say that local funds and corporates have been absorbing the selling and have been joined in by Asian and Japanese names as well. Traders say that newspaper reports saying that Australian coal and iron ore miners are about to benefit from a massive price increases with China and Japan are helping to encourage some of the local buying. The reports say that the miners are very close to settling on a price that is nearly double the current price. The Australian newspaper says that if the increases are achieved, Australia"s export revenue from coal and iron ore is set to jump from 42 BLN AUD to more than 70 BLN AUD next year.

 

[Kauri]

wonder if the 5th is in... will watch this larger ??triangle?? to see whether to cut and ...
Cheers
...........Kauri